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Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers?

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Who will disappoint in 2008-2009?

Danny Granger
1
4%
Mike Dunleavy
2
8%
Rasho Nesterovic
2
8%
TJ Ford
2
8%
Jarrett Jack
3
12%
Roy Hibbert
3
12%
Brandon Rush
4
16%
Jeff Foster
0
No votes
Troy Murphy
2
8%
Other
6
24%
 
Total votes: 25

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Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#1 » by count55 » Fri Aug 1, 2008 1:55 pm

The other side of the "biggest surprise" coin is biggest disappointment. In other words, "Who won't live up to our general expectations?"

Last year, in my mind, it was clearly Jermaine O'Neal. I had hoped he would return healthy and provide a full-season's contribution commensurate with the first half of the 06-07 campaign. Regrettably, we all saw what happened.

So, now you need to let us know who you think we might be shaking our heads sadly at as the season draws to a close. This could be due to injury or just not getting it done.

Whaddaya think & why?
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#2 » by count55 » Fri Aug 1, 2008 2:05 pm

I'll be honest, I toyed with not posting this one. This is a little more negativity than I like to think about, but I thought it was necessary to balance the surprise poll. The thing to keep in mind is that disappointment could be a lot more about expectations than anything the guy did wrong (just as the surprise category is). I don't want to run any of these guys down, and I'd really like them all to succeed, but we know that just never happens.

If you think about the guys most likely to disappoint, it's Danny, Junior, and TJ. Again, not because of their flaws, but because they have the highest expectations. The same could be true of Brandon Rush, though I think that everyone (or most) recognize that he has a number of veterans standing in his way for PT.

I, however, voted for Rasho Nesterovic. I think the realistic expectation for him would be that he could grab the starting 5 slot. He's big, smart, and experienced. However, I could easily see him losing his spot in the rotation to Roy Hibbert. I could also see him getting squeezed by the growing desire to play Jeff & Murph together. Therefore, I'm projecting him to end up as only trade fodder by midseason, with little playing time and a lot of DNP-CD's.

(Though an honest person might say that I'm resisting voting for any of the guys in the first paragraph simply because I don't want to contemplate what that would mean.)
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#3 » by mizzoupacers » Fri Aug 1, 2008 2:58 pm

Personally, I voted "other" in honor of Shawne Williams. When we drafted him, I was all for it--I was convinced he was a lottery-pick talent who came out too early, felt like the Pacers could afford to be patient with him since we already had Granger, and just generally felt like Shawne was a great "sleeper" pick and that we'd snookered the rest of the league.

Now I think it's not going to end well, at least not for the Pacers. Williams just has too many strikes against him, and with Granger meeting all expectations and Dunleavy surpassing expectations, the team just doesn't have that big a need for Williams any more anyway. Oh well...

For the fan base as a whole, I'd probably say the likely candidate is T.J. Ford. A lot is being expected of him; if he gets hurt or just doesn't mesh with the team for whatever reason, there are going to be some real disappointed Pacers fans.

Runner-up: Brandon Rush. I don't think I'm going to feel disappointed myself, but it seems like an awful lot of P's fans are expecting too much from him right off the bat. I watched Rush play about a zillion times in college, and from what I saw there are two possibilities to explain where his game is at: (1) he was still only about 50-60 percent healthy last year after the previous summer's leg injury, or (2) he has a few things to work on before he's ready to be consistently good at the NBA level. The first is possible, but the second is, in my mind, more likely. Don't get me wrong, I think in time he's going to be a solid option at the wings for us, but IMO he is going to need some time to adapt to the NBA.
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#4 » by count55 » Fri Aug 1, 2008 3:51 pm

I have no expectations for Shawne, and I'd be moderately surprised if anyone had significant expectations for him at this point, so that's why I didn't list him separately. Over the course of his career, he's been a big disappointment, but I was thinking in terms of looking at the season as of today.
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#5 » by StephenJackson » Fri Aug 1, 2008 4:03 pm

I voted for Nesterovic. I think Pacers fans have been way too high on this guy. He's good to have on the team, but he's nothing more than your average center. Don't expect anymore than 10 points and 5 boards from this guy.
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#6 » by count55 » Fri Aug 1, 2008 4:07 pm

That would actually be a pleasant surprise for me.
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#7 » by fienX420 » Fri Aug 1, 2008 4:47 pm

i think i have pretty realistic (even though optimistic) expectations for the players on our roster. i don't expect nesterovic to be better than jeff foster (nobody is better than jeff foster). i think the biggest risk for disappointment is larry bird. i was really astonished the way he came out and publicly put down shawne williams and jamaal tinsley (and apparently encourages such behavior from the coach as well). devaluing players you are looking to trade just does not make any sense. if he can't make something positive happen in spite of this misstep, then i think he is going to look pretty bad (at least in my eyes).
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#8 » by 23artest23 » Fri Aug 1, 2008 5:02 pm

Great post on devaluing our players. I mentioned this a while back and a few people shot that down. Over the last week or two, I've seen more people coming around to that fact it makes no sense to trash our players in the public eye.

As for biggest disappointment, I'm split between T.J. Ford and Brandon Rush. I saw in another topic where people were rating T.J. as a 90 or so in the newest 2K game and I find that to absolutely ridiculous. That is not quite as direct as I would like but if people are expecting that kind of play that they believe him to be a 90, they are setting themselves up for disappointment. Brandon Rush comes to mind because I did not even find him to be the best player on his team at times, we traded Bayless for him and he looks as though he could compete well right away IMO, and I cannot imagine him taking over the SG spot at some point during the season as some would like to think. I'm split between the 2 and will have cast my vote later on this.
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#9 » by xxSnEaKyPxx » Fri Aug 1, 2008 5:29 pm

I'm going to go with the surprise pick in Mike Dunleavy. I don't think he is going to be bad, but I don't think he is the player everyone seems to think he is. Last year he was great on offense for us, I think a lot of that has to do with JO and Tinsley being out, not taking anything away from him, he played great. The fact is though he never had the best defender on him as Granger usually had #1, and we have TJ Ford going to be taking some shots - more than Tinsley or JO took from the bench. I think Rush will be taking some of his minutes, not a lot, but more than Kareem or Daniels ever took from him. I have never been impressed with his defense. I see some people posting that he is better than Danny Granger which I don't understand. I think he will be good, again. I don't think he will be as good as most people expect him to be though.
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#10 » by MillerTime101 » Fri Aug 1, 2008 5:32 pm

This thread is actually a positive fore me, it was really hard to choose out of that list. I dont think any of the players well really disappoint but it all depends on your expectations. Rasho is an expiring contract so he cannot disappoint me, im not expecting huge numbers from Rush and HIbbert just solid play which I think I will get.

TJ Ford has never disappointed me in the years I have watched him play in Toronto. Granger and Dunleavy are unlikely candidates aswell, well maybe Granger is more unlikely then Dunleavy but I doubt either one takes a big step back.

You pretty much know what Foster Murphy and Jack are going to give you so I cant justify them either, im going to go with Sean Williams by default.
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#11 » by xxSnEaKyPxx » Fri Aug 1, 2008 5:44 pm

I agree MillerTime, it was positive in the sense that it was hard to chose. I went with Dunleavy by default because of all the players around him.
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#12 » by jarrettjackfan » Fri Aug 1, 2008 5:46 pm

I'll say my vote.

Marquis Daniels.
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#13 » by greenway84 » Fri Aug 1, 2008 8:11 pm

I vote Tinsley. For not rehabing his injuries, losing weight, seeing a therapist, and finding jesus. Oh and establishing a jumpshot. But seriously i have a bad feeling about Dunleavy I love this gy and I was and am against trading him, BUT I have a feeling the honeymoon is over and reality is about to et in.
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#14 » by JarrettJackSG » Fri Aug 1, 2008 9:25 pm

Dunleavy does his damage as a spot up shooter and a player in transition. We will run more, and he will get more open looks because of TJ.

Granger will be fine. It's his team and Ford's team now. Unless he really bombs and has a Deng type season, he'll be fine.

Rush will disappoint. Bayless will outperform him so hard and the Pacers will get blasted for trading away a future super star for a role player and chump change.
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#15 » by xxSnEaKyPxx » Fri Aug 1, 2008 9:43 pm

Am I the only one who never sees a player like Gilbert Arenas or Allen Iverson winning a Championship?

How many Championships do Tayshaun Prince, James Posey, and Bruce Bowen have again?
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#16 » by JarrettJackSG » Fri Aug 1, 2008 11:30 pm

What kind of teammates do Prince have (he's a starter too), Posey, and Bowen have when they won championships?

What kind of supporting cast does AI and Gilbert have...and how well do they work with him?
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#17 » by Bucky O'Hare » Sat Aug 2, 2008 12:21 am

I voted for Jack. I just don't think he's as good as a lot of Pacer fans are expecting him to be. He's a decent scorer, but his point guard skills leave a lot to be desired, and he's not quite the shut-down defender he's being made out to be. Solid back-up, but I've seen quite a few posters suggest that he can compete for the starting point guard job, which I find ridiculous.
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#18 » by Kuq_e_Zi91 » Sat Aug 2, 2008 12:28 am

darkflashfox wrote:What kind of teammates do Prince have (he's a starter too), Posey, and Bowen have when they won championships?

What kind of supporting cast does AI and Gilbert have...and how well do they work with him?



AI and Gilbert both have supporting casts of All Stars. AI in Melo and last year the DPOY Camby. Gil has Butler and Jamison. The problem with AI and Gil is that they focus too much on the offensive end and don't play any defense. In AI case, he gambles too much for the steal rather than just playing solid D. In Gilberts case, I just don't think he wants to play defense. They're both really flashy show off type of guards. The comparison with Bayless is definitely there, and I agree with it. I'd rather have a Prince, Bowen, Posey than an AI or Arenas. Personality has a lot to do with it also.
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#19 » by xxSnEaKyPxx » Sat Aug 2, 2008 1:47 am

darkflashfox wrote:What kind of teammates do Prince have (he's a starter too), Posey, and Bowen have when they won championships?

What kind of supporting cast does AI and Gilbert have...and how well do they work with him?


Exactly my point. Players like Bayless don't work well with teams, they do their own thing and look good doing it. But when it comes down to it, they care more about their stats. You won't see a team led by AI or Arenas win a Championship, you see teams with players like Bowen, Posey, and Prince win the Championship literally every year.

AI and Gilbert both have very good supporting teams, but their teams are better off without them - like when the Wizards got better when Arenas was out. Thats just how it is.
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Re: Who will be the biggest disappointment for this yrs' Pacers? 

Post#20 » by JarrettJackSG » Sat Aug 2, 2008 4:22 am

Are you crazy?

Lets look at AI's supporting cast:

Melo: (No defense, pure offense, volume shooter, plays with the ball)
Camby: (Low offense, awesome defense, plays off the ball)
Martin: (Washed up player, low offense, good defense)
Freaking Anthony Carter/Chucky Atkins: (low offense, medicore defense)

Are you telling me that's a good team around AI? There's no 3 point threat, there is no larger guard to cover the SG while AI takes the PG, there is no good coach to keep the ego's in line. AI's rep as being selfish as a player now is over-stated, and for god's sake, when you build a team properly around him (2001 Sixers), he can do great things.

Now lets look at Gilbert. He has never had a dominant, true low post bigman. Neither has AI (unless you count the washed up Chris Webber). He has a roster with good defense, but a stagnant offense. I mean, they were playing Haywood and Darius Songalia as their big men. I mean god, they even had Kwame.

They have good supporting teams? Butler is a transition player who can score and penetrate and get to the lane. Jamison is a perimeter 4 who has a good but not great low post game, and is not so good on defense.

AI-Melo is a big 2, and Washington has a weak big 3. The teams they have are built very poorly, Washington would kill to have a legit big, and Denver would also kill to have a legit big. Maybe if you put Camby and Jamison together, then you'd have a legit big.

You want to talk about scoring PG's that win titles? How about Tony Parker? He's a scoring PG. Watch the Spurs (as they are the other team I follow), he's not the best defender in the world, and he really can't contest shots at all due to his lack of elevation, but he's a ball hawk, which is what AI is. Gilbert, not so much. I'll give you that he has no defense, but his supporting cast is horrid. They are definitely trotting out average to below average players at the 2 and the 5, just like Ai doesn't have a legit 2 or a legit 4.

Posey, Bowen, and Prince are products of the system the play in. Posey is a 4th, maybe even 5th option, and is not good on a bad team (IE: Miami). Bowen won't thrive in an unstructured system. Prince is a legit All-Star, but he plays with 3 other all stars. Bowen does as well. Posey does as well.

Who's the role player on Washington, or Denver? They have none. The 2001 Sixers had a couple, like Bell. They had 2 great bigs in Mutumbo and McKie, and Snow was a big enough 1 to guard 2.


I mean, sure, it's great to get a Posey, Bowen, or Prince. I would take them if I had a good team that was contending. But the Pacers aren't contending. They aren't a veteran team needing a role player to provide the dirty work. Hell, we have him, his name is Jeff Foster. If I need to develop talent, and I could draft a Bowen/Posey or a AI/Gilbert as a rookie, I'm going with AI/Gilbert. We are bad team that needs good prospects.

You are telling me that if Bayless developed in AI/Gilbert, we won't get a good deal for them? They are worth more and can fetch more than a Posey or Bowen.
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