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Sedale Threatt
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Post#141 » by Sedale Threatt » Tue Feb 12, 2008 11:47 pm

KobeFan wrote:Can you see how your perception can be subjective (some Spurs fan might find him to be the guy they'd build a team around, because they saw him hit a game winning shot, or saw his defense step up in clutch moments, or he went on a stretch to lead the spurs to the playoffs when it mattered most..etc) but the numbers might give us a more objective view?


Obviously, statistics are an important tool with which to disprove myths and strengthen arguments. For the most part, I love the PER rating.

But in the end, a strict reliance on numbers -- which is basically what you're doing when you compare Worthy and Odom by PER -- fails to illustrate the entire picture. They might provide a more objective view, but it is not by definition a complete view.

As valuable as numbers and ratings and stats are, sometimes the eyes don't lie.

Having seen Robinson and Duncan in their prime, there isn't a question in my mind who I'd rather have, even though the statistics amassed by the former were significantly better in many cases than those compiled by the latter.

Just as I don't think there's any question that James was a significantly better player than Odom. Why? Because in the most important games, I knew that JW could be counted on to produce at a high and efficient level. As for Lamar, I still have no idea quite what to expect on a nightly basis.

Is that subjective? Of course. But considering that this entire debate is inherently subjective, I'm not going to apologize for that.
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Milan24
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Post#142 » by Milan24 » Tue Feb 12, 2008 11:50 pm

KobeFan wrote:I worded that wrong. I know there is mental toughness, however, I don't think it has as significant of an impact on the game as one might lead to believe. I certainly don't rule out that I can be wrong, but I would need to see a study of some sort to change that belief.

Also, basketball and golf require two very different skill sets.

Mental toughness doesn't have a huge impact on the game in general, except in clutch, pressure, game winning/losing situations. Then it is a significant factor.

If you ever played sports in which an individual moment can decide the game, and that individual moment fell on your shoulders, you would understand. And I am talking about a game of great importance not some rec. league title game.
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Kirk Moon
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Post#143 » by Kirk Moon » Tue Feb 12, 2008 11:53 pm

Sedale Threatt wrote:Also, regarding PER, it's a very valuable tool to measure the overall impact a player has. But considering Cedric Ceballos (19.33) has a higher rating than Walt Frazier (19.12), Gary Payton (18.87), Chris Mullin (18.77) and Scottie Pippen (18.63), I would hardly consider it infaliable.

So the fact that Lamar and JW are pretty close doesn't mean as much as it might seem, especially when you consider their overall bodies of work -- which several posters took pains to do, but you unfortunately decided to belittle as "worthless rhetoric."


this single paragraph makes the whole PER system look idiotic.
Bravo, Sir, this thread can be finally locked in peace.
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Post#144 » by KobeFan » Wed Feb 13, 2008 12:08 am

Why would you want a good on going discussion locked?
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EHL
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Post#145 » by EHL » Wed Feb 13, 2008 12:08 am

KobeFan wrote:Being a 3 time all star isn't a statistic, its an accolade.

I used PER which consolidates all major statistics; Worthy's prime was a notch a head of Odom's with similar seasons in between.


The stats are clear and were listed on page 7. Here they are in more detail in case you're still confused. Worthy put up:

- 21.5/5.1/2.2/62.2% in the 85 playoffs en route to a title
- 23.6/5.6/3.5/59.1% in the 87 playoffs en route to a title
- 21.1/5.8/4.4/52.3% in the 88 playoffs en route to back-to-back titles, winning a Finals MVP
- 24.8/6.7/2.8/56.7% in the 89 playoffs en route to the NBA Finals.

Odom doesn
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KobeFan
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Post#146 » by KobeFan » Wed Feb 13, 2008 12:17 am

There's roughly 5-20 playoff games a season. There's 82 games every season. Its hard to not question the size of the sample when looking at strictly playoff statistics.

So should we reward Worthy for being on a great team, it takes a supporting cast to earn those accolades and play off appearances (we as laker fans should know that more than anybody)

Odom's supporting cast has been the likes of NBDL rejects outside of Kobe for most of his Laker tenure. Do we adjust any of these numbers for era? The game is much different now than it was in the mid 80s.

How much more important is Odom's rebounding, passing, length, and versatility, comparatively?

Another thing, people seem to be taking my opposing view offensively. If thats the case, I apologize.
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EHL
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Post#147 » by EHL » Wed Feb 13, 2008 12:29 am

Firstly, there is no evidence to suggest one's overall stats diminish, on the aggregate, without great players around them. In fact, just the opposite has born out in reality; that players on bad teams tend to have more inflated statistics. Besides, Odom has played with Bryant for nearly 4 years, so you can't use that argument to begin with.

Secondly, I would say Odom's rebounding is important and certainly is his main advantage over Worthy. Though, I'm not sure how a 6 rpg differential in Odom's favor can possibly outweigh Worthy's consistently superior scoring (up to 6 ppg on up to 10% higher FGP). Their passing statistics are identical in the postseason with a slight edge to Worthy, and Worthy consistently played SF or PF when need be, so Odom holds no such versatility advantage that is evident to anyone who watched the two play. Not sure what his length has done for Odom that Worthy's great length (and superior quickness) didn't do for him. Both average defenders, though Worthy was consistently good as a defender in the clutch.

You do have a good point about era differences and how FGP's are more inflated, but the degree to which they're inflated is more in the range of 3-4%, not the 5%-10% differential in which Worthy consistently shot above Odom's FGP in the postseason or regular season.
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Post#148 » by EHL » Wed Feb 13, 2008 12:31 am

Also, while playoff games are small, they are what matter the most in the long-run. If a player's statistics, per minute, were considerably worse in the postseason than the regular season, like David Robinson, then something like that would bring down the overall value of that player's impact. 82 games of excellence means little if their postseason averages dip, their team fails to meet expectations due to their poor performance, and they're bounced earlier than they should be. Worthy is nicknamed Big Game for a reason; he truly brought his game up in the postseason, statistically or otherwise the evidence is 100% apparent.
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blix
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Post#149 » by blix » Wed Feb 13, 2008 1:05 am

KobeFan wrote:Another thing, people seem to be taking my opposing view offensively. If thats the case, I apologize.


You initially had a touch of a condescending tone, but I've been known to do the same. So no worries here.

On the subject of mental toughness (and I may be way outside the box on this one):

Imagine taking 100 pitches from Roger Clemens.
Now imagine taking the same 100 pitches (speed, etc) from a machine.

My gut tells me that the average baseball player, that actually has the hand/eye coordination to make it happen, would hit more from the machine even though they are the same. The thought of staring down Clemens takes it to another level, even though from a scientific standpoint the balls are doing the exact same thing.
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Post#150 » by TommyTheCat » Wed Feb 13, 2008 1:38 am

blix wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



You initially had a touch of a condescending tone, but I've been known to do the same. So no worries here.

On the subject of mental toughness (and I may be way outside the box on this one):

Imagine taking 100 pitches from Roger Clemens.
Now imagine taking the same 100 pitches (speed, etc) from a machine.

My gut tells me that the average baseball player, that actually has the hand/eye coordination to make it happen, would hit more from the machine even though they are the same. The thought of staring down Clemens takes it to another level, even though from a scientific standpoint the balls are doing the exact same thing.


is the machine on steroids?
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blix
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Post#151 » by blix » Wed Feb 13, 2008 1:39 am

Sasha?
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