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We need to play .580 ball to make the playoffs

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We need to play .580 ball to make the playoffs 

Post#1 » by LISTEN2JAZZ » Sun Jan 6, 2008 4:18 pm

In order to reach .500, we'll have to win 29 of our remaining 50 games.

The only teams in the East to win at that rate this year are Boston, Detroit and Orlando. Seven teams in the west have done it as well.

If we have any intentions of making the playoffs, our trades need to be made immediately. And I think in order to become the hottest team in the East, that trade had better bring us an all-star without us sending back Michael Redd. This can't wait until the trade deadline.

I don't remember who said this, but somebody mentioned a management meeting yesterday. Did this happen? I'm surprised we haven't seen any news (such as a firing) yet.
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Post#2 » by paulpressey25 » Sun Jan 6, 2008 4:20 pm

I hate it when people post stats like this.....because they are 100% accurate.....we've dug such a hole, it will be very tough to turn this around. Golden State did it last year......but it is rare.
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Post#3 » by LUKE23 » Sun Jan 6, 2008 4:22 pm

In my opinion, we should let this season be what it may, fire Harris the day the season ends, and then start rebuilding this offseason. I'd much rather have a chance at another top 10 pick in this draft (which is a good one) than to make a bunch of band-aid moves to maybe get us to .500 this season, get owned in the playoffs, and then have a worse pick.

This season is a lost cause. It's all about positioning ourselves to be able to rebuild quickly at this point.
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Post#4 » by Simulack » Sun Jan 6, 2008 4:42 pm

I've been mentally keeping track of what record we would need to hit .500 at the end of the season. I gave up thinking we had any playoff hopes around the end of December.

The window for a "win now" trade is probably shut.

The window for a trade Redd to the Heat for a lottery pick is looking good for us if they think they can still salvage their season. They need to go 33-16 to finish .500.
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Post#5 » by Simulack » Sun Jan 6, 2008 4:45 pm

LUKE23 wrote:In my opinion, we should let this season be what it may, fire Harris the day the season ends, and then start rebuilding this offseason.


That could be costly, Luke. What if trading Redd now would make us worse this season and move us up a few spots in the lottery? Last year the difference between 3 and 5 was Horford vs Brewer and the difference between 6 and 8 was Yi vs Wright. I'm sure you can find even more glaring examples in the past.

If we are rebuilding, it makes a lot more sense to start now. Right now we are on pace for 31 wins. Trade Redd and we might end up with a top 3 pick and a chance at Rose.
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Post#6 » by LUKE23 » Sun Jan 6, 2008 4:48 pm

Simulack wrote:I've been mentally keeping track of what record we would need to hit .500 at the end of the season. I gave up thinking we had any playoff hopes around the end of December.

The window for a "win now" trade is probably shut.

The window for a trade Redd to the Heat for a lottery pick is looking good for us if they think they can still salvage their season. They need to go 33-16 to finish .500.


Problem with that is, if Wade gets anything resembling healthy and they have Redd, they could make a big run and ruin that lottery pick pretty good. If we're trading Redd and the pick is the only thing of substance in the deal, it needs to be top 5. And the Heat have no other assets we would want.

Don't see them as a good trading fit.

I still like the Portland deal for Outlaw/filler/unprotected 2008 pick. I'd do that one at the deadline ASSUMING Portland is out of the playoff chase, which even given their recent success I think they will be.

But that would give them Redd/Roy/Aldridge/Oden core, definitely a title conender within the next couple years. Bucks get an up and coming SF in Outlaw (also a guy who can defend) and two lottery picks in 2008.
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Post#7 » by Simulack » Sun Jan 6, 2008 4:52 pm

The Heat would definitely be a risk but my point was just that they are starting to dig themselves a HUGE hole. A Wright/Pick plus salary filler for Redd trade makes a lot more sense to us (but less to them) than it did a few weeks ago. Since the Heat now have to win at over a .666 clip (which only Detroit and Boston have done in the East), the odds are a lot less likely they make the playoffs even with Redd.

I'd love that Portland trade. Skones suggested Webster/Outlaw/filler for Redd a few weeks ago and I thought it was a great trade for the Bucks. Can't see Portland doing it though.
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Post#8 » by LISTEN2JAZZ » Sun Jan 6, 2008 4:52 pm

If we aren't trying to make the playoffs, I'd like the team blown up now too. The main reason for that, is with Redd you'd have to get into fake injuries and pseudo-intentional losses like we had last season. I don't want to see that again. With a blown up team that features all young guys in the main rotation, they just wouldn't be good enough to win games, so you wouldn't have to resort to sketchiness. You could give Yi/Bogut all the minutes they can handle, ask for them to try and win, and take it as a positive when they do.
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Post#9 » by LUKE23 » Sun Jan 6, 2008 4:55 pm

Simulack wrote:The Heat would definitely be a risk but my point was just that they are starting to dig themselves a HUGE hole. A Wright/Pick plus salary filler for Redd trade makes a lot more sense to us (but less to them) than it did a few weeks ago. Since the Heat now have to win at over a .666 clip (which only Detroit and Boston have done in the East), the odds are a lot less likely they make the playoffs even with Redd.

I'd love that Portland trade. Skones suggested Webster/Outlaw/filler for Redd a few weeks ago and I thought it was a great trade for the Bucks. Can't see Portland doing it though.


If we did the Redd to Miami deal today, for example, I could see the Heat ruining that pick pretty badly. Redd/Wade/Shaq even with a gimpy Shaq could go on a hell of a run, even if they get to 35 wins that destroys our pick. I'm not that high on Dorrell Wright at all.

Portland I think does consider that deal. If all their guys progress as planned you could argue Redd as their FOURTH best player, and gives them a deadeye shooter, something they really don't have currently. While they do value Outlaw, I think they would part with him to land Redd, and they know their pick will be either late lottery or even 14+.
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Post#10 » by LUKE23 » Sun Jan 6, 2008 4:56 pm

adamcz wrote:If we aren't trying to make the playoffs, I'd like the team blown up now too. The main reason for that, is with Redd you'd have to get into fake injuries and pseudo-intentional losses like we had last season. I don't want to see that again. With a blown up team that features all young guys in the main rotation, they just wouldn't be good enough to win games, so you wouldn't have to resort to sketchiness. You could give Yi/Bogut all the minutes they can handle, ask for them to try and win, and take it as a positive when they do.


I see both sides of the argument. If you're trading Redd and getting a 2008 pick back I think you need to be careful. If there isn't a pick involved in the deal I think you can get more liberal in the deal.

If we're trading Redd and the pick is the only thing of value, it has to be high lottery for it to be worth it, IMO.
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Post#11 » by steger_3434 » Sun Jan 6, 2008 4:59 pm

LUKE23 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



If we did the Redd to Miami deal today, for example, I could see the Heat ruining that pick pretty badly. Redd/Wade/Shaq even with a gimpy Shaq could go on a hell of a run, even if they get to 35 wins that destroys our pick. I'm not that high on Dorrell Wright at all.

Portland I think does consider that deal. If all their guys progress as planned you could argue Redd as their FOURTH best player, and gives them a deadeye shooter, something they really don't have currently. While they do value Outlaw, I think they would part with him to land Redd, and they know their pick will be either late lottery or even 14+.


How does Miami getting to 35 wins destroy the pick, but trading REdd to Portland doesn't? Right now Portland has 21 wins. Your telling me that they won't win 14 more games this year without Redd, let alond 14 more with Redd?
yiyiyi wrote:give rockets Redd ,houston give you T-MAC in return .please help rockets!
i dont want see that woman anymore !
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Post#12 » by LUKE23 » Sun Jan 6, 2008 5:00 pm

steger_3434 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



How does Miami getting to 35 wins destroy the pick, but trading REdd to Portland doesn't? Right now Portland has 21 wins. Your telling me that they won't win 14 more games this year without Redd, let alond 14 more with Redd?


Simple. Because in the Heat deal you get nothing else of value, in the Blazer deal you do. I value Outlaw pretty highly.

The Heat have NOTHING else of value other than their pick.
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Post#13 » by steger_3434 » Sun Jan 6, 2008 5:00 pm

Speaking of Portland, why can't our franchise be like there's? They were only bad for a few years and now may have the best young team in the league that is winning right now. Winning while what many believe a top 10 center out of college doesn't even play.
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Post#14 » by Simulack » Sun Jan 6, 2008 5:05 pm

LUKE23 wrote:If we did the Redd to Miami deal today, for example, I could see the Heat ruining that pick pretty badly. Redd/Wade/Shaq even with a gimpy Shaq could go on a hell of a run, even if they get to 35 wins that destroys our pick. I'm not that high on Dorrell Wright at all.

Portland I think does consider that deal. If all their guys progress as planned you could argue Redd as their FOURTH best player, and gives them a deadeye shooter, something they really don't have currently. While they do value Outlaw, I think they would part with him to land Redd, and they know their pick will be either late lottery or even 14+.


35 wins would probably put them at around the 10th pick in the draft. With Wright (although I'm not really high on him either), that is not too bad for Redd but I understand your reluctance. I just think that team has too many injuries waiting to happen and is in too deep of a hole. I don't see a lot of other teams out there willing to give a lottery pick for Redd.

I'd rather have Martlee with Outlaw instead of the pick since I think Portland will make the playoffs (with or without Redd). I just don't see Portland wanting to mess with team chemistry by adding an "alpha dog" like Redd and having to shuffle around people at positions to fit him in.

But I'd do either deal including the 1 with the pick even though I think it won't be a lottery pick. Outlaw is valuable and on a reasonable contract - couple him with a 15/16 type pick and that's good enough for me for Redd.
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Post#15 » by LUKE23 » Sun Jan 6, 2008 5:05 pm

Ok, so lets say the Portland deal does go down. Depending on when we did it, I'd estiimate we'd be in the 4-6 range, Portland would be in the 12-14 range.

Our new core COULD be:

PG: Mo Williams/Charlie Bell
SG: Eric Gordon/Desmond Mason
SF: Travis Outlaw/Bobby Simmons
PF: Yi Jianlian/Charlie Villanueva
C: Andrew Bogut/Roy Hibbert

Upgraded d at the 2 and the 3 spot, and that bench is better than this years. Granted, it's a young team, but it's a team that could grow together. We would be rid of Simmons and Gadz's deals shortly after as well.
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Post#16 » by LISTEN2JAZZ » Sun Jan 6, 2008 5:07 pm

As a very non-specific plan, the middle ground that might please the majority of posters here would be to do two main moves:

1. Trade Redd for a semi-proven wing in the 21-25 age range. This sounds fine in principal, until you actually try to list the players. The good ones (Deng, Iguodala, Smith) can't be had, and the so/so ones (Childress, Wright, Outlaw) might seem like a real letdown/loss of talent. Of course it would depend on which kind of players are available.

2. Trade our 08 lotto pick on draft night for yet another young but semi-proven player. The Clippers did this beautifully by trading the #2 overall for Brand, and the Celtics did this horribly by trading the #6 overall for Telfair.

These two moves together would give us a core of 5 players in their early twenties, which means we aren't waiting 5 more years for them to develop like we would if we get a draft pick for Redd, and use our own draft pick. Of course it all depends on what caliber of players are on the table, but theoretically it should leave us where the Hawks were last year instead of where the Sonics are now.
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Post#17 » by Simulack » Sun Jan 6, 2008 5:10 pm

If if we don't get lucky enough to add Gordon, you could add a lot of other draft picks to that team and it would still be a hell of a lot more entertaining to watch than this Bucks team.

It really makes no sense for us to wait. We have a much better chance to land someone like Gordon if we move Redd now. If we are 9/10, the odds of adding a good player are much lower. And like Adam said, then we don't have to visibly tank and do embarrassing things like fake injuries. Plus our young guys get a chance to gel a bit and play on a team without a guy who commands the ball as much as Redd.

Look how fast Portland turned things around? Odds are slim we get that lucky but lets try next draft rather than waiting until 2009's.
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Post#18 » by LUKE23 » Sun Jan 6, 2008 5:30 pm

Simulack wrote:If if we don't get lucky enough to add Gordon, you could add a lot of other draft picks to that team and it would still be a hell of a lot more entertaining to watch than this Bucks team.

It really makes no sense for us to wait. We have a much better chance to land someone like Gordon if we move Redd now. If we are 9/10, the odds of adding a good player are much lower. And like Adam said, then we don't have to visibly tank and do embarrassing things like fake injuries. Plus our young guys get a chance to gel a bit and play on a team without a guy who commands the ball as much as Redd.

Look how fast Portland turned things around? Odds are slim we get that lucky but lets try next draft rather than waiting until 2009's.


Agreed. The ideal scenario is to trade Redd immediately to a team that is curerntly in lottery standing for a solid young player and their 2008 pick.
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Post#19 » by Wise1 » Sun Jan 6, 2008 5:32 pm

steger_3434 wrote:Speaking of Portland, why can't our franchise be like there's? They were only bad for a few years and now may have the best young team in the league that is winning right now. Winning while what many believe a top 10 center out of college doesn't even play.


1. We don't have Nate McMillen on the sidelines.
2. We don't have the natural athletes that the Blazers have.
3. We don't have a BRAIN on the floor controlling the ball and leading the team.
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Post#20 » by LUKE23 » Sun Jan 6, 2008 5:35 pm

Wise1 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



1. We don't have Nate McMillen on the sidelines.
2. We don't have the natural athletes that the Blazers have.
3. We don't have a BRAIN on the floor controlling the ball and leading the team.


I think he's asking why our management can't have the vision to land the types of players the Blazers have. I don't think he's asking why our current roster can't play like their current roster.

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