inquisitive wrote:they will be going after KD in 2 seasons...just hope harden doesn't have a fallout with KD between now and then...if not, you can book KD coming here.
Maybe, maybe not. Not a good idea to project that far on a slim hope, a lot can happen in 2 yrs. As a matter of fact, a lot can happen in a few hours, as everyone saw with Bosh getting the Miami hard sell.
Remember Aldridge and Love? Two players who were supposedly disgruntled with their teams failing to make the playoffs, and being prime PF upgrade targets for the Rockets? At one point in the past, they were speculated to be Morey's big targets this season. Everyone expected Morey to either trade for them (with the assumption of a predatory trade because both could likely leave their teams) or sign them as free agents with cap space after the Lin/Asik contracts expired at the end of this season.
Guess what, now they're both off the table, and it didn't even take 2 yrs. The Blazers added Robin Lopez to free up Aldridge to play PF instead of C and the Blazers not only made the playoffs but beat the Rockets. Kevin Love is now paired with Lebron and will probably re-sign with the Cavs.
So, a year ago, everyone was sure that Morey had a good chance of getting one of the two. Now, they're both off the table.
So I wouldn't count any chickens before they hatch with Durant.
A LOT can change in 2 yrs, and it doesn't even require a falling out of Harden/Durant. Here are some random examples:
1) The cap could rise and open up enough space for OKC to grab a major impact free agent with a big contract, and thus convince Durant to give it another try.
2) Or he might get swayed by a supermax 5yr contract like Bosh did, especially with his bird rights and the increase in cap from the new TV money.
3) Harden or Howard could suffer a major career altering injury that makes Houston much less attractive to Durant as a place to win rings. No one wants injuries, but you never know in this sport.
4) OKC might get lucky and win it all, convincing him to stay.
5) There might be a more attractive situation to win elsewhere that sways him more than his friendship with Harden. Teams can rise or fall in 2 yrs, new stars can breakout, new team compositions can form up with trades or free agent signings (just see what a difference a single off-season made for Cleveland).
6) If OKC is convince he'll leave, they might trade him to a better situation for some return, and he'll stay there instead of coming to Houston, such as just happened with Kevin Love.
So, after seeing how the Rockets' projected pursuit and odds with Kevin Love and LMA changed within a year, or how the Bosh (and to an extent Parsons) fiasco turned out, the uncertainty with the new TV money, and everything else that can happen in 2 yrs, it's really not a good idea to make a firm bet on Durant going to Houston. Howard's contract will be up soon, so not a good idea to daydream about and keep promising tomorrow when it's a limited win now window given his age and contract expiration.
Morey needs to pull a rabbit out of his hat and make hay while the sun shines during this win now window, or it will close before you know it, with Howard gone or aging into decline or the ever present threat of a random career altering injury to Howard or, even worse, Harden. Rockets fans should know the ephemeral nature of such a window battling against time and freak injuries from the Yao experience and how suddenly it can close without warning.