Will Miller and Love hurt Al's numbers?

[ZenBaller]

Hey Wolves fans,

On the court I'm sure Love and Miller will make the Wolves a lot better.. but I'm asking fantasy-wise. Al had an elite stat-year with 21-11-1.5-50%, but with with two great rebounders on board (Love and Miller), I get the feeling that his rebs will fall and probably his ppg too. Maybe something like 18-8?

What do you think? Will Jefferson still be the main offensive weapon? Give me a stat projection and discuss

Thanks!

[collin_k41]

I don't really think this has been discussed previously at length on this board but to tell you the truth my opinion is that his numbers will be similar. Remember, Big Al was double and even triple teamed ALL THE TIME last season. He was our only major offensive threat and we had no one besides maybe Mccants that he could dish to on the permiter to make the other team pay. Now he does. I think we'll have to prove we can hit shots first but teams in short will have to pick their poison(as somebodies sig says). If teams double al they will be punished with our shooting. If they play straight up Al will crush any opposing defender. His rebounding is one stat that could likely see a drop but I would think his assist numbers will go up.

[Devilzsidewalk]

KG had his best season w/ Sprewell and Cassell, I think you can put up good numbers as long as the guys help take pressure off, and those 2 should take a bunch of pressure off. Don't be surprised to see an increase in PPG

[deeney0]

I don't think Al's points will go down, but it's possible. I think his rebounds will stay constant. Miller and Love won't affect Al's offensive boards. On defense, I don't think 20-24 minutes of Love (which is all he's going to average as a rookie on the Wolves), is enough to dent Al's totals even a full rebound. I expect Millers boards to go down on the Wolves - his boards were so high on Memphis because they had poor rebounding bigs.

[shrink]

I don't think Al's points will go down, but it's possible. I think his rebounds will stay constant. Miller and Love won't affect Al's offensive boards. On defense, I don't think 20-24 minutes of Love (which is all he's going to average as a rookie on the Wolves), is enough to dent Al's totals even a full rebound. I expect Millers boards to go down on the Wolves - his boards were so high on Memphis because they had poor rebounding bigs.

I agree with deeney0. Al's numbers last year were spectacular (Top 10-15 in the NBA), and even mroe impressive because he was often the Wolves only threat, and facing double and triple teams. MIN now has three of the top fifteen NBA three-point shooters by percentage (averaging 10+ PPG), and that is going to free up Al. Will his FG% be above 50%? Its quite possible. Will his rebounds decrease? I doubt it. Love will get some, but when he sets up on the high post, Al's offensive boards (#2 in the NBA at 3.8 OREBs), may even go up. I could see his scoring level out, but I suspect his 21/11 average could be like 20/12.5 with a higher FG%. He's going to be scary .. a late second rounder in fantasy.

[ZenBaller]

Thanks for the feedback guys. You cleared some things in my mind. I think his assists will go up yes.. maybe +0.5-1.5 but I'm still not sure about his rebs/points. He is definitely worth a 2nd round pick.

I have picks 20 and 21 and I'm thinking of 2 centers or 2 PGs maybe. Something like Jefferson-Bosh/Gasol or Baron/Nash.

[andyhop]

I expect that Al's rebounding numbers will drop to around 10 per game with the addition of Love and Miller.On the other hand I expect both his scoring and Fg% to increase slightly.

I'll go with 22.5/10/54%.

[Klomp]

Isn't it a bit early for fantasy basketball?

[ZenBaller]

Isn't it a bit early for fantasy basketball?

It's relatively early generally but I'm in a extremely deep league and everyone is making draft plans and sleepers' lists since June so not so early for me! Yahoo opens up early September anyway.

I don't think Al Jeff is going to be available at 20 where I pick after all, but who knows.. if he's still there it's a no-brainer.

[shrink]

Isn't it a bit early for fantasy basketball?

When I played fantasy bball seriously, I gave up fantasy football because it interfered with thorough draft prep. Computer modeling can only go so far to predict future stats. Its guys like zen, who do the legwork early on players who have had major changes in their situation, that end up in the money.

[shrink]

Incidentally zen, I assume that if you draft 20 - 21, and you say the league is really deep, this is a 20-team league and not a 10-team one. I gave 20-team leagues a try once, and I don't recommend them because they often do not represent the skill of the owner. The problem is that fantasy production is a bell-shaped curve, and one injury to a top guy can create an unwinnable situation. You can make a whole bunch of good picks in the 200's, but these guys upside simply does not allow them to break into the top 80 players. While some of these picks will be starters for every team, you can't make up enough ground to protect you from injuries for your key players. Since injuries can at times be unpredictable, the fact that your key players are 20, 21, 60, 61, then 100 makes the structure of the game too dependent on luck. The guy you bring off your bench to replace your key player (that guy that isn't a starter among your handful of good late picks) is just too big a downgrade in that deep a league (41>>>261)

I'm not trying to be a killjoy here, and it can still be fun. I just don't want you to be so heavily invested in it after the early prep to feel bad if you don't win.

[JMillott]

I think Al Jefferson is still going to get quite a bit better and that he will not level out for a few more years.

1. I think putting a better team around him with better shooters and passers will lead to increased efficentcy from Al Jefferson.

2. I think being a better team and Al Jefferson becoming a veteran will lead to him getting to the line more often instead of the refs letting him get hacked all the time.

3. I truely believe that Al Jefferson is good enough to develop into a legit 25 PPG, 11-12 RPG allstar at either PF/C and that playing with Kevin Love will be a great fit. I suspect the Wolves will have one of the best PF-C combos in the league for a longtime.

[ZenBaller]

Incidentally zen, I assume that if you draft 20 - 21, and you say the league is really deep, this is a 20-team league and not a 10-team one. I gave 20-team leagues a try once, and I don't recommend them because they often do not represent the skill of the owner. The problem is that fantasy production is a bell-shaped curve, and one injury to a top guy can create an unwinnable situation. You can make a whole bunch of good picks in the 200's, but these guys upside simply does not allow them to break into the top 80 players. While some of these picks will be starters for every team, you can't make up enough ground to protect you from injuries for your key players. Since injuries can at times be unpredictable, the fact that your key players are 20, 21, 60, 61, then 100 makes the structure of the game too dependent on luck. The guy you bring off your bench to replace your key player (that guy that isn't a starter among your handful of good late picks) is just too big a downgrade in that deep a league (41>>>261)

I'm not trying to be a killjoy here, and it can still be fun. I just don't want you to be so heavily invested in it after the early prep to feel bad if you don't win.

You're not a killjoy, I'm too addicted to fantasy basketball to lose my excitement I run this 20-team league for 4 years and we're all so fired up every season. The past couple of years we even made a draft lottery and had a prize for the winner.

I know what you mean and you're right about the key injuries. But there are so many other factors that make the 20team league better or let's say more "realistic". In a 10-12 team league everyone has a good team more or less... but when you have to pick 20 teams x 13 players = 260 players... you have to have deep NBA knowledge and skills and that makes it very challenging. After the first 5-6 rounds things get very tough and picking the right sleepers makes the difference. This is the real fantasy coaching.

And of course there's the FA pool. It's a wasteland but every now and then you have to guess which players are going to break out. It's actual scouting, checking the box scores everyday, watching the stats of ALL players.

Last season we had the best final ever. The one finalist had no key injuries all year long. He had a great team with KG, Okafor, Gay, Dunleavy etc. The other team had major injuries. They lost Gasol for some time, Jermaine O'Neal and some others but he did manage to sign Chris Quinn, Spencer Hawes and a couple of other insane sleepers who averaged huge numbers in the last month and the final finished 6-6. The first team won in total points scored. So in the end.. It's more about making a good Draft and signing the right FAs than being unlucky with injuries.

[deeney0]

I can envision scenarios where Al's points go down - this team wants to run more, that means more points for everyone BUT Al if they keep it up. But I think he increases his FG% and FTA enough that with one to two less FGA he's still about the same in points. On the other hand, the Wolves stopped going to Al as much the second half of last year to "explore" the other young talent. They won't do that this year.

[JMillott]

Even with the talent level being much improved in general on the Wolves it shouldn't limit Al Jefferson from being the #1 offensive option and that is still going to lead to him averaging 15-16 FGA per game.

Now that will be down from the 17-18 FGA he was averaging last season yes but again he is also going to see less defensive attention as long as the Wolves talented players stay healthy. As I stated before he is also now heading into being a respected veteran which BS or not will increase the calls he gets from the refs when he gets fouled.

Having shooters around him who can also pass the basketball and are willing to do so should make life much easier for him as should having a legit starting big next to him in Kevin Love who also can both shoot and pass.

Last year he basically had to make do with one or the other as McCants can shoot it as well as anybody but isn't a willing passer or a good passer either and the players who could/would pass couldn't really shoot it like Jaric, Telfair and Brewer.

Now it looks like the Wolves have a nice rotation of players who can and will do both in Randy Foye, Mike Miller, Ryan Gomes and Kevin Love. They also have enough of them that they should be able to keep Corey Brewer on the floor for his defense without his offensive problems getting in the way.

A player like Corey Brewer becomes highly valueable on a team full of good passers, shooters and team players much like a Bruce Bowen has been for the Spurs. Bruce Bowen wouldn't be worth a damn if he was playing with Telfair, Jaric or McCants either simply because the lack of shooting touch in those lineups allowed teams to collapse into the paint without fear.

When McCants was on the floor they had a second legit scoring option but he would freeze everybody else out and teams would live with his offense because it stopped everybody else and his turnovers often lead to free easy baskets at the other end.

You take a good look at the Wolves lineup now and its full of players who can be expected to shoot a high percentage, have solid assist numbers and assist to turnover ratios as well. Down the stretch of last season Randy Foye posted a near 3:1 assist to turnover ratio and should be a reasonably good second option this year and in time become a third option

Mike Miller is a respectable passer and ball handler should be good for close to a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio as well with his high percentage shooting and solid rebounding from the SG position. In fact if he does end up being the 4th option in the starting lineup that should give the Wolves one of the best 4th options in the league next season.

Ryan Gomes is also a respectable passer and posted a 1.5:1 assist to turnover ratio last year as well and again a healthy percentage from the floor. He may just be the best 5th option in any teams starting five this season.

Then the big one being Kevin Love who is a very smart and polished player even now as a rookie coming off a one year stint in college. If he can come directly in and be an accountable 3rd option for the Wolves they might make a push for the playoffs or if he can come in and be an accountable 2nd option they in my eyes will make the playoffs.

[JMillott]

Even with the talent level being much improved in general on the Wolves it shouldn't limit Al Jefferson from being the #1 offensive option and that is still going to lead to him averaging 15-16 FGA per game.

Now that will be down from the 17-18 FGA he was averaging last season yes but again he is also going to see less defensive attention as long as the Wolves talented players stay healthy. As I stated before he is also now heading into being a respected veteran which BS or not will increase the calls he gets from the refs when he gets fouled.

Having shooters around him who can also pass the basketball and are willing to do so should make life much easier for him as should having a legit starting big next to him in Kevin Love who also can both shoot and pass.

Last year he basically had to make do with one or the other as McCants can shoot it as well as anybody but isn't a willing passer or a good passer either and the players who could/would pass couldn't really shoot it like Jaric, Telfair and Brewer.

Now it looks like the Wolves have a nice rotation of players who can and will do both in Randy Foye, Mike Miller, Ryan Gomes and Kevin Love. They also have enough of them that they should be able to keep Corey Brewer on the floor for his defense without his offensive problems getting in the way.

A player like Corey Brewer becomes highly valueable on a team full of good passers, shooters and team players much like a Bruce Bowen has been for the Spurs. Bruce Bowen wouldn't be worth a damn if he was playing with Telfair, Jaric or McCants either simply because the lack of shooting touch in those lineups allowed teams to collapse into the paint without fear.

When McCants was on the floor they had a second legit scoring option but he would freeze everybody else out and teams would live with his offense because it stopped everybody else and his turnovers often lead to free easy baskets at the other end.

You take a good look at the Wolves lineup now and its full of players who can be expected to shoot a high percentage, have solid assist numbers and assist to turnover ratios as well. Down the stretch of last season Randy Foye posted a near 3:1 assist to turnover ratio and should be a reasonably good second option this year and in time become a third option

Mike Miller is a respectable passer and ball handler should be good for close to a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio as well with his high percentage shooting and solid rebounding from the SG position. In fact if he does end up being the 4th option in the starting lineup that should give the Wolves one of the best 4th options in the league next season.

Ryan Gomes is also a respectable passer and posted a 1.5:1 assist to turnover ratio last year as well and again a healthy percentage from the floor. He may just be the best 5th option in any teams starting five this season.

Then the big one being Kevin Love who is a very smart and polished player even now as a rookie coming off a one year stint in college. If he can come directly in and be an accountable 3rd option for the Wolves they might make a push for the playoffs or if he can come in and be an accountable 2nd option they in my eyes will make the playoffs.

[Devilzsidewalk]

A player like Corey Brewer becomes highly valueable on a team full of good passers, shooters and team players much like a Bruce Bowen has been for the Spurs. Bruce Bowen wouldn't be worth a damn if he was playing with Telfair, Jaric or McCants either simply because the lack of shooting touch in those lineups allowed teams to collapse into the paint without fear.

But Bowen is a great 3 point shooter, Brewer isn't. Bowen's 3 pt touch helps spread the floor, guys like Brewer himself collapse defenses in on Al. Brewer isn't highly valuable in any scenario unless he shows something new this season. If he brings what he brought last season, he's basically a 10th guy off the bench at best.

[andyhop]

A player like Corey Brewer becomes highly valueable on a team full of good passers, shooters and team players much like a Bruce Bowen has been for the Spurs. Bruce Bowen wouldn't be worth a damn if he was playing with Telfair, Jaric or McCants either simply because the lack of shooting touch in those lineups allowed teams to collapse into the paint without fear.

But Bowen is a great 3 point shooter, Brewer isn't. Bowen's 3 pt touch helps spread the floor, guys like Brewer himself collapse defenses in on Al. Brewer isn't highly valuable in any scenario unless he shows something new this season. If he brings what he brought last season, he's basically a 10th guy off the bench at best.

I don't really remember Bowen hitting anything other than wide open 3's ,so whilst he is a vastly better shooter than Brewer I don't think he spreads the floor any more than Corey does.

[Devilzsidewalk]

he's been a 40% 3 pt shooter this decade

and I know he's led the league in 3 pt shooting at least once

[andyhop]

he's been a 40% 3 pt shooter this decade

and I know he's led the league in 3 pt shooting at least once

But does he spread the floor ? because all I remember him doing is hitting wide open 3's from the corner after someone kicks the ball out to him.I don't remember him shooting the ball with a defender in his face.