Realistic Rubio-to-HOU Scenario

[ecuhus1981]

Trade ID# 5105146

Houston Trade Breakdown
Incoming Players: Marko Jaric, Darko Milicic, DeShawn Stevenson, Darius Songaila, #2
Outgoing Players: James White, Aaron Brooks, Brent Barry, Tracy McGrady, '10 MEM 2nd
HOU gets a young star PG, and solid backups.
(Rubio), [Artest], Battier, Scola, Ming
Lowry, Stevenson, Songaila, Landry, Milicic


Memphis Trade Breakdown
Incoming Players: Mike James, Etan Thomas, #5, '10 MEM 2nd (returned)
Outgoing Players: Marko Jaric, Darko Milicic, #2
MEM moves post-2010 salary while adding veteran depth and reclaiming a pick.
Conley, Mayo, Gay, (Hill), Gasol
James, (Smith), [Ross], Arthur, Thomas


Washington Trade Breakdown
Incoming Players: James White, Aaron Brooks, Brent Barry, Tracy McGrady
Outgoing Players: DeShawn Stevenson, Darius Songaila, Mike James, Etan Thomas, #5
WAS gets ready to contend while cutting post-2010 salary.
Arenas, McGrady, Butler, Jamison, Haywood
Brooks, Young, McGuire, Blatche, McGee

[loserX]

There is a decent chance that the only player Washington receives that will contribute anything at all next year is Brooks, a backup PG. Not sure that gets them "ready to contend". I also suspect that if that's the cost for Rubio, Houston just gets cut out.

[Prospect Dong]

Seriously? Memphis moves down to #5 in order to ditch the final year of Jaric and add a 2nd rounder?

That's literally much worse than most of Smills' offers.

[ecuhus1981]

There is a decent chance that the only player Washington receives that will contribute anything at all next year is Brooks, a backup PG. Not sure that gets them "ready to contend". I also suspect that if that's the cost for Rubio, Houston just gets cut out.

I would be a little surprised if WAS fans preferred Rubio, Marko and Darko over McGrady and Brooks, but maybe I'm wrong. Would HOU needs to add a future 1st???

In any case, I DO think that McGrady will contribute next season, in a big way. Originally in February when he had surgery, it was supposed to take 6-12 months for Tracy to fully recover. T-Mac has already started non-contact drills, I read somewhere, and says he's going to be ready for the start of the season (8 months). Even IF the Wizards kept him out until Jan 1 or something, that's still 50 games plus the post-season. The Wizards would be one of the most versatile, explosive and defensively sound teams in the entire NBA.

[ecuhus1981]

Seriously? Memphis moves down to #5 in order to ditch the final year of Jaric and add a 2nd rounder?

That's literally much worse than most of Smills' offers.

OK, what more do you expect? Just spell it out, who needs to give more, and what?

[rpa]

Seriously? Memphis moves down to #5 in order to ditch the final year of Jaric and add a 2nd rounder?

That's literally much worse than most of Smills' offers.

OK, what more do you expect? Just spell it out, who needs to give more, and what?

As he alluded to: the problem here is that there are other teams that would blow this offer away even w/ something that some ppl consider a lowball offer. Hell, take the Kings for example:

A Thomas/#4/#31 for Jaric/#2 beats your offer
A Thomas/#4/#23 for Jaric/#2 kills your offer
A #4/#31 for Jaric/#2 (Kings absorb Jaric) kills your offer
etc.

Most Grizz fans feel all 3 of those (4 if you count the scenario where the Kings send 4/23 for Jaric/2) lowball offers and every single one beats your offer handily.

[Leto]

I can't see Houston getting the #2 without giving up Scola or Yao.

[RTM]

This trade has way too much involved. Any way to "trim the fat"?

[ecuhus1981]

This trade has way too much involved. Any way to "trim the fat"?

Well, the main "fat" consists of salary that the Wizards need in order to receive McGrady's big contract. I'll see what I can do, though, and thanks for the feedback.

[ecuhus1981]

Is this better?

Trade ID# 5105428

Houston Trade Breakdown
Incoming Players: Marko Jaric, Darius Songaila, Mike James, Etan Thomas, #2
Outgoing Players: Tracy McGrady, Aaron Brooks, Joey Dorsey, James White, '11 HOU 1st, '10 MEM 2nd
HOU adds a young PG with superstar potential.
(Rubio), [Artest], Battier, Scola, Ming
Lowry, Jaric, Songaila, Landry, Thomas


Memphis Trade Breakdown
Incoming Players: Joey Dorsey, #5, '10 MEM 2nd (returned)
Outgoing Players: Marko Jaric, #2
MEM moves Marko and gains youth assets.
Conley, Mayo, Gay, (Hill), Gasol
(Smith), [Ross], Arthur, Dorsey, Milicic


Washington Trade Breakdown
Incoming Players: Tracy McGrady, Aaron Brooks, James White, '11 HOU 1st
Outgoing Players: Darius Songaila, Mike James, Etan Thomas, #5
WAS upgrades its G depth while trimming '10 salary.
Arenas, McGrady, Butler, Jamison, Haywood
Brooks, Young, McGuire, Blatche, McGee

[rpa]

Is this better?

That deal still gets blown away by a number of reasonable/lowball offers (depending if you're talking to a Memphis fan or not) pretty easily.

Dumping Jaric is pretty much a given for anyone--it's nothing unique--so look at the young assets the Grizz get: a 2nd rounder & Joey Dorsey (who was a 2nd rounder last year). A 1st rounder this year blows that out of the water. Hell, a high 2nd rounder this year (e.g. the 31st pick) probably beats that too.

[NCHeels2008]

I'm sorry but Memphis' 2nd next year prly has more value it's a deeper draft, Memphis can only develop so many prospects and they get to defer an expense.

[rpa]

I'm sorry but Memphis' 2nd next year prly has more value it's a deeper draft, Memphis can only develop so many prospects and they get to defer an expense.

Memphis is so far below the cap right now they're going to have to add salary to get up to the minimum; thus deferring a cost has little (if any) value to them.

Further, the "deeper" draft next year is mostly in terms of players at the top, not players further down.

Further still, who knows where Memphis ends up next year.

[Guy986]

All Rubio to Houston scenarios are unrealistic. The only thing we have that is we close to the value of a 2nd overall pick is Yao Ming.

[Telfaire]

How about:

Memphis trade Jaric, rights to Rubio for #5, Brooks, Blatche and James - dump Jaric for an expiring, get a backup PG and a possible starting PF.

Wizards trade #5, Blatche, James, Songalia, Stevenson for T-Mac, Rockets' future 1st - gamble on T-Mac, worst case scenario they dump some long-term contracts for a huge expiring.

Rockets trade Brooks, T-Mac, future 1st for Rubio, Songalia, Stevenson, Jaric

[grizzleGM]

If I knew that the Grizzlies could sign a great PF in FA, then I would give up the #2 in order to add Battier and Scola to this lineup, but I also realize that is not great value for the #2.

[lojowo]

Memphis needs more IMO

[PDXKnight]

This trade is too good for Houston. McGrady has no value right now besides being an expiring, though I don't think his expiring can net them Rubio.

[brock]

Memphis' 2010 2nd rounder belongs to the lakers,

The 2nd rounder Memphis traded to Hou last draft was returned as part of taking on Steve Francis,

Memphis owes Houston a conditional 2nd rounder in 2011, but if I'm not mistaken the condition is top 55 protected,

so

#2 and Jaric

for

Dorsey and #5

is not enough,

Memphis needs a lotto this year, AND either a decent prospect (PF) or a pick that falls between #14 and #24 this year or a top 3/5 PROTECTED pick next year, all while ditching Jaric

[ecuhus1981]

...

You're high.

Memphis fans can tout the rumored SAC deals, but I think Rubio's value is closer to the offer that NYK is making: the #8 and Mobley's 80%-covered '10 expiring for #2, Darko and Marko.