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Constructing the Timberwolves rotation

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Jedzz
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Re: Constructing the Timberwolves rotation 

Post#481 » by Jedzz » Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:02 am

shrink wrote:For the record, I did not say LeVert was worth our 2020 pick. I was pointing out the type of young assets that a rebuilding team might prefer to the 25 year old LeVert.


I'll quote your post for you. You sound like you are trying to suggest he's good for here, even suggesting he would push Beasley out of starting lineup here. :lol: Also say you could see us sending away youth and picks for him and to help knicks get Beal. You have one line in all of that talking about how teams may not want a 25 year old for their situation and that makes him available to us. Adding to that his injury history that ...makes him affordable to us... as if hes' too good for that price range otherwise. This is you suggesting he's a fit here with great upside and a doable trade including Wolves picks, no?

shrink wrote:I like the idea of Caris LeVert.

I feel like he was on his way to stardom until he had that gruesome injury - he Nets clearly liked him better than “all star” Russell. It’s hard to find teams willing to trade young players with star potential, but the Nets and Kyrie/Durant are “win now or bust!”, and Dinwiddie is tight with Irving and unlikely to be traded, so LeVert is their best trade asset to improve that team. His injuries and bad luck keep him in our price range for trade assets.

Levert’s also locked up for three years on a salary I can accept ($16,203,704 $17,500,000 $18,796,296). He shot over 38% on three pointers, and has the athleticism and length to be a good defender. It might mean Beasley gets pushed to sixth man, or we lose him entirely because someone else wants to pay him to be a starter, but I think the higher ceiling is worth it.

At age 25, I think he fits with us, but may appeal less to a team trading an older star for a chance to rebuild. For example, I could see a trade where WAS decides they need to finally rebuild, and make a three way where Nets add Beal, MIN gets LeVert, WAS gets some of our youth/picks.


How about this. Nets add Beal, WAS gets LeVert along with whatever else the knicks can send. Afterall Levert has such a high ceiling and old man 26 year old 6'3" Beal has done nothing so far to carry Washington anywhere special. Twolves can just stay out of it entirely.

Levert does appear to have shown a much improved 3pt shot from his three prior seasons. Getting it up to 38% from previous lows of 31 or 34% is a nice achievement. His TS of this same year being at his low of .509 is a little concerning. But he kind of seems like an Andrew Wiggins without the former #1 overall hanging over his head. 6-8 and just over 200 pounds. He's averaged 25 minutes a game in these 4 years, maybe the shot is starting to come around. I would agree 16/17 a season is better than 31-35 a season. For a 20-25th range pick to show a good leap in 3pt percentage is pretty good sighn I guess. Or maybe it's just early in the shortened season. Wait, he played as much as he has in most seasons. Roughly half the games. Not sure, send them young players we have no room for maybe. Wouldn't be sending top 15 picks for a top 20 player from 2016 that averages 45 games a season and at best 17 points on 30 mins a game. Tough sell for me. If they think he's a perfect fit here and have to have him, then trade a young player and a 2nd rounder. But I don't see how he's good enough to push Beasley to 6th man. Where is the evidence of that?
minimus
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Re: Constructing the Timberwolves rotation 

Post#482 » by minimus » Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:52 pm

Read on Twitter


We. Need. Slashers. Who. Can. Finish. At. Rim.
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Re: Constructing the Timberwolves rotation 

Post#483 » by shrink » Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:17 pm

minimus wrote:
Read on Twitter


We. Need. Slashers. Who. Can. Finish. At. Rim.

Being average at one skill is a “real problem?” Especially with all the good stuff he brings? And at only $3.7 mil?

I really have no idea why you follow and repost this guy.
minimus
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Re: Constructing the Timberwolves rotation 

Post#484 » by minimus » Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:44 pm

It looks we are trying to build an identity that in offense is perfect antidote for opponent deep drop defensive scheme AND should be a well executed deep drop defense to make other team adjust their offense. Let me explain. I watched this video:



Our "five out" offense built around exceptional shooting and passing skills of KAT and DLo will have enough good shooting opportunities to score efficiently from 3pt and make opponent adjust. Moreover, deep drop scheme is built around physical presence of "oversized" bigs such as Lopez at С, Giannis at PF etc. However, a properly implemented "pace and space", running smalball team will put slow bigs on clinic in transition. Thats why getting an athletic, mobile PF is key for us.

On other hand to make our system work in defense we need our version of Giannis type player at PF. Lopez is willing 3pt shooter because in their offensive scheme they need to mitigate Giannis lack of 3pt shooting. This is the way offense and defense are connected. Below videos of Isaac and Gordon against MIL. They both struggled mightily which is not a surprise since they played only one shooter Fournier in starting five. Birch-Gordon-Isaac-Fournier-Fultz unit invites you to clog the paint. Still Isaac had in one game 5, in another game without Giannis he had 7 steals.



minimus
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Re: Constructing the Timberwolves rotation 

Post#485 » by minimus » Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:52 pm

shrink wrote:
minimus wrote:
Read on Twitter

We. Need. Slashers. Who. Can. Finish. At. Rim.

Being average at one skill is a “real problem?” Especially with all the good stuff he brings? And at only $3.7 mil?

I really have no idea why you follow and repost this guy.


Well, Layman is average at many things, for instance passing, rebounding, defending, shooting slashing. But finishing at rim is a real problem since he cant create off the dribble. Also it is indication for whole team that we lack athletic bigs and wings. It is not surprise since we have guys like Dieng, Reid, Juancho, Layman, Graham, RoCo playing at C/PF.

P.S. Jake Paynting has started recently a podcast and have found some good things about MIN.
shrink
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Re: Constructing the Timberwolves rotation 

Post#486 » by shrink » Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:24 pm

minimus wrote:
shrink wrote:
minimus wrote:
Read on Twitter

We. Need. Slashers. Who. Can. Finish. At. Rim.

Being average at one skill is a “real problem?” Especially with all the good stuff he brings? And at only $3.7 mil?

I really have no idea why you follow and repost this guy.


Well, Layman is average at many things, for instance passing, rebounding, defending, shooting slashing. But finishing at rim is a real problem since he cant create off the dribble. Also it is indication for whole team that we lack athletic bigs and wings. It is not surprise since we have guys like Dieng, Reid, Juancho, Layman, Graham, RoCo playing at C/PF.

P.S. Jake Paynting has started recently a podcast and have found some good things about MIN.

Are you Jake Paynting? This seems to me to be the only reason you’d defend 40th and 48th percentile as “a real problem,” and not “average.”

And guess what? If you can get “average” for 40% of the price of the average NBA salary, that’s a bargain. Despite your trades, a real NBA team can’t afford to make a team full of stars. Yes, Layman isn’t a star - and that should not be your expectation, or Paynting’s yardstick.

For the record, one thing Layman is not average at is .. playing next to Towns. Layman has one of the best Net Rtgs with Towns on the team. Is “overall play with your star” an important quality to not be average at?

This is not a mirage. The stats back up what Ryan Saunders has said since he was acquired. Layman’s constant cutting really makes the Wolves run. He is not a star - he is a catalyst for the team.
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Re: Constructing the Timberwolves rotation 

Post#487 » by minimus » Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:42 pm

shrink wrote:
minimus wrote:
shrink wrote:Being average at one skill is a “real problem?” Especially with all the good stuff he brings? And at only $3.7 mil?

I really have no idea why you follow and repost this guy.


Well, Layman is average at many things, for instance passing, rebounding, defending, shooting slashing. But finishing at rim is a real problem since he cant create off the dribble. Also it is indication for whole team that we lack athletic bigs and wings. It is not surprise since we have guys like Dieng, Reid, Juancho, Layman, Graham, RoCo playing at C/PF.

P.S. Jake Paynting has started recently a podcast and have found some good things about MIN.

Are you Jake Paynting? This seems to me to be the only reason you’d defend 40th and 48th percentile as “a real problem,” and not “average.”

And guess what? If you can get “average” for a price of 40% of the average NBA salary, that’s a bargain. Despite your trades, a real NBA team can’t afford to make a team full of stars. Yes, Layman isn’t a star - and that should not be your expectation, or Paynting’s yardstick.

For the record, one thing Layman is not average at is .. playing next to Towns. Layman has one of the best Net Rtgs with Towns on the team. Is “overall play with your star” an important quality to not be average at?

This is not a mirage. The stats back up what Ryan Saunders has said since he was acquired. Layman’s constant cutting really makes the Wolves run. He is not a star - he is a catalyst for the team.


Well, I agree that Layman fits well in our system, his contract is bargain. However, our system lacks quality slashers, finishers at rim and Layman doesn't help here. I think it will be addressed via draft and FA market. Layman is only a role player, who is very important for our team. The real problem is that MIN for years doesn't have bench depth. Layman is the only one realible wing in our rotation.

P.S. Jake Paynting is from Australia, I am from Kazakhstan :)
minimus
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Re: Constructing the Timberwolves rotation 

Post#488 » by minimus » Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:00 pm

Excellent video about drop scheme etc.



As I said before our five out offense is a perfect antidote against such drop scheme. However, we need to improve our communication in defense in order to build top15 defense around KAT. Sure, we need athletic, longarmed defender, but I dont see us defending well if KAT is not directing defense and wings are not helping/rotating properly.
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Re: Constructing the Timberwolves rotation 

Post#489 » by minimus » Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:40 am

Good article:

https://awolfamongwolves.com/how-impactful-could-a-towns-and-russell-pick-and-roll-tandem-truly-be/

Perhaps Russell’s effectiveness as a pick-and-roll ball-handler will increase when playing alongside a more effective pick-and-roll big. Last season – when playing in Brooklyn – Russel ranked in the 66.7 percentile when playing alongside Jarrett Allen – who was in the 62nd percentile among bigs – and running 3.7 pick-and-roll possessions per game.

Having a quality roll-man is as beneficial for Russell in the pick-and-roll, as it is with every other ball-handler in the NBA.


A quality roll-man usually is bigger, taller than opponent: see Jarrett Allen, DeAndre Jordan, AD etc. It just logical consequence because it is much easier to finish at rim, when your rolling man is bigger, taller than opponent. GSW partially workarounded, modified this play, by implementing short rolls, when Draymond Green works as rolling man, but quickly makes an extra pass to open shooter or cutter or player in dunker spot. It seems to be an interesting solution for us. Both KAT and Reid are good passers and mobile enough to make this play work. We still need good finishers at rim though.
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Re: Constructing the Timberwolves rotation 

Post#490 » by minimus » Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:38 pm

Good article about Jake Layman first year in MIN.

https://www.canishoopus.com/2020/6/24/21296678/offseason-outlook-jake-layman-nba-offseason

To sum up: we need a lot of help at PF/SF positions. We need to find starting PF and SF, ideally our starters at PF and SF should be either elite finishers at rim and average 3pt shooters or vice versa. They also must be above average defenders.
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Re: Constructing the Timberwolves rotation 

Post#491 » by KGdaBom » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:28 am

Jedzz wrote:
shrink wrote:For the record, I did not say LeVert was worth our 2020 pick. I was pointing out the type of young assets that a rebuilding team might prefer to the 25 year old LeVert.


I'll quote your post for you. You sound like you are trying to suggest he's good for here, even suggesting he would push Beasley out of starting lineup here. :lol: Also say you could see us sending away youth and picks for him and to help knicks get Beal. You have one line in all of that talking about how teams may not want a 25 year old for their situation and that makes him available to us. Adding to that his injury history that ...makes him affordable to us... as if hes' too good for that price range otherwise. This is you suggesting he's a fit here with great upside and a doable trade including Wolves picks, no?

shrink wrote:I like the idea of Caris LeVert.

I feel like he was on his way to stardom until he had that gruesome injury - he Nets clearly liked him better than “all star” Russell. It’s hard to find teams willing to trade young players with star potential, but the Nets and Kyrie/Durant are “win now or bust!”, and Dinwiddie is tight with Irving and unlikely to be traded, so LeVert is their best trade asset to improve that team. His injuries and bad luck keep him in our price range for trade assets.

Levert’s also locked up for three years on a salary I can accept ($16,203,704 $17,500,000 $18,796,296). He shot over 38% on three pointers, and has the athleticism and length to be a good defender. It might mean Beasley gets pushed to sixth man, or we lose him entirely because someone else wants to pay him to be a starter, but I think the higher ceiling is worth it.

At age 25, I think he fits with us, but may appeal less to a team trading an older star for a chance to rebuild. For example, I could see a trade where WAS decides they need to finally rebuild, and make a three way where Nets add Beal, MIN gets LeVert, WAS gets some of our youth/picks.


How about this. Nets add Beal, WAS gets LeVert along with whatever else the knicks can send. Afterall Levert has such a high ceiling and old man 26 year old 6'3" Beal has done nothing so far to carry Washington anywhere special. Twolves can just stay out of it entirely.

Levert does appear to have shown a much improved 3pt shot from his three prior seasons. Getting it up to 38% from previous lows of 31 or 34% is a nice achievement. His TS of this same year being at his low of .509 is a little concerning. But he kind of seems like an Andrew Wiggins without the former #1 overall hanging over his head. 6-8 and just over 200 pounds. He's averaged 25 minutes a game in these 4 years, maybe the shot is starting to come around. I would agree 16/17 a season is better than 31-35 a season. For a 20-25th range pick to show a good leap in 3pt percentage is pretty good sighn I guess. Or maybe it's just early in the shortened season. Wait, he played as much as he has in most seasons. Roughly half the games. Not sure, send them young players we have no room for maybe. Wouldn't be sending top 15 picks for a top 20 player from 2016 that averages 45 games a season and at best 17 points on 30 mins a game. Tough sell for me. If they think he's a perfect fit here and have to have him, then trade a young player and a 2nd rounder. But I don't see how he's good enough to push Beasley to 6th man. Where is the evidence of that?

Levert an easy choice over Beasley for me.
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Re: Constructing the Timberwolves rotation 

Post#492 » by minimus » Mon Jul 6, 2020 1:25 pm

From what I see Rosas and Co are using two different approaches to fill our roster with talent:

* - get physically gifted players who cant shoot and develop them. Examples: Vanderbilt, Culver, Okogie. It is easy to see that if any player of this group, will develop consistent 3pt shoot will be at least a solid starter.
* - get players who can shoot and develop them. Shooting does not always translate well from college level to NBA. But the risk is worth the gamble. Examples: JMac, Nowell, Martin, Reid.

Both approaches are very risky, but might bring the most value out of our draft capital and under radar FAs. A few years ago there was another approach:

* - get size advantage, in order to use it against smaller teams. Example, Thibs continuously giving big contracts to players based purely on size: Aldrich, Hill, Dieng, Shabazz. Nowadays size advantage alone is not enough, usually it should be size and shooting (Brook Lopez, Marc Gasol), or size and mobility/quickness (Giannis, AD) or size and passing/IQ (Jokic, Nurkic)

If I look at Cristian Wood, Siakam, Kawhi, Giannis development path it was worth waiting 3-4 yrs, before young player starts to contribute. In some cases you can get an immediate impact from rookie: see Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, Nunn (technically not a rookie). Other candidates for us to scout:

* - Dragan Bender
* - De’Anthony Melton
* - Nerlens Noel
* - Derrick Jones Jr.
* - Bruno Caboclo
* - Willie Cauley-Stein

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