This summer will be decision time

[Hemingway]

Ok, as far as trades go, I take the following line: When you are an top team with a strong chance at a title you can only make trades that help you win in the current season. No long term help that sacrifices short term success. Basically, this mindset (which I believe Danny adheres too) makes all but small trades hard to find.

But come the summer, we have to decide if we are still a top team. I think it comes down to health, specifically KG. Going into a total rebuild mode, ie miss the playoffs and try to get a good pick, seems out of the question. Signing Sheed seems to ensure that. It seems the most logical route will be to try and sign someone who can help. A decision will have to be made on spending part of the MLE on MD and we will have to see who is out there.

But if we fall apart this season or if Danny and Doc now more bad news about KG than we do, do they look to trade one of the big 3? Who would fetch the most? Who could we get?

Don't mean to be a pessimist, and before someone says "save this talk till the summer" let me say: 1 it is slow right now and 2 this is a message board.

[Bluewhale]

It is very similar to 20 years ago. 1989-1990 season. You have 3 HOF who are breaking down slowly. You have a young potential ASG player (Reginald C. Lewis , Rondo). Your team is still competitive, but an injury could ruin the season of title shoot. Window is closing, but still open.

I think Ainge know this, let's see what he can do with the huge expiring contract on his hand.

[ParticleMan]

i disagree that our guys are "breaking down". our guys aren't that old, theyre still all in their early 30's. none of them have ever had debilitating chronic injuries like LB's back or Kevin's foot. KG got kicked in the knee twice, and Paul got a weird infection from the shower -- does that really mean they're breaking down? really?

yes, theyre older which means they will on average have more injuries. but youth isn't a cure for injuries either-- how many games has Big Al played since the Trade?

i think our window is genuinely about 3 years, right in line with sheed's deal. at that point it's all about who's healthy in *June*. january doesn't matter. the year we were healthy, we won it all. last year the lakers were healthy, and they won it all. the last time the spurs were fully healthy, they won it all. when we're healthy we have as good a shot at anyone at the title. i don't think you toss that out the window on some slight statistical trend that older guys get injured more. all our guys are in pretty damn good shape, and are fitness fanatics. i'll take my chances so long as they can play at a high level when healthy, which i think is at least for 2-3 more years.

[Zin5]

We can't really set a window. Given the ages of our core players, we have to take it year by year. At least from what we've seen this year, we'll be able to contend next year. The real decision time will be the summer after that, when we're going to be looking at re-signing Paul and what to do with Sheed and KG's potentially expiring deals.

The only main question for this next summer is what to do with Ray. He's definitely taken a step back from the very efficient player he was last year. He can step it up from time to time, but not nearly in the capacity he once could. He's still a good player, but he's our fourth best player and that's pretty clear now. Last year he looked to still be on par with the big three, but now it looks like Rondo's even a more crucial part of this team (more to do with Rondo stepping it up tbh). He's still a great third option for this team and I'd like to keep him, but if an upgrade is available, I take it. I'd also try to not sign him for any longer than two more years, so his, KG's and Sheed's contracts all expire at the same time.

[Hemingway]

I wonder if there is the option of a sign and trade in the summer. Would anyone want him for big money? Maybe for a year to make him an expiring, can we do that?

[ParticleMan]

i agree that Ray is the guy i would look to move if some young swingman stud comes available for >MLE. i dont know if he would agree to a sign and trade, tho. i think he likes it here in boston. i wouldn't mind bringing him back either but it would have to be at rondo money or less.

we'll see how Tony does the rest of the year but i think we might resign either TA or Quis depending on who fits in our budget. if we cut ray's salary, and have scal drop off the books, we could pick up another MLE player. i think there are some FAs who we could get for the MLE or less who would fit in well. Raja Bell comes to mind. Josh Howard if the Mavs don't pick up his exorbitant option. Maybe Mike Miller. Or Travis Outlaw if we want to add some hops.

[Bad-Thoma]

i disagree that our guys are "breaking down". our guys aren't that old, theyre still all in their early 30's. none of them have ever had debilitating chronic injuries like LB's back or Kevin's foot. KG got kicked in the knee twice, and Paul got a weird infection from the shower -- does that really mean they're breaking down? really?

yes, theyre older which means they will on average have more injuries. but youth isn't a cure for injuries either-- how many games has Big Al played since the Trade?

i think our window is genuinely about 3 years, right in line with sheed's deal. at that point it's all about who's healthy in *June*. january doesn't matter. the year we were healthy, we won it all. last year the lakers were healthy, and they won it all. the last time the spurs were fully healthy, they won it all. when we're healthy we have as good a shot at anyone at the title. i don't think you toss that out the window on some slight statistical trend that older guys get injured more. all our guys are in pretty damn good shape, and are fitness fanatics. i'll take my chances so long as they can play at a high level when healthy, which i think is at least for 2-3 more years.

this

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

I think the Celts need to win the title this year, or at the very minimum, get to the Finals, in order to extend their window. It's going to be tough to attract good free agents with MLE money if the team is seen as being in decline due to old age.

[Zin5]

I wonder if there is the option of a sign and trade in the summer. Would anyone want him for big money? Maybe for a year to make him an expiring, can we do that?

It's possible and I was thinking about it. A team that could be losing a FA might want something back rather than nothing. It'd be most appealing to teams over the cap, meaning we aren't getting Lebron or Wade back, because both teams could always straight up sign someone else with their capspace. Couldn't see Toronto wanting to help us or give up someone as good as Bosh in any sign and trade.

Someone like Joe Johnson might be available, but I wouldn't hold my breathe, Atlanta will be under the cap, but maybe not enough to sign someone even of the caliber of Ray.

Also, it depends on Ray. It'd take two teams and two players willing to go through with it to get it done, so I wouldn't count on it. I'd guess we'll bring him back at 2 years, $12M per (just enough to displace the use of the full MLE next offseason from what he's being paid this year). Maybe we can at least not add salary for after 2012 and see if we can snag Durant from OKC then (not possible in 2011, it'd require Durant taking the QO, which I don't see happening, because OKC would match anything in 2011).

[theman]

I'm still pushing for T. Allen/Scal/House for Hinrich. Does it make Boston a stud team down the road? No. But it definitely help us win now.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Screw the summer, NOW is decision time. The point about breaking up a veteran core is that it's DIFFICULT, that's why the last Celtics champ didn't do it, that's why everyone hated Jerry Krause in Chicago for doing it.

We look like the Sacramento Kings from a few years ago - when everyone was healthy and on the same page, they were an elite team - but never won a championship due to injuries. We are a Kings-model team that had one great, healthy year and got to win a title.

If you build a team around 1-2 superstars (Tim Duncan, Kobe/Shaq, Wade/Shaq, Lebron, Howard, etc.) it's easier because you're only relying on one or two players to stay healthy. If you build a team around 3+ very good vets, you need all of them to stay off the injured list. It's harder to keep 3-5 necessary contributors healthy than 1 franchise player.

You want to trade your core right BEFORE they start to decline, not during or after the decline. If you can deal Ray Allen for a younger wing, take on a mediocre or bad deal to get a 1st-round pick, you absolutely do it - ESPECIALLY because Allen looks to be at the point where he could resign here after a buyout and re-up for 3-4 seasons at the MLE. That's not rebuilding, that's improving.

[Hemingway]

I'm still pushing for T. Allen/Scal/House for Hinrich. Does it make Boston a stud team down the road? No. But it definitely help us win now.

I like that a lot. Losing Eddie would be a little sad but for goodness sake, we need a better white guy than Scal.

[chakdaddy]

Screw the summer, NOW is decision time. The point about breaking up a veteran core is that it's DIFFICULT, that's why the last Celtics champ didn't do it, that's why everyone hated Jerry Krause in Chicago for doing it.
...
You want to trade your core right BEFORE they start to decline, not during or after the decline. If you can deal Ray Allen for a younger wing, take on a mediocre or bad deal to get a 1st-round pick, you absolutely do it -

But you don't trade Ray Allen for a scrub someone is trying to get rid of, just to say you did something decisive.

I've always been a proponent of keeping a veteran core. The Bulls didn't have any more success than we did, and they blew chances at more titles. At least we had decent runs in '91 and '92, and had a legit shot at a championship if Bird stayed healthy in '91.

It's almost impossible to 'reload' and stay a contender. LA managed to do it with Wallace's help, ultimately trading Shaq for Gasol. You have to have your stars spaced perfectly at different stages (Shaq/Kobe) or really luck out late in the draft (Parker/Ginobili).

Like you said, you have to trade your stars before they decline; it's too late for us to do that. They were nearly already nearly declining when we got them, and now they have much more value for us than they do to anyone else. It's a matter of rebuilding now, or rebuilding later, and there's no real reason to close the window just to get a head start on rebuilding. Just wait a couple years, let guys retire, and then rebuild, rather than pissing off fans by trading aging stars for younger mediocrities. McHale for Sam Perkins never would have helped us. Ainge for Kleine/Pinckney got us nowhere. Better off to keep the guys and try to score in the draft.

[Andrew McCeltic]

The Pacers nearly 'reloaded' without dropping out of contention, in trading Dale and Antonio Davis for Jermaine O'Neal and Jonathan Bender - if Bender had been healthy, he'd have been an impact player.

No one's talking about trading GPA, and I agree with you that Pierce and Garnett have more value to us than anyone else. But Allen is expiring, we could get him back after 30 days, and a lot of teams might overpay for cap relief.

I was too young to follow the late 80s/early 90s teams, but I remember reading in a couple places about supposed offers that had been made to Boston- one was McHale for Karl Malone, another was Dee Brown (pre-injury) for Gary Payton (after 1 season).

We're committed to Rondo now in the immediate future, but the rumors this summer suggest Ainge sees plenty of room to upgrade the roster. Rondo for Evans/Thompson would have been interesting, likewise Rondo/Ray for Hamilton/Prince/Stuckey. Neither is a talent/chemistry upgrade, but they aren't downgrades either and would have opened up more trade avenues.

[chakdaddy]

The Pacers nearly 'reloaded' without dropping out of contention, in trading Dale and Antonio Davis for Jermaine O'Neal and Jonathan Bender - if Bender had been healthy, he'd have been an impact player.

I was too young to follow the late 80s/early 90s teams, but I remember reading in a couple places about supposed offers that had been made to Boston- one was McHale for Karl Malone, another was Dee Brown (pre-injury) for Gary Payton (after 1 season).

I would argue that the Pacers were never even really in contention, and that they hurt their chances by trying to rebuild on the fly by dumping Antonio Davis; Bender was intriguing but was never great even when he was healthy.

Never heard those McHale/Brown rumors. Brown was young pre-injury anyway, and was in the same draft as Payton anyway, that doesn't make much sense, unless Seattle was impressed with Brown and was losing patience with Payton, he wasn't great as a rookie. (I remember when I was a kid going into the draft saying the celtics have to take Payton or Rumeal Robinson, even though both would be long gone with they picked...I was pissed when they took Dee Brown, who I had never heard of...)

Never heard the McHale/Malone rumor. But I don't know that it sounds plausible - from '85-87, McHale was an up and coming superstar big man, and Malone was unproven. We'd never do the deal then. By '88, McHale was injury prone, and Malone was an established star. Utah would never do it then.

What I always heard was McHale for Perkins+Schrempf around '89 or '90. Schrempf turned out great, but Perkins was never anything special. Herb Williams wound up fetching the same package.

No one's talking about trading GPA, and I agree with you that Pierce and Garnett have more value to us than anyone else. But Allen is expiring, we could get him back after 30 days, and a lot of teams might overpay for cap relief.

The 30 day thing is vaguely possible, but I don't think it's anything we can count on. If we trade him somewhere, he might be even more useful for that team to keep for a potential sign-and-trade.

I just think it's really unlikely that taking back 20 million in salary that another team wants to dump is going to be beneficial to us.

[Hemingway]

With just Rondo and Perk we have the basis for at least a perennial late seed playoff team. The 1 and 5 spots are the hardest to fill, we can always pick up guys at the 2, 3 and 4 spots to score. Hovering around .500 is no good but we can't give away rondo and perk just to tank as we might not get anyone as good as them even with a top pick. If I were Danny I would look at Ray deals where we get him back now, deals for him in the summer and always be looking for a way to bring in young talent with a high ceiling.

We do have one thing that most teams do not: a culture of winning. I don't think Rondo and Perk would have developed this well on the Clippers or most other teams. Our vets could prove valuable if they train their replacements. Kirk Hinrich could be a good option, Deng too for that matter. Id roll with this next season:

Rondo
Kirk
Pierce/Deng
KG/Sheed
Perk

Than all we would have to do is find a PF of the future. Could a line up like:

Rondo
Kirk
Deng/PP
Bosh or Amare
Perk

win a title 3-5 years down the line?