How good will the Mariners be?

Post #1 » by **PhilipNelsonFan** » Sun Feb 17, 2008 6:17 am

It's a little young for this type of thread, but what's your opinion as the team stands?

Post #2 » by **Basketball Jesus** » Sun Feb 17, 2008 2:03 pm

PECOTA has them last in the AL West. I dunno if that's before or after the Bedard deal, though.

Post #3 » by **Basketball Jesus** » Sun Feb 17, 2008 2:05 pm

I see them struggling to make 80 games. I'll say 80-82.

Bay_Areas_Finest · Post #4 » by **Bay_Areas_Finest** » Sun Feb 17, 2008 4:08 pm

I don't think our offense will be as productive as last season, but the pitching will be better.

I see us getting between 85-90 wins, with a slight chance of getting more than that.

Basketball Jesus wrote:PECOTA has them last in the AL West. I dunno if that's before or after the Bedard deal, though.

PECOTA? What the hell is that?

And did they forget that Oakland and Texas were still in our division? LOL. No way we finish worse than 2nd.

Ex-hippie · Post #5 » by **Ex-hippie** » Sun Feb 17, 2008 5:14 pm

The guys who do the PECOTA projections are pretty smart, but I'm hard pressed to see how this team is worse than Texas or Oakland. Even when you take into account how much we outperformed our Pythagorean expectations, there's still the fact that Oakland dealt away arguably its two most effective players, Haren and Swisher... and that's from a team that wasn't very good in the first place. I don't see how Oakland can win as many as 70 games. Similarly, I don't see how a Texas team that just replaced Mark Texeira with Ben Broussard and Chris Shelton, didn't make any other notable improvements and still doesn't have any pitching, is better than the M's.

With the personnel improvements and hope for Sexson and Lopez to be slightly less bad than last year, I pick the team to repeat last year's 88-74 record. But it will be a more robust 88-74.

P.S. That means I voted for the 80-90 wins option, but I do not endorse the "last year was not a fluke" commentary. Last year was a fluke, but this year's team is better.

Post #6 » by **Bulltalk** » Sun Feb 17, 2008 9:44 pm

I'm in the 80-90 win column for now. There is a *chance* that this starting rotation could click as a unit, that the bullpen could be very good again, even if they don't approach last year.

Let's face it. There are some pretty big IFS with this team when trying to prognosticate about their win total. I dread the scenario where we come close to leading the league in runners left on base, runners left in scoring position. That's my biggest concern now.

Post #7 » by **PhilipNelsonFan** » Mon Feb 18, 2008 9:33 am

hippie wrote:P.S. That means I voted for the 80-90 wins option, but I do not endorse the "last year was not a fluke" commentary. Last year was a fluke, but this year's team is better.

Understood. I don't see this team as significantly better this year, even with the acquisition of Bedard for what amounted to very little in actual production last year. Thus, I feel that a strong season this year helps to validate last year's record.

Ex-hippie · Post #8 » by **Ex-hippie** » Tue Feb 19, 2008 3:57 am

Well, I checked out the full PECOTA projections. Not only do they pick the M's for last in the division, they have them to finish 73-89, only four games ahead of the team with the worst record in baseball (Baltimore). You have to figure that if it hadn't been for the Bedard trade, they'd be picking the M's to be the worst team in the majors. The Mariners are also picked to finish with one more win than San Francisco, St. Louis and Washington, and two more wins than Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Which is, with all due respect to the hardworking folks at BP, crap.

P.S. It says it's updated as of 2/15, so this is after the Bedard trade.

Post #9 » by **Sweezo** » Tue Feb 19, 2008 7:47 am

I have them pegged for 80-82 wins...so I decided to be nice and pick the "over" rather than the "under" option.

Post #10 » by **Basketball Jesus** » Tue Feb 19, 2008 1:34 pm

hippie wrote:Well, I checked out the full PECOTA projections. Not only do they pick the M's for last in the division, they have them to finish 73-89, only four games ahead of the team with the worst record in baseball (Baltimore). You have to figure that if it hadn't been for the Bedard trade, they'd be picking the M's to be the worst team in the majors. The Mariners are also picked to finish with one more win than San Francisco, St. Louis and Washington, and two more wins than Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Which is, with all due respect to the hardworking folks at BP, crap.

P.S. It says it's updated as of 2/15, so this is after the Bedard trade.

I haven

Ex-hippie · Post #11 » by **Ex-hippie** » Tue Feb 19, 2008 7:03 pm

Basketball Jesus wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

I haven