Luke Maile - There is hope!

[Skin Blues]

Luke Maile has always struck out a lot, which is a problem, and he hasn't done much else positive with the bat. He's never hit more than 5 HR total in any year, combined across all levels. He's slow, he's hit too many groundballs, and he hasn't walked. Those are all very bad things.

However, it's now 2018. WARNING: RIDICULOUSLY SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ANALYSIS AHEAD

In spring this year he struck out only thrice in 36 plate appearances (8%) and had 5 walks (14%). That's good, and even though it's spring, it's meaningful since K's and BB's are about the only things that really matter in terms of results that time of year. If he's slap-hitting, that still may not make him a good hitter, and he's typically put the ball on the ground about 50% of the time in his MLB and MiLB career. He also hit one HR which, for a guy that hit only 2 last year including his time in AA/AAA/MLB combined, is semi-notable. I don't have much batted ball data for spring, so that'll have to do in that regard.

What we do have for 2018 is StatCast data for the season thus far. He only has 9 plate appearances, but the results are about as good as they could be. Most results this early aren't even worth looking at, but granular StatCast data, batted ball distribution, and plate discipline stats are somewhat telling of trends. He's seen 38 pitches, and has only swung and missed once on 10 total swings, making contact the other 9 times. Of the 7 times he put the ball in play, only twice has it been on the ground. The other 5 are line drives (3) or flyballs (2). Of those 5 non-groundballs, he's hit the ones in the air really, really hard. 95MPH on average, including two doubles at 109MPH and 110MPH. For reference, he has never hit a ball harder than 105MPH a single time in his career up to this point.

So, we've seen Maile basically stop whiffing during both spring and the regular season and stopped striking out (9% vs 26% career) and he's walking more than ever (13% vs 3% career), over a span of 45 plate appearances. He's putting the ball in the air more than ever (29% GB-rate vs 49% career), and he's hit the ball significantly harder, two separate times, than he ever has before in his entire career. Yes, it's a small sample. But some things still matter in small samples. If Marco Estrada threw two pitches at 98MPH in a game, it wouldn't matter that it's just two pitches. It would be clear he has a new skill he didn't have last year. It will be very interesting to see how much of this contact and power combo Maile is able to maintain throughout the season, but I would put money on the fact that he has by far his best season at the plate in 2018.

[phillipmike]

I just wanna say that I think it's great Luke Maile has a supporter fighting for him, and that it isn't even his mom.

viewtopic.php?p=62571470#p62571470

Does that make you his dad?

[Lateral Quicks]

Well, he certainly had every incentive in the world to improve at the plate this off-season. He's already a ~0 WAR player despite his abysmal bat. If he can put up a .675-.700 OPS he'd be a really valuable player, especially for this team given we'd be wise to give Martin more regular time off.

The hard hit balls are encouraging. We need to see more of them before we chalk it up to more than a fluke.

[Skin Blues]

I just wanna say that I think it's great Luke Maile has a supporter fighting for him, and that it isn't even his mom.

viewtopic.php?p=62571470#p62571470

Does that make you his dad?

Everything I cited has happened after I made that comment in January. I'm always open to changing my mind when presented with new information. Believe me, I was as surprised as you (and most people) after perusing the StatCast data this morning and diving deeper into what he's done over the past month.

[phillipmike]

Everything I cited has happened after I made that comment in January. I'm always open to changing my mind when presented with new information. Believe me, I was as surprised as you (and most people) after perusing the StatCast data this morning and diving deeper into what he's done over the past month.

Which was part of my point at the time. No need to make judgement on a backup catcher who was put in a role over his head last season. All i said was that he would be a positive contributor if he was put in a role more appropriate to his skill set and that is a back up catcher who starts 1.5 times a week.

That being said i still give Maile a shot... He was way over used last year in the first half due to injury to Martin... he is fine as a spot starter; he is has been our best defensive backup catcher since Erik Kratz. He is 27 years old at league minimum with excellent defense and good base running.

Luke Maile:
1st Half: -15 wRC+ in 33 starts
2nd Half: 48 wRC+ in 12 starts

Nothing great but with his plus defense he would be a positive WAR player if he is spot starting and isnt overused. I take someone better than him on a 1 year deal under 5M but their arent any options on the FA market unless Avila takes that but i suspect he wouldnt.

As you said he shouldnt be this good all year but as i said in January if he was used properly he could be a positive producer for the team in a role that is suited for him.

[Skin Blues]

Dude, I'm not here to bicker about some comment you made in January. My point is that his skills have changed, which is the reason to be optimistic. A good defensive catcher with an 48 wRC+ isn't a major leaguer. That same guy hitting the ball significantly harder and whiffing significantly less often is possibly a guy you can count on to start 100 games.

Regarding his 2017 season splits, his GB% when he returned in September last year was only 30% (compared with 56% in the first half of 2017, and 47% for his career). Small sample, but as I said, batted ball profile is reliable in small samples so it looks like a real change. Getting the ball in the air more led to 3 doubles in 33 PA's (95 MPH average Exit Velocity) compared to only 2 doubles in the other 104 PAs in April/May/June/July (87 MPH average Exit Velocity). His K% was an ugly 34% in September, though he seems to have made some adjustments to make more contact thus far in 2018. If he can put the ball in the air at a high rate and strike out 20% of the time, he could be a pretty valuable player.

[phillipmike]

Dude, I'm not here to bicker about some comment you made in January. My point is that his skills have changed, which is the reason to be optimistic. A good defensive catcher with an 48 wRC+ isn't a major leaguer. That same guy hitting the ball significantly harder and whiffing significantly less often is possibly a guy you can count on to start 100 games.

Regarding his 2017 season splits, his GB% when he returned in September last year was only 30% (compared with 56% in the first half of 2017, and 47% for his career). Small sample, but as I said, batted ball profile is reliable in small samples so it looks like a real change. Getting the ball in the air more led to 3 doubles in 33 PA's (95 MPH average Exit Velocity) compared to only 2 doubles in the other 104 PAs in April/May/June/July (87 MPH average Exit Velocity). His K% was an ugly 34% in September, though he seems to have made some adjustments to make more contact thus far in 2018. If he can put the ball in the air at a high rate and strike out 20% of the time, he could be a pretty valuable player.

Im just pointing out the ridiculous comment that you made in January.

Which is what i said in January (not to this degree of course but better enough to be a serviceable backup) you but you chose to go the childish way and say im his mom by having my opinion about him. You were too soon to pass judgement on him based on a season where he was hurt, misused and overused.

Im on the Maile is a serviceable back up train but nothing has changed yet - Its been 9 PAs and spring training i dont think you can say skills have changed but he has has good springs in the past, last year his conventional stats were good and in 2016 his advanced stats stood out in ST. All i am saying is that prior to 2017 he was a fine backup catcher; a good defensive catcher with a 50 wRC+ is a positive contributor and enough to stay on this team even before the "skill change" you seemed to think he has undergone. He was a 0.1 WAR player prior to the Jays and considering what the Jays used as a backup outside of Navarro any positive contributions would have been better than Thole, Salty and Montero.

His 9 PAs are impressive but its just 9 PAs. I wouldnt take his 2018 spring training stats as much as an indicator because he faced some of the worse pitchers - another poster compiled this;

Looking at Baseball Reference's handy "spring training opposition strength" tool:

10 - MLB end of last year
8 - AAA
7 - AA
5 - A+

Travis 7.6
Donaldson 8.2
Smoak 7.7
Pearce 7.8
Granderson 8.1
Grichuk 8.0
Martin 8.0
Tulo ---
Pillar 8.2

Morales 8.1
Solarte 8.1
Diaz 7.0
Maile 6.8

So basically all of the expected roster played against AAA competition on average this spring - except for 2 guys, Diaz and Maile, who faced AA competition on average (and neither did particularly well against that softer competition). Not sure if that tells us anything about how Gibbons was viewing these guys and their spots on the roster, but maybe it does indicate Diaz' spot isnt a lock.

Pompey 7.8
Alford 6.4
Hernandez 6.7
Smith 7.0
Leblebijan 6.2
Tellez 7.1
Jansen 5.7
Espinosa 8.0
Ngoepe 6.5

Davis 5.9
Fields 6.6
Lopes 6.6
McGuire 6.9

Guerrero 6.4
Bichette 6.6
Gurriel 5.8
Urena 6.8
Pentecost 5.6

Maile faced subpar-AA competition in Spring Training. So nothing really has changed he was a serviceable backup in January and is a serviceable backup with a good start now.

[Skin Blues]

Right, it's spring. He faced bad pitching. If he struck out 8% of the time against AA pitching, that would also be notable. K% matters in spring (you can look up Rosenheck's study on this if you want). One swing-and-miss in 38 pitches in the regular season also matters. It was not ridiculous to think he was garbage in January, because all evidence (including everything you cited back then) indicated he was garbage. Despite what you may think ("a good defensive catcher with a 50 wRC+ is a positive contributor") a 50-wRC+ catcher is not worthy of being a backup. Over the past 10 years, 30 different catchers have had a 50 wRC+ or worse in 160+ PA, and precisely zero of them had a WAR above 0.0. Even while hitting the ball harder in September he struck out 34% of the time, didn't walk once, and was contributing offensively at the rate you'd expect from a AA backup catcher. That's changed, which is what's notable here.

[phillipmike]

If you want to use Spring Training where he faced Double A pitching and 9 PAs to judge him then be my guest.

But he was an MLB backup in January and he is still one now. Prior to his bad/misused Jays season in 2017 he was a 50 wRC+ and a 0.1 WAR catcher in 161 PAs. Last year of the catchers with 130+ PAs (what Maile had in 2017) only 49 had a positive WAR. In 2016 it was 48 and in 2015 it was was 47th.

If used properly Maile's career numbers prior to coming to the Jays Maile would have ranked 50th in 2017 in WAR, 49th in 2016 and 48th in 2015. There are 30 teams and 2 roster spots for catchers equating to 60 catchers - Maile would have ranked inside of the 60 in all three seasons making him an MLB backup catcher contrary to what you think - which is something the Jays only had once (a backup catcher produce a positive WAR with at least 130 PAs which is what pre-2017 Maile did) in the last 3 years in Navarro;

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2015&ind=1&team=14&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[The_Hater]

This reminds me of 3 seasons ago when Ryan Goins had a hot 2nd half and a I choose to ignore his full career worth of stats and convince myself that he was a new and improved hitter.

The only downside of Maile’s hot start is Gibby appears to love Luke Maile and this could lead to more playing time for him once he comes back down to earth.

[Skin Blues]

If you want to use Spring Training where he faced Double A pitching and 9 PAs to judge him then be my guest.

I do want to, and I will!

If used properly Maile's career numbers prior to coming to the Jays Maile would have ranked 50th in 2017 in WAR, 49th in 2016 and 48th in 2015.

And the rest of the scraps that played that bad have all been tossed aside. There's no such thing as a 50 wRC+ hitter that keeps his job in the major leagues, even as a backup. They either improve or they're cut. And he's not even a 50 wRC+ hitter, he's a 32 wRC+ hitter whose split-season peak since joining the team is 48 wRC+. The only way to properly use a career 32 wRC+ hitter that doesn't improve is to let him catch bullpen sessions. Luckily he's made changes that could see him be fairly close to a league average hitting catcher.

[Skin Blues]

The only downside of Maile’s hot start is Gibby appears to love Luke Maile and this could lead to more playing time for him once he comes back down to earth.

And the upside is we might have league-average hitting catcher to back up our 35 year old starter. Ya gotta believe!

[And1Skip]

I don’t know. All I remember from last year was that he often strikes out from a called third strike that was a straight fast ball down the middle and then the camera goes directly to his face of disappointment (that he missed a clear strike ). He hasn’t done that this season so far lol


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[phillipmike]

And the rest of the scraps that played that bad have all been tossed aside. There's no such thing as a 50 wRC+ hitter that keeps his job in the major leagues, even as a backup. They either improve or they're cut. And he's not even a 50 wRC+ hitter, he's a 32 wRC+ hitter whose split-season peak since joining the team is 48 wRC+. The only way to properly use a career 32 wRC+ hitter that doesn't improve is to let him catch bullpen sessions. Luckily he's made changes that could see him be fairly close to a league average hitting catcher.

But that was the whole point. All i was saying was that his baseline prior to his misuse with the Jays was an above replacement level catcher which was less than 200 PAs. My point in January was that he was serviceable then if used properly and if used properly he could have improved because he still had age on his side, was a good enough base runner and a really good defensive catcher vs adding a 35+ catcher who had little room for improvement.

My argument in January was that he was good enough to be a backup catcher if used properly and given his age he had room to improve.

Your "argument" in January im his mom for defending him.

Less than 3 months later... your argument; he has and is improving.

If you were objective and listen to what i said in January instead of attacking me you would have seen this earlier.

[Skin Blues]

Yes, your advanced analysis of "he was the 50th ranked catcher 3 years ago so we should keep giving him a chance even though he's gotten worse over the past two seasons" definitely should have been heeded. The same guy for whom you believe 100 plate appearances in the span of 3 months is over-use. And then you use his month of September in which he hit a scorching 48 wRC+ in 33 PA (which is not over-use anymore, I guess??) is reason to keep trotting him out there. Thank you for your contribution. I didn't plan on bickering, but I don't think you know any other way to communicate

[phillipmike]

Yes, your advanced analysis of "he was the 50th ranked catcher 3 years ago so we should keep giving him a chance even though he's gotten worse over the past two seasons" definitely should have been heeded. The same guy for whom you believe 100 plate appearances in the span of 3 months is over-use. And then you use his month of September in which he hit a scorching 48 wRC+ in 33 PA (which is not over-use anymore, I guess??) is reason to keep trotting him out there. Thank you for your contribution. I didn't plan on bickering, but I don't think you know any other way to communicate

Overuse for what he accomplished... he was a back catcher who was asked to start 16 out of 23 games something he was and should have never been asked to do - saw that with Goins and Barney; fine backups but numbers get worse when they were asked to do too much. Closest Maile came to what he did last season for us was in his rookie year in Tampa when he started 13 out of 16 games... Another mis and overuse of his experience and skill. It wasnt the 100 PAs in 3 months rather the 66 PAs over 25 days; so yes 33 PAs over 30 days is much less use than 66 PAs in 25 days. Then he had knee surgery for a torn meniscus after his overuse and hit better when he returned. In January i was willing to give me another season based on using him properly and with health over the other FAs.

All could have been avoided if you had a discussion with me on the matter instead of your childish statement that i could only be his mother by pointing out he could be better than what he was in 2017 for us. Its your communication skills in question here - you had nothing to add to the discussion in January so you want to insult my opinion... and boom you did a 180 a few months later and are on the Maile train.

[Skin Blues]

The difference is when I have nothing to add, I make a one sentence snarky comment. As opposed to derailing a topic with 30 paragraphs of nonsense.

[phillipmike]

Well that snarky comment makes you look great now. And instead of "derailing" a topic you just started a new one. Good on you!

[I_Like_Dirt]

The difference is when I have nothing to add, I make a one sentence snarky comment. As opposed to derailing a topic with 30 paragraphs of nonsense.

To be fair, he really did just make a short snarky comment. You responded with a longer one and things went downhill from there. It's a two-way street, dude.

[Skin Blues]

The difference is when I have nothing to add, I make a one sentence snarky comment. As opposed to derailing a topic with 30 paragraphs of nonsense.

To be fair, he really did just make a short snarky comment. You responded with a longer one and things went downhill from there. It's a two-way street, dude.

I guess I should just ignore certain people if there's nothing constructive coming out of those discussions. I don't mind criticism of what I say. I enjoy being challenged and as I said up top, I am open to having my mind changed (I'm defending Luke Maile of all people, after all). My issue is that the walls of text just have no substance.