Tweak the Rotation

[lojowo]

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus ... am=Celtics

Second game in a row, the Starters plus Davis had a negative plus/minus.

Doc can still use this lineup but not 24 minutes a game like he does when KG is healthy.

Throw Powe in the lineup with the starters a little more, have Davis run with the bench more.

[cisco]

The starters had a negative plus/minus because Ray and Rondo kept missing shots. If that wasn't the case, the Celtics would have won and all have positive plus/minus. It wasn't Davis' fault, he was one of or best players yesterday. Ray and Rondo were the reason for the negative numbers. Stop trying to blame Davis because you don't like him. Powe with Perk only clogs the lane and provides NO spacing, and Powe will be left open to take jumpshots which he won't take or make. Plus Davis actually knows how to pass out of the post. There is a reason Doc trusts Davis in the starting lineup over Powe and in case you were blind, you saw it yesterday.

[Rocky5000]

Yeah I agree with Cisco. I don't think Big Baby was the problem, Perk maybe, but the big issue we had was with the backcourt. Eddie was the only one who had a decent game. In the blowouts against Denver and Phoenix it was Ray and Rajon who led the charge, when both of them are off, we probably aren't going to win without KG around.

[Pogue Mahone]

The starters had a negative plus/minus because Ray and Rondo kept missing shots. If that wasn't the case, the Celtics would have won and all have positive plus/minus.

I don't consider this to be quite true. The reason we lost was because our defense screwed the pooch and Davis was perhaps the biggest part of that.

For the game we had an offensive efficiency of 114.5 and a defensive efficiency of 126.5. To put that in perspective, Boston has only eclipsed 126.5 in two games this season themselves --- offensively. When you are giving up over .25 points more than your season average, your defense is in a bad, bad way.

It wasn't Davis' fault, he was one of or best players yesterday. Ray and Rondo were the reason for the negative numbers. Stop trying to blame Davis because you don't like him.

Can we leave out the "because you don't like him" stuff? It really adds nothing to the discussion and, imo, just diminishes your argument because it appears you are attempting to make it personal. You have essentially just based your entire argument on the fact that you believe the OP was attempting to somehow further a personal agenda and, therefor, we shouldn't consider the premise of the thread at all. This isn't Das Celticsbloggen.

Powe with Perk only clogs the lane and provides NO spacing, and Powe will be left open to take jumpshots which he won't take or make.

Actually, that may seem what logic would dictate and, you are correct. The pairing of Davis/Perkins has shown to be a much better offensively capable unit than Powe/Perkins. In fact, that former has outscored the latter by 3.06 points per 100 possessions. One of the ways the Powe/Perkins duo mitigates this is to be absolutely, positively fantastic on the offensive glass.

Where it falls apart, though, is that Davis/Perkins line-up is still poor offensively and even worse defensively than the Powe/Perkins one. And the difference isn't even close.

Per 200 possessions (100 Offensive and 100 Defensive), the difference is 23.71 points!

Consider the following (SSS):

Kendrick Perkins (w/ Glen Davis):
Minutes Played: 181.21
Offensive Possessions For: 327
Offensive Points Scored: 337
Defensive Possessions Against: 334
Defensive Points Allowed: 375
Offensive Points Per 100 Possessions: 103.06
Defensive Points Per 100 Possessions: 112.28
Point Differential Per 200 Possessions: -9.22
Offensive Rebound Percentage: 32.93%
Defensive Rebound Percentage: 68.52%
Expected Winning Percentage: .232

Kendrick Perkins (w/ Leon Powe):
Minutes Played: 73.36
Offensive Possessions For: 141
Offensive Points Scored: 141
Defensive Possessions Against: 138
Defensive Points Allowed: 118
Offensive Points Per 100 Possessions: 100.00
Defensive Points Per 100 Possessions: 85.51
Point Differential Per 200 Possessions: 14.49
Offensive Rebound Percentage: 37.50%
Defensive Rebound Percentage: 70.51%
Expected Winning Percentage: .900

Plus Davis actually knows how to pass out of the post. There is a reason Doc trusts Davis in the starting lineup over Powe and in case you were blind, you saw it yesterday.

What does it matter if he can pass out of the post and hit a jumper if he makes the entire team worse because of his inability to alter/disrupt shots in the paint on the defensive end? It is not the like the offensive upgrade is monumental to make up for the drastic drop in defensive efficiency.

One of the main reasons for the Davis/Perkins line-up struggling defensively is the inability of the unit to alter shots and the lack of defensive rebounding. The reason it is less of a factor for the Powe/Perkins line-up is that Powe makes more of an impact on the defensive glass. Anecdotally,it appears that his plays a more vertical game and that simple aspect greatly affects the quality of shots on the defensive interior as compared to the Davis/Perkins line-up.

[billfromBoston]

Man, I didn't know the Off/Def splits were that signifiant...

I am initially inclined to agree with Doc and keep the rotations with one jump shooting big and one post big, but the rebounding in that first unit has been real bad and Davis has really had trouble working with Perkins defensively.

A lot of the recent struggles have simply been about new lineup combos and player's not being on the same page IMO...

[Pogue Mahone]

Man, I didn't know the Off/Def splits were that signifiant...

I knew it wasn't "good" but I hadn't realized just how bad the pairing was until I ran the numbers. I was surprised (and not in a good way.)

I think one of things that is being discounted here is that, yes, Davis is hitting Js but they are on the pop-out variety. They are not space creating jumpers. In fact, despite his hot shooting the last couple of games, his spacing has been pretty poor, overall, imo. There were a few times in the Pistons game alone in which he brought his man into the play and caused offensive discontinuity. That won't show up in the box score as a demerit for him, of course, but it most certainly affected the outcome of the individual possessions. I do recall that on one of the plays, Perkins still manage to convert on a turnaround I believe it was. The point holds, though; poor overall spacing disrupts the offensive synergy.

Having the jump-shot and shooting the jumpers is not enough. You have to remain diligent in your space discipline for the entire offense to run smoothly. For all their warts, this is a trait that the Brian Scalabrines, Shane Battiers, Bruce Bowens and Tayshaun Princes excel at.

Kendrick Perkins (w/ Brian Scalabrine):
Minutes Played: 62.23
Offensive Possessions For: 125
Offensive Points Scored: 149
Defensive Possessions Against: 126
Defensive Points Allowed: 131
Offensive Points Per 100 Possessions: 119.20
Defensive Points Per 100 Possessions: 103.97
Point Differential Per 200 Possessions: -9.22
Offensive Rebound Percentage: 29.79%
Defensive Rebound Percentage: 77.78%
Expected Winning Percentage: .871

Again, we are running into small sample size issues but what amazes me is that even if we discount the numbers of the Scal/Perk pair, they could play their next 410 possessions at the following rates, and be exactly equal to the Davis/Perk in performance.

Kendrick Perkins (w/ Brian Scalabrine to = w/ Glen Davis):
Minutes Played: ~118.98
Offensive Possessions For: 202
Offensive Points Scored: 188
Defensive Possessions Against: 208
Defensive Points Allowed: 244
Offensive Points Per 100 Possessions: 93.07
Defensive Points Per 100 Possessions: 117.31
Point Differential Per 200 Possessions: -24.24
Offensive Rebound Percentage: 34.17%
Defensive Rebound Percentage: 61.11%
Expected Winning Percentage: .038

So, maybe the Scal/Perk line-up isn't for real (I tend to think it is probably pretty close to real, fwiw. Scalabrine has a similar effect on the line-ups of KG, which he did last year, as well.) Other than offensive rebounding (consider how much time on the perimeter Scalabrine's role calls for him to be out there), the Scal/Perk unit would have to be absolutely terrible, more terrible than any team has ever played in the NBA on offense and worse than any team has ever played on defense, over the next ~400 possessions, to equal that of Davis/Perk.

I am initially inclined to agree with Doc and keep the rotations with one jump shooting big and one post big, but the rebounding in that first unit has been real bad and Davis has really had trouble working with Perkins defensively.

I am a fan of Doc but I think he has pretty much stepped on his dick with the rotations. I think his insistence on using Davis as the first big off the bench, in lieu of Leon who has better production AND his unit performs better, is one of the major sub-plots of this season for the Celtics. As I understand it, the argument is that Leon is not as good rotating on help and he is not as good on beefier players in the post. I would agree that those statements are true, as well.

The issue for me is, what good is being in the right place if you don't effect the outcome of the individual play? If you are good in rotation but lack the athleticism to challenge, I would argue that that is no worse than being mediocre in rotations but still have the athleticism to disrupt.

If you are good at keeping your body between your man and the rim, what good is it if he just simply shoots over you because you lack the athleticism and length to get up and challenge? What is the added benefit of being a more skilled and willing passer and a better outside shooter if you don't apply those skills to positively effect your teammates?

I would argue that Glen Davis is far more individually talented than Leon Powe. What Davis is not good at, though, is defensive rebounding, shot disruption, finishing inside, covering in space and understanding space discipline. I would argue that anyone playing PF or C (man, I hate positional designations, I really do) needs to have at least some of those qualities and preferably all of those things to be effective.

Sure, you can make up for some of those shortcomings by using your noggin but Davis doesn't do that. If he can't reach to block the shot, why not put a hand in the man's face? If he can't rebound very well on the defensive end of the court, why is he not consistently applying a body on offensive rebounders so a teammate can gather the rebound? If he is inconsistent at finishing inside, well, work on the jumper, I guess (he has.)

There is absolutely no excuse for poor space discipline, though, because it shows a clear ignorance/indifference to your teammates' comfort zones, it means you have zero understanding of how to help without touching the ball and it demonstrates the inability to apply even the most meager of skills in a manner that accents your teammates.

Sure, there are going to be times when there is a broken play and space discipline suffers. That is only natural. Again, let me pimp Scal as an example. Has anyone ever really watched what Scal does as the third man in the pick-and-roll? Have you seen him slide to adjust for the angle at which the ball-handler is coming off of the pick? Do you see how he often turns his body on the anticipation of the pass so he can shield the ball from his man who is likely attempting to sag? This slight adjustment gives Scal a "head start" so he can swing the ball on the catch if the shot isn't there. Or how about when Scal makes a pass on the perimeter into the corner. If the shot isn't there for a teammate, immediately on the release of the pass he is moving to get in position to set a pick and the only option for the defense is to go under the pick because attempting to go over the top will likely result in a shooting foul (it is because the distance from the three point line to out of bounds is at its narrowest. One dribble laterally to free, a half second to set your feet and the shooter is completely open in all but some instances.) Most teams will attempt to guard the baseline in this instance and will fail to send top-side help.

A lot of the recent struggles have simply been about new lineup combos and player's not being on the same page IMO...

I agree but I would argue that some of the preexisting line-ups have been sub-optimal. From where I am sitting, I would have attempted to integrate Patrick O'Bryant earlier in the season to at least see what you got. Despite all of O'Bryant's shortcomings, the defense of his units when he saw minutes was actually quite good. Playing O'Bryant will less experienced teammates wouldn't have been a great idea. Playing O'Bryant in a Rondo-T. Allen-Pierce-Garnett line-up would cover-up his offensive shortcomings and likely funnel penetration to his side. He would have blocked a ton of shots and altered many more. It's a chicken/egg, thing, though. People will point to him having no clue, the fouls and turnovers but he hasn't played enough minutes to be sure of what you actually have. Conversely, in the minutes he has seen, he has produced, from NCAA to D-League to NBA. One thing I do know with certainty about O'Bryant is that he has shown that he can really rebound on the defensive end and he can block shots. He has shown me enough that I know he can contribute offense, as well. Just because he wasn't running spastic, jumping into the first row after the ball had already gone out of bounds, beating his chest or any of that, doesn't mean he wasn't trying.

Assume he wasn't trying, though. If O'Bryant can give no effort, pull down 20+ DReb% and disrupt opponents with his length around the hoop (6.0 Blk%), well, what does that say for a player who appears to give a lot of effort (and fake hustle), the team has performed poorly with him on the court defensively (more poorly than most realize) and would require a contract extension to retain him.

Again, I think Doc has shot the team in the foot this year. I would like to see Powe as the first big off the bench. I would platoon Moore and Davis, depending on match-ups. I would look to Perkins more inside. I would integrate Giddens or Walker into the team in the event that we might need one or both of them because of injuries. I think too many minutes and opportunities were given to Tony Allen despite uneven performance, when healthy.

I don't know. It just seems like Doc has tried to paint by numbers this year instead of allowing for growth outside of his original rotation.

And no, Posey was overrated.

[ryaningf]

Souza had a small note in his game column saying that Baby, for one, wasn't being vocal enough on the defensive end of the court and that that lack of court talk was affecting Rondo's ability to know what's going on behind him as he defends on the perimeter.

Baby's played well on the offensive end, mixing and matching outside js and inside drives, but the void created by KG is so hard to fill. Scal/Baby/Leon--I think--do a really good job when KG's out because they somewhat embody the various facets of his game. But with Scal out, our balance gets all thrown off. Rondo/Ray/Paul/Perk now and for the next 2 weeks need to pick up their individual game's during KG's absence--starting with defensive intensity. And Doc needs to play Bill Walker in the interim. In every struggle there's opportunity--the opportunity this time is to see if Bill Walker can surprise us.

[lojowo]

Great stuff Pogue Mahone

Love your research.