PG: Back on Track, Bucks Pound Pacers

[TroyD92]

By the time Donte needs a new contract, the Bucks will have invested ~118m in 4 players assuming Giannis signs the supermax (Giannis, Middleton, Bledsoe, Brook). I wouldn't be surprised if by that time Donte is percieved as a luxury we cannot afford. Obviously there are many other options than trading Donte but it should definately be on the table. Mind you, this is far away right now but if we were to trade Donte, maximizing his value isn't that far away (this offseason to next season's trade deadline).

Why would that be your time table for maximising his value? Seems like you're a full year off


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Cause from my experience the value of a non-starter on a rookie contract decreases significantly with time post extension deadline. Teams that are comfortable with a looming extension in FA leverage the **** out of you that is not comfortable. There are obvious exceptions like the Knight trade (allthough I'm sure Phoenix thought Knight could have been a future all-star level player). But for every Knight you get an Oubre, Payton, etc..
Trades in the summer are highly dependant on a player willing to agree to said extension (see Prince to the Nets e.g.). Imo for a player that has already displayed his full skillset, the trade deadline is the ideal time to trade. You get to showcase year 3 improvement and it's far enough away from the time he'll hit FA. That said, not many teams do big buisness during the deadline so the summer before/after may be better timings if you can't find a buyer.

Bled and Brook will not have a higher priority than DDV. Both would be moved before trading DDV imo

[tedbrogen]

Why would that be your time table for maximising his value? Seems like you're a full year off


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Cause from my experience the value of a non-starter on a rookie contract decreases significantly with time post extension deadline. Teams that are comfortable with a looming extension in FA leverage the **** out of you that is not comfortable. There are obvious exceptions like the Knight trade (allthough I'm sure Phoenix thought Knight could have been a future all-star level player). But for every Knight you get an Oubre, Payton, etc..
Trades in the summer are highly dependant on a player willing to agree to said extension (see Prince to the Nets e.g.). Imo for a player that has already displayed his full skillset, the trade deadline is the ideal time to trade. You get to showcase year 3 improvement and it's far enough away from the time he'll hit FA. That said, not many teams do big buisness during the deadline so the summer before/after may be better timings if you can't find a buyer.

Bled and Brook will not have a higher priority than DDV. Both would be moved before trading DDV imo

If Donte continues on his current trajectory and has no health issues, this is spot on. Also, Bled and Brook only overlap a new Donte contract by one season. By the time Donte's new contract will be in year two the only other big contracts currently on the books will be Middleton's current deal and the supermax Giannis is going to sign this summer.

The only reason to trade Donte is if it absolutely required to get another superstar that is somehow available. Like if Dame demanded a trade to the Bucks. In which case salary again goes out the window.

They traded Brodgan for more reasons than just salary. First it would have put them into the luxury tax TWO SEASONS early. They know they are going in to the tax when the Giannis max kicks in. Brogdn had huge injury red flags. Martin seemed to not like Milwaukee as a city. Martn wanted more usage.

They will not trade Donte due to not wanting to pay him. He is so much more impactful than Brodgin ever was or will be.

[FlagsFlyForever]

It's hard to believe because the Kidd years seem so long ago but it was only two seasons ago. Two seasons ago when Tony Snell and John Henson were starters and Thon Maker played the most minutes off the bench. Jason Terry, Delly, DeAndre Liggins, and Tyler Zeller were rotation players. Brandon Jennings, Sean Kilpatrick, Shabazz Muhammad, and Rashad Vaughn found themselves in the rotation for part of that season as Brogdon missed half the season. Now we're about to lock up the best record in the NBA for the second year in a row and our roster is so stacked that a player like Ersan isn't even in the rotation.

Giannis era:
2013/14: 15-67
2014/15: 41-41
2015/16: 33-49
2016/17: 42-40
2017/18: 44-38
2018/19: 60-22
2019/20: 70.1-11.9

If they had Bud instead of Kidd, it's probably something like:
15/16: 41-41
16/17: 55-27
17/18: 60-22

Giannis was already tremendously impactful, they just held him down with poor spacing and a dumb-dumb defense scheme.

The biggest thing that held the Bucks back was that they surrounded Giannis with garbage. I remember posting two years ago that the team was performing at an elite level any time Thon wasn't on the floor.

viewtopic.php?p=62699510#p62699510

Points per 100 possessions:
Bucks w/ Plumlee on the court (+11.7)
1. Golden State Warriors (+10.5)
Bucks w/ Henson on the court (+7.4)
2. Houston Rockets (+7.4)
3. Toronto Raptors (+6.8)
4. Boston Celtics (+4.4)
5. Oklahoma City Thunder (+3.9)
6. San Antonio Spurs (+3.8)
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (+3.2)
8. Philadelphia 76ers (+2.4)
9. Indiana Pacers (+1.6)
10. Washington Wizards (+1.5)
11. New Orleans Pelicans (+1.2)
12. Portland Trail Blazers (+0.7)
14. LA Clippers (+0.6)
15. Cleveland Cavaliers (+0.3)
16. Denver Nuggets (0.0)
17. Charlotte Hornets (-0.1)
18. Utah Jazz (-0.9)
19. Miami Heat (-1.2)
20. Detroit Pistons (-1.2)
21. New York Knicks (-1.3)
22. Dallas Mavericks (-2.2)
23. Los Angeles Lakers (-3.0)
24. Memphis Grizzlies (-3.1)
25. Brooklyn Nets (-3.9)
26. Atlanta Hawks (-4.6)
27. Orlando Magic (-4.9)
28. Chicago Bulls (-6.1)
29. Phoenix Suns (-7.3)
Bucks w/ Thon on the court (-9.4)
30. Sacramento Kings (-9.6)

Giannis & Henson on the floor together (+9.5, 973 minutes)
Henson, no Giannis (-3.4, 210 minutes)
Giannis & Thon (-2.0, 514 minutes)
Thon, no Giannis (-17.6, 359 minutes)

That obviously wasn't because Henson was a stud. The team should've been a contender before Bud ever got here but Kidd had zero eye for talent and we played guys like Thon and Liggins which absolutely tanked the team (and thankfully ultimately himself).

[LuessiT]

Bled and Brook will not have a higher priority than DDV. Both would be moved before trading DDV imo

Bled and especially Brook won't have significant trade value by that time though. Donte will.

I understand that this train of thought isn't attractive for fans - we've got a young stud and we want to envision him with the Bucks long term. I'm just saying there is a non-zero percent chance we trade him before he's a RFA.

[LuessiT]

They traded Brodgan for more reasons than just salary. First it would have put them into the luxury tax TWO SEASONS early. They know they are going in to the tax when the Giannis max kicks in. Brogdn had huge injury red flags. Martin seemed to not like Milwaukee as a city. Martn wanted more usage.

They will not trade Donte due to not wanting to pay him. He is so much more impactful than Brodgin ever was or will be.

Got to say this is hilarious.

[Baddy Chuck]

And Martin Brogdan.

[emunney]

I do miss Mookie Brockton though.

Bledsoe's deal runs two more years fully guaranteed and is then guaranteed 3.9m in a 3rd year. I don't think it was a dumb coincidence that he's guaranteed big money for the same amount of time Donte's guaranteed small money. Not that the decision is predetermined, but that there will be one. Wouldn't worry about it this year or next year. Summer '21 is the time for that.

[MAC1987]

Bled and Brook will not have a higher priority than DDV. Both would be moved before trading DDV imo

Bled and especially Brook won't have significant trade value by that time though. Donte will.

I understand that this train of thought isn't attractive for fans - we've got a young stud and we want to envision him with the Bucks long term. I'm just saying there is a non-zero percent chance we trade him before he's a RFA.

I would almost bet it is 0% chance we trade Donte. The reason being we are not a young team anymore. Bucks are the 3rd oldest. That's gross. But also why I like the fact we kept our 1st round pick from the Pacers (so far).

[TroyD92]

Bled and Brook will not have a higher priority than DDV. Both would be moved before trading DDV imo

Bled and especially Brook won't have significant trade value by that time though. Donte will.

I understand that this train of thought isn't attractive for fans - we've got a young stud and we want to envision him with the Bucks long term. I'm just saying there is a non-zero percent chance we trade him before he's a RFA.

I would almost bet it is 0% chance we trade Donte. The reason being we are not a young team anymore. Bucks are the 3rd oldest. That's gross. But also why I like the fact we kept our 1st round pick from the Pacers (so far).

I agree, but that number is a little skewed by guys like Korver and Ersan. Bucks were third in age to start the season. Marvin/Bender causes some fluctuation, but in reality all that matters is Giannis/Middleton. I love Bled, but he's not a core piece. He's a talented guard who's still relatively young and is on a bargain contract. Lopez if he could find some semblance of a three point shot would be another bargain.

[Ruzious]

They traded Brodgan for more reasons than just salary. First it would have put them into the luxury tax TWO SEASONS early. They know they are going in to the tax when the Giannis max kicks in. Brogdn had huge injury red flags. Martin seemed to not like Milwaukee as a city. Martn wanted more usage.

They will not trade Donte due to not wanting to pay him. He is so much more impactful than Brodgin ever was or will be.

Got to say this is hilarious.

Ugg, now I've forgotten how to spell his name.

But back when I could spell it, I was so wrong. I said to sign Br... er him, and don't pay the fortune it would take to sign Midds. Wrong and wrongerer.

[LuessiT]

I do miss Mookie Brockton though.

Bledsoe's deal runs two more years fully guaranteed and is then guaranteed 3.9m in a 3rd year. I don't think it was a dumb coincidence that he's guaranteed big money for the same amount of time Donte's guaranteed small money. Not that the decision is predetermined, but that there will be one. Wouldn't worry about it this year or next year. Summer '21 is the time for that.

This very well could just be how this situation is played out. All I'm saying is its possible that we're trading Donte.