Ron Swanson wrote:I mean, how many "strikeouts" are we even talking about here? I have:
Sternberger
Josh Jackson
JK Scott
J'Mon Moore?
Even if you want to throw Amari Rodgers in there (fair because I think he's already done), that's really the list in his entire 4 draft classes as a GM. If you're gonna name guys picked in the 6th-7th round that didn't stick on the roster, then you're reaching. That's almost always a crapshoot.
The whole draft is pretty much luck. If drafting high, you minimize your chances of drafting a bust, which then increases with every passing pick.
I'm pretty sure every GM would eventually have the same whiff rate if allowed to draft for 20 years or more, kind of like coin tosses averaging out over time even if you got like 8 tails in a row. There isn't some secret science Gute and crew figured out; he just happens to be on a favorable run (in some aspects). Therefore he deserves no criticism and no praise really on his picks.
Where he can be judged is on direction, i.e. is now the time to draft a first round QB at the cost of a WR, and based on what transpired thus far, the answer is no thus far.
Fans and media touting the greatness of a GM's draft skills is solely based on how much of a superstar the picks became. Which is probably total luck. Ryan Pace is considered a genius if his coin flip resulted in him taking Mahomes. The same genius who took Rodgers is the same guy picking Kevin King over TJ Watt.
Just found this article making this point far better than I can:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/