Mustard_Tiger wrote:Passan's entire premise doesn't take into account the possibility that the Jays will contend next year, the financial benefit of having Roy Halladay on the Jays for this season and next, the possible alienation of a majority of Jays fans that would have come from a deal (especially one to Boston and New York), and the fact that JP isn't the only one making the decisions for the Jays (Beeston had the final say). There are simply a lot of factors involved in a possible deal that Passan doesn't mention. Oh, and JP may end up being fired this winter anyway.
I'm curious what makes you think that contending is a legitimate possibility for us next year. Not dissenting, per se, but Boston and New York are two of the three best teams in the league right now by record and that doesn't figure to change much. They're on pace to win 95-97 games each this year. For New York, that's where they've been for 12 years, with only 2 exceptions in that timeframe (2000 and 2008). They're not likely to fall off next year, barring major injuries or what-not. Boston has been there for 5 of the last 6 years, a run including a pair of championships and two other appearances in the ALCS. They aren't much figuring to tail off and let us through either.
So we basically have to post an 8-game improvement over the best record we've had in the last 15 years (the 88 wins we had in 1998) or a 10-game improvement over the 87 wins we had in 2006. We have to start winning like we did in the early 90s, when we had a huge payroll and a lot of really awesome players. Then we can make the playoffs. And this is ignoring Tampa, who's still playing pretty well this year and figures to still be a 54% to 55% W/L team next year.
I like where we're going to be with our pitching staff in like 2-5 years; I think if we have anything to say about Ricciardi, it's that he has done a phenomenal job acquiring young talent. Cecil, Romero, Rzepczynski, Purcey, these guys are all really interesting. If Marcum comes back with control and McGowan comes back with his velocity, then we have a compelling rotation, some good MR options and some guys who'll be back up in the majors soon. Plus, Roenicke and Stewart are intriguing.
And we've got some power in the lineup now that Hill and Lind are hitting, but we still need another bat, preferably behind the plate. I guess Encarnacion is an interesting option as a DH (Lord knows he doesn't belong on the field...), but then we need a 3B to fill the void left by Rolen's departure.
You know, I had some unflattering things to say about Ricciardi at the beginning of this season, but the more I look at it, despite the fact that he's a loose-lipped idiot with the media, he does seem to get certain things done and I'd be interested to see what he could achieve with a competitive payroll. If he can somehow get rid of Wells (who's having a season with an OBP of 84 that looks like 2007, but with more GDPs and maybe a career-high in SB), then maybe he'll have that extra money that could be used on someone significant.
It may be a corporate smokescreen, but I know that this was said about a week ago:
"The Blue Jays are committed to winning," said Viner, who runs the division of Rogers Communications Inc., responsible for the club. "There is no pressure whatsoever for them to reduce payroll."
From that same article:
The Blue Jays have drawn 1,238,569 fans through 52 dates for an average of 23,819, compared to 1,438,408 fans for an average of 27,662 at the same point last year.
"We sort of stopped free ticket giveaways and our actual revenue per ticket has risen sharply this year," said Viner. "We're going to beat our budget and that's with the existing player payroll. That's with the combination of reducing expenses, especially on the business side, and getting more revenue in."
Unsaid is that the Blue Jays also reduced their payroll from about $95 million (U.S.) to somewhere in the $81 million range this year, although they have increased spending on scouting and player development.
What that all means for the payroll next season remains a question.
"If we had the opportunity to improve the team, we would improve the team, especially if we felt it was going to drive our revenues," said Viner. "What we're going to try and do is raise revenues to be in line (with spending) and we think we can do that and we think we've taken the right steps, and we'll be even more aggressive on that front."
Viner also insisted the instability atop the team – new Rogers CEO Nadir Mohamed isn't believed to be as enamoured with ownership of the club as the late Ted Rogers, Beeston is actively searching for his replacement, Ricciardi's contract expires after the 2010 season – isn't a problem.
"We think (Ricciardi) is here to stay and although Beeston is interim, it's been tough to get rid of him," said Viner. ``Seriously, we are quite close to identifying a successor to Paul, he's been quite active on that file, and there are some things that should probably be left to Paul's successor."
