Bobby's Future

[Slamm Goodbody]

We have a lot of free agents coming up at the end of this season, some of which could be retained barring retirement (Pettite, Mussina), some probable castoffs (Farnsworth, Pavano [lol]), and two big question marks in Giambi and Abreu.

Abreu needs to be retained provided his asking price isn't astronomical in length. He's 34, not over the hill by OF standards; leads the team in RBIs this season; has proven his durability (averaging 157 game played since 1998); and, issues with the wall aside, is a pretty good right fielder with a cannon for an arm. That sort of consistency cannot be ignored when you're looking to the future. He's obviously not going to hit 35 homers for us any time soon and his speed has declined from his 30/40 2004 campaign, but his patience and OBP are more important for our general team philosophy than power numbers. As an added bonus, Abreu has reached base safely in 25 games at Fenway Park, including all 20 he’s played with the Yankees. He knows how to hit in Boston, a point that can't be discounted when you think about all the big series we've played there in recent years.

Right field has been a position in flux since Paulie retired, filled with me-first mercenaries (Sheff, Mondesi) and scrubs (Karim Garcia). Having a team player out there has been an improvement for both team chemistry and fluidity in our offense. We may be high on Jackson or Gardner as players in general, but with Damon and Matsui not getting any younger or healthier, they'll have slots to plug into in the future when they're ready for the major leagues. The consistency he's shown over his career makes an Abreu extension a safe investment for this team going forward.

Really, the biggest question for Abreu is not his ability, but rather how much he'll demand on the open market, and I'm interested to see what other people think his worth is to this team. Will he want more than 5 years? What's the cap on how much we offer him per year? Thoughts?

[Jitpal]

I highly doubt he returns. He is horrible in RF, wall aside. He constantly lets balls drop in front of him that are catchable by most OFers. His average and OBP are down. He can't really steal bases anymore. Anything more than a 1 or 2 year deal would be a waste. With the crop of OFers on the open market this year, I would be shocked if some team doesn't offer him 4 years. Plus at this point we would get two draft picks for him and we have Nady to fill the void in RF(his natural position). Another factor is Cano has to bat higher in the lineup, preferably 3rd. So Damon/Jeter/Cano/Arod or Damon/Jeter/Abreu/Arod. I'll take a hot Cano any day. -Jitpal

[Slamm Goodbody]

I think your concerns are definitely valid Jitpal and you highlight a lot of variables in this. His average and OBP numbers are down a notch this year, but I would argue that would give us a chance to swoop in for a two year deal with two option years (just throwing that out there). I wouldn't say he's a horrible RFer though - he makes most routine plays he's supposed to make outside of ones near the wall, he's fast enough to cover some ground, but he's simply not a dazzling fielder with highlight reel catches.

As to the Nady issue - I do like Nady as a player and theoretically as our RFer, but I'll have to see how he produces this year before I make judgment that he's a lock to start that position next season. It does allow us more flexibility and leverage in our negotiations with Bobby though, regardless, which is a definite bonus.

I think you highlighted a concern of mine in your post though - a HOT Cano batting third is nice, but he is pretty streaky. When he's running cold and we take Bobby out of the lineup, who does that leave to hit in the 3 hole? On this present roster, especially if we don't resign Giambi, not much. This could change if we get into the mix for Tex (which also makes Bobby expendable), but that's a hypothetical.

Bottom line for me - I wouldn't pull out all the stops and lock him into a 7 year deal or anything crazy like that, but 2-3 years with two team option years from us at what our other outfielders make would be OK with me. I most certainly do NOT want to get into a bidding war for his services, either. Honestly, I was hoping for big things from Tabata this season so that he could project as our RFer in a year or two and we could cut Abreu loose, but with the trade obviously that goes out the window. I'd like some proven consistency in the immediate future out there though so we can draft and develop some position players since our farm is already very deep in pitching.

[Jitpal]

I think your concerns are definitely valid Jitpal and you highlight a lot of variables in this. His average and OBP numbers are down a notch this year, but I would argue that would give us a chance to swoop in for a two year deal with two option years (just throwing that out there). I wouldn't say he's a horrible RFer though - he makes most routine plays he's supposed to make outside of ones near the wall, he's fast enough to cover some ground, but he's simply not a dazzling fielder with highlight reel catches.

As to the Nady issue - I do like Nady as a player and theoretically as our RFer, but I'll have to see how he produces this year before I make judgment that he's a lock to start that position next season. It does allow us more flexibility and leverage in our negotiations with Bobby though, regardless, which is a definite bonus.

I think you highlighted a concern of mine in your post though - a HOT Cano batting third is nice, but he is pretty streaky. When he's running cold and we take Bobby out of the lineup, who does that leave to hit in the 3 hole? On this present roster, especially if we don't resign Giambi, not much. This could change if we get into the mix for Tex (which also makes Bobby expendable), but that's a hypothetical.

Bottom line for me - I wouldn't pull out all the stops and lock him into a 7 year deal or anything crazy like that, but 2-3 years with two team option years from us at what our other outfielders make would be OK with me. I most certainly do NOT want to get into a bidding war for his services, either. Honestly, I was hoping for big things from Tabata this season so that he could project as our RFer in a year or two and we could cut Abreu loose, but with the trade obviously that goes out the window. I'd like some proven consistency in the immediate future out there though so we can draft and develop some position players since our farm is already very deep in pitching.

The stats aren't just down this year, they have been trending down the past couple years. Even counting the streak he went on when he joined the Yankees he was down that year from the year before. Then the year after even lower and this year even lower. Arod was having a year for the history books and Abreu's stats were down. Average, OBP and OPS all trending down for the past 3 years. One thing I will say, he was actually one of our better post season hitters the past two years. This would lower his value in terms of contract but also lower his value in terms of on field play. If he trends downwards even further, which is certainly possible because he will be 35 next year then what. You get stuck with his deal and I don't see Abreu as the type of guy who would accept a platoon or bench role. Something about his personality just doesn't sit right with me, I think he would cause a stink. Plus, don't discount the draft picks which are very valuable. Imagine flipping Abreu into Hughes and Joba because that seems to be the M.O. of Cashman and Oppenheimer.

Obviously if Nady doesn't perform he is probably gone but he is arbitration eligible. Which means he is cheap and while we cut a ton of dollars the Yankees supposedly want to get closer to 150-160 million compared to the 200-220 that they are right now. Figure they sign CC, bring back Moose and Andy, plus some first baseman. Where does Abreu's 12 or so million year fit? The other thing, you create a solid outfield glut. Damon, Matsui, Melky, Nady and Abreu. If they don't deal Gardner then you have him too. Melky isn't going anywhere because no one else can play center. Matsui should be mostly a DH but he has to be in the mix. Damon in LF. Nady in RF. Then you have Gardner off the bench and hopefully Austin Jackson knocking on the door. That's a whole lot of OFers. You can't have 6 OFers on the roster especially because those guys can't do anything except OF and DH. Although Nady can play 1B.

I feel like next season is make or break for Cano. The yankees need to see what they have in Cano. He is either a very good defensive 2B and a streaky, sometimes amazing, hitter or he is a superstar at the 2B position and will anchor the 3 slot in the lineup for years to come. I don't see how you can do that with Abreu. -Jitpal

[cmaff051]

I feel like next season is make or break for Cano. The yankees need to see what they have in Cano. He is either a very good defensive 2B and a streaky, sometimes amazing, hitter or he is a superstar at the 2B position and will anchor the 3 slot in the lineup for years to come. l

He was just signed to an extension. He's going nowhere.

Does it really matter when he hits? As long as his average and OPS are up where they should be at the end of the year (.800+ OPS), it is fine with me.

[Slamm Goodbody]

The draft pick issue is a nice bonus for us, no doubt, but I'm of the "one in the hand worth two in the bush" mindset - I'd rather not bank on an unknown with a two to three year return after the draft (barring a flameout by some drafted bust) and go with inferior options in RF at the expense of being competitive now. I love what Cash has been doing with the system turning expendable players into draft picks, but a system is only as good as the complementary pieces signed in free agency to plug holes with. MLB drafts are much more of a crapshoot than NBA or NFL drafts, it's just harder to project players that aren't pitchers with A+ stuff. For every Joba that works out for us, you have an Eric Duncan or a Drew Henson.

As for the outfield glut, don't forget Damon is going to be a free agent after next season, Melky hasn't proven to be a superstar outfielder by any stretch (and Jackson potentially can replace him at CF and move him to the bench), Matsui is one more knee surgery away from being a permanent DH - that's far from consistency, regardless of the abundance of OFers. I think Matsui is coming up on free agency after next year too but am not positive. You can never have too many talents and I think we'll be able to juggle the OF issue as we have in the past. This isn't the same as the situation with Sheff and Bobby because there are clear-cut second-tier players/damaged goods in the potential OF glut.

Finally, the salary issues: they don't matter. I'm all for reducing payroll while keeping the team in contention, but I don't see the Yankees letting 12 mil a year stopping them from signing CC, Tex, Moose, and Andy next year. Keep in mind Pavano slots out where Moose's salary next year would slot in, as does Giambi and Tex hypothetically (and even then there will probably be more money left over from Giambi's huge deal). If we get Abreu it will, in theory, be on our terms and we'll be saving money off his huge deal right now, so there are more savings right there. If Nady bombs and gets a tight deal in arbitration, you can't high-five over saving money and kicking Abreu to the curb - we need production from the corner outfielders, no exceptions. I still have occasional nightmares over Rondell White's stay in left field.