MrSparkle wrote:Infinity2152 wrote:TheJordanRule wrote:Dayum! Strong points. Jamal Murray is not a bad comp offensively. Technically, Murray spreads it around a little better, averaging one more assist per game (4.7 vs 3.8) and about a thousand more assists per season but I think a convincing case could be made that Murray's extra assist per game comes from a function of working with better teammates instead of any real Lonzo-like or Giddey-like court vision. But I'm an old head and predictably defense is what I'm worried about most. The Jordan Pippen Harper PittBull type defense is what got us there in the past, and I know the kids love the three point bonanzas and regular 50+ point game outings of the new generation, but we can never lose sight of the fact that defense is 50 % of the game. On the flip side $30 million per year is only 15 % of the cap, which means I have no clue how contracts work these days. I remember when Jordan got $30 mil for one year. It was a big freakin deal. Coby resigned at 15 % of the cap could be worth it for the off chance that he continues to pick up his game. I think that's pretty unlikely. He's likely to become a Zach clone at best, and when I review Zach's time with us, I have to say that Zach was ultimately worth less than the sum of his parts. A cutting unfair analysis, perhaps. Jamal got 1.4 steals per game this past year, to Coby's 0.9 and while I understand that the steals stat is broken with its lack of ability to account for the times a defender got caught out of position gambling on a passing lane, I still think Coby's far more likely to be caught out of position than Jamal. Jamal's edge on steals, therefore, is a strong edge backed up by the numbers. What I enjoy about Coby on the defensive end is that he's not scared to crash the boards. For a guy his size, his defensive rebound ability has been greatly enhanced by his effort. I love that Coby's effort is never the problem. He upgraded his D. Maybe he can continue to do that. I'm still lukewarm on Coby, but I greatly respect your passion for resigning that kid.
One big problem. Comparison is very apt, I agree. How much did Jamal Murray just get? 4yr/$208 mill extension in 2024. Coby getting $30 mill AAV in 2026 looks like a huge paycut, doesn't it? Even if Murray is a little better, it's not much.
Looking at contracts of similar players: Jordan Poole, Jalen Green, Anfernee Simons, RJ Barrett, Jamal Murray, not seeing how $30 mill is close to Coby's max in 2026 with a good season. He's more efficient than most of those guys, and their defense isn't any better either.
Yeah, yet Coby rates worse than all of them in most categories ... has had a slower development cycle... and all 5 guys are definitively considered overpaid, so I don't know why a GM would go ahead and pull the same mistake overpaying such a player. The rewards are a mixed bag when you're saddled with an overpaid player. Jalen wasn't the deciding factor in the Suns trade, it was the #10 pick.
(And Jamal is a whole other category; his recent decline doesn't take away that he had a really dominant post-season and helped Jokic win the championship, right before he got paid)
I agree he'll get money, but I'm not sure about anything over $30M+. He hasn't established he's as good as a Jalen nor RJ (and he's 2 seasons older than JG).
I could pull up the stats, those guys were most certainly not better than Coby in most categories last year. Especially the second half of the season after Zach left.
Coby was scoring 15pts/gm his second season, to 12 for Poole, 8 for Simons, he was not that slow a developer, lol. His role changed and we had Zach Lavine.
You say all 5 guys are overpaid. That's the point. 25-26 old scoring guards are ALWAYS going to be overpaid. There will always be tons of teams willing to compete for them in free agency. No matter how bad the contract, they're still tradeable. Only reason Beal isn't gone is because of his no trade clause, somebody would take him. Orlando was just trying to get Coby, and give up firsts to do it reportedly. The logic can't be teams won't do what they always do, because they'll learn from it. Name just one 25-26 yr old guy scoring 20+ without serious injury issues that didn't get PAID as an unrestricted free agent. It will never happen, as long as some teams have cap space. Scoring and three point shooting is king now.
So let's not say it can't happen when it usually does. Now what is the worst case scenario for a Coby contract, not the best?