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Summer cap space

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evildallas
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Summer cap space 

Post#1 » by evildallas » Fri Feb 19, 2010 3:45 am

AKA who can bid on Joe or Amare once Lebron, Wade, and Bosh re-up with their current teams. I calculated this quickly using rough draft pick hold estimates and the 53.6M cap estimate that was the high end of the NBA memo on the upcoming cap (50.4 was the low end). For each team I assumed full renouncing of marginal players. For Miami, I left the max cap hold in for Wade assuming that they won't renounce him. I assume that for the players that matter the max starting salary for a true free agent is most likely 16.1M (based on 53.6). I also am using .5M for free agent roster fill out salaries. These are not exact.

New York (4 players, 17.8M, no pick holds) 32.8M free
New Jersey (7 players, 23M, 1 high pick hold) 25.6M free
Miami (5 players including Wade, 26M 2 medium pick holds) 22.6M free
Washington (6 players including Gilbert, 28M, 1 high pick hold) 20.1M free
Chicago (7 players, 33M, 1 medium pick hold) 17.6M free
Sacramento (9 players, 33M, 1 high pick hold) 16.6M free
LA Clippers (4 players, 32.6M, 1 mid-lottery hold) 16.5M free

Unless I screwed up the math it looks like 2 full max players is wishful thinking for anyone but Miami and New York. BTW, if Cleveland, Toronto, Atlanta, Phoenix, or Utah lose their big dollar free agent they still won't have room to pursue a max contract. OKC has some cap room, but not enough to offer max.

My gut feeling is that Lebron lets his clock run backing up the process for everyone else while he is the center of the universe for a little longer. It'll be interesting to see who figures they have no shot at Lebron and moves on to option 2 and beyond.

Of that list I'm not sure I buy Sacramento or Washington going after a single max player this summer, but I could be wrong.

I put together this list to satisfy my own curiosity and to ask who's going to come after Joe?
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Re: Summer cap space 

Post#2 » by D21 » Fri Feb 19, 2010 1:32 pm

evildallas wrote:New York (5 players, 20.5M, no pick holds) 29.6M free


With Jeffries and Hill out, they have now $35,817,095 in cap room if the salary cap is set at $53.6M.
They only have Curry, Chandler, Gallinari and Douglas as garanteed contracts, for a total of $17,782,905.
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Re: Summer cap space 

Post#3 » by evildallas » Fri Feb 19, 2010 4:49 pm

D21 wrote:
evildallas wrote:New York (5 players, 20.5M, no pick holds) 29.6M free


With Jeffries and Hill out, they have now $35,817,095 in cap room if the salary cap is set at $53.6M.
They only have Curry, Chandler, Gallinari and Douglas as garanteed contracts, for a total of $17,782,905.


Missed Hill. I'll update the original chart. Thanks.

On that 35.8 figure doesn't a certain amount get held for minimum contracts to fill out a roster or do I have that part wrong? It wouldn't affect NY enough, but I just want to be right in my assumptions.
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Re: Summer cap space 

Post#4 » by evildallas » Fri Feb 19, 2010 5:18 pm

In retrospect I could have waited a day:

True Hoop write up

Miami Heat: $30.67 million in 2010-11 payroll
New York Knicks: $18.64 million in 2010-11 payroll
New Jersey Nets: $26.63 million in 2010-11 payroll
Chicago Bulls: $31.85 million in 2010-11 payroll
Washington Wizards: $41.02 million in 2010-11 payroll
Sacramento Kings: $34.0 million in 2010-11 payroll
Los Angeles Clippers: $33.53 million in 2010-11 payroll

* LeBron James
* Dwyane Wade
* Chris Bosh
* Kobe Bryant
* Yao Ming
* Dirk Nowitzki
* Joe Johnson
* Carlos Boozer
* Amare Stoudemire
* Marcus Camby
* Manu Ginobili
* Ray Allen
* Paul Pierce
* Rudy Gay (restricted)
* Luis Scola (restricted)
* Brendan Haywood
* Kenyon Martin
* Tyson Chandler
* Josh Howard (team option)
* Joel Przybilla


Their list of potential free-agents at the end was sensationalized a bit. If Kobe opts out, he's resigning in LA. Same story with Nowitzki in Dallas. Yao isn't opting out due to health. Neither is Tyson Chandler. Pierce is an uncertain, he's due 21.5M and would probably like to do an extension prior to the new CBA. He would most likely be taken care of in Boston, but there is risk involved in it.
Miami includes Wade and Washington includes a couple of assumptions that can be dropped for maximum room.
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Re: Summer cap space 

Post#5 » by pja123 » Fri Feb 19, 2010 7:10 pm

The two teams that worry me most regarding a potential JJ exit are New York and Chicago. If the Knicks miss out LeBron, I think they're going to make an all-out push for Johnson. But maybe JJ won't be so keane on playing for D'Antoni again and the Knicks supporting cast has much to be desired.

The Bulls could be a very enticing situation for JJ. They have a gaping hole at 2G and JJ fits exactly what they need. Plus, they have a really strong core of Rose, Deng, Noah, Gibson, and even James Johnson.

We'll have to wait and see what happens.
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Re: Summer cap space 

Post#6 » by raleigh » Fri Feb 19, 2010 7:41 pm

The Hawks already offered JJ $15M/year in an extension. Adding the fifth year (that they couldn't offer in an extension) gets them up to $75M. A cap of $53.6M means that another team could sign him outright to a $93M contract.

JJ reportedly asked for $17M/year, which would be $85M total, or almost exactly a "splitting of the difference" between the max and the Hawks' first offer. My guess is that JJ's camp will get that $85M offer from the Hawks (similar to what Ray Allen and Brandon Roy got), but I can't see the additional $8M over five years being a deal-breaker for either party.

If a team is desperate enough to "Rashard" a sixth year (at what, $22M?) in a S&T trade, then all bets are off.
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Re: Summer cap space 

Post#7 » by D21 » Fri Feb 19, 2010 9:13 pm

evildallas wrote:Hoop write up:
New York Knicks: $18.64 million in 2010-11 payroll

They certianly add Bill Walker, whol has 2 years left on his contract, but if he's waived atr the end of the season, the 2 years left won't count.

evildallas wrote:On that 35.8 figure doesn't a certain amount get held for minimum contracts to fill out a roster or do I have that part wrong? It wouldn't affect NY enough, but I just want to be right in my assumptions.


That's right, but you have two point of view for that thing.
You can add all the roster charge now, and you will get the official value, but in the same time, if it make 32M instead of 35.8M, they won't use it on one guy, so the other POV is to say they can use "up to 35.8M" since each time they sign a player, a minimum roster spot is cancel.

The roster charge will be $473,604.
With 4 players if Walker is waived, you add 8 (or 9, I am not sure) roster charge = 3,788,832
17,782,905 + 3,788,832 = 21,571,737, so 32,028,263 of cap room.

But if they sign 2 players at 10M, then 5 players at 2M, they would have 11 players with 47,782,905, so nearly 6M left for the 12th player, maybe 5.5M if there is still the roster charge when you sign the 12th player.
So it would give you "up to 35.8M" (or 35.3M if there is still one more roster charge), and not only 32,028,263.

It's my understanding, and I am sorry if it's not very clear ;)

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