The career record most likely to be broken in the next 15 years is the record for 3-pointers, currently held by Reggie Miller at 2,560.
Ray Allen is hot on his heels at 2,071, and the method estimates he has a 97 percent chance. That's only because we are honoring the Bill James rule that no "Favorite Toy" probability can exceed 97 percent. What the method is really saying, in this case, is that Allen will break the record if he isn't injured. Allen's established rate is 198 per season, so even if he cools off a bit with age, he'll break it at some point in 2010-11.
Kobe has alot of records he can break. What surprised me the most is that he has the best chance to break most career turnovers record.
