warriors plus minus - updated Jan 7

[Twinkie defense]

Also, I freakin love GP2

I love GPII, too. I think the same reason many people find it hard to appreciate Podz's game is why they find it hard to appreciate GPII's game - too much emphasis on shooting and scoring.

Players like Podz, GPII, Slo Mo are subject to market inefficiencies - teams don't value them because they aren't prolific shooters/scorers, even though they contribute greatly to winning. That is the brilliance of MDJ's approach to roster building - he's finding overlooked guys that contribute to winning, instead of a bunch of "sexy" players who can shoot, score, dunk, but lack so many of the tangible and intangible skills that make a good basketball player.

[Twinkie defense]

Also, I don't understand the man crush on Moses Moody.

[CDM_Stats]

Also, I don't understand the man crush on Moses Moody.

He's been underused, but its the same reason people are bagging on Podz - one has excellent peripherals (usually called intangibles, but they are very, very tangible) but the raw +/- doesnt look very good. And the other has really poor peripherals and the raw +/- looks amazing

If you strip away the teammates and look what each individual brings to the court, one has been much better than the other.

But really why people like Moody so much is that once in a while, fan sentiment really lines up with analytics. Moody is a F-heavy 3&D wing, but the team hasn't set him up like one. Playing a lot of SG, guarding guys like Kyrie and Derrick White.. he should be used in the exact same style as Wiggins, but because of our early season penchant for playing Kuminga at the 3 and TJD more than we should, the +/- results are underwhelming. But the peripherals remain extremely high.. and it screams WASTED VALUE

[CDM_Stats]

Also, I freakin love GP2

I love GPII, too. I think the same reason many people find it hard to appreciate Podz's game is why they find it hard to appreciate GPII's game - too much emphasis on shooting and scoring.

No, its the domino effect. Guards who cant shoot have to really impact the game elsewhere. GP2 can defensively, although he's missing more rotations per game than he has since he started here. Negative regression is coming for him. Podz OTOH has rebounding and thats pretty much it. Where else is he affecting the game meaningfully? Down almost across the board from his rookie season

But, like Moody, he's clearly being put in a position he's not going to thrive in due to the makeup of the roster. Podz is a SG that can play some PG. His TS is 44, his rebounding (while still great) is down, his charges are down, his assist % is down, his TO% is up.. he is individually the worst offensive player on the team right now by a crazy wide margin. He's also the worst defending guard on the team

His raw stats are a house of cards being propped up by the crazy scoring flurries of Hield early in the season and the general ineffectiveness of the starting 5 nearly every game. There should be a ton of concern about him right now because +/- or not, he is a heavy negative player right now

[cpower]

he is running a bench that absolutely crushing other team's bench.. not many teams have SloMo JK Hield kind of talent from 2nd unit....I do suspect his number wont look as good in a much top heavy team

But SloMo JK Hield all have a worse plus/minus than Podz

Hield had a great start but have come down to the earth. He is now having a negative on off
Slomo is not too bad considering Kerr dont have a fix lineup for him.
yup Podz just makes us better somehow lol

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/GSW/2025/on-off/

[floppymoose]

I'm not sure exactly how basketball-reference screwed it up, but those Hield numbers are wrong. There is no other site that agrees with bb-ref there.

[CDM_Stats]

I'm not sure exactly how basketball-reference screwed it up, but those Hield numbers are wrong. There is no other site that agrees with bb-ref there.

they are quickly becoming unreliable. Their ORtg/DRtg numbers are supposedly unique but they frequently are way off every other one I've seen too. Maybe there's some serious statistical lag? I dont know.. but they are right up there with Statmuse as extremely unreliable data sources

[Crazy-Canuck]

I'm not sure exactly how basketball-reference screwed it up, but those Hield numbers are wrong. There is no other site that agrees with bb-ref there.

they are quickly becoming unreliable. Their ORtg/DRtg numbers are supposedly unique but they frequently are way off every other one I've seen too. Maybe there's some serious statistical lag? I dont know.. but they are right up there with Statmuse as extremely unreliable data sources

I think bbref uses per 100 to calculate their rtg while nba.comuses actual minutes.

[CDM_Stats]

I'm not sure exactly how basketball-reference screwed it up, but those Hield numbers are wrong. There is no other site that agrees with bb-ref there.

they are quickly becoming unreliable. Their ORtg/DRtg numbers are supposedly unique but they frequently are way off every other one I've seen too. Maybe there's some serious statistical lag? I dont know.. but they are right up there with Statmuse as extremely unreliable data sources

I think bbref uses per 100 to calculate their rtg while nba.comuses actual minutes.

maybe thats it... even their lineup ratings are way off though. Maybe their glossary explains it but if you're going to buck traditional methods so hard, it should be much easier to explain than it is

[cladden]

I think Podz is playing shook this year. I think that nose injury (and who knows what will happen now) with the mask and all that has impacted his rhythm for everything this season. I hope so anyway.

[Twinkie defense]

Also, I don't understand the man crush on Moses Moody.

He's been underused, but its the same reason people are bagging on Podz - one has excellent peripherals (usually called intangibles, but they are very, very tangible) but the raw +/- doesnt look very good. And the other has really poor peripherals and the raw +/- looks amazing

If you strip away the teammates and look what each individual brings to the court, one has been much better than the other.

But really why people like Moody so much is that once in a while, fan sentiment really lines up with analytics. Moody is a F-heavy 3&D wing, but the team hasn't set him up like one. Playing a lot of SG, guarding guys like Kyrie and Derrick White.. he should be used in the exact same style as Wiggins, but because of our early season penchant for playing Kuminga at the 3 and TJD more than we should, the +/- results are underwhelming. But the peripherals remain extremely high.. and it screams WASTED VALUE

Steve Kerr has better analytics than you, no?

And analytics don't account for scheme - analytics don't know if Moody was supposed to force the offensive player left and he let him go right. For example.

Steph and Draymond love playing with GPII and advocate for him. They give Moses praise for how hard he works but I don't see them arguing that he needs to have a bigger role on the team, in fact Curry's praise recently sounded more like a backhanded compliment. They know something, don't you think?

When I look at Moody I see a hesitant player who's best ability it his three point shooting, but he's slow to get it off. And I go back to what I said before, shooting is just one aspect of the game, and an overrated one at that - there are multiple guys on the roster who can't shoot but who are way more impactful than Moody.

Moses Moody has a very team-friendly contract - even more team-friendly than originally suspected, because of the hard to reach incentives needed to get him the full value of his 3 year, $37.5 mil deal.

If Moses is a very good player who is just being limited by his role or minutes, neither he nor his agent would want him locked into that deal, don't you think?

I tend to think that guys who play well tend to get more minutes. Lindy Waters III is an example of that.

It seems to me that there is a reason that Moody keeps getting beat out by other players and it's not because Moody is a great player and Kerr just can't see it.

[CDM_Stats]

And analytics don't account for scheme - analytics don't know if Moody was supposed to force the offensive player left and he let him go right. For example.

Steph and Draymond love playing with GPII and advocate for him. They give Moses praise for how hard he works but I don't see them arguing that he needs to have a bigger role on the team, in fact Curry's praise recently sounded more like a backhanded compliment. They know something, don't you think?

When I look at Moody I see a hesitant player who's best ability it his three point shooting, but he's slow to get it off. And I go back to what I said before, shooting is just one aspect of the game, and an overrated one at that - there are multiple guys on the roster who can't shoot but who are way more impactful than Moody.

Moses Moody has a very team-friendly contract - even more team-friendly than originally suspected, because of the hard to reach incentives needed to get him the full value of his 3 year, $37.5 mil deal.

If Moses is a very good player who is just being limited by his role or minutes, neither he nor his agent would want him locked into that deal, don't you think?

I tend to think that guys who play well tend to get more minutes. Lindy Waters III is an example of that.

It seems to me that there is a reason that Moody keeps getting beat out by other players and it's not because Moody is a great player and Kerr just can't see it.

Let me start by correcting several things that are entirely incorrect here.

1 - the gold standard for the base statistics for analytics is SS, I have had access for years now, and have called out several things well before the team either knew them or implemented them. So the implication that his are better... why? What proof is there of that?

2 - analytics is the study and application of logic to metrics and data. They include general scheme, not specific strategy. Specific strategy are easily clocked variables

3 - I said Moody is a better player at the 3 than 2, where he's been most used. See I dont need help saying what I'm saying.. I said it. I thought I did a fine job relaying my own thoughts, which is that he's not being used most at his best position. Do you disagree? Do you think Moody is better as a 2? JK is better as a 3? Dray is better as a 4? Because that's what I said, wasnt it?

Coaches frequently misuse players, or use them as less than they can be, due to situation. Melton is now out for the season, so there's more minutes at the 2 available. Since Kerr has still somewhat committed to JK at the 3 (though less than before) and giving a mostly ineffective TJD a long leash at the 5, this has downstream effects. One of them is Moody not being used in a way that's best for him. Combine that with several years of good performance not being rewarded the same as others, and you have a guy that fans want to see succeed because he's constantly the one having to eat **** at the expense of guys like Lamb, Jerome, CP3, and even Klay who deserved less time.

Of course if the implication is an appeal to authority, which it kinda seems like it is, then just say that and use less space

[vvoland]

And analytics don't account for scheme - analytics don't know if Moody was supposed to force the offensive player left and he let him go right. For example.

Steph and Draymond love playing with GPII and advocate for him. They give Moses praise for how hard he works but I don't see them arguing that he needs to have a bigger role on the team, in fact Curry's praise recently sounded more like a backhanded compliment. They know something, don't you think?

When I look at Moody I see a hesitant player who's best ability it his three point shooting, but he's slow to get it off. And I go back to what I said before, shooting is just one aspect of the game, and an overrated one at that - there are multiple guys on the roster who can't shoot but who are way more impactful than Moody.

Moses Moody has a very team-friendly contract - even more team-friendly than originally suspected, because of the hard to reach incentives needed to get him the full value of his 3 year, $37.5 mil deal.

If Moses is a very good player who is just being limited by his role or minutes, neither he nor his agent would want him locked into that deal, don't you think?

I tend to think that guys who play well tend to get more minutes. Lindy Waters III is an example of that.

It seems to me that there is a reason that Moody keeps getting beat out by other players and it's not because Moody is a great player and Kerr just can't see it.

Let me start by correcting several things that are entirely incorrect here.

1 - the gold standard for the base statistics for analytics is SS, I have had access for years now, and have called out several things well before the team either knew them or implemented them. So the implication that his are better... why? What proof is there of that?

2 - analytics is the study and application of logic to metrics and data. They include general scheme, not specific strategy. Specific strategy are easily clocked variables

3 - I said Moody is a better player at the 3 than 2, where he's been most used. See I dont need help saying what I'm saying.. I said it. I thought I did a fine job relaying my own thoughts, which is that he's not being used most at his best position. Do you disagree? Do you think Moody is better as a 2? JK is better as a 3? Dray is better as a 4? Because that's what I said, wasnt it?

Coaches frequently misuse players, or use them as less than they can be, due to situation. Melton is now out for the season, so there's more minutes at the 2 available. Since Kerr has still somewhat committed to JK at the 3 (though less than before) and giving a mostly ineffective TJD a long leash at the 5, this has downstream effects. One of them is Moody not being used in a way that's best for him. Combine that with several years of good performance not being rewarded the same as others, and you have a guy that fans want to see succeed because he's constantly the one having to eat **** at the expense of guys like Lamb, Jerome, CP3, and even Klay who deserved less time.

Of course if the implication is an appeal to authority, which it kinda seems like it is, then just say that and use less space

1. because he has an analytics team and not a dude posting on message boards for hours on end? because you're not as smart as you think you are? because kerr has led this team to 4 titles while managing volatile personalities and changing the way the game is played on both ends of the court? Because you called out 'several things' doesn't mean the team didn't know about it. the arrogance is kind of mind-boggling coming from a guy that spends more time on realgm than most people spend at their real job.

2. sure. application of logic is where you may find the answer to question 1

3. you need helping formulating data sets into sentences that don't scream "I'm right! You're Wrong! Just shut up!"

Coaches frequently use players differently than what the SS data would suggest because coaches manage people, not characters in NBA 2K. Considering the tone you've taken on this board (a place designed to foster discussion), I highly doubt you have the empathy and communication skills necessary to evaluate things outside of the data (which you seem to understand very well, to be fair).

[danbanger]

Also, I freakin love GP2

I love GPII, too. I think the same reason many people find it hard to appreciate Podz's game is why they find it hard to appreciate GPII's game - too much emphasis on shooting and scoring.

Players like Podz, GPII, Slo Mo are subject to market inefficiencies - teams don't value them because they aren't prolific shooters/scorers, even though they contribute greatly to winning. That is the brilliance of MDJ's approach to roster building - he's finding overlooked guys that contribute to winning, instead of a bunch of "sexy" players who can shoot, score, dunk, but lack so many of the tangible and intangible skills that make a good basketball player.

It is brilliant because the league has forced teams to load manage players. This in turn os requiring teams to be deeper to compensate. Top heavy teams can be good but if one or two players go down its all over. Good teams will find players that they can plug in and play and have developement plans (G league team). Lets go money ball.

[CDM_Stats]

1. because he has an analytics team and not a dude posting on message boards for hours on end? because you're not as smart as you think you are? because kerr has led this team to 4 titles while managing volatile personalities and changing the way the game is played on both ends of the court? Because you called out 'several things' doesn't mean the team didn't know about it. the arrogance is kind of mind-boggling coming from a guy that spends more time on realgm than most people spend at their real job.

Sorry that I get paid while doing this, I guess? And I'm not saying the analytics team doesnt know - I wonder who they are, btw! - but if Kerr doesnt apply them, they don't get credit for it. But it does sound like you're agreeing that these metrics and analytics, which aren't even entirely mine, are pretty accurate and ahead of the Warriors actions, so thanks.. credit's not given a ton around here. But if Kerr doesnt do the things that make the most sense towards winning, he should be critiqued. Literally the job, one he's paid well to do. He doesnt need a white knight, he'll be fine

3. you need helping formulating data sets into sentences that don't scream "I'm right! You're Wrong! Just shut up!"

Nah just don't misrepresent what I say. Twinkie has been on this board forever and I've argued with him just as long, he doesnt do it typically so probably just a bad paraphrase. When people continually do it though.. well, you know. I dont respond to them, theres no value in it. He interpreted me saying people like Moody because he's being used in a way that doesnt help him as he's a great player. That's never been the argument, just that he fits a certain role really well and is it not fair to wonder why he doesn't get to play in it as much over someone like JK, who's really bad at it?

Coaches frequently use players differently than what the SS data would suggest because coaches manage people, not characters in NBA 2K. Considering the tone you've taken on this board (a place designed to foster discussion), I highly doubt you have the empathy and communication skills necessary to evaluate things outside of the data (which you seem to understand very well, to be fair).

Correct, they do. And if you are willing to assume that every time they dont listen to the data its because of some people-managing thing - and way more importantly, is the correct thing to do - then that is an appeal to authority. Its right because they say its right... right? I can only base criticism off what he's doing, and if its hand-waved away based on things like managing personalities, well... considering in the past 3 years a player has been popped in the face, the 2nd best player was suspended for nearly a month, and one of the Warriors biggest 4 stars the past 15 years seems to not be on speaking terms with the franchise.. is it going well? Because I dont think getting bounced from the playoffs 2 years ago and then from the play-in last year are signs that it is going well. And for some of us, history is fine but the present is what matters. Kerr's 4 rings don't mean dick when it comes to a 2025 title.

Also, hurtful! I dont think I'd be able to have the access I do if I didnt work well with colleagues. Helped several people with their understanding of metrics and models in PMs, zoom calls, and the like. But I'm very protective of how these things work and the misconceptions about them, because people react poorly to things they dont understand, and if people muddy the waters by saying things like that analytics cant measure scheme. Metrics cant, sure. And they are a component of analytics, not the entirety

[Onus]

I think Podz is playing shook this year. I think that nose injury (and who knows what will happen now) with the mask and all that has impacted his rhythm for everything this season. I hope so anyway.

He broke his nose, and he got that vertigo type illness. His role is also very different than it was last year. The shots he's taking are completely different.

[cladden]

I think Podz is playing shook this year. I think that nose injury (and who knows what will happen now) with the mask and all that has impacted his rhythm for everything this season. I hope so anyway.

He broke his nose, and he got that vertigo type illness. His role is also very different than it was last year. The shots he's taking are completely different.

His complete inability to get good shots for himself is rather concerning and I think that was the case in his rookie year too. He just doesn't finish inside with any sort of strength and his outside shot is too slow and circumspect and frankly doesn't go in enough. Even if his intangibles rebounding and defense are all pluses he needs to score the ball at a higher clip than he has to be a solid starter or more in this league. I'm not at all giving up on the guy but I think he maybe needs to bulk up or something. He just appears scared to shoot the ball.

[vvoland]

1. because he has an analytics team and not a dude posting on message boards for hours on end? because you're not as smart as you think you are? because kerr has led this team to 4 titles while managing volatile personalities and changing the way the game is played on both ends of the court? Because you called out 'several things' doesn't mean the team didn't know about it. the arrogance is kind of mind-boggling coming from a guy that spends more time on realgm than most people spend at their real job.

Sorry that I get paid while doing this, I guess? And I'm not saying the analytics team doesnt know - I wonder who they are, btw! - but if Kerr doesnt apply them, they don't get credit for it. But it does sound like you're agreeing that these metrics and analytics, which aren't even entirely mine, are pretty accurate and ahead of the Warriors actions, so thanks.. credit's not given a ton around here. But if Kerr doesnt do the things that make the most sense towards winning, he should be critiqued. Literally the job, one he's paid well to do. He doesnt need a white knight, he'll be fine

3. you need helping formulating data sets into sentences that don't scream "I'm right! You're Wrong! Just shut up!"

Nah just don't misrepresent what I say. Twinkie has been on this board forever and I've argued with him just as long, he doesnt do it typically so probably just a bad paraphrase. When people continually do it though.. well, you know. I dont respond to them, theres no value in it. He interpreted me saying people like Moody because he's being used in a way that doesnt help him as he's a great player. That's never been the argument, just that he fits a certain role really well and is it not fair to wonder why he doesn't get to play in it as much over someone like JK, who's really bad at it?

Coaches frequently use players differently than what the SS data would suggest because coaches manage people, not characters in NBA 2K. Considering the tone you've taken on this board (a place designed to foster discussion), I highly doubt you have the empathy and communication skills necessary to evaluate things outside of the data (which you seem to understand very well, to be fair).

Correct, they do. And if you are willing to assume that every time they dont listen to the data its because of some people-managing thing - and way more importantly, is the correct thing to do - then that is an appeal to authority. Its right because they say its right... right? I can only base criticism off what he's doing, and if its hand-waved away based on things like managing personalities, well... considering in the past 3 years a player has been popped in the face, the 2nd best player was suspended for nearly a month, and one of the Warriors biggest 4 stars the past 15 years seems to not be on speaking terms with the franchise.. is it going well? Because I dont think getting bounced from the playoffs 2 years ago and then from the play-in last year are signs that it is going well. And for some of us, history is fine but the present is what matters. Kerr's 4 rings don't mean dick when it comes to a 2025 title.

Also, hurtful! I dont think I'd be able to have the access I do if I didnt work well with colleagues. Helped several people with their understanding of metrics and models in PMs, zoom calls, and the like. But I'm very protective of how these things work and the misconceptions about them, because people react poorly to things they dont understand, and if people muddy the waters by saying things like that analytics cant measure scheme. Metrics cant, sure. And they are a component of analytics, not the entirety

You get paid to post on message boards or you post on message boards while being paid to do other things?

it's easy to misinterpret what people say on a post. You did it just now: I do think the metrics are pretty accurate and hold value. I did not say they were 'ahead of the warriors' actions.' that's you mis-representing what I said; feel free to re-read it, I'll highlight the part that you got wrong: "Because you called out 'several things' doesn't mean the team didn't know about it."

another part you misinterpreted, or more likely, twisted to fit your strawman - I am NOT willing to assume that "every time they don't listen to the data is because of some people-managing thing" and I do NOT assume it "is the correct thing to do." I'm simply saying there is a ton to contemplate beyond what SS says. Do I agree that dray is better at 5 than 4? Yes. Do I take that to mean he should play only (or mostly) C? NO. If dray believes it's harder for him to play the 5, I have to take that into account, if I'm coaching dray for 82+ games. Just like placebos, what people believe matters almost as much as what the drugs do.

I never said Kerr is doing an amazing job and is beyond criticism. i'm saying to a hammer, everything looks like a nail and, in this analogy, you're the hammer and everything is obvious on SS. Kerr didn't handle the poole punch well, at least not what I would have expected. He hasn't dealt with Draymond in a way that's helped Dray become a better, more reliable player. The Klay stuff is weird and despite being one of the biggest Klay defenders on this board, his attitude and general demeanor has been pretty atrocious. I'm having a hard time laying the blame for any of those 3 things at Kerr's feet outside of the Poole punch. Even then, I am not in the locker room and have a hard to picking sides other than saying assault is rarely the solution.

I have no idea how well you work with colleagues. Considering you still have SS access and some sources in the org, I'm guessing you do fine with folks you consider peers. It's clear you don't feel that way about the folks on this board from the way you talk down to those who disagree, even slightly.

[vvoland]

I think Podz is playing shook this year. I think that nose injury (and who knows what will happen now) with the mask and all that has impacted his rhythm for everything this season. I hope so anyway.

He broke his nose, and he got that vertigo type illness. His role is also very different than it was last year. The shots he's taking are completely different.

His complete inability to get good shots for himself is rather concerning and I think that was the case in his rookie year too. He just doesn't finish inside with any sort of strength and his outside shot is too slow and circumspect and frankly doesn't go in enough. Even if his intangibles rebounding and defense are all pluses he needs to score the ball at a higher clip than he has to be a solid starter or more in this league. I'm not at all giving up on the guy but I think he maybe needs to bulk up or something. He just appears scared to shoot the ball.

He doesn't have a layup package or a jumpshot. He has a step back and a floater (which the team is telling him to not use, if the +/- guys are to be believed). He's getting worse as a spot-up shooter and has no off the dribble pull-up. Just a super limited offensive player, in terms of scoring, at least.

[Onus]

I think Podz is playing shook this year. I think that nose injury (and who knows what will happen now) with the mask and all that has impacted his rhythm for everything this season. I hope so anyway.

He broke his nose, and he got that vertigo type illness. His role is also very different than it was last year. The shots he's taking are completely different.

His complete inability to get good shots for himself is rather concerning and I think that was the case in his rookie year too. He just doesn't finish inside with any sort of strength and his outside shot is too slow and circumspect and frankly doesn't go in enough. Even if his intangibles rebounding and defense are all pluses he needs to score the ball at a higher clip than he has to be a solid starter or more in this league. I'm not at all giving up on the guy but I think he maybe needs to bulk up or something. He just appears scared to shoot the ball.

He's definitely scared to shoot the ball currently. Apparently it's a big thing that he's in his head currently.

But tbh I doubt he's ever going to be a 18 ppg scorer. He has to be willing to shoot 3s and if he's unwilling then he'll never get there. It's weird he took 6 3s a game in college off of mostly self created 3s, and that's what he needs to get back to. But those are tough shots.

I would've traded all the young guys for Lauri.