Bears 8.0: Matt Eberflus FIRED

[Almost Retired]

Taking bets....Will Eberflus be fired after getting embarrassed by the Packers again or after getting embarrassed on national tv against the Lions on Thanksgiviing?

I don't see the Bears firing Flus during the season. But if we stay on the current trajectory then I think they dump his ass as soon as the season is over. I certainly hope so. He's in over his head.

Yea, i agree that Poles wouldn't pull the trigger mid season. It would have an extreme loss and I have a bad feeling about Thanksgiving.

A few more losses and we will be cheering for more losses to improve our Draft situation. If we aren't in the playoff hunt then just go to a development mode. Play the youngsters more. Austin Booker. Kiran Amegadjie. Terrel Scott. Activate Collin Johnson who looked good in preseason.

[molepharmer]

For Kmet just try the double fake screen, Kmet over the middle again. If he's not open, so be it. It's not like Bears are completing passes so often that they don't need to re-run a play that actually worked. Or have him be one of the targets of the screen and leak one of the WR out down the middle.

[MalagaBulls]

2025 Mock off season because we aren´t going anywhere again and we will probably end up 6-11 worse case scenario IMHO.

Here´s what I would love to see happen and am just throwing sh** at the wall as I do every year from my recliner. The only
move I will put my hand in the fire for is signing Trey Smith who is Pro bowl bound and possibly AP.

Coaches:

Fire Eberflus HC - Hire Ben Johnson from Lions (No Brainer)
Fire Waldron OC - Hire Brad Kragthorpe (Good Bengals QB coach who has 2 years with Burrow and their backup)
Fire Washington DC - Hire Jim Schwartz from the Browns (Plenty of 4-3 experience and loves blitzing)

Free Agency:

Starting with 74M and make some cuts:

Cut Davis, nuf said. Save 9M
Cut Gerald Everett. Save 5M
Cut Ryan Bates. Save 5M

New CAP - 74M + 19M = 93M

Own FA´s:

Sanborn LB, 3/12M w/ 8M guaranteed & 2M 2025 salary + 6M SB. 4M CAP hit
Blackwell ST, 2/3M w/ 2M guaranteed & 1M 2025 salary + 1 SB. 1.5M CAP hit
Jenkins LG, 3/39M w/ 27M guaranteed & 3M 2025 salary + 18M SB. 9M CAP hit.
** He has an out in 2027. **
Taylor Edge, 1/6M w/ 4M guaranteed & 1.5M in achievable bonuses. 4M CAP hit
Scales LS, 2/3.8M 2/ 3M guaranteed & 1.4M in SB. 1.9M CAP hit.

93M - 20.4M = 72.6M

FA´s

1. Trey Smith RG, 5/105M w/ 65M guaranteed & 30M SB + 3M Salary. 9M Cap Hit.
2. Ronnie Stanley LT, 3/51M w/ 33M guaranteed & 24M SB + 4M Salary. 12M Cap Hit.
3. Trade for Travon Walker from Jaguars (2026 3rd which can become a 2nd if he makes 2nd AP team).
extend him to 4/84M with 50M guaranteed if has break out year. Potential 24M SB & 5M first year
salary. 2025 CAP Hit = 5.8M.
4. Amari Cooper WR, 3/42M w/ 24M guaranteed & 18M SB. A bit of a splurge as a 3rd WR
but hopefully with Johnson & Kragthorpe onboard the distribution of the passing will be a little
bit more equal. 2025 Cap hit = 3M salary + 6M SB = 9M.
5. Mike Pennel DT, 2/7M w/ 4M guaranteed & a 2M SB. A very good run stuffer to back up the primary DT´s.
2025 Cap hit = 2M.

72.6M - 37.8M = 34.8M left for rookie class & 2025 contingency
Draft

As of this writing we have the following picks:

1-18, 2-35, & 2-49. My wild guess is we wind up with 1-14, 2-36, & 2-45.
A really good set of picks that should get us over the hump.

1-14: We select OT Wyatt Milum as our future LT. Jones becomes the swing tackle with
Stanley manning the blind side for a minimum of 2 seasons at which point Milum should be
ready to step in for the next decade. Amegadjie swings inside to become the swing guard
and will ultimately replace Jenkins who has injury risk written all over him.
2-35: With this pick we select Tyler Booker who can actually play center but is a massive
specimen at 6.5/330. He is a nimble IOL roadgrader who destroys the 1st & 2nd level
defenders. I see a switch to center as something natural.
2-45: Going with a slightly different approach and will draft a TE with this high pick.
I like a rookie here to groom with all the other weapons. I pick Coslton Loveland from Michigan
who is 6.5 & 250. He runs a 4.9 40 and is an excellent receiver. He has a good year
of development left in the NFL to become an exciting & potentially elite weapon.
He has to work on his blocking but will be a great day 2 investment.
3-80: The final pick is used to select a hybrid DB who can excel in multiple roles &
schemes and has great size/speed. Due to an amazing amount of luck with a deep DB class
he will likely be available at our 3rd round pick. We pick Sonny Styles from OSU who I have
to play safety and ultimately groom to play SS although he can slide into FS should we
continue to have injury concerns with Quanny.
5th-7th: BPA

[Dresden]

Kelce had 14 receptions tonight. Meanwhile our TE didn't even have a ball thrown to him last game.

Mahomes/Kelce is possibly the greatest QB/TE combo ever and he's presently their #1 receiving option. We can argue whether the Bears are using Kmet enough (probably not), but nothing going on with Mahomes/Kelce is much of a relevant data point in that discussion.

I think it is relevant because Mahomes demonstrates how to be successful in this league. He, like Brady, relies on his TE a lot, especially as a bailout when he needs to pick up a first down. It seems like whatever routes Kielce is running, is something the Bears could be incorporating to give Caleb that same sort of safety net. Kmet is not on par with Kelce or Gronk, but he's shown he's capable of being an above average target and it's puzzling why he's being used so infrequently, esp. given the Bears problems in pass protection and in generating offense.

[Dresden]

Mahomes/Kelce is possibly the greatest QB/TE combo ever and he's presently their #1 receiving option. We can argue whether the Bears are using Kmet enough (probably not), but nothing going on with Mahomes/Kelce is much of a relevant data point in that discussion.

I think it matters in the sense that a good TE is always a young QB's best friend. You go 22-41 and no throws to the biggest, and closest guy to the QB? This team.....

No reason why this can't be the next super duo:

Manning/Clark
Bledsoe/Coates
Big Ben/Heath Miller
Brees/Jimmy Graham
Elway/Sharpe
Foutes/Winslow
Romo/Witten
Rivers/Gates
Brady/Gronk

I mean Kmet doesn't seem like a particularly elite TE, and the Bears have what would appear to be a pretty elite group at WR.

Even with the goose egg, Kmet is having typical season for his level of talent (my opinion obviously) and his own historical norms. For sure, you'd expect him to get some targets every game, but he's on pace for the 2nd most receiving yards of his career, so it doesn't seem to be a terrible trend overall.

Sometimes it just goes that way in an individual game.

Using Kmet's previous production as a yardstick for how he's being used this year is pointless. Our passing attack has been one of the worst in the league the last few years. You would hope that with a new OC and a new QB who is supposed to be a generational talent that his usage and numbers would go up significantly. I know there are only so many passes to go around, but as Mahomes and so many other great QB's have shown, your tight end can and should be an important part of the passing game, esp. when you're having trouble getting enough time to throw to WRs'.

[Dresden]

kmet is the #4 or #5 option given the offensive personnel we have. it's not good that he didn't get any targets, but it's not a complete unimaginable failure of the offense either, and it's silly to act like that's a major reason why things went poorly on sunday

He is currently the most efficient of the offensive targets. We should go to him more, especially when the offense is looking as inefficient as it is.

He is blowing the team away in receiving success%, catch% and yards per target. Probably has to do with his 27 catches for 303 yards, 3 TD's and 16 first downs only 30 targets. Being that he had 26 catches on 29 targets two games ago. Basically ignoring him in the last two games while the team struggled is beyond ridiculous. If other players WR's were blowing up and the offense was humming, I could see it. But that isn't the case at all.

BTW - Swift is our 2nd most efficient pass catcher. Waldron forgot what was said early in the season. Throw to the RBs' and TE's. Easy completions. Keep the chains moving.

Good points!

[Dresden]

2025 Mock off season because we aren´t going anywhere again and we will probably end up 6-11 worse case scenario IMHO.

Here´s what I would love to see happen and am just throwing sh** at the wall as I do every year from my recliner. The only
move I will put my hand in the fire for is signing Trey Smith who is Pro bowl bound and possibly AP.

Coaches:

Fire Eberflus HC - Hire Ben Johnson from Lions (No Brainer)
Fire Waldron OC - Hire Brad Kragthorpe (Good Bengals QB coach who has 2 years with Burrow and their backup)
Fire Washington DC - Hire Jim Schwartz from the Browns (Plenty of 4-3 experience and loves blitzing)

Free Agency:

Starting with 74M and make some cuts:

Cut Davis, nuf said. Save 9M
Cut Gerald Everett. Save 5M
Cut Ryan Bates. Save 5M

New CAP - 74M + 19M = 93M

Own FA´s:

Sanborn LB, 3/12M w/ 8M guaranteed & 2M 2025 salary + 6M SB. 4M CAP hit
Blackwell ST, 2/3M w/ 2M guaranteed & 1M 2025 salary + 1 SB. 1.5M CAP hit
Jenkins LG, 3/39M w/ 27M guaranteed & 3M 2025 salary + 18M SB. 9M CAP hit.
** He has an out in 2027. **
Taylor Edge, 1/6M w/ 4M guaranteed & 1.5M in achievable bonuses. 4M CAP hit
Scales LS, 2/3.8M 2/ 3M guaranteed & 1.4M in SB. 1.9M CAP hit.

93M - 20.4M = 72.6M

FA´s

1. Trey Smith RG, 5/105M w/ 65M guaranteed & 30M SB + 3M Salary. 9M Cap Hit.
2. Ronnie Stanley LT, 3/51M w/ 33M guaranteed & 24M SB + 4M Salary. 12M Cap Hit.
3. Trade for Travon Walker from Jaguars (2026 3rd which can become a 2nd if he makes 2nd AP team).
extend him to 4/84M with 50M guaranteed if has break out year. Potential 24M SB & 5M first year
salary. 2025 CAP Hit = 5.8M.
4. Amari Cooper WR, 3/42M w/ 24M guaranteed & 18M SB. A bit of a splurge as a 3rd WR
but hopefully with Johnson & Kragthorpe onboard the distribution of the passing will be a little
bit more equal. 2025 Cap hit = 3M salary + 6M SB = 9M.
5. Mike Pennel DT, 2/7M w/ 4M guaranteed & a 2M SB. A very good run stuffer to back up the primary DT´s.
2025 Cap hit = 2M.

72.6M - 37.8M = 34.8M left for rookie class & 2025 contingency
Draft

As of this writing we have the following picks:

1-18, 2-35, & 2-49. My wild guess is we wind up with 1-14, 2-36, & 2-45.
A really good set of picks that should get us over the hump.

1-14: We select OT Wyatt Milum as our future LT. Jones becomes the swing tackle with
Stanley manning the blind side for a minimum of 2 seasons at which point Milum should be
ready to step in for the next decade. Amegadjie swings inside to become the swing guard
and will ultimately replace Jenkins who has injury risk written all over him.
2-35: With this pick we select Tyler Booker who can actually play center but is a massive
specimen at 6.5/330. He is a nimble IOL roadgrader who destroys the 1st & 2nd level
defenders. I see a switch to center as something natural.
2-45: Going with a slightly different approach and will draft a TE with this high pick.
I like a rookie here to groom with all the other weapons. I pick Coslton Loveland from Michigan
who is 6.5 & 250. He runs a 4.9 40 and is an excellent receiver. He has a good year
of development left in the NFL to become an exciting & potentially elite weapon.
He has to work on his blocking but will be a great day 2 investment.
3-80: The final pick is used to select a hybrid DB who can excel in multiple roles &
schemes and has great size/speed. Due to an amazing amount of luck with a deep DB class
he will likely be available at our 3rd round pick. We pick Sonny Styles from OSU who I have
to play safety and ultimately groom to play SS although he can slide into FS should we
continue to have injury concerns with Quanny.
5th-7th: BPA

I like your plan. Other DC's to consider are Robert Saleh, recently the HC of the Jets, who previously was the Niners DC. And who was that other DC we had for awhile, who was also a former DC in SF? He was really good.

[dougthonus]

I think it is relevant because Mahomes demonstrates how to be successful in this league. He, like Brady, relies on his TE a lot, especially as a bailout when he needs to pick up a first down. It seems like whatever routes Kielce is running, is something the Bears could be incorporating to give Caleb that same sort of safety net. Kmet is not on par with Kelce or Gronk, but he's shown he's capable of being an above average target and it's puzzling why he's being used so infrequently, esp. given the Bears problems in pass protection and in generating offense.

The idea that you associate the success with relying on his TE, rather than relying on a generationally talented receiving option is where you lost me.

[dougthonus]

Using Kmet's previous production as a yardstick for how he's being used this year is pointless. Our passing attack has been one of the worst in the league the last few years. You would hope that with a new OC and a new QB who is supposed to be a generational talent that his usage and numbers would go up significantly. I know there are only so many passes to go around, but as Mahomes and so many other great QB's have shown, your tight end can and should be an important part of the passing game, esp. when you're having trouble getting enough time to throw to WRs'.

You also added a 1200 yard receiver and a draft choice that looks like a #1 receiving talent type option on the team. I would not suspect that on a team where Kmet is probably the 4th best receiving option that his production rises vs the team he was probably the 2nd best receiving option, even if the QB play has improved some.

And Kmet has been an important part of the passing game. He's 3rd in receiving yards, and he isn't not that far behind our #1 and #2 guys, whom are high end talent WRs.

[panthermark]

Using Kmet's previous production as a yardstick for how he's being used this year is pointless. Our passing attack has been one of the worst in the league the last few years. You would hope that with a new OC and a new QB who is supposed to be a generational talent that his usage and numbers would go up significantly. I know there are only so many passes to go around, but as Mahomes and so many other great QB's have shown, your tight end can and should be an important part of the passing game, esp. when you're having trouble getting enough time to throw to WRs'.

You also added a 1200 yard receiver and a draft choice that looks like a #1 receiving talent type option on the team. I would not suspect that on a team where Kmet is probably the 4th best receiving option that his production rises vs the team he was probably the 2nd best receiving option, even if the QB play has improved some.

And Kmet has been an important part of the passing game. He's 3rd in receiving yards, and he isn't not that far behind our #1 and #2 guys, whom are high end talent WRs.

The point is the last two games (and the 1st game), the offense looked like garbage. In those 3 games, Kmet had a total of 2 catches for 18 yards on 2 targets. So when you look at his numbers as a whole, that all came in about a 5 game stretch where the offense and CW were showing improvement....and where Kmet had 25 catches for 284 yards and 3TD's on scant 28 targets. That is 80 catch/1000 yard/10TD elite TE production within a somewhat more efficient offence than we are seeing right now.

[dougthonus]

The point is the last two games (and the 1st game), the offense looked like garbage. In those 3 games, Kmet had a total of 2 catches for 18 yards on 2 targets. So when you look at his numbers as a whole, that all came in about a 5 game stretch where the offense and CW were showing improvement....and where Kmet had 25 catches for 284 yards and 3TD's on scant 28 targets. That is 80 catch/1000 yard/10TD elite TE production within a somewhat more efficient offence than we are seeing right now.

This discussion reminds me of Minnesota implementing the Randy Ratio, where they decided that when we win we throw 40% of our passes to moss and throw deep ones or something. Instead of thinking, well when Randy Moss is able to beat the coverage and those throws make sense, we often win, but that just throwing them isn't what causes the wins.

We also played two of the worst defenses in the league in those other games, and so correlating the offensive success to Kmet's production isn't necessarily true vs correlating his production to the coverage and opportunities that existed within the games.

Generally speaking, I agree Kmet should be more than zero involved, just that those types of games happen sometimes, and that can be do to many reasons. Saying Kmet would have elite TE numbers if we only count his good games, isn't much of an argument to me, nor is saying, see how well we did when this guy who has never shown the capability to repeatedly have good games, had great games?

There is an issue of causality that I just disagree with in what I infer the points are being made relative to Kmet's quality as a player. I think it's good if we can get him involved, but I don't think he's a game breaking player that another team can't take away if they want to, and it's certainly possible teams started looking to defend him as more of a priority after a hot streak which is certainly just as reasonable and perhaps more reasonable as an alternative explanation than everyone involved just didn't think to ever throw him the ball.

[Dresden]

I think it is relevant because Mahomes demonstrates how to be successful in this league. He, like Brady, relies on his TE a lot, especially as a bailout when he needs to pick up a first down. It seems like whatever routes Kielce is running, is something the Bears could be incorporating to give Caleb that same sort of safety net. Kmet is not on par with Kelce or Gronk, but he's shown he's capable of being an above average target and it's puzzling why he's being used so infrequently, esp. given the Bears problems in pass protection and in generating offense.

The idea that you associate the success with relying on his TE, rather than relying on a generationally talented receiving option is where you lost me.

You don't think other teams aren't studying what the Chiefs do on offense so that they might learn a few things? Or what the Patriots did when they had Brady and Gronk? Or do you think they just say "well, we don't have an all time QB and an all time TE so why bother trying to see what they're doing?"

[dougthonus]

You don't think other teams aren't studying what the Chiefs do on offense so that they might learn a few things? Or what the Patriots did when they had Brady and Gronk? Or do you think they just say "well, we don't have an all time QB and an all time TE so why bother trying to see what they're doing?"

Sure. That doesn't make Kmet a Gronk or Kelce level player though. He's probably 3a/b/c position in terms of receiving talent queue right now on this team instead of being the clear #2 guy like he was last year.

The overall increase in receiving talent makes a difference to his individual touches.

[dougthonus]

Looks like we moved Herbert for a 7th.

I think that trade makes sense based on what we're doing, though obviously not super impactful.

[panthermark]

I was hoping we would move Allen.
At the moment, CW isn't accurate enough, and this offense isn't efficient enough to feed everyone. Given Allen's stats, I doubt he is back next year.

I didn't mind the trade for Allen because at the time we only had Moore, VJJ and Scott under contract. But with Rome on the roster, Allen does not have much of a future here, especially if he wants a big contract. And the Bears need the assets for the O-line.

[Ben Wilson25]

A big part of the reason I’ve never liked Eberflus and wanted him replaced this summer is that when he speaks he sounds like a boob; exactly like Vinny Del Negro used to. Every press conference I’m expecting him to say “We don’t go into these games with any predeceived notions, right?”

[patryk7754]

I don't see the Bears firing Flus during the season. But if we stay on the current trajectory then I think they dump his ass as soon as the season is over. I certainly hope so. He's in over his head.

Yea, i agree that Poles wouldn't pull the trigger mid season. It would have an extreme loss and I have a bad feeling about Thanksgiving.

A few more losses and we will be cheering for more losses to improve our Draft situation. If we aren't in the playoff hunt then just go to a development mode. Play the youngsters more. Austin Booker. Kiran Amegadjie. Terrel Scott. Activate Collin Johnson who looked good in preseason.

Honestly, I’ve tried to be indifferent to win/losses because I desperately want Ben Johnson as coach and I think that only happens if we miss the playoffs.

I would still try and put the best OL out ther. I don’t think its worth risking stunting Williams just to test out potential

[patryk7754]

I was listening to the rich eisen show and he mentioned that he “keeps hearing” that Ben Johnson wants the bears job. Eisen is usually better than solid with he “reports” on these types of rumors

[patryk7754]

Here’s the clip of eisen talking about Johnson. It’s around the last 45 seconds of the video

https://youtu.be/Bxuq4yb90dQ?si=h-DKV71Itysxv0J8

[dice]

I was hoping we would move Allen.
At the moment, CW isn't accurate enough, and this offense isn't efficient enough to feed everyone. Given Allen's stats, I doubt he is back next year.

he won't be back. trade could have easily been sold as addition by subtraction. maybe the return was too embarrassing