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final regular season standings:

1. INDIANA (1.00)
2. ORLANDO (2.25)
3. SACRAMENTO (2.50)
4. PORTLAND (3.33)
5. KENTUCKY (5.00)
6. DENVER (5.33)
7. TORONTO (6.33)
8. PHOENIX (6.50)
9. BOSTON (7.75)
10. NEW YORK (9.00)

Therefore, using the bye approach for teams 1-6, the playoffs should break down as follows. 3rd round head to head writeups will be due Wednesday at midnight EST with 3rd round judging to be completed by Saturday at midnight EST. Good luck everyone.


ROUND ONE PLAYOFFS
Toronto v. New York
Phoenix v. Boston

Round Two
INDIANA v. BOSTON
PORTLAND v. KENTUCKY

SACRAMENTO v. DENVER
ORLANDO v. TORONTO

3rd Round
KENTUCKY v. INDIANA
DENVER v. ORLANDO

Toronto Raptors VS. New York Knicks


C Shaquille O'Neal vs. Brad Miller

20 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG, 0.4 SPG, 60% FG, All NBA First Team

Easy squash, Shaquille O'Neal will make mincemeat out of Brad Miller, post him up consistently on every possession, and pass out of the double team to Ray Allen or Shane Battier for an open look. Look for Chris Bosh to out-wit Emeka Okafor on the baseline for an easy cut to the basket. Shaq and Brad Miller are both adept passers but Shaq's dominance in strength will be the knicks' downfall in the frontcourt. On defence, Shaq will guard Emeka Okafor, as Brad Miller plays in the high post, by which, Bosh will be out there to guard.


PF Chris Bosh vs. Emeka Okafor

22.6 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 1.3 BPG, 49.6 FG%, 8.6 FTA, 78.5 FT%, All-Star

Chris Bosh will give Emeka Okafor fits driving to the rim, blowing past him with his terrific first step and get to the free throw line. Bosh is also a underrated passer so by all means, Shaq will find his way to the basketball. Okafor's main strength is his interior defence, and here is where Bosh has the advance. Bosh has range out to 20 feet and with a simple pump fake, Bosh can blow past Okafor in the high post, or he can simply drain his patented 18-footer. Bosh will most likely guard Brad Miller out in the high post on D.

SF Shane Battier vs. Carmelo Anthony

9.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 1.1 BPG, NBA All-Defence Second Team

Terrific advantage for our team, Battier will stay on Carmelo Anthony for the entire duration of the game 'Melo is in. Seeing as Carmelo is the Knicks' best wing player, Battier is the perfect defender to put on him. Expect Anthony to resume his low-efficiency play and shoot at his patented low percentages.

SG Ray Allen vs. Anthony Parker

25.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.4 SPG, 45.4 FG%, 41.2 3PT%, 90.3 FT%, All-Star

Interesting matchup here, I respect Anthony Parker as a player but there's no way he can keep Ray Allen from exploding out on the perimeter with his trademark long bombs and especially after open looks from Shaq and Bosh. Anthony Parker's best scoring move is that corner 3ball and a curling jumper off a screen. The definite advantage is there but Ray Allen is just on a totally different level as a player.

PG Andre Miller vs. Chris Paul

17.1 PPG, 6.9 APG, 1.3 SPG, .492 FG%, .772 FT%

Okay, no one would say Andre Miller is the better player here, but Chris Paul is a terrific penetrator, but with Shaq and Bosh, our interior defence is one of the best in the league. Plus the fact that Andre Miller is no slouch on defence, it should be very difficult for Chris Paul to make his easy baskets as well as finding shooters on a team where they lack outside shooters. Devin Harris will be asked to provide at least 22-26 minutes a game in this series in order to defend Chris Paul, as he has arguably the best footspeed to keep up with CP3.


Bench Rotation:

PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Chris Wilcox
PF/C David Lee vs. Boris Diaw
SF Andre Iguodala vs Grant Hill / Bobby Simmons
SG Mike Dunleavy Jr. vs. Ben Gordon
PG Devin Harris vs. Luke Ridnour

My bench rotation is one of the most efficient and defensively adept teams in this league, they will be called upon to spell the starters in situations where we need fresh legs. Harris will be the primary backup PG asked upon to contain Chris Paul for a limited time. Mike Dunleavy has a huge height advantage over Ben Gordon so he should be able to contribute properly. Iguodala will hasve his hands tied with the wily veteran Grant Hill but look for Iguodala to be a main ball handler when Harris is on the court to defend Chris Paul. My main frontcourt players will dominate minutes played so Lee and Aldridge wouldnt get over 15 minutes a game. Mr. Big Shot will play a few minutes in the game depending on the situation. Overall, my efficiency and role-specific players will be able to take down the New York Knicks with ease, after all, I have home court advantage.



My team's main strength is all-around, especially in efficiency. We possess the deadliest 3pt shooter in this era as well as an upgraded version of the twin towers with Shaq and Bosh complementing each other perfectly. We also have some of the best on-ball defenders in Battier and Harris. The Knicks have issues with scoring in the frontcourt and perhaps meets the worst possible opponent in me, a team that possesses both SHAQ -and- Bosh.


Raptors in 5

Heh, I'll trash your entire plan by playing a different starting 5. *cackles evilly*

I'll do the write-up tomorrow. This should be interesting.

tsherkin wrote:Heh, I'll trash your entire plan by playing a different starting 5. *cackles evilly*

I'll do the write-up tomorrow. This should be interesting.

Gasp! oh noes!

Looking forward to it.


*REBUTTAL POST*

Suns vs Celtics


PG Deron Willimas vs Jason Kidd
SG Vince Carter vs Allen Iverson
SF Loul Deng vs Stephon Jackson
PF Carlos Boozer vs Amare Stoudamire
C Mehmet Okur vs Marcus Camby

1st big Andrew Bogut vs Adris Biedrins
6th man Micheal Redd vs Caron Butler
7th man Richard Jefferson vs J Rich
2nd big Troy Murphy vs Kendrick Perkins


The Suns vs Celtics matchup is interesting in that its a matchup of 2 teams useing a PF/PG combo and athletic SG/SFs. This series comes down to execution and tempo as the Celtics want to play at a faster pace while the Suns are a slower pace.

I believe The Suns have the adv at PG, SG, SF and the C positions. The Suns also have better spacing with there C combo. With Okur and Bogut Camby will be brought out of the paint if he is going to guard the Suns Cs and that will hurt his help defense.

Kidd and AI are not a def backcourt that strikes fear into VC and Willimas. With Camby being out of position to help VC and Jefferson will be able to drive and wreck havoc.

Amare vs Boozer is a interesting matchup as neither play defense and both want to score. The biggest differance is that the Suns have Bogut as another bigman to put a body on him. The Suns can also double off of Kidd and force him to shoot 3s.

For as great as Kidd is on defense hes still not going to be able to contain Williams so that he can be as effective. I realy dont see how having AI shooting 42% and having to guard VC or Williams is going to be a positive much less an adv for the Celtics.

The other weakness I see in the Celtics is the bench as it is inferior at PG, C and it has no PF.


The Suns are running a pick & roll offense with a shooter and slasher combo and a having a C that can shoot from outside. Its a balanced offense and a sound defense and typical of Suns teams has a bench that is second to none.

Lineup change:

Camby/Biedrins
Amare/Perkins
Butler/Jackson
Richardson/Iverson
Kidd/Duhon/Stuckey

vs.

PG Deron Willimas 18.8ppg 10.5apg
SG Vince Carter 25.2ppg 4.1apg 6.0rpg
SF Loul Deng 18.8ppg 7.1rpg
PF Carlos Boozer 20.0ppg 11.9rpg
C Mehmet Okur 17.6ppg 7.2rpg

bench
PG Felton
SG Redd
SF Jefferson
PF Murphy
C Bogut
C Darko

I've decided to switch the starting lineup to ensure that the Celtics exploit the Suns defense. Amar'e is an absolute beast, and this way he gets more touches and the offense revolves around him. Butler's slashing ability, solid defense and mid range game add some more versatility to this starting lineup, and Richardson is in the lineup because he's a quick athlete that can keep up with Carter and he hits 3s (he should get a bunch of open looks with those doubles on Amar'e) with ease on offense. Camby will likely guard Boozer on defense, and on offense will be asked to simply be able to convert on open shots around the high post. Kidd is going to facilitate the offense and will play a huge role on Deron defensively. Iverson off the bench is great for some instant offense, and a guy who can take advantage of whoever's guarding him, whether it be Carter/Redd.

Quite simply, the Celtics will win this 7 game series because they are much much much better defensively than the Suns, and the Suns won't be able to handle Amar'e down low. Shooters will play a much larger role in this series, because Amar'e will likely be doubled, so the Suns can be sure to see more of J-Rich/SJax/Mike Miller. Amar'e will also be getting to the line a lot, where at 81% he's pretty strong.

So to sum it up, the Celtics offense will be able to blow apart the Suns, the Celtics defense should be enough to keep the Suns in check, and Amar'e Stoudemire should have an insane series with Boozer/Okur/Bogut/Murphy as the Suns main big men. This series should be done in 5, maximum 6. Firepower offensively isn't enough to get you past the first round of the playoffs IMO.

TORONTO v. NEW YORK: NY has fallen into disrepair again (tsherkin has to pull out); apparently Isiah's brother pissed on the revival plans . . . so, since success or failure starts at the top, I have to vote for Toronto.

PHOENIX v. BOSTON

Big man scoring: Both sides have a superb scorer (Boozer and Amare). Okur gives a better second option than Camby. ADV PHO

Wing/Point scoring: Certainly the change from Iverson and Stephen Jackson is going to help Boston tremendously but while Butler and Richardson are good, Carter and Deng have a slight edge. Add to that Deron is a much better shooter than Jason Kidd and it's again ADV PHO

Playmaking: Deron and Jason Kidd are both terrific. Carter and Butler are adequate secondary playmakers though both teams are much more reliant on their PGs than most teams in this ATL. Slight edge Jason Kidd and BOS

Rebounding: Boozer and Camby are good rebounders, Amare is average and Okur a bit below average. Phoenix's wings are more active rebounders but Jason Kidd is the best at PG since Fat Lever or even Oscar. ADV BOS

Defense: Both teams weakness. Jason Kidd is still good, Deron and Deng are solid, and Camby's help defense is great but there are a lot of poor defenders out there. Boston has some defenders on their bench; Phoenix doesn't, but if Iverson and Beidrins are getting the run Boston's bench defense will also be bad. Camby will have to work hard to cover a lot of missed assignments but he and Kidd are at least the start of a team defense. ADV BOS

Bench: Explosive scoring off both wing benches; Phoenix's scorers put the ball in the basket more consistently. Adequate benches for both elsewhere. ADV PHO

OVERALL: Phoenix has the better offense, Boston the better defense. This series is very very close and will go to whoever has the hot hand. I would guess that the one who steps up is Carlos Boozer and Phoenix will eke it out.

I think i may have to vote now. I was hoping to be able to wait until rebuttals but i don't think that I'll have the time. I think that i'm going to even up the series here here with Boston's superior defense being the deciding factor for me.

Boston : Defense and not too shabby offense.

Toronto: Easy

Congratulations to Toronto and Boston who move into our Playoffs. The first round is as follows and writeups are due by Thursday at midnight EST:


INDIANA v. BOSTON
PORTLAND v. KENTUCKY

SACRAMENTO v. DENVER
ORLANDO v. TORONTO

^I think you mean Indiana v. Boston

so we post the writeups in this thread?

Yes, post writeups and votes in this thread for each round clear up to finals.

(Sorry Bryant!)

I really don't have the time I'd like to have, so I'll post a quick initial writeup first, and possibly a 2nd part later. Best of luck Cellar, and sincerely may the best team win.

NUGGETS V. KINGS

The Denver Nuggets will make a lineup change, and will start Rashard Lewis at PF, with Tim Duncan at C, which will force Brendan Haywood to the bench.

General Overview
The Kings are a extremely well built team, one of my favorites since the beginning. A solid defensive core, with extremely gifted offensive players from the 2-4 positions. We'll admit we don't have the flash, or the BIG names when compared to the Kings or even most teams in this league, but we are a team that can take advantage of mis-matches, play arguably the best defense in the entire league (with the Blazers) and be lethal offensively with the always fundamental play from down low, Tim Duncan, and absolutely elite perimeter play from both McGrady and Arenas (both of whom have made the All-NBA 2nd team) during this era. Defense, rebounding, and the ability to take advantage of the disadvantages will be huge themes throughout this series.

Defensively, the Kings are solid, anchored by Ben Wallace in the middle, albeit overrated, and past his prime at this point, but effective nonetheless. Then Billups on the perimeter and LeBron who shows flashes of being a great defender. This season he has BECOME a terrific defender, but in previous years, all he's shown is inconsistency when talking about his effort on the defensive end. Gasol is underrated defensively, always has been, but never more than slightly above average. JJ, is in the same boat, that he's an average defender that's capable of stepping up when asked of him. But the Nuggets are clearly the better defensive team, we are anchored by the BEST defensive anchor in the entire league, in Tim Duncan, have another elite All-NBA defender in the backcourt in Hinrich that's capable of defending not only the top PG's in the game, but the elite two guards as well. Did I mention, we also have Prince in the starting lineup, ANOTHER All-NBA defender, that's proven on the largest of stages and is a proven champion. Off the bench we also have Brendan Haywood, one of the best big man in the entire league when talking about defending the post, Alonzo Mourning who averages nearly 3 BLOCKS PER GAME in 20 minutes per game. Unlike what penbeast mentioned when evaluating the Nuggets, the fact that Zo is so productive in limited minutes, makes him PERFECT as a backup in this league. It's not about the names, it's about the productivity.

We aren't going to stop LeBron, no one is going to, it's an impossible task, but it's proven with a defined system, you can take LeBron out of his elements (see San Antonio, Boston). Now, look at what made them stop Bron, each had terrific defenders at the wing position, Bowen on the Spurs and Pierce/Posey for the Celtics. Most importantly? An amazing defensive anchor, on the Spurs, Tim Duncan the BEST anchor in the league, and on the Celtics, Kevin Garnett, who's arguably the 2nd best anchor in the league. Good man defenders, with MAJOR help defense is the key against LeBron. He'll still get his stats, but trying to make him as inefficient as possible is the only hope we have against him.

Just for kicks and giggles, in head to head matchups between LeBron and Prince, Bron averages:

23.4 points per game, 5.8 rebounds per game, 5.8 assists per game, 1.4 steals per game, 2.8 turnovers per game, on .411 FG%, .278 three%, and only 7.4 FTA.

(Over a course of 20 games, obviously I acknowledge the whooping Bron gave on the Pistons in the playoffs, so take it for what it's worth). But nonetheless, with Duncan in the background, Haywood/Zo on the floor as well during stretches. Hinrich reaching from the perimeter, and Prince, arguably a Top 2-3 perimeter defender in the game, LeBron would have to work as hard as he's ever had to not only score, but get into the lane and finish near the basket.

Then someone might say, HEY, don't forget the Kings have JJ in the backcourt too, how do we try to limit him too? Well, he's another one of those players you don't "shut down," but one that can be limited. We have options in the backcourt, with the traditional two guard match-up in McGrady guarding Johnson, or even using Hinrich who is already a self proclaimed All-NBA defender. McGrady in 06-07, was actually an above average defender, his length was bothersome and his athleticism allowed him to stay with his ,sigh where has that T-Mac gone and McGrady was actually 10th in DEFENSIVE WIN SHARES for the season. Obviously a little inflated due to playing with Rockets/Van Gundy, it shows an idea of the type of defender he can be. What makes it more interesting, is the Hinrich-Johnson matchup.

Considering we are both using the 06-07 season for both players, here are JJ's stats when facing Hinrich throughout that stretch:

17 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists on 9-21 (.429 shooting)
29 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists on 12-27 (.444 shootng)
9 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists on 2-12 (. 167 shooting)
21 points, 5 rebounds, 0 assists on 7-18 (.389 shooting)

Total: 19.0 points per game, 4.0 rebounds per game, 3.2 assists per game on .384 shooting.
Career: 20.6 points per game, 4.1 rebounds per game, 4.6 assists per game on .408 shooting.

And considering Billups isn't the type to burn you with his quickness, and his post up game gets immediately eliminated, it's conceivable that McGrady could effectively to an extent guard Billups.

Gasol, the third and final scorer. So for the two best scorers, the Nuggets have 2 All-NBA Defenders to counter, then the third best scorer for the Kings, what do we have to counter? Tim Duncan, in case somebody didn't know, ANOTHER All-NBA defender, and one of the greatest of ALL TIME. Last year Duncan who was hobbled faced Gasol in the playoffs, and it resulted in.

Game 1: 19 points on 9-16 shooting
Game 2: 10 points on 4-9 shooting
Game 3: 15 points on 7-18 shooting
Game 4: 10 points on 4-7 shooting
Game 5: 12 points on 5-15 shooting

Total: 13.2 points per game on .446 shooting. And that was again a hobbled Duncan.

And now, how do the Nuggets top scorers compared to whom they're likely to be matched up with:

Offensively, Duncan in the past has experienced considerably good success against both Wallace/Gasol. Against Wallace, Duncan averaged:

19.0 points per game, 12.0 rebounds per game, 3.0 assists per game on .508 shooting.

Slightly lesser points, but his efficiency (for his career) is actually higher than normal, unlike the matchups with Hinrich/JJ, Gasol/Duncan and Prince/LBJ.

McGrady has always played well against LeBron, not really any statistics from previous seasons to back it up SINCE the past couple of seasons, McGrady has been injured in their recent meetings, and or/LeBron also missed a few games. They were both healthy in two games in this era in one game which McGrady had 34 points on 48%, and another game where had 25 points, but on poor shooting, 36%. The sample size is too small for this era, but it'd be expected that LeBron wouldn't do much to affect McGrady's game, considering he never really has.

I think the biggest mis-match in this series will be Arenas off the bench, he'll still get his 34 minutes per game, and in the past has absolutely killed Billups in their head to head matchups:

25.4 points per game, 3.8 rebounds per game, 5.7 assists per game on .450 FG% and .370 three%

He's in the peak of his career, and one of the top 2-3 scorers in the NBA, Billups doesn't have the quickness to stay with Arenas (who averaged 10 FTA attempts per game) and it's only been proven more and more when they faced off in this era.

Shard won't get any more minutes than intended in the original writeup, will just be given the start to emphasize and take advantage of Gasol, and the fact that Wallace is not an offensive threat. Shard is one of the best shooters in the entire league, leading the league this year and one of the best in previous years, he'll force Gasol away from the basket, and create much better spacing around Duncan in the paint. They faced off just two days ago in which Shard shot 50% from the field, had 16 points and knocked down FOUR three pointers. Gasol won't be able to stay with him on the perimeter, and takes away his ability to be there in rebounding position, which overall makes up for the rebounding disadvantage from Haywood to Lewis. Putting Wallace on Lewis would be even worse, he'd probably do a better job, but it greatly limits Wallace's main attribute, his rebounding, and still not enough to completely take away the threat of Rashard being able to score from the outside.

OVERALL THOUGHTS
The Kings are a great team, but one that can be exploited. The Nuggets are clearly better defensively with three All-NBA defenders to cover their top three scorers and have shown they've experienced a good deal of success against them in decent sized samples. The Nuggets also have the option of doubling LeBron with Rashard possibly, considering again Ben Wallace is a offensive liability and a pathetic offensive player. Our game-plan to stop their main threats offensively is as good as any, and have the personnel to alter not only their offensive games, but all rounded games.

And with the defensive game-plan installed, and an offensive game-plan that the Kings cannot exploit with Duncan being positioned in the low post and elite perimeter scorers in McGrady/Arenas and top notch shooters in Hinrich/Shard/Prince in the game, the spacing will be suffocating, and the ability to create from the perimeter AND the post will be unmatched. There's no weakness in the Nuggets game-plan, we play tough hard man defense with excellent help from all positions and have dangerous scoring from nearly every position with the best post player in the entire league. Rebounding, passing, and spacing are all strengths of the Nuggets, and again the fact that the we have the defenders and gameplan to stop their scorers, while our primary scorers should have their way and not be altered too much from their games, the Nuggets should pull it out in a tough series that should go the full 7 game distance.

Kentucky Colonels v. Portland Trailblazers

Baller has put together a terrific defensive team with great offensive numbers. While the defense is very real, his great defenders have particular strengths that are countered by the offensive skills of the Kentucky players they will usually be matched up against. And, while his offensive players are great individually, his top three starters all need to drive close to the basket to be effective with Sam Cassell the main outside threat and Manu Ginobli off the bench as the only player with the ability to spread a defense.

Kentucky will provide help on DWade drives to the basket; Portland doesn't have the outside threats to keep us from packing in the defense and we have GREAT frontline help defenders in Garnett, Kirilenko, and Ilgauskas. Our defensive stars, DPOY Kevin Garnett and AK47 match up against two of their big three scorers while the weak shooting Chandler lets us help Martin/Ellis/Parker against DWade. On the other end, we have great offensive versatility with all of our starters having good range as well as good post/slashing games. Their best defenders, Artest and Chandler, are forced by the height of Wade and Brand to mark our 4th and 5th options and neither are great shotblockers (though Chandler is solid). We can spread the floor for our superior jump shooting or to open lanes which will be clogged by Portland's "4 men trying to go to the hole" offense. With both sides having great frontline defense and big clutch performers, that will be the key.

Now, let's look at the main matchups:

C Zydrunas Ilgauskas v. Tyson Chandler. A very even matchup on paper. Big Z is taller and more skilled with his ability to score from the high post keeping his counterpart from hanging down low to get defensive rebounds and block shots. Tyson is quicker and more athletic, best at doing just that . . .hanging down low to get rebounds and block shots. We will look to Z to keep Chandler honest defensively whereas Ilgauskas will be able to roam and provide shotblocking help against all Portland's low post scorers with his long armed 7'3 presence since Chandler couldn't score 10 ppg even with Chris Paul feeding him, much less on a team with shoot first guards (people do play off Chandler against NO, thus the gaudy fg% from putbacks and free shots whereas Ilgauskas is Clevelands 2nd/3rd option). On the other hand, if Chandler is playing honest defense, Z's offensive edge is lessened as our #4 option so, unless Portland tries to play help defense with Chandler, I rate this EVEN.

PF Kevin Garnett v. Elton Brand. Kevin Garnett's season last year is the greatest single player impact on a franchise in NBA history. On a team that basically only upgraded it's 3rd scoring option (Ray Allen) from one of the worst in the NBA and that traded one of the better centers in the league to get him (Al Jefferson), Garnett led the Celtics from worst to first, taking the team to the NBA title . . . mainly with his focus on team play and defense. This season even rates well above DWade's great 2006 season where, with Shaq, great things were expected from the 2005 playoff team. Elton Brand, on the other hand, while a very nice individual player on both ends, has put up gaudy stats on bad teams and is basically a post-up player. This year (2008), finally on a good team, Philly has played better without him. Garnett was DPOY, he deserved MVP despite Kobe's also having a MVPworthy season. EDGE KENTUCKY

SF Andre Kirilenko v. Ron Artest. Artest isn't big enough to guard Garnett at 6'5 nor is Wade able to guard the 6'9 Kirilenko. This means Artest's main strength, man defense, will be spent guarding our #5 option (though still dangerous if left alone at 15ppg). On the other hand, Artest has always been a selfish offensive player, demanding and holding the ball to go one on one while not being terribly efficient. Kirilenko was the other 1st team All-Defensive forward with excellent man defense, especially against Artest who is also a post-up scorer. And, Kirilenko adds a third shotblocking threat next to Garnett and Big Z, leading the league in total blocks (a tenth of a percentage point behind Marcus Camby for b/g). Both are terrific defenders and adequate offensive players, but Kirilenko is easily the better HELP defender and Artest is far more likely to force the offense against this type of defense. EDGE KENTUCKY

SG Kevin Martin v. Dwyane Wade. Wade was great in 2006! He hold the edge here both offensively and defensively (though not a great defender, he is good and Martin is only average). However, Wade is yet another player who made his living close to the basket with an inconsistent outside shot. If Wade and Artest can beat us shooting 20 foot jumpers, so be it, however our defense will be geared to stopping Portland's drive to the basket/post-up offense . . . which is pretty much it's whole game when Manu is on the bench. Martin will swap over to Cassell when Monta Ellis is in the game and Big Z and Kirilenko will slide over to shut down Wade's patented drives forcing him to pass off and make Chandler/Artest/Cassell beat us. Wade will still get his points, but Kentucky is a great defensive help frontline, they aren't 2006 Dallas. On the other end, Kevin Martin is one of our main offensive options with his great outside shooting and ability to drive and draw the foul as well. With his TSP over .600, Wade will have to work his butt off at both ends of the floor. EDGE PORTLAND

PG Tony Parker v. Sam Cassell. Sam Cassell is a nice role player. But he is way outclassed by the 2007 Finals MVP who shoots over .075 percent higher from the floor and has been the playmaker on the most consistent championship team of his generation. Parker is a better scorer, better defender, more efficient (even from 3), and just a significant level up from Sam Cassell. EDGE KENTUCKY

cutting to the playoff 8 man rotation:

Monta Ellis v. Manu Ginobli. Manu is the one outside threat on the Portland team (Rajun Rondo is the other Portland guard . . .mmm, no). A terrific player, but Ellis outscored him, shot better, played more aggressive defense, and roughly matched him in rebounds and assists (5/4 v. 4.8/4.5). Both will be big assets for their team but I have to give the edge to Manu and his big game experience. EDGE PORTLAND

Gerard Wallace v. Lamar Odom. Odom is the better scorer, though Wallace at 18 ppg on .500+shooting is very good. Wallace is the better defender though Odom is quite capable (when focused). Odom has a rebounding edge but not a big one if as a PF v. a SF postionally. I'd give this to Wallace whose game I like better but objectively it's a very close call. EVEN

Al Jefferson v. Jermaine O'Neal/PJ Brown. Will Jermaine show up? He only played 51 games due to injuries in 2006 and his 2007/2008 seasons were poor. If so, he's a solid player with good defense and capable of scoring though he is in love with his bad mid-post jumper. However, Al Jeff is a much more consistent and efficient scorer, even at his young age, plus a better rebounder, and you can count on him every game.

Deep bench: Nene/Hedu Turkoglu/Mo Williams v. Josh Smith/PJ Brown/Rondo. Big man depth, great outside shooting and playmaking v. terrific defenders. Kentucky has the edge in versatility and more great 3 point shooting in the clutch; Portland adds more tough defenders with limited offense.

Portland has DWade, who needs to dominate this series to win . . . despite having relatively little outside shooting to spread the floor and facing great frontline help defenders in addition to his man. Manu Ginobli is a top reserve. Otherwise, Kentucky has a more versatile attack with every player in our top 8 able to score and all our starters with good shooting range as well as excellent skills close to the basket. We have a big edge with Garnett and Parker over Brand and Cassell plus a superior bench as well as fitting together better in a team offense (and defense).

It is no secret that of the title winners this decade (SAx3, LAx2, Detroit, Miami, Boston) the team with Shaq as the most unstoppable low post presence in the league has won three times. But look at the other 5 winners. All have featured a lot of outside shooting and balanced attacks. LA also featured a lot of outside shooters to go with Shaq (Kobe, Fisher, Fox, etc.) Even the Miami team had Jason Williams and James Posey to go with Wade and Shaq. A lack of outside shooters in this caliber of a league allows defenses to pack down on your inside scorers. That is a killer for a team with championship hopes. This will be a great series but we have too many ways to win for the more limited Portland squad.

Portland Trailblazers v. Kentucky Colonels

There is one area that is more important than any other in this series: Guard Play

2006 Finals MVP Wade vs. 2008 Kevin Martin (missed playoffs) is a huge matchup. There is simply no way Kevin Martin, a mediocre defender at best, can stop Wade, who carried his Heat to a title and was the best player on the gold-medal winning Team USA. Martin, 6'7 and a rail thin 185 pounds with a short wingspan, will get absolutely abused by Wade, at 210+ pounds, quick, strong, aggressive, athletic, and able to get to the rim at will. Outside of Martin, who can even contain Wade? If Martin is subbed out, Kentucky has no outside shooting. Monta Ellis makes up for his fundamentally poor defense with his athleticism, but he's also smaller than Martin at maybe 175 pounds. Tony Parker is the best defensive guard on the Colonels and I'm assuming he'll be on Wade when Ginobili is in the game, but he's another 175 pounder who lacks the strength to hope to contain Wade.

Continuing to look at the guard play, our other featured guard is multiple-champ and gold medalist Manu Ginobili. Cassell is our starting point guard, but he will only see about 18-20 minutes a game while Ginobili and Wade do the heavy lifting. Perhaps I should have been more clear about that because it really changes the matchup with Parker and Martin featured against Wade and Ginobili. When Ginobili, a strong and skilled player at about 210 pounds, is in at SG, Martin and Ellis will have the same problems they had with Wade. Ginobili is a serious load for any defender because he can score in so many ways. The Colonel's guards, maxing out at 185, will be overpowered and ground down through the entirety of this series.

Another reason this team is a perfect fit for Manu and Wade: Wade gets almost half of his offense off the pick and roll while Ginobili gets about a third of his off the pick and roll. Elton Brand, Jermaine O'Neal, and Lamar Odom are all excellent pick and roll partners for either of these guards and Cassell is very good running the pick and roll as well. We boast three sets of players who are expert at tried and true bread and butter.

Lets not forget about three time champ Sam Cassell either. Sam I Am is a tough, deadly mid-range scorer who is a tremendous leader and locker room presence. His leadership will be invaluable. He is a wily veteran and a pesky defender who can give it his all for 18-20 minutes a game. He was masterful running the pick and roll with Brand in '06 and they're back together, in their primes again. To be clear, I absolutely agree that Cassell v. Parker is advantage Parker, but '06 Cassell was really good and will be a problem, and Cassell won't really play that many minutes compared to Ginobili.

On the criticism that Portland has relatively little outside shooting: Kentucky has one rotation player who is a three point threat in Kevin Martin. Martin and Turkoglu (who doesn't appear to be getting any minutes), their two outside shooters, are also below average defenders. Portland has Wade, who shot 38% in the 2006 finals, Artest (38% on 1.5 makes per game), Cassell (37%), and most importantly, Ginobili at over 40% on 2 makes per game. Even with Martin, Portland has more outside shooters than Kentucky and at least two three point threats on the floor at all times.

On the defensive end, we know what Wade is capable of. He is a truly elite defender on the biggest stages. He was the best player on the floor for team USA last summer, has been selected to an all-defense team, and played out of his mind defense in the 2006 playoffs. For much of his time, Wade will be on Parker. Parker is a tremendous talent and he is a special player, but Wade's a very active defender who can really move his feet, block shots, and hawk the ball for quick points the other way. Ginobili is another very aggressive defender who can hawk the ball for some quick points as well. Going up against these two on defense would be a chaotic, frustrating nightmare for any backcourt.

Another important thing to remember: Martin, Parker, and Ellis will have to guard Wade and Ginobili for the majority of the game on the other end, expending a lot of energy against the vastly stronger Portland duo. How much will they have left in the tank if they give good effort on D?

Overall, the Colonels have some very nice offensive players in their guard rotation. Parker is the only nice defender and the other two are average at best. Both Wade and Ginobili are overwhelmingly talented offensive forces and they're both very good defenders as well. While Parker and Ginobili could be considered equal players in this era, Wade is simply on another level while Ellis and Martin are clearly a few rungs below Parker and Ginobili. From start to finish, guard play favors the Blazers.



Bigs:

Kentucky's front line is anchored by Kevin Garnett, an excellent two way player and a tremendous defender. I'm assuming that he'll spend most of his time on Elton Brand, a 2nd team All-NBA player who scored 25 points per game on 53% shooting, who can score in the post or away from the basket. 2006 Elton Brand is more than a handful for any defender and Brand plays very nice defense as well. This match up is certainly not cut and dried, especially when considering the following exceptional forward defenders who are part of our rotation that Portland can put on Garnett:
Elton Brand, Jermaine O'Neal, Lamar Odom, Josh Smith, Ron Artest.
This will be a very, very tough series for Garnett because he will, of course, be charged with helping his overwhelmed guards on Ginobili and Wade, while he's on Brand, Odom, or even Smith.

Another big matchup of nice complimentary players is at center. Chandler is an expert low post defender with more than enough athleticism to get out on Z or stop him down low. While Z is a more skilled player, Chandler is a much more athletic player who is a superior defender and rebounder (1st in REB). 2006 Brand is an ideal compliment to Chandler down low and Tyson will be able to beat his man (Z) down the floor on every possession.

2006 Jermaine is quite different than Chandler, he's still a solid rebounder and defender. O'Neal is obviously more gifted offensively and will be in a perfect role as a complimentary player while at the tail of his prime. As a backup, he's a luxury to bring in at PF or C because he can do just about anything. The other big man who figures in our rotation is Lamar Odom, a current sixth man of the year candidate who can also do anything on the floor. He's a tremendous rebounder to go along with his nice court vision, passing, scoring ability, and defense. Odom in the high post with Ginobili and Wade at his wings is a dream come true. Josh Smith is the final player in my nine-man rotation who should see most of his minutes at SF, but is obviously a very capable PF who is a super athletic defender that is sure to give Garnett problems.

Al Jefferson is Kentucky's primary backup big man. What do we all know about Al Jefferson? In any season from this era, Jefferson's defense is well below average. He is a very poor post defender who would be easily exploited by any offensive option Portland has in the post. Jefferson is offensively very talented, but it's not enough to make up for his lack of defense against Portland's plethora of two-way players.

The last spot is SF, where Ron Artest faces off against Andrei Kirilenko. Kirilenko posted very impressive stats through 2006. After that, he experienced a significant drop off. What happened? Kirilenko was moved to SF to make room for Boozer. Andrei Kirilenko next to Kevin Garnett might look good on paper, but it is not a very good pairing because Kirilenko does not play well as a SF.
An excerpt from Kelly Dwyer's Inside the NBA:

Kirilenko is not a small forward, but he's been shoe-horned into that position ever since Boozer returned from the injured list late in 2005-06. Kirilenko can guard small forwards with the best of them, but he can't roam for blocks and steals while having to pay attention to a sweet-shooting wing some 25 feet from the basket. And on offense, his suspect ball-handling and iffy outside shooting makes him a rough watch.

Ron Artest is a natural SF with a versatile offensive game and truly fierce defense. Kirilenko is a natural PF or tweener with a very suspect shot. He will be virtually ineffective on offense as a SF, even though he'll still be good on Artest or Smith on defense. An ineffective offensive SF means Artest can *gulp* help on defense. Artest's greatest strength is as an absolutely lock down man defender, but his ability to get in the passing lanes and strip ball handlers will be tremendous if he's not forced to guard the opponent's best player.

The bigs matchup is not as clear as the guards matchup because the Colonels have the best player of the bunch. Still, there is a considerable drop off after Garnett with one player who is playing a position that he has struggled in and a skilled yet lumbering center. The Blazers will control the boards with Chandler as a dominant rebounder, Brand, Odom, and O'Neal as very good rebounders, and guards who also rebound well. Due to the Blazers significant advantage after Garnett (and Brand was right there with him in '06), and because they go deeper with better players, I believe that the Blazers have an advantage in this department as well, especially when defense and rebounding are considered.


Another big advantage the Blazers have in this series is that they are not forced to play any defensively poor players. The Colonels have players who can be exploited on defense and their only two outside shooters are poor defenders. Kevin Garnett is a tremendous defensive anchor and Kirilenko is gifted, even at SF, but the Blazers boast a perimeter DPOY in Artest as well as Chandler, Brand, Smith, O'Neal, Wade, Ginobili, Odom, and even Bynum, Rondo, and Brown off their deep bench. Defensively, it's like Kevin Garnett vs. at least seven very good defenders, and a defensive front line of Artest/Smith/Odom/Brand/Chandler/O'Neal is pretty wicked.

The perimeter oriented Colonels have a very nice team, but they simply can't overcome the Blazers superior offensive toughness, defense, rebounding, and depth. Again, Dwyane Wade vs. whoever the Colonels put on him should be a pretty brutal match up and pretty much everybody around Wade is offensively dangerous as well.

Basically, Sabas's writeup comes down to 2 major points.

A. DWade and their other guards are 200 pound beasts that will abuse our 185 lb weaklings. Other than DWade, this is pretty laughable (Sam Cassell "pounding" on Monta Ellis?) Wade will give Kevin Martin trouble with his strength and would be able to go to the hoop . . . .if we didn't have great help defense up front. Stopping a Dwyane Wade is a team effort, he will get his points, we just have to make him work for them. At the other end, though, Martin has not had trouble getting off his shot either from outside or in the lane against even the best, most physical defenders in the league despite defenses keyed up to stop him as a team. Parker, Martin and Ellis are as solid a defensive trio as Wade, Ginobili, and an aging Alien . . .and as a trio they are very close offensively. And we ARE setting up our team to stop Wade . . . we are willing to risk the likes of Tyson Chandler, Ron Artest, Jermaine O'Neal, and Josh Smith "taking over" the game; they cannot risk leaving Ilgauskas, Al Jefferson, Kirilenko, and Wallace (Brand and Garnett demand coverage), all of these four are more efficient than their counterparts and (except Kirilenko) more explosive too. Portland has some great defenders but several are inefficient, relatively low basketball IQ offensive players.

B. Portland is a good shooting offensive team and Kentucky is not appreciably better. This is the key to the series. Kentucky is a better shooting team pretty much 1-12; and many of Portland's defensive athletes are guys who take a lot of shots but are inefficient.

(1) DWade v. Tony Parker. Portland apparently plans to use DWade as their primary PG with Ginobli on the wing. This helps with their shooting problems but Wade isn't a natural point and even with Miami's desperately bad PG situation the last couple of years, Pat Riley knew better. I love Wade, but he's a shooter who does not set up the offense well except when creating on a drive with high turnovers to his high assists (below the 2/1 ratio you need from a PG, Tony Parker's is a bit over 2.2). As for shooting, if this series comes down to 07 Parker or 06 Wade consistently hitting the 15-20 footer, just wrap up the win and hand it to me now. As for 3 pointers, Wade may have his 38% in a very few attempts in the finals but for the year 2006, he shot only .174 from3!

(2) Ginobli v. Kevin Martin. Ginobli is a fine outside shooter at .461/401 but Martin is just as good at .456/.402 scoring more points with a higher true shooting percentage despite not having Tim Duncan/Tony Parker to draw doubleteams (Brad Miller/Ron Artest just isn't comparable). And, using Ginobili forces Wade to the point using more of his energy in a less efficient manner.

(3) Sam Cassell v. Monta Ellis. Sabas boasts of Cassell's midrange shot as his bread and butter, but it is Ellis who has possibly the most accurate midrange J in the league (he or Rip Hamilton) and the numbers back this up . . . .531 to .443 for Cassell. Cassell did shoot better from 3 (making less than 1 a game) but his true shooting percentage is still .055 lower!

(4) Ron Artest v. Andre Kirilenko. After all the brags about Ron Artest being a 250 pound low post monster of a SF, now apparently 1st team All-Def AK47 can't cover him because he's a long range shooter? He isn't. He's a SF who likes to post up or slash, whose career fg% is .422 (and whose cherry picked season still barely makes the .450 mark), a guy who angered his coach enough to dump him (for the 3rd time in his career) because he thought he should be the focal point of the offense instead of focusing on defense. Now, he can't post the much taller Kirilenko successfully whereas Kirilenko (the more efficient shooter though our 5th option) is good enough as a ballhandler, outside shooter, and offensive player to keep Artest focused which is all we ask. (you do admittedly lose shots/stats when your team adds Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams to your lineup though Jerry Sloan has said Kirilenko is a more natural SF . . . but what does he know?)

(5)Elton Brand v. Kevin Garnett. Brand does hold his own statistically against the DPOY. But he got his numbers on a career of playing for weak Clipper (and Bull) teams. Garnett had sick numbers in Minnesota but successfully transitioned to being a team player for the most improved team in NBA HISTORY. And Garnett has far more range and ballhandling than Brand.

(6)Josh Smith v. Gerald Wallace. Another Artest style player with great physical tools and highlights defense who thinks/acts like he's all-world offensively . . . but generates a high share of bonehead plays and poor shots (if he matures, look out though!). He's another .450 shooter v. Gerald Wallace's .502 with more scoring.

(7)Lamar Odom v. Hedo Turkoglu. Portland uses an offense defense tandem at backup forward, we do too except with all our superior shooters, we tend to use Wallace more but though Odom is a fine shooter, Hedo was otherwordly. Odom was demoted to 6th man, Hedo played at an All-Star level.

(8) Tyson Chandler v. Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Chandler is extremely efficient; in large part because he rarely shoots anything but putbacks and open dunks/layups when his defender is playing help defense. Yet despite having Chris Paul feeding him, he can't get to 10 ppg. Big Z was the second option on NBA finalist Cleveland and in addition to his inside game, has a consistent jumpshot that can extend the high post.

(9) Jermaine O'Neal v. Al Jefferson. Even if O'Neal is fully healthy, he's one of the least efficient scoring bigs in the league due to his penchant for taking bad jumpers. Like Josh Smith, he makes poor offensive decisions (PLEASE play pick and roll with JO and JSmooth). His mediocre .472fg% is his highest since 2004 whereas Al Jefferson is one of the outstanding offensive bigs in the league with Duncan/Shaq/Amare shooting over .500 while getting 20/10 a game. And, if O'Neal is banged up, as he is about half the time, the backup center is aging PJ Brown (v. Nene as our 3rd stringer)!

So, one through nine, Kentucky has the better shooters at virtually every lineup position (Ron Artest is the only Portland player with superior range/shooting . . . if you consider Artest shooting a lot an advantage). Portland relies on DWade getting to the hole, Kentucky will limit that with our big superdefensive frontline of Ilgauskas/Garnett/Kirilenko helping out Parker/KMart/Ellis on Wade and with Wade facing this stacked defense, having to bring the ball up, initiating the offense, and forced to work defensively agaisnt 20ppg scorers Parker/KMart/Ellis (remember, in basketball you have to play both ends), we think we can keep him from dominating this series. Then our balance, deepth, and superior shooting will win out.

Sabas goes on:

Re: KEEPER ATL PLAYOFFS ROUND ONE -- Writeups due TH midnight
by SabasRevenge! on Thu Jan 22, 2009 6:04 pm

In response to point A, Wade is obviously a very physical player and the Colonels admit that Wade will abuse guards like Kevin Martin.

. . . if left one on one; and Martin will get off his shot against Wade or Ginobili fairly easily; especially without the doubles he regularly sees. This matchup favors Wade but not by a huge amount. Martin is today's Reggie Miller, an incredibly efficient player with great athleticism and outside shooting who can also go to the hole with the best; and his 3" height advantage is more key than Wade's 25 lb weight advantage for a guy who won't be posting up with all these bigs inside.

The Colonels make no mention of Manu Ginobili and his athletic 210 pound frame on players like Monta Ellis and Kevin Martin. Ginobili gets to the line at an incredible rate,
Less than Kevin Martin actually, who, despite his slender frame, plays more minutes and goes to the line more than Manu . . . thus his higher true shooting percentage

Again, Wade and Ginobili being checked by three <185lb guards is a defensive nightmare for the Colonels
Monta Ellis is actually a more physical defender than Manu or Cassell, similar to Wade with a bit more defensive intensity (Wade rests a bit considering how much he works on offense).
and I don't think their bigs will stay out of foul trouble for long as Wade and Ginobili both draw A TON of fouls.
As do Martin and Parker; and Portland's bigs are the more hotheaded players, particularly Artest, Smith, and JO.

The Colonels mention how they are setting up their team to stop Wade, but they make no mention of either Elton Brand or Manu Ginobili, two immensely talented and efficient offensive players. Both Elton and Manu got strong MVP consideration in their seasons - that's quite a big three.
Correct. We expect DPOY Kevin Garnett to handle Brand one on one while we mark Manu as their only outside threat and Kirilenko and Ilgauskas help double Wade's drives with their longarmed shotblocking (AK47 led the league in blocks, remember, and Portland is saying they are deliberately minimizing Artest's offensive role . . . though how Ron's ego takes that is questionable).

guys like Artest, Josh Smith, Jermaine, and Odom will focus on rebounding, defense, and taking advantage of carrying a lighter load on offense. Portland's defensively elite players won't need to take many shots.

In response to point B, outside of Hedo Turkoglu and Kevin Martin, both of whom play very suspect defense, Kentucky has no real outside shooting. They have players with nice mid-range games in Parker, Ellis, Garnett, and Ilguaskas
A weakness for Portland outside of Cassell and Ginobili
, but they are a limited outside shooting team. The Blazers hope to see lots of Martin and Hedo because their defense will be so easily exploited and they will have defenders like Ron Artest, Josh Smith, Dwyane Wade, and Manu Ginobili covering them.
Wade and Ginobili are not elite defenders; Parker and Ellis are rough equivalents . . . and Martin isn't far behind an aging Sam Cassell. Both teams have solid but not spectacular guard defense

The other fallacy in point B is that outside shooting is THE key to the series. Kentucky admits that their strategy is to stop Wade, which means they must make up for their defensively inferior guards, yet the key to the series isn't stopping Wade, it's outside shooting. Two very important keys to this series will be defense and rebounding, which Portland offers in droves, as opposed to Kentucky having two stand out defensive starters and one off the bench while offering only Garnett as an excellent rebounder, in addition to Jefferson off the bench, who is famously a pretty serious defensive liability.
Let's compare. Best defender on the floor . . . DPOY Kevin Garnett. Second best defender (considering their roles . . . which both are basically help defenders since they are both lesser options according to Portland's own writeup) 1st team All-Defense and league shotblocking leader Andre Kirilenko. For that matter, Big Z is a better help defender than Tyson Chandler though Chandler is a better rebounder and Kirilenko is a better rebounder than Artest so the front line rebounding is pretty equal. Kentucky has better team defense in its starting five than Portland's starters . . . even considering Manu as a starter; and Wallace and Ellis as our 6th/7th options are better than Cassell/Odom and a good match for Cassell/Smith or Cassell/O'Neal. Only our 8th man, reserve center Al Jefferson is at a disadvantage and his offense is so superior to that of O'Neal (if he is healthy/PJ Brown is not) that it more than compensates.

The problem with Kentucky is that they have many players who are good either offensively or defensively, but oftentimes not both.
Kentucky has Kevin Martin who is mainly offense in it's top 7, plus Al Jeff at #8. Portland has one dimensional Tyson Chandler in its top 8, plus the inefficient though prone to shooting a lot offensive likes of Ron Artest/Josh Smith/Jermaine O'Neal . . . these are not plusses compared to our two way players like Ilgauskas, Kirilenko, Ellis, and Gerald Wallace who are excellent BOTH ways.
There are weakness to be exploited on both sides of the ball, such as playing off of Gerald Wallace and Andrei Kirilenko
Kirilenko, like most euro bigs, is a solid midrange shooter
or attacking Jefferson, Martin, and Turkoglu on the other end
attacking with the likes of Tyson Chandler? who Al Jeff will mainly be playing; and Turkoglu, while a terrific role player, is not in our 8 man rotation much as Portland wants him playing in front of Wallace and Ellis . . . .

Next, Kentucky attempts to pick and choose which players match up with which, when the game is much more complicated than that. Cassell may never even be on the court at the same time as Monta and the same could be said for almost any of the matchups mentioned.
we matched by roles, not necessarily implying they are the only matchups which is silly. However, it does show Kentucky's clear advantage in shooting throughout the lineups . . . Looking at the matchups as a whole, guard play quite clearly favors the Blazers.
No it doesn't, Wade is the only advantage and the lack of spread the floor guys, particularly among Portland's bigs, weakens his ability to drive and create, which was his whole game in 06.

As far as Wade as a PG, he's not a PG on this team, he's a guard. Manu Ginobili is a guard and Sam Cassell is a guard. Having a traditional, high assist PG next to a guard like Wade (note: not SG or PG) were excellent playmakers who usually had more assists than their "PG" counterparts. Those guards played with other guards who complimented them, like Jason Williams, Mike Bibby, Steve Blake, Tony Parker, and Derek Fisher.
All guys who take the load off their explosive twos by bringing the ball up against pressure and initiating the offense . . . notice they aren't big shooting swingmen like Manu; they are still PGs with good handles even if the ball gets into the hands of the wing guard quickly. Wade is being asked to do something Pat Riley doesn't ask him to do because of the fact that it adds to his load which is already extremely high.

Furthermore, I would hardly call Odom's new role as a sixth man a "demotion," as Kentucky tried to negatively assert. Instead, Odom accepted a new role as a sixth man to benefit his team because that's what his coach asked from him. Odom should be praised for his success and sacrifice in his new role rather than criticized for it. If anything, it shows how Odom could realistically come off the bench.
The team felt that they had better players; his minutes were cut; the rest is just spin.

Kentucky still neglects to mention Kirilenko's glaring offensive deficiencies at SF.
Kirilenko is a good but not great offensive player with decent post skills and a good midrange jumper who can hit the occasional three and who is in a 3 year run of 15ppg+. He isn't talked about much offensively because he's our 5th option who is asked to keep Artest honest by hitting open shots if doubled off, a role he is very good at. The focus is on his defense because that is the area where he is spectacular and one in which his shotblocking and help should have a defensive impact superior to any player on the Portland team unless Portland tries to switch Artest onto Martin with Wade on the 6'9 Kirilenko in which case it might be arguable.

Lets take a moment to analyze this match-up of Kentucky's best player vs. Portland's 2nd or 3rd best player, with Garnett's numbers first:
PTS - 18.8 to 24.7
PER - 25.3 to 26.5
TS% - .588 to .580
TRB% - 16.8 to 14.8
BLK% - 3.1 to 4.9
TOV% - 10.8 to 9.3
ie. Brand outscored Garnett and otherwise it is very similar . . . though of course Brand put up his numbers on a bad team playing bigger minutes while Garnett created the Boston team-first ethos by sharing the ball and leading a team defense.

About the center match up, Kentucky once again doesn't mention defense or rebounding, only the fact that Ilgauskas is a more capable offensive player. That's where his advantages stop. Chandler is an incredibly efficient offensive player who will thrive on a team with elite scorers around him, where he is always a 5th option. He is an otherworldly rebounder (1st), and an elite low AND high post defender. His quickness allows him to be an excellent high post defender and Ilguaskas won't get any easy looks. We're actually loaded with excellent post defenders for their positions, so Kentucky scoring in the post isn't a concern of ours, especially with their attack that is almost entirely predicated on the jumper falling - what happens on nights when it's not?
Ilgauskas was/is the leader of the outstanding Cleveland team defense and is a terrific defender who we didn't talk about that much for his man abilities because Chandler isn't an offensive threat. He plays from the high post to draw Chandler away from the basket and the rebounding opportunities Chandler thrives off, leaving the boards battles to Garnett/Brand (helluva match) and Kirilenko/Artest (adv. Kirilenko).
And GARNETT and Z are an EXCELLENT post-up offense to complement our outside shooting and slashers . . . as are Al Jeff and Wallace off the bench. The idea that we are a one dimensional jump shooting team is laughable.

Again, Kentucky highlights Jefferson vs. O'Neal by only mentioning offense. There is no mention of Al Jefferson's defense, which was somewhere between bad and terrible in this era. Jermaine, OTOH, was lauded for his while oftentimes carrying his team offensively.
Indy fans will tell you he may have been carrying them but he wasn't doing it well (offensive rating 21 out of 30); and of course Al Jeff will be matching up against starter Tyson Chandler too . . . not exactly a go to guy.

Also, Smith won't play pick and roll with Brand, Odom, and Jermaine already on the team.
Didn't make sense to me either, but you mentioned it in your writeup

It's also ironic that Kentucky would mention Jermaine 51 games) being "banged up" because players like Kevin Martin (57 games in '08actually 61 . . . almost 20% more than JO) and Gerald Wallace 72 games . . . hardly a problem have been constantly banged up in this era

I unequivocally disagree that Kentucky has better shooters at virtually every position, and again, Kentucky seems to be attempting to change the argument and make it about shooting rather than the many other facets of the game.
It is the biggest difference maker with the defenses being so close and our slight edge in playmaking being negated by your slight edge in rebounding. I could have talked about intangibles with Garnett and Parker's leadership v. Wade and Ginobili being a wash but no headcases on our squad comparable to Ron Artest but I think that's sort of obvious.

Even if offense is considered a wash, defense and rebounding, which the Colonels don't mention much, clearly favor the Blazers.
Defense actually favors the Colonels since we have the more varied offense to spread the floor while you have several players who your writeup says will rarely see the ball allowing our superior help defenders (Brand is great but he's not leaving Garnett often; the rest . . . meh) to provide superior team D. Rebounding looks better since Portland again has a bunch of guys who play inside for their teams without the outside guys but that's a bit deceiving; Chandler's edge (lessened by his role playing high post defense) is matched by Kirilenko's; Wallace matches up well against whoever, Jefferson is clearly better than JO, etc. I guess Portland relies on Wade doing that too; since that is their one real advantage; where Kentucky has the shooting and all around play edge pretty much everywhere.

Would have just let this go, but it's way too unrealistically one-sided not to point out the flaws. I did some editing where a point went on for a while to just show the highlights (it's damn long even as it is, lol). Sabas has a nice team; so do we; should be a fun one.

Orlando Magic VS. Toronto Raptors


First of all I'd like to congratulate everyone that's made it this far and is still committed to their teams, and good luck to MJallday69 who built a terrific team filled with finesse scoring players and different role guys to play alongside future Hall of Famer, Kobe Bryant. However, this Magic team has run into a brick wall in this series, their ultimate opponent who's completely the opposite of the other team in many areas. Hopefully I can advance and use this writeup to convince the key areas where I shall emerge victorious and advance to the semi-finals.


C Shaquille O'Neal vs. Yao Ming

20 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG, 0.4 SPG, 60% FG, All NBA First Team

A very key matchup here, two tremendously different types of Cs going head to head in an epic matchup. We have always seen a different kind of Shaquille O'Neal in the playoffs, and this is no different case. My team will look to POUND the ball inside to Shaq, who will relentlessly post up Yao and get within a couple feet within the rim and finish at ease with his 60% shooting. Shaq is almost automatic when he gets close to the rim, something he's going to get a lot this series against the soft interior defence of Yao Ming and Rasheed Wallace if they dare putting him against Shaq. Another key factor in this matchup is the experience factor, Yao Ming has never been known to take over during a key stretch and when the team needs a lift, he's very mistake prone and will run into trouble against my efficiency-laden team. EDGE: TORONTO

PF Chris Bosh vs. Rasheed Wallace

22.6 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 1.3 BPG, 49.6 FG%, 8.6 FTA, 78.5 FT%, All-Star

Another interesting matchup here, Bosh has the upperhand in rebounding and quickness, but Rasheed has a much more proven outside game and low-post presence with his turnaround jumper within a few feet. However, here's where Toronto has the edge, especially in a fan favorite like Chris Bosh. He is a pretty quick man-to-man defender and can close out to the perimeter against players like Sheed. Luckily for Bosh, it is unlikely for Sheed to post up Bosh like say, Shaq would do to Yao. Therefore, Bosh's main role here is to make sure Sheed does not go off shooting the lights out on the perimeter, this way, Bosh can use most of his energy on offence, giving fits to slow footed defenders like Yao and Sheed who will not be able to catch up with Bosh's quickness and inevitably reach in to foul Bosh on his way driving to the basket.

Some intriguing numbers when Rasheed plays Bosh:

In 15 games, Sheed has averaged only 12.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG .413 FG%, .333% from 3, and averages 2.9 Fouls per game.

Whereas Bosh, in 15 games, has averaged, 18.9 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 5.1 FTAs on .792% FT and .463 FG%.and only commits close to 1.9 TOs per game compared to his season averages of 2.3 TOs.

Chris Bosh is also an underrated passer at his position, a key attribute which "Sheed does not have for a versatile forward. In this matchup, the young, quick Chris Bosh will inevitably drive the catch-and-shoot wily veteran insane in a grinding series of toughness. EDGE: TORONTO


SF Shane Battier vs. Paul Pierce

9.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 1.1 BPG, NBA All-Defence Second Team

This matchup will be altered so that Battier will guard Kobe. Therefore, I shall explain a few intricacies of this wing matchup. Lets get one thing straight, Battier is not going to shut down Kobe, no one can. However, Shane is arguably one of 3-4 players in the league that can contain Bryant so that he does not go off. Everyone probably remembers that fateful game in Houston where Battier had that hand in Kobe’s face, literally.

That game, Kobe shot a dismal .333% from the field with 33 shots attempted , while committing 4 huge turnovers to give the Rockets the win in stunning fashion, prolonging their record-breaking winning streak. Shane’s stellar defence allows us to use him on single coverage against Kobe while leaving Ray Allen to guard Paul Pierce, however, most of the time, either Andre Miller or Ray Allen will shift over to double Yao or Kobe, daring the inefficient Paul Pierce to shoot from his uncomfortable range out to the 3 as well as the inefficient Mike Bibby to take a shot from downtown. In 3 games vs. Battier and the Rockets during Kobe’s MVP 07-08 campaign, Kobe made 35 shots out of 88 for a dismal .397% . Folks, that’s 88 shots in 3 games! meaning close to 30 shots per game.

Kobe lost two out of three games against Battier and the Rockets and was mentally shaken by the Rockets well-organized defence led by Battier. In the playoffs, Kobe showed his inability to handle a tough, multi-faceted defensive system with double-to-triple coverage. This series will boil down to this key matchup along with the Shaq-Yao matchup, as long as Kobe continues his bad shooting %s he displayed against tough wing defenders, it should be smooth sailing for Toronto. EDGE: N/A, Battier guarding different player


SG Ray Allen vs. Kobe Bryant

25.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.4 SPG, 45.4 FG%, 41.2 3PT%, 90.3 FT%, All-Star

Okay, so now we know all about the wing situation. Most of the time, like 95%, it will be Shane guarding Kobe, so Ray Allen will guard Paul Pierce. However, it is most likely that Kobe will guard Ray Allen on D. Plain and simple, Ray Allen is still the best pure shooter in this series, despite the Magic’s prowess in possessing jump-shooting finesse players. Ray Allen is a legit hall of famer and will expose Kobe’s inability to defend great shooter such as Ray. Lets take a look at some of Ray Allen’s numbers from the 2008 NBA Finals:

Game 1: 19 points, 8 rebounds, 5-13 FG, 2-6 from 3
Game 2: 17 points, 2 rebs, 6-11 FG, 3-6 from 3
Game 3: 25 points, 5 rebs, 8-13 FG, 5-7 from 3
Game 4: 19 points, 9 rebs, 6-11 FG, 2-6 from 3
Game 5: 16 points, 2 rebs, 4-13 FG 3-8 from 3 (fouled out though)
Game 6: 26 points, 4 rebs, 8-12 FG, 7-9 from 3

His totals: 122 points, 30 rebounds, 37-73 FG, 22-42 from 3, averages?
20.3 PPG, 5 RPG, 51.6% from the field, and a ridiculous 52.3% from 3pt range!

These numbers don’t lie and if Kobe’s going to defend Ray Allen like this, Toronto will likely have an advantage with the 3pt bombs. NOTE: these numbers will also probably rise, especially the percentages, as Ray will be playing with two bigs that can get him the ball with open looks. (Teams will inevitably double or triple Shaq and Bosh) EDGE: N/A, defenders on different players. Kobe is still Kobe, but if Battier guards Kobe and Ray attacks Kobe and uses his range, then Toronto will be fine.


PG Andre Miller vs. Mike Bibby

17.1 PPG, 6.9 APG, 1.3 SPG, .492 FG%, .772 FT%

Probably the matchup that will be least cared about by fans watching. These two players have different games and slightly different roles. Andre Miller’s role is to simply break into the passing lanes setting up Bosh on the high post or pound the ball into Shaq in the low post. Mike Bibby is a pretty below average defender so Miller’s length and ball IQ will most likely outmatch Bibby’s lateral quickness. Miller’s main job on defence is to stay in front of Bibby so he does not get his easy 3pt open looks. However, he will most likely shift over to double on Yao or Kobe if the situation calls for it, as Miller has long enough arms to prove to be a menace for Bibby to get his shot off.



Bench Rotation:

PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Chris Kaman
PF/C David Lee vs. Antawn Jamison
SF Andre Iguodala vs James Posey
SG Mike Dunleavy Jr. vs. Josh Howard
PG Devin Harris vs. Jason Terry

My bench rotation is one of the most efficient and defensively adept teams in this league, they will be called upon to spell the starters in situations where we need fresh legs. Harris will be the primary backup PG asked upon to guard Kobe for a limited time, and will be using his quickness to abuse Jason Terry/Mike Bibby off the dribble. The most interesting thing about this matchup of the benches is that my bench is so efficient and knows their roles perfectly compared to a inefficient Magic bench that simply contains too many “me-first” players that requires the ball to be effective, such as Antawn Jamison, Josh Howard, and Jason Terry. With a team that already includes Kobe, Pierce, Sheed, Yao, and Bibby, their bench will most likely not be as effective against a well-oiled machine like my bench when they need a certain volume of shots to be effective. Robert Horry will most likely get some burn, and Delonte West as well, as I will probably play a smaller-sized bench squad. EDGE: TORONTO, by a lot

Despite what MJallday69 thinks of his squad, I’m not sold on a wing combination of Kobe and Pierce. They are very similar players with the fact that they both require the ball to be effective and are specialists from mid-range and lack range from downtown. On the other hand, Ray Allen and Shane Battier (and even Mike Dunleavy, to a degree) are terrific outside shooters and does not require a certain volume of shots to be effective. What separates these matchups is that the Orlando Magic will be very easy to guard thanks to their lack of outside shooters from the wing and lack of inside post presences to wear down my interior defence of Shaq and Bosh, allowing the monstrous twin towers to do their bidding in the high and low posts.

In a nutshell, this matchup boils down to the Magic lack of efficiency and their shot selection, which they will regret because of the terrific efficiency of my team and its overall role knowledge. We also possess better rebounders in the frontcourt and have the most dominant C in this era, let alone this matchup. Therefore, an upset will inevitably happen, much like what transpired in the Lakers-Celtics finals last spring.


THE VERDICT: Raptors in 6!!!

Pacers, Magic , Kings, Colonels

Full discolsure I flipped a coin on 2 matchups. Well done Im very surprised at how balanced these teams are.

Best of luck to Bryant, i don't have as much time this week as i had hoped, here's my writetup though:

Pacers Vs Celtics

Nash (36)/Roy (12)
Rip (30)/Roy (18)
Marion (24)/Granger (24)
Dirk (36)/Marion (12)
Dwight (34)/Horford (14)

Vs

Kidd/Duhon/Stuckey
Iverson/Richardson
Jackson/Butler/Miller
Amare/Biedrins
Camby/Perkins

General Overview
Boston has a well rounded unit consisting of flash, flair, productive offense and well structured defense. The Pacers will have a hard time producing the usual efficiency that the numbers tell, yet at the same time we feel there are numerous options available for us to get us through this series. Playing a high tempo offense consistently is a key for us to keeping up pressure and holding down the stretch. Our main focus will be the guard play of Nash, superior outside shooting of Dirk, and the inside dominance of Dwight. While it can be agreed that defense wins championships, no one was contemplating the current lineup that Indiana possesses. Here's how we advance:

Offense
There is perhaps no more efficient team than ours in the league, our shooting numbers scream of quality. Combine that with a high tempo offense and Nash's uncanny ability to find the best shot available and you get a deadly combination. With our starting guards shooting .512% and .491% in total FG's the outside game is of major concern to any defense. Add to that the fact that all three forwards shoot over .500% and you start to see just how deadly we are from every angle.

The offense will be so well spaced that every possibility to score is utilized effectively.

With Nash and Rip being extremely useful from both the mid range and 3 point spots, both will demand total attention. Rip's role is a prominent catch and shoot game coming off screens, while Nash will primarily look to pass, but with the speed he possesses will be able to find a multitude of quality looks. Neither Kidd nor Duhon effect Nash's numbers in this era enough for it to be of any concern to us. Iverson and Richardson reduce Rip's shooting slightly, yet not enough to garner any concern. Our secondary ball handler in Roy performs well against all the Celtics backcourt rotation, especially that of Kidd and Duhon.

The frontcourt is also quite dominant for us. Dirk's outside game will be used to perfection against Amare. He simply does not have anywhere near enough defensive qualities to keep Dirk quiet, and with his deadly mid-long range accuracy, he will be very exposed.
Marion will be given free range to attack the rim from just outside the key. He is a high tempo threat who cannot be held by Butler or Jackson. With him at the 3 a mis-match is created of epic proportion.
Dwight is simply an absolute beast in this series. He is ridiculously effective at nullifying the usual defense that Camby applies. Not only will he dominant him on the weakside, he is far to strong on the offensive glass to let either Camby/Perkins/Biedrins restrict him on any level.

The bench provides us with a number of different options to use. Granger is a great long range weapon, compared to Marion. Roy is great at the mid-range look, as is Rip, yet he has great ability to attack the defense off the dribble. Marion provides a smaller option to Dirk at the backup 4 spot, yet is still aggressive enough to get quality looks close to the basket. Horford, while nothing flash, has a decent mid-range look and a solid body presence inside. All of which, while minor options, are great alternatives to the starting 5.

Defense
Not much to insert here from our POV. We will be the first to admit that we can't provide significant cover to stop all of Boston's options. Yet Rip,Al,Granger and Dwight can certainly hold their own on the defensive end.
With Kidd being less of a productive scorer than a majority of guards, Nash won't be exposed to a premium of points, yet will have to keep strong focus as Kidd is more than capable of lighting up against the right opponent.
Granger is a very solid perimeter defender who can at the very least force Richardon and Jackson into a number of contested shots.
Marion can perform a man to man stop adequately, in which the ability to get to the rim can be somewhat nullified.
We hardly expect Dirk to halt Amare's production, but with Camby being less of an offensive threat, we can afford to gamble, at least on the inside, with Dwight manning Amare wherever possible.
Al provides a big body off the bench to relieve the pressure on Dwight on inside D.

Rebounding
We possess a great deal of options both offensively and defensively. Averaging more than 30rpg for the starting three forwards, we will be able to both box out and extend offensive possessions at every possibility. Camby's rebounding numbers droop off dramatically when playing against Dwight. Neither Jackson or Butler can prevent Marion from getting the rock. And while Dirk will struggle on the offensive glass with Amare being sound, he is solid at the defensive end.

Intangibles
Our main focus is on spacing. Distancing on the court will enable us to exploit numerous lanes. With three proficient long range threats, a beast inside, numerous mid range shooters and a couple of lane drivers, we have simply too many options for this not to be a major factor.

Final Thoughts
Boston gets the nod defensively, and do provide a solid amount of offensive choices. But the Pacers simply hold too much in efficient scoring, rebounding and passing options for it to be a troubled series for us. Nash's guard play in this era is at a premium against the guard rotation of Boston, and there is simply not enough big man defense to contest Dirk from an outside perspective. Even their best defender struggles against Dwight.

Pacers in 5 games.