Future Of The Jays [Part 1]

[Raptor04]

Now that he Jays are clearly in a rebuild, let's assess what we have to work with here over the next few years (in this section I'm going to cover positional players):

Positions Already Set

C-
1B-
2B- Aaron Hill
SS-
3B-
RF-
CF-
LF- Adam Lind
DH-

With Hill and Lind the only real players in our current lineup that have established themselves as solid players, let's see who rests in our farm system and could likely step in and cover the rest of the positions in the future:

Catcher

JP Arencibia- 1st round selection in 2007 draft

1st Baseman

David Cooper- 1st round selection in 2008 draft
Randy Ruiz- 25HR, 106RBI, .320 in 114 games with Las Vegas 51s
Brian Dopirak- 7HR, 22RBI, .344 in 22 games with Las Vegas 51s

2nd Baseman

No standouts

Shortstop

Angel Sanchez- 6HR, 55RBI, .306 in 109 games with Las Vegas 51s

3rd Baseman

Kevin Ahrens- 1st round selection in 2007 draft
Kevin Howard- 10HR, 43RBI, .310 in 68 games with Las Vegas 51s

Right Field

No standouts

Center Field

Buck Coats- 5HR, 46RBI. 25SB, .299 in 101 games with Las Vegas 51s

Left Field

Travis Snider- 1st round selection in 2006

Designated Hitter/Others

Brett Harper- 15HR, 55RBI, .274 in 79 games with Las Vegas 51s
Vernon Wells- Signed longterm, likely non-movable contract

*Green indicates future starter potential
*Red indicates bench player potential
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now assuming our draft picks develop the way they should, this should be our lineup in a few years:

C- JP Arencibia
1B- David Cooper
2B- Aaron Hill
SS-
3B- Kevin Ahrens
RF-
CF- Vernon Wells
LF- Travis Snider
DH- Adam Lind

So according to this, we are set for most positions for the future, with the exception of shortstop and right field. We can experiment with other players here for the next few years (seeing as how we`ll be rebuilding) and then the NEW GM AT THAT TIME (Not Riccardi) will likely have to land us some solid free agents down the road.

For the time being, it looks like we have salary tied up on guys like Overbay till 2010, but we should see Arencibia and Snider as guys who can likely step in next season to start for us, with guys like Cooper and Ahrens likely ready by 2010-2011. Essentially, we`ll be seeing a much weaker Jays team over the next few years, but we are covered at many positions in terms of our positional players, so the team is on the right track. The key now is to let our current players run their contracts out, and then slowly bring in these new guys and get them some experience at the big level. Then, once our key free agents run their contracts dry, we have to make sure we keep our payroll clear of major spendings until our young players show a real impact in the big leagues.

[TDotFan]

Can't we play snider to RF and keep Lind in LF?

[Schad]

Good post. Couple things, though; Arencibia needs at least half a season (likely more) of seasoning in AAA, as a .281 OBP at that level spells disaster in the majors. And even 2011 is incredibly optimistic for Ahrens...he has sucked out loud in Dunedin this year, and will be repeating there in 2010. The odds that he transforms over the course of a season into a starting-caliber third baseman are slim-to-unthinkable; he's a very long-term project, at best.

[Avenger]

I'm a fan of Arencibia but he needs to get his mind right if he wants a shot at the big leagues. He needs to be develop more patience and discipline or he might just become Barajas 2.0 with a bit more power.

As for future RF or CF, our best prospect is probably RF Moises Sierra who's playing at Dunedin A+. He hits for average, he's got solid patience,decent speed and a cannon of an arm in the outfield. He needs to develop his power a whole lot more if wants to play RF or atleast a little bit more if he's gonna play center field.

[Dr Positivity]

I want some base stealing, hitting for average prospects. MLB looks like it's headed towards another speed-defense era and our team is anything but. That's who I think we should go after in free agency if/when we have the money to spend. I'm cool with Hill, Lind, and Snider batting 3-5, we don't need another Frank Thomas like bat in there (ugh), or Jason Bay. Rather get a .300 steals a lot of bases/pain in the ass guy, or two. That guy + Hill/Lind/Snider, and then Wells maybe improves once the pressure's off and a couple more prospects come up... i'm ok with that. It would be nice to have Dominic Brown in there too though, as much as the Phillies' offer wasn't too great, we might end up with a worse deal. Or if Halladay accepted a JUSTIN SMOAK deal. god damn I love that name. With another top 25 prospect who's an everyday player, + Hill/Lind/Snider, plus some good capspace and picks coming up... I'd feel pretty confident about our core going forward. Though I still do, it's just a pain in the ass that we're gonna have to wait another 3-4 years for it

[Hoopstarr]

I'm really down on Ahrens too. For a supposedly advanced hitter with switch-hitting ability, he has shown nothing so far and only gotten worse. And to think we missed Jason Heyward by 2 spots in that draft, I'm still mad about that. Damn Atlanta and their local fetish.

By the way Raptor04, you forgot some guys. Justin Jackson (SS), Brad Emaus, John Tolisano, and Scott Campbell (2B, 3B), Moises Sierra, Johermyn Chavez, (OF) and some other guys who are talented but not producing like Eiland, Wilson, Fuenmayor, Jeroloman, etc

[Raptor04]

Can't we play snider to RF and keep Lind in LF?

I think the Jays would ideally play Snider in LF, since that's where he's played his best defense and had the most playing time at. Right Field is an option I guess, but Lind plays LF or DH before he shifts to RF.

Good post. Couple things, though; Arencibia needs at least half a season (likely more) of seasoning in AAA, as a .281 OBP at that level spells disaster in the majors. And even 2011 is incredibly optimistic for Ahrens...he has sucked out loud in Dunedin this year, and will be repeating there in 2010. The odds that he transforms over the course of a season into a starting-caliber third baseman are slim-to-unthinkable; he's a very long-term project, at best.

Yeah, Arencibilia still does need some seasoning and I'm sure we could get guys like Michael Barrett and Raul Chavez to cover up the void until he's ready to come to the big leagues. My main point with these rookies coming into the fold is that the Jays should stick to low cost, short term options at any of these positions until these rooks are ready to come up and make a huge impact in the major leagues, as adding salary before we see what talent we have for cheap could put this team a step back (like payments to Frank Thomas and BJ Ryan did).

And I don't know much about Ahrens, but I;d definately agree that he's not having a good season down in the minors and would definately be a longterm project. Still one of our 1st round picks and likely has the most potential out of all our 3B in the minors

I'm a fan of Arencibia but he needs to get his mind right if he wants a shot at the big leagues. He needs to be develop more patience and discipline or he might just become Barajas 2.0 with a bit more power.

As for future RF or CF, our best prospect is probably RF Moises Sierra who's playing at Dunedin A+. He hits for average, he's got solid patience,decent speed and a cannon of an arm in the outfield. He needs to develop his power a whole lot more if wants to play RF or atleast a little bit more if he's gonna play center field.

Sierra's having a decent year down in the minors (.297AVG, .370OBP, 4HR, 48RBI, 10SB). He's young and ha potential based on his scouting report, and definately looks like he's got some speed. That's with Dunedin though, whether he'll be able to keep those numbers strong in double A or triple A is still to be seen. He's on the radar I guess.

I want some base stealing, hitting for average prospects. MLB looks like it's headed towards another speed-defense era and our team is anything but. That's who I think we should go after in free agency if/when we have the money to spend. I'm cool with Hill, Lind, and Snider batting 3-5, we don't need another Frank Thomas like bat in there (ugh), or Jason Bay. Rather get a .300 steals a lot of bases/pain in the ass guy, or two. That guy + Hill/Lind/Snider, and then Wells maybe improves once the pressure's off and a couple more prospects come up... i'm ok with that. It would be nice to have Dominic Brown in there too though, as much as the Phillies' offer wasn't too great, we might end up with a worse deal. Or if Halladay accepted a JUSTIN SMOAK deal. god damn I love that name. With another top 25 prospect who's an everyday player, + Hill/Lind/Snider, plus some good capspace and picks coming up... I'd feel pretty confident about our core going forward. Though I still do, it's just a pain in the ass that we're gonna have to wait another 3-4 years for it

I don't know about MLB going toward a certain era, but I agree that Hill/Lind/Snider are likely our 3-5 hitters as guys who can all hit for contact, power and be major offensive catalysts. I think ontop of those top 3 prospects, and guys like Cooper and Arencibia likely further down the lineup, the Jays will need to add a speedy shortstop in the future, and likely a great contact hitter/veteran who can hit out of the 2 hole and be a better version of Rios. Agreed it'll be a pain to wait 3-4 years for it to happen, but hopefully by then the Sox and Yankees will be slightly weaker and we'll be able to make a push for the division.

I'm really down on Ahrens too. For a supposedly advanced hitter with switch-hitting ability, he has shown nothing so far and only gotten worse. And to think we missed Jason Heyward by 2 spots in that draft, I'm still mad about that. Damn Atlanta and their local fetish.

By the way Raptor04, you forgot some guys. Justin Jackson (SS), Brad Emaus, John Tolisano, and Scott Campbell (2B, 3B), Moises Sierra, Johermyn Chavez, (OF) and some other guys who are talented but not producing like Eiland, Wilson, Fuenmayor, Jeroloman, etc

Yeah, I knew there'd definately be some guys I'd be missing. I'm not too familiar with our minor league system, so I just kinda threw in the obvious players (the top draft picks and the best producers). I knew there'd be quite a few who either have potential or are either tearing it up with their team, but who out of these players would you say have a solid shot at breaking our starting lineup in the future?

For anyone else, feel free to post other players and rank them in our farm system so I can list our top prospects as being the ones most likely to challenge for a starting spot. I'll likely update this thread a little later in the future, and I'll post part 2 which covers our pitching in the next week or so.

[SCF99]

we have a S*** load of young pitchers which is a good thing,and still drafting them,,,the infield will for sure be a week spot,,,,Cooper seems like he might be a bit of a letdown

[squeekysneakers]

I think our young pitching looks really good at this point especially if Marcum and Litsch come back from surgery strong. But with guys like Romero, Rzepchyinski and potentially Richmond as well...that's a pretty decent group of young arms behind Halladay. I can also only assume that if/when Halladay is move that a major league ready starting pitcher will be included (ala Happ, Billingsley, Bucholz, etc). That looks to be solid.

The Bullpen is an area of concern but we have some solid young arms there as well with Roenicke and Accardo...Frasor will probably be the closer next year...although if McGown comes back and isn't able to go back into the rotation I could see a move to the bullpen for him. This is all contingent on whether he ever pitches again. League and Carlson have been awful but I think we can plug those holes through free-agency/trades.

As for the infield. Hill is locked in and I think the plan is to have Justin Jackson down the road at SS barring a move for a young SS. For the time being I think Scutaro is the best option...if we decide to keep him.

1B I honestly think will end up being Lind. He is too much of a liability defensively int he outfield and I think he will end up being moved to 1B or continue as a DH. Cooper is probably the future plan there but Lind may end up being the better option.

I think Arencibia needs more time but it might be good to have him up woith the big club for a bit next year to learn the staff and get some at-bats. You never know whether a guy is ready until he gets out there ( see Romero). Barajas could be re-signed as a back up plan and moved to DH next year or the bench if Arencibia looks good.

The outfield will honestly and truly have Snider and Wells locked in for a few years. Snider will probably end up in Right IMO. Wells cannot be moved with his giant salary...we just have to pray for a return to form over the next few seasons.

I feel really a Halladay trade should net us a young starting #1 or #2 pitcher and probably a staring outfielder...that will end up being the third spot in the outfield either CF or LF with Wells filling in that final spot.

C, 3B, SS and 1B are big questions for us heading into the next few years. I think Arencibia, Encarnacion/Batista, Scutaro and Lind will be the short term fixes there. Hopefully the farm comes around but the next GM of the team will have to be creative in filling those holes.

[imgrindin247]

I think you're missing quite a few prospects on this list. Some of those guys you got on your list aren't really even prospects or are fringe ones. Our best positional prospects are mostly playing in the lower levels in the Minors.

Tyler Pastornicky has probably passed Justin Jackson on the SS Depth Chart. He's a year younger, hits for a decent average, good BB/K Ratio and blazing speed on the base paths. He's the prototypical Lead-Off Hitter.

Adam Loewen is another player to keep an eye on in the OF. He has an excellent batting eye and is putting up respectable numbers after struggling early on and taking 6 years away from hitting. He's 25 now, but could find himself in the Majors in a year or 2.

We also have some very young Latin prospects in Carlos Perez and Gustavo Pierre. Perez is only 19, but is progressing well and may leap in front of Arencibia at some point. Pierre is 18 and has shown some pop in his bat as well. He's a SS right now, but probably moves to the OF in the future.

Eric Thames and Darin Mastroianni are also potential OF's. Mastroianni is a slap ball hitter, who draws lots of walks. He has incredible speed on the basepaths and plays CF. He could very be a 4th OF in a year or 2. Thames is another good player who can't stay healthy. He's an excellent hitter and has some speed as well. Both players are as bit old for the levels they play at, but both could contribute potentially in the Majors.

Ahrens has been a big disappointment. He's still young even playing in Dunedin, but he hasn't shown very much his first 2 years of pro ball.

I'm not all that high on Cooper either as he's pretty bad defensively and doesn't have much power for a 1st Basemen.

We've pretty much missed on all of our Toolsy type picks. Wilson, Brisker and Eiland have been awful so far.