Heyman: Blue Jays Sign Curtis Granderson (1 YR, $5M)

[phillipmike]

Bringing up prospects to be backup catchers is not a thing that happens, and for good reason.

Soto might cost $1m, but that's because he has barely played in the majors for two years. Lobaton and Norris are awful, Ruiz will probably cost $2-3m, but that's what it costs if we don't want that position to be a total net negative.

I wouldnt use 2-3M on a 39 year old Ruiz, waste of money. Could get an FA pen arm for 3M like we did with Smith and Howell. Howell was garbage but Smith was definitely proved to have a lot of value. As i will point out below the realistic catching options on the FA market likely arent worth your time unless you get them on a minor league deal.

Martin has averaged less than 120 games in the 3-4 years. If Jansen is ready by say June and Maile isnt good i have no problem having Jansen here learning from him especially if he could get 30+ starts - even more if Martin needed the rest. If he isnt good then you have him on a 1-2 month trial before the deadline and can add a catcher if need be. From 2013 to 2016 Jansen started on average 45-50 games in the minors and then went to 104 games last season. If he starts 40 of the 53 games in April and May with Buffalo and is good then gets another 30 starts with the Jays from June to the end of the season then that isnt anything out of the ordinary... 70-75 starts between the Bisons and Jays is a good plan for him in 2018... if he is ready.

That being said i still give Maile a shot... He was way over used last year in the first half due to injury to Martin... he is fine as a spot starter; he is has been our best defensive backup catcher since Erik Kratz. He is 27 years old at league minimum with excellent defense and good base running.

Luke Maile:
1st Half: -15 wRC+ in 33 starts
2nd Half: 48 wRC+ in 12 starts

Nothing great but with his plus defense he would be a positive WAR player if he is spot starting and isnt overused. I take someone better than him on a 1 year deal under 5M but their arent any options on the FA market unless Avila takes that but i suspect he wouldnt.

No, what happens generally is that teams reserve some of their payroll, so that they can spend it later. Remember a few years ago, when AA spent all of our payroll going into Opening Day, and Rogers wouldn't allow him to make so much as a cheap deadline pickup because it would have put us over budget?

That was 4 years ago. Look at more recent examples;

I also remembering the Jays closing day payroll being higher than that year's opening day payroll 3 years straight from 2015 to 2017;

http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/toronto-blue-jays/

There is no indication that the OD payroll is also the same limit in season like it was in 2014. More recent examples show that the Jays could have more money to work with in season.

We're absolutely going to need minor league deals with major league options for pitchers, though. And any catcher on the market willing to sign a minor league deal is pretty bad; if we want one who isn't well below replacement level, we're going to have to spend a couple mil.

Yeah, pitching. If the Jays sign minor league deals with major league options on pitching then that goes with exactly what i said. They have 11-12M on pitching. That being said i highly doubt they sign many or even any minor league deals with major league options as you will see below.

Who do you recommend we sign at catcher? Because the list i gave you is pretty much all that is left on the market. If you want Ruiz at 2-3M then power to you but i roll with Maile for the time being or look for a trade.

Alex Avila (31)
A.J. Ellis (37)
Jonathan Lucroy (32)
Miguel Montero (34)
Carlos Ruiz (39)
Geovany Soto (35)
Chris Stewart (36)

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html
https://www.fangraphs.com/tools/free-agent-tracker?sign=unsigned&pos=C&nteam=&oteam=

So you are either rolling with what you have in Maile on the roster with Jansen and a minor league signing in Buffalo. Or you make a trade to get a backup catcher and you have Maile in Triple A with Jansen.

Further, most of the depth you note there isn't major league ready. Rowley's not good; he didn't even start the majority of the time in the minors last year, his fastball tops out at 90, and he's 27. Biagini is already our 5th starter. Pannone and Borucki certainly have potential, but aren't likely to be ready in the first half of the year Thus, we're going to need a AAAA starter or two in Buffalo because injuries happen.

In 2015 our 6th and and 7th starters to start the season was Estrada and pretty much no one. When Sanchez was moved back to the pen and Norris was optioned we had Dickey, Buerhle, Hutchison, and Estrada as the top 4. Then enter Price and Stroman and Hutch was gone down. Doubront and Copeland had 4 and 3 starts respectively. Currently we have 4 starters and will sign a 5th. Biagini is your 6th guy... Rowley and Deck can give you 3-4 starts and if you need more out of them then that means you have a significant injury or several mid to long term injuries at that point your season is probably over. Or hopefully one of Pannone or Borucki are good in Triple A and can you some innings.

Relying on minor league signings especially ones that involve major league options isnt a smart strategy as it has not worked out that well in the past;

2015: Andrew Albers, Daric Barton, Ezequiel Carrera, Chris Dickerson, Jonathan Diaz, Andy Dirks, Felix Doubront, Jeff Francis, Caleb Gindl, Bobby Korecky, Wilton Lopez, Munenori Kawasaki, Luis Perez, Johan Santana ($2.5MM if he makes the MLB roster), Randy Wolf
2016: Domonic Brown, David Aardsma, Tony Sanchez, Alexi Casilla, Colt Hynes, Wade LeBlanc, Scott Copeland, Casey Kotchman, Scott Diamond, Pat McCoy, Humberto Quintero, David Adams (Toronto also signed Rafael Soriano and Brad Penny but both pitchers chose to retire)
2017: Jeff Beliveau, Jonathan Diaz, Jake Elmore, Gavin Floyd, Jarrett Grube, Lucas Harrell, T.J. House, Mat Latos, Rafael Lopez, Brett Oberholtzer, Mike Ohlman, Gregorio Petit, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jose Tabata

They are organizational depth with very minimal impact on your team. I am not saying we shouldnt sign minor league deals rather the minor league ones with major league options do not often work out. In fact the minor league deals we have had better success with were just straight up minor league deals like; Carrera, Kawasaki, and Francis and even then nothing to lose sleep over. The minor league deals with major league options didnt really help us rather it took up money for players that werent good or didnt make the team; Santana, Salty, and Latos.

Unlike those years (2015-2017) where we have very little depth in the upper minors so signings like that needed to be made (needed the catching depth and pitching depth last year in Salty and Latos). But Buffalo is overfilling with talent where there likely isnt any room for those type of guys; Triple-A rotation is set (Guerrieri, Harris and Rios are options too in addition to the other 5 i named), at catcher you have Jansen (might need a backup), Tellez at 1B, Diaz/Gift/Urena at SS and 2B, Hernandez, Pompey, Davis and Alford in the OF. Only spots we have left is at 3B, catcher and relief arms. And even then if you are aspiring 3B do you want to come here with Donaldson and Solarte in front of you and Vladdy behind you. There isnt any realistic options on the catching market that i earmark money for.

Unless you have a no brainer that involves a major league player that doesnt have an option but to sign a minor league deal with a major league option with us then i dont think it is a good use of payroll. You have depth like you never had in Triple A and even on your bench... it would be a waste of resources to earmark that money on minor league deals rather consolidate it in your rotation and pen. I use my remaining money on a starter and a bullpen piece on major league deals for the MLB roster and sign straight up minor league deals.

[Schad]

Martin has averaged less than 120 games in the 3-4 years. If Jansen is ready by say June and Maile isnt good i have no problem having Jansen here learning from him especially if he could get 30+ starts - even more if Martin needed the rest. If he isnt good then you have him on a 1-2 month trial before the deadline and can add a catcher if need be. From 2013 to 2016 Jansen started on average 45-50 games in the minors and then went to 104 games last season. If he starts 40 of the 53 games in April and May with Buffalo and is good then gets another 30 starts with the Jays from June to the end of the season then that isnt anything out of the ordinary... 70-75 starts between the Bisons and Jays is a good plan for him in 2018... if he is ready.

70 starts over the course of a year is not something you want for a prospect that you have any hopes for, and even that involves him playing one-third of our games from June on. Jansen's issue, as you note, is that he hasn't gotten a tonne of playing time thanks to injury. The solution to that is not to plant him on the bench for most of the second half.

That being said i still give Maile a shot... He was way over used last year in the first half due to injury to Martin... he is fine as a spot starter; he is has been our best defensive backup catcher since Erik Kratz. He is 27 years old at league minimum with excellent defense and good base running.

Luke Maile:
1st Half: -15 wRC+ in 33 starts
2nd Half: 48 wRC+ in 12 starts

Nothing great but with his plus defense he would be a positive WAR player if he is spot starting and isnt overused. I take someone better than him on a 1 year deal under 5M but their arent any options on the FA market unless Avila takes that but i suspect he wouldnt.

That second half involves just 33 PAs. Sure, Maile could improve, but to date he's a career .183/.207/.289 hitter over about 300 PAs, with a strikeout to walk ratio of 11:1. An ideal backup for the oldest starting catcher in baseball, he is not.

That was 4 years ago. Look at more recent examples;

I also remembering the Jays closing day payroll being higher than that year's opening day payroll 3 years straight from 2015 to 2017;

http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/toronto-blue-jays/

There is no indication that the OD payroll is also the same limit in season like it was in 2014. More recent examples show that the Jays could have more money to work with in season.

There absolutely is evidence. Remember in 2015, when this board went insane because we had mooted a budget figure of over $140m, but AA opened the season having spent only $126m? People blamed ownership for lying, but they weren't; rather, AA reserved some of that money so that he could make deadline deals, having gotten burned the year before.

If you think that Rogers is going to suddenly open their pockets, I admire your optimism.

Yeah, pitching. If the Jays sign minor league deals with major league options on pitching then that goes with exactly what i said. They have 11-12M on pitching. That being said i highly doubt they sign many or even any minor league deals with major league options as you will see below.

Who do you recommend we sign at catcher? Because the list i gave you is pretty much all that is left on the market. If you want Ruiz at 2-3M then power to you but i roll with Maile for the time being or look for a trade.

Alex Avila (31)
A.J. Ellis (37)
Jonathan Lucroy (32)
Miguel Montero (34)
Carlos Ruiz (39)
Geovany Soto (35)
Chris Stewart (36)

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html
https://www.fangraphs.com/tools/free-agent-tracker?sign=unsigned&pos=C&nteam=&oteam=

So you are either rolling with what you have in Maile on the roster with Jansen and a minor league signing in Buffalo. Or you make a trade to get a backup catcher and you have Maile in Triple A with Jansen.

AJ Ellis for $1.5 - $2.0m makes sense to me.

In 2015 our 6th and and 7th starters to start the season was Estrada and pretty much no one. When Sanchez was moved back to the pen and Norris was optioned we had Dickey, Buerhle, Hutchison, and Estrada as the top 4. Then enter Price and Stroman and Hutch was gone down. Doubront and Copeland had 4 and 3 starts respectively. Currently we have 4 starters and will sign a 5th. Biagini is your 6th guy... Rowley and Deck can give you 3-4 starts and if you need more out of them then that means you have a significant injury or several mid to long term injuries at that point your season is probably over. Or hopefully one of Pannone or Borucki are good in Triple A and can you some innings.

You're convinced that we're going to sign another good starter. We likely aren't; we're going to take a flier on someone like Tillman who is available on a cheap, one-year deal owing to injury or poor performance, because that's all we can afford. And that sort of player is going to be competition for Biagini, with the loser getting the long relief role, rather than a guarantee to break camp in the rotation.

2015: Andrew Albers, Daric Barton, Ezequiel Carrera, Chris Dickerson, Jonathan Diaz, Andy Dirks, Felix Doubront, Jeff Francis, Caleb Gindl, Bobby Korecky, Wilton Lopez, Munenori Kawasaki, Luis Perez, Johan Santana ($2.5MM if he makes the MLB roster), Randy Wolf
2015: Domonic Brown, David Aardsma, Tony Sanchez, Alexi Casilla, Colt Hynes, Wade LeBlanc, Scott Copeland, Casey Kotchman, Scott Diamond, Pat McCoy, Humberto Quintero, David Adams (Toronto also signed Rafael Soriano and Brad Penny but both pitchers chose to retire)
2017: Jeff Beliveau, Jonathan Diaz, Jake Elmore, Gavin Floyd, Jarrett Grube, Lucas Harrell, T.J. House, Mat Latos, Rafael Lopez, Brett Oberholtzer, Mike Ohlman, Gregorio Petit, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jose Tabata

They are organizational depth with very minimal impact on your team. I am not saying we shouldnt sign minor league deals rather the minor league ones with major league options do not often work out. In fact the minor league deals we have had better success with were just straight up minor league deals like; Carrera, Kawasaki, and Francis and even then nothing to lose sleep over. The minor league deals with major league options didnt really help us rather it took up money for players that werent good or didnt make the team; Santana, Salty, and Latos.

There is a purpose to those deals: it keeps you from overextending prospects that are not ready, and it keeps you from adding prospects to our already-crowded 40-man before it is necessary.

Right now, the only pitching prospects on the 40-man of any note are Borucki and Pannone; Borucki has a grand total of 52 IP above A-ball in his career, Pannone has two-thirds of a season in AA. Neither is likely to be a good option if thrust into the rotation in the first half of the season, and the likelihood that we'll need at least one fill-in is fairly high. Yes, you could go with Deck or Rowley, but both are really rather bad options; it's possible, even likely, that a player on a minor/major split deal will be bad, too, but teams will always prefer someone with a history of some kind of success over a guy like Rowley if attempting to make the playoffs. Unless we spend more heavily on a relief arm, our cache there is pretty slim in the upper minors...it's a virtual guarantee that we'll add a couple more Al Alburquerques, and likely at least one starter.

[phillipmike]

70 starts over the course of a year is not something you want for a prospect that you have any hopes for, and even that involves him playing one-third of our games from June on. Jansen's issue, as you note, is that he hasn't gotten a tonne of playing time thanks to injury. The solution to that is not to plant him on the bench for most of the second half.

Maybe not for you but that would be my plan. You see no value planting him on the bench... i see a lot of value in him potentially learning from Martin while getting 2 starts a week. There is only 141 games in the Bisons season and the last time they had a catcher start more than 80 games was in 2010 - JP Arencibia. If Jansen stays in Buffalo all season then he likely isnt getting more than 70-80 starts anyways. 40 starts in Buffalo and 30 with the Jays is worth a lot more than 80 starts in Buffalo... again only if he is ready. If he isnt then he stays in Buffalo.

That second half involves just 33 PAs. Sure, Maile could improve, but to date he's a career .183/.207/.289 hitter over about 300 PAs, with a strikeout to walk ratio of 11:1. An ideal backup for the oldest starting catcher in baseball, he is not.

Never said he was ideal... i said several times that i prefer an upgrade but a real upgrade on the FA market involves a lot of money on Lucroy or Avila. I think you get more bang for your buck with Maile than a 30+ catcher.

There absolutely is evidence. Remember in 2015, when this board went insane because we had mooted a budget figure of over $140m, but AA opened the season having spent only $126m? People blamed ownership for lying, but they weren't; rather, AA reserved some of that money so that he could make deadline deals, having gotten burned the year before.

If you think that Rogers is going to suddenly open their pockets, I admire your optimism.

Rogers doesnt need to open their pockets.

Many ways to improve your team mid season. You can save money for trades like AA did in trades in 2015 or you can have teams pick up money in trades like AA also did. The current FO can spend all the money they have now and make trades in season where the other team covers the money.

I rather put my best foot forward from now to July to avoid another bad start rather than saving money to make improvements in July... The improvements now should be the priority to put you in a better position where you are a buyer at the deadline. AA saved the money because he didnt have a lot of options to improve the team's pitching in 2015 so he kept some money for later. Jays have a lot of options now with someone money to spend where they can get some good bargains late in the off-season.

AJ Ellis for $1.5 - $2.0m makes sense to me.

I prefer Maile who is 10 years younger a better defender and base runner and 3rd or 4th of the cost.

You did say "An ideal backup for the oldest starting catcher in baseball, he is not"

I dont know how signing a 37 year old helps that. If you are worried about Martin's age making him susceptible to injury then i dont know how signing a 37 year old backup ensures anything else.

You're convinced that we're going to sign another good starter. We likely aren't; we're going to take a flier on someone like Tillman who is available on a cheap, one-year deal owing to injury or poor performance, because that's all we can afford. And that sort of player is going to be competition for Biagini, with the loser getting the long relief role, rather than a guarantee to break camp in the rotation.

I think they will. Plenty of good options left on the board better than Tillman. Trades are still an option but my #1 target in FA would be Garcia. If you sign a player like Tillman then you are likely opening yourself up to relying heavily on your Triple A rotation because Tillman isnt giving you 100+ innings. Whereas if you sign a healthier and more reliable starter you likely dont have to rely on your 6th and 7th starters like in 2016.

Atkins has said he plans on adding an impact pitcher all off-season. If you think that is Tillman than all the power to you but the Jays have yet to add a pitcher to their team (rotation and bullpen) - in fact they lost one in Leone. To think all we are going to do is add Tillman (-1 WAR player) and fillers is pessimistic.

There is a purpose to those deals: it keeps you from overextending prospects that are not ready, and it keeps you from adding prospects to our already-crowded 40-man before it is necessary.

Who would they be over extending? Biagini, Rowley and McGuire can pitch in the majors and did last year. Biagini might be a starter who can give 100+ innings. Rowley and McGuire can easily give you 3-4 starts if need be. And like i said if they need more than that then their season is likely already over... hence why it makes more sense to target and depend on someone who didnt miss time with a significant injury in Tillman. Garcia or someone else who you can rely on for 140+ innings should be a target. By settling for less you leave yourself open for issues when Tillman or a lesser option gets hurt or is ineffective.

You can sign those guys to minor league deals no problem, nothing is stopping you from that. Just give minor league deals without major league options like they did in 2016 if im not mistaken and you can use your 11-12M to land the depth and reliability you need out of your 5th rotation spot and bullpen... use your resources where you really need it and where you will get the best bang for your buck worry about your 25 man roster first both you start thinking about minor league deals that will always be there.

[Skin Blues]

I just wanna say that I think it's great Luke Maile has a supporter fighting for him, and that it isn't even his mom.

[Schad]

Maybe not for you but that would be my plan. You see no value planting him on the bench... i see a lot of value in him potentially learning from Martin while getting 2 starts a week. There is only 141 games in the Bisons season and the last time they had a catcher start more than 80 games was in 2010 - JP Arencibia. If Jansen stays in Buffalo all season then he likely isnt getting more than 70-80 starts anyways. 40 starts in Buffalo and 30 with the Jays is worth a lot more than 80 starts in Buffalo... again only if he is ready. If he isnt then he stays in Buffalo.

No one in baseball does this "learning from the bench" thing that some on here are so fond of. There's a reason for that.

There's also a simple reason we haven't had a catcher starting 100+ games since: we haven't had any catching prospects of note reach AAA save AJ Jimenez, who was constantly injured. As it stands, Jansen might not start more than 80 games behind the plate...but he sure as hell is going to get more than 80 games worth of plate appearances thanks to the DH. And those plate appearances are far more valuable than anything he will learn blowing bubbles on the bench 5 nights out of 7.

Never said he was ideal... i said several times that i prefer an upgrade but a real upgrade on the FA market involves a lot of money on Lucroy or Avila. I think you get more bang for your buck with Maile than a 30+ catcher.

In general you get negative bang for buck, because Maile has been worse than a replacement-level player.

Rogers doesnt need to open their pockets.

Many ways to improve your team mid season. You can save money for trades like AA did in trades in 2015 or you can have teams pick up money in trades like AA also did. The current FO can spend all the money they have now and make trades in season where the other team covers the money.

I rather put my best foot forward from now to July to avoid another bad start rather than saving money to make improvements in July... The improvements now should be the priority to put you in a better position where you are a buyer at the deadline. AA saved the money because he didnt have a lot of options to improve the team's pitching in 2015 so he kept some money for later. Jays have a lot of options now with someone money to spend where they can get some good bargains late in the off-season.

This doesn't make much sense. Where does this money come from if not from i) our management withholding some of our budget for the year, or ii) Rogers increasing the budget?

I dont know how signing a 37 year old helps that. If you are worried about Martin's age making him susceptible to injury then i dont know how signing a 37 year old backup ensures anything else.

It's not about susceptibility to injury. It's the fact that, physically, Martin simply cannot start as often as he once did.

I think they will. Plenty of good options left on the board better than Tillman. Trades are still an option but my #1 target in FA would be Garcia. If you sign a player like Tillman then you are likely opening yourself up to relying heavily on your Triple A rotation because Tillman isnt giving you 100+ innings. Whereas if you sign a healthier and more reliable starter you likely dont have to rely on your 6th and 7th starters like in 2016.

Atkins has said he plans on adding an impact pitcher all off-season. If you think that is Tillman than all the power to you but the Jays have yet to add a pitcher to their team (rotation and bullpen) - in fact they lost one in Leone. To think all we are going to do is add Tillman (-1 WAR player) and fillers is pessimistic.

There are plenty of pitchers better than Tillman. We likely do not have the money for them. We spent that money boosting our offense.

Who would they be over extending? Biagini, Rowley and McGuire can pitch in the majors and did last year. Biagini might be a starter who can give 100+ innings. Rowley and McGuire can easily give you 3-4 starts if need be. And like i said if they need more than that then their season is likely already over... hence why it makes more sense to target and depend on someone who didnt miss time with a significant injury in Tillman. Garcia or someone else who you can rely on for 140+ innings should be a target. By settling for less you leave yourself open for issues when Tillman or a lesser option gets hurt or is ineffective.

"Can pitch in the majors" doesn't mean "can pitch competently in the majors". Rowley's not a major league pitcher, isn't close to being a major league pitcher, and will not be a major league pitcher.

Deck has a marginally better chance, but he's an extreme flyball pitcher with meagre peripherals even in AAA. He is almost certainly not a major league starter, either.

You can sign those guys to minor league deals no problem, nothing is stopping you from that. Just give minor league deals without major league options like they did in 2016 if im not mistaken and you can use your 11-12M to land the depth and reliability you need out of your 5th rotation spot and bullpen... use your resources where you really need it and where you will get the best bang for your buck worry about your 25 man roster first both you start thinking about minor league deals that will always be there.

You can sign guys to straight minor league deals, sure. Those are the guys who are signed last, and consequently the absolute dregs of the pool, because they have no May 1st out, and they get the league minimum if called up.

[phillipmike]

No one in baseball does this "learning from the bench" thing that some on here are so fond of. There's a reason for that.

There's also a simple reason we haven't had a catcher starting 100+ games since: we haven't had any catching prospects of note reach AAA save AJ Jimenez, who was constantly injured. As it stands, Jansen might not start more than 80 games behind the plate...but he sure as hell is going to get more than 80 games worth of plate appearances thanks to the DH. And those plate appearances are far more valuable than anything he will learn blowing bubbles on the bench 5 nights out of 7.

*cough* Gary Sanchez *cough* - In 2 months in 2016 he started 36 games and had 17 as DH. Im not against him getting DH starts with the Jays either - again if he is deserving. I think working with Martin and a major league pitching staff (guys he could be catching when he becomes a starter) can help his development.

You are really focusing on my plan C here.

Plan A: is get an upgrade or depth. Realistically with who is on the market as a backup i dont take anyone on more than a minor league deal. So i prefer trade.
Plan B: is Maile
Plan C: IF Maile fails and IF Jansen is ready call him up.

In general you get negative bang for buck, because Maile has been worse than a replacement-level player.

If you dont misuse or overuse Maile he should bring you positive contributions and if he doesnt make a trade another catcher.

This doesn't make much sense. Where does this money come from if not from i) our management withholding some of our budget for the year, or ii) Rogers increasing the budget?

The budget always increases with waiver claims, in season trades and call ups. We started with 163M last opening day... you think all the guys we picked up after opening day like Maile, Coghlan, Koehler, Tepesch, Saunders, Montero, and Refsynder played for free? How about call ups like Alford and Smith - are they not getting paid? Its common sense; there is player movement and additions in season and you have to pay those people. Its a little worrisome that i had to explain that to you.

It's not about susceptibility to injury. It's the fact that, physically, Martin simply cannot start as often as he once did.

And employing a 37 year old catcher with a total of 0.1 WAR over the last 2 seasons over Maile doesnt provide much of an upgrade. Like i said saving 2M and rolling with Maile (maybe even adding a minor league deal as depth) is better than spending 2M on what maybe a marginal upgrade. Give me Ellis on a minor league deal... not 2M and taking a major league spot while dipping into your limited funds for addressing bigger positions of need; starter and pen.

I think you are forgetting what my point was about. I said Maile would be my preferred option over spending 1-2M on an old backup. You preferred Ellis and criticize me for liking Maile over what is realistically available to the Jays in free agency because Maile isnt an ideal backup for a catcher like Martin because he is the "oldest catcher in baseball." If you are criticizing Martin for being old (not capable of starting a lot of games) then i dont know how signing a 37 year old catcher who started 36 games last year and 53 the year before is supposed to be a better plan than Maile. If the Jays had either Maile or Ellis as their backup and Martin gets hurt for a long period then they are likely searching for another catcher. In an ideal world Maile isnt starting more than 40 games and neither is Ellis.

There are plenty of pitchers better than Tillman. We likely do not have the money for them.

You do not even know the price yet but already handicapping who the Jays can or cannot get. Plus you are totally disregarding trade where you can get a good play not making a lot.

Are you a Jays fan? You seem down on any decision they make even before they make them.

We spent that money boosting our offense.

Jays went into the off-season with 25M to spend. Spent 5M on Granderson, 4.125M on Solarte, 1.5M on the difference in Grichuk and Leone and if they gave Diaz 2M it brings it to roughly 12.5M. They should have another 12.5M to work with. How did the Jays spend their money on the offense? They have 50% of their off-season budget left.

"Can pitch in the majors" doesn't mean "can pitch competently in the majors". Rowley's not a major league pitcher, isn't close to being a major league pitcher, and will not be a major league pitcher.

Deck has a marginally better chance, but he's an extreme flyball pitcher with meagre peripherals even in AAA. He is almost certainly not a major league starter, either.

Again not asking them to pitch 200 innings, 100 innings, or even 50 innings. They are fine as spot starters and with the exception of Anderson the bar is low when looking at our spot starters from 2017;

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=8223,11137,6570,3815,11121,18820,11716,9013,11596

In a perfect world (what i am proposing) is that you sign a 5th starter and you have Biagini as your 6th guy. And the rest in the Triple A rotation as it stands is just a spot starter until they prove otherwise.

Let me ask you who do you think the Jays will sign to a minor league deal who is better than what is in our current Triple A rotation and is a major league starter? Because that is the measuring stick you are using against Rowley and Deck... You want players on MLDs - who are you proposing? Because keep in mind its a two way street - that player has to want to come here too.

You can sign guys to straight minor league deals, sure. Those are the guys who are signed last, and consequently the absolute dregs of the pool, because they have no May 1st out, and they get the league minimum if called up.

And how have the minor league deals (MLD) with major league options (MLO) worked out for us in the last few years? You arent guaranteed to get a better player on a MLD with a MLO over a player just on a MLD. Minor league deals are minor league deals and there is a reason why that player only can mustard those offers. In more cases than none they are just depth that rarely see the MLB roster and when they do they dont play much and if they do play a lot you wish you had better options. I wouldnt lose sleep over reserving money for MLDs.

Its stupid strategy to reserve some of your limited funds for guys you hope signs with your to act as 3rd or 4th on your depth chart. I would use our remaining 11-12M on a starter and a bullpen arm while signing all the minor league deals in the world after that. You on the other hand would rather saving money for MLD with MLO and a backup catcher leaving the Jays with 7-8M to spend on players like Tillman and save the rest that you may or may not use for in season upgrades.

My priorities are improve your biggest needs; 1. starter, 2. pen, and 3. backup catching (minor league deals or trade).
Your priorities; 1. save money for minor league deals, 2. a backup catcher, 3. get marginal upgrades at pitching (Tillman) and 4. save money for in season upgrades.

[flatjacket1]

I still don't see how the Jays could get away with giving up assets to get a backup catcher who on average will get 8 more hits per year and sit on the bench most nights while providing comparable defense. There is a fine line between starting and backup C. 150 PA .250 average (starter with Maile's defense) gets you 37.5 hits. 30 if you hit .200 and 45 if you hit .300.

Like when we got Miguel Montero (bat first backup C) everybody jumped for joy, he went on to hit .216/.310/.346. A true talent .250 hitter will have those numbers for 25 of 100 full seasons as a backup anyways. By the time a backup C plays enough to justify an adequate sample size he is 40 and in retirement. It's like the whole "relievers are volatile" thing. Sure they are, because a down year for a starter like Stroman is 200IP, and it takes 4 years for most relievers to get the same innings. If a starting arm can under perform or over perform for a season by a decent amount, multiply that variance by 4 for a reliever. A true talent 3 ERA reliever will likely have a couple 5+ ERA seasons per 100 samples with the same talent level.

To me, you always want defense or platoon guys on the bench, and at most one starting level bat that sucks in the field to PH. Guys like Goins and Mathis are valuable (as a bench player) because they don't lose you games when you are out there, and over the course of a single season no backup will have any sort of realistic numbers. Like in terms of probability saying Donaldson will outhit Goins on any given night where they both start is still likely 70:30. And that's an MVP vs a bench player with a bad bat. Paying any sort of money to upgrade at backup C makes 0 sense to me. Upgrading 1 fWAR will likely cost 4x the market because a 4 fWAR player playing backup C would post around 1 fWAR assuming they received a quarter of the PA. You don't want talent on the bench. We need a pitcher.

[Schad]

We don't have the money for a good starter.

Additionally, batting average isn't a great metric, and our backup(s) will get more than 150 PAs. The difference between AJ Ellis (who had a bad year) and Luke Maile last year over 200 PAs would be about 25 times on base and 21 total bases of offense. Or about $5m worth of whatever the version of "surplus value" is when you're talking about a guy who is a massive net negative versus one who is merely not a massive net negative. Nothing to write home about, but for perhaps $1 - $1.5m that's damned good value.

[bluerap23]

Can just keep Maile to back up and bring up Janssen to be starter when Martin gets injured.

[Schad]

Can just keep Maile to back up and bring up Janssen to be starter when Martin gets injured.

200 PAs for our backups is if Martin doesn't get injured, though. AJ Pierzynski is the only catcher Martin's age or older since 2010 to even approach 500 PAs.

[flatjacket1]

We don't have the money for a good starter.

Additionally, batting average isn't a great metric, and our backup(s) will get more than 150 PAs. The difference between AJ Ellis (who had a bad year) and Luke Maile last year over 200 PAs would be about 25 times on base and 21 total bases of offense. Or about $5m worth of whatever the version of "surplus value" is when you're talking about a guy who is a massive net negative versus one who is merely not a massive net negative. Nothing to write home about, but for perhaps $1 - $1.5m that's damned good value.

Over 200 PA, Ellis would reach base 59.6 times using last years stats, 35.2, so yeah 25 times if you are saying Mailes true talent is around .207 on base, which is quite an assumption. You also said Ellis had a "down year" despite the last two years being comparable, and if you are about to say that is too small a sample size, that is exactly the same as Mailes career sample size so it would be true with both. You can't selectively choose which small sample size had a down year and which one was true talent.

Ellis is also amost 37, so due for regression from his "down" years. Maile is almost 27. Add in defense for 200 PA, and Maile would be worth 7.205 DEF, and 3.43 DEF for Ellis.

I would say the likelyhood of Maile outperforming last years numbers and Ellis underperforming his last year numbers (from a statistical sense) is pretty substantial. Defensively even more so.

[Schad]

That's fair; despite the decline, I'd have more faith in Ellis being able to grind out marginally decent numbers thanks to his ability to work a walk. Maile's profile as a hitter is just so awful; "good defensively, bad offensively" is a perfectly fine profile as a backup catcher, sure, but he wasn't just a bad hitter last year. His 139 PAs represented the most appearances at the plate for a player with a wRC+ of 0 or below in four years*, and his peripherals are absolutely atrocious.


*Random stat o' the day: none of the players in the past decade who posted 100+ plate appearances without a positive wRC+ played again in the majors. The last one to maintain their major league career? Ben Zobrist, who his .155/.184/.206 in 105 PAs. Two years later he was getting MVP votes.

[flatjacket1]

That's fair; despite the decline, I'd have more faith in Ellis being able to grind out marginally decent numbers thanks to his ability to work a walk. Maile's profile as a hitter is just so awful; "good defensively, bad offensively" is a perfectly fine profile as a backup catcher, sure, but he wasn't just a bad hitter last year. His 139 PAs represented the most appearances at the plate for a player with a wRC+ of 0 or below in four years*, and his peripherals are absolutely atrocious.


*Random stat o' the day: none of the players in the past decade who posted 100+ plate appearances without a positive wRC+ played again in the majors. The last one to maintain their major league career? Ben Zobrist, who his .155/.184/.206 in 105 PAs. Two years later he was getting MVP votes.

I agree with most of that, just still feel you are reading too deeply into a small sample. Even the peripheral stats you reference take time to stabilize. I remember we signed Smoak after a similar sample size to an extension with a similar line. He hit .187 in the 136 PA leading up to his extension, with some power yeah but he was a 1B so adjust based on that and I'd argue it's worse.

The point is a good defensive player is way more likely to have an above average season with the bat than a player who is good with the bat to have a good season with the glove. Montero is unlikely to go into a season and magically throw heat and throw like Weiters. Defense has a lot more stability, although the outputs in stats can still take time to normalize, if he has a great arm and solid footwork with a quick pop, you know over the long run he will fare better than a consisently crap defensive catcher (such as Montero). Maile to me is the best defensive catcher we have had since Mathis, and paying him the minimum and hoping he does well makes more sense to me than pay external guys and hoping they don't regress.

[bluerap23]

That's fair; despite the decline, I'd have more faith in Ellis being able to grind out marginally decent numbers thanks to his ability to work a walk. Maile's profile as a hitter is just so awful; "good defensively, bad offensively" is a perfectly fine profile as a backup catcher, sure, but he wasn't just a bad hitter last year. His 139 PAs represented the most appearances at the plate for a player with a wRC+ of 0 or below in four years*, and his peripherals are absolutely atrocious.


*Random stat o' the day: none of the players in the past decade who posted 100+ plate appearances without a positive wRC+ played again in the majors. The last one to maintain their major league career? Ben Zobrist, who his .155/.184/.206 in 105 PAs. Two years later he was getting MVP votes.

So you’re saying Maile still has a chance

[phillipmike]

Guys we are in the hunt again, we can justify trying for a wildcard spot. The almighty Fangraphs projected standings had the Angels getting the last wildcard spot with 88 wins and the Jays with only 84. Now the Angels are projected to get 86 wins and the Jays projected to get 85 wins!!!!

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

[Skin Blues]

Guys we are in the hunt again, we can justify trying for a wildcard spot. The almighty Fangraphs projected standings had the Angels getting the last wildcard spot with 88 wins and the Jays with only 84. Now the Angels are projected to get 86 wins and the Jays projected to get 85 wins!!!!

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Who would have thought Jake Petricka would move the needle that far?!

[Schad]

Who would have thought Jake Petricka would move the needle that far?!

Heh, best I can tell, it's Jansen: with their revised prospect grades, they handed him almost all of Maile's plate appearances.

[phillipmike]

Jansen was always projected for 0.6 WAR.

The difference was the projection system increased the Jays projected pitching WAR and decreased the Angels;

Before it was;

BEFORE 2018 Projections:
Angels: 14.7 WAR
Blue Jays: 13.4 WAR
1.3 WAR Shortfall for the Jays

NOW 2018 Projections:
Angels: 13.2 WAR
Blue Jays: 13.7 WAR
0.5 WAR Surplus for the Jays

Almost a 2 WAR swing. Plus they got a boost somewhere in the offense; if my memory serves me right Grichuk, Granderson, Diaz, Smoak and Pearce got bumps but Solarte took and hit and it looks like the aforementioned OFs took more at bats from Carrera hence their bumps and Diaz got his at bats. Jays are now predicted to have a top 5 run producing offense which i think is far fetched but i still think their projections are overvaluing the Angels pitching so it evens out.

[phillipmike]

Guys we blew it. Back to an 83 win team and Angels up to 87. Damn Axford really disrupted our team chemistry.

[Schad]

It's probably the same issue they were having during the season, then. Something was getting mistabulated from time to time, causing our winning percentage to skyrocket briefly before resetting.

Cannot stress enough though that the problem is not whether we're 1 or 3 games back of the Angels, but rather that we're well back of the Red Sox and Yankees. Chasing the second Wild Card is foolhardy whether we're marginal or more substantial underdogs. The path to playing in an actual playoff round is just so narrow.