knicksnyk wrote:vdfebduderocks wrote:in the end, as much as I hate seeing Lin leave... I have come to terms with what happened and then proposed this question:
Is Jeremy Lin worth 14.5 million dollars in three years? That's the real question. If so, then we also have to ask: Is Jeremy Lin worth spending these extra millions of dollars in luxury tax?
Then we also have to ask:
Can we win a championship in 3 years with Jeremy Lin/Melo/Stat/Iman Shumpert/the corpse of Jason Kidd/Novak/any other low first round pick or second round pick we get in the upcoming years?
If the last question is yes, then we should have signed him regardless of the luxury tax hit.
To be realistic, however, I don't think having Jeremy Lin will help lead us to a championship. Also, the luxury tax hit of his salary in year 3 exceeds the benefits of keeping him around.
Unfortunately, the players we have around us and the current structure of the NBA does not bode well for ball-dominant PGs. If history remains true, elite PGs usually do not go far in the playoffs (Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Shaq, Tim Duncan, etc. all say hi). Also, Woodson's system is not dependent on a ball-dominant PG. If we are going to win, the ball is NOT going to be in Felton's hands during crunch time.
So is it worth it to have a maxed out Lin come year 3, where Melo and Amare are still in their prime years? Nope.
Forget all star selections, fan votes, and popularity things with Linsanity. The Knicks will still remain a powerhouse economically with or without linsanity and with/without the brooklyn nets.
Lin was just not worth the money, especially come year 3.
the luxury tax had nothing to do with it. he was never a part of there plans from the begining. woodson likes veterans we can see that from the guys he picked up this offseason. woodson doesn't want to develop young guys. even if lin had played 51 games as opposed to 25 he still wouldn't be a knick. has nothing to do with lin being proven or unproven. money is not a factor trust me if the knicks were worried about money they would have negotiated with himm at the begining of free agency and signed him to a cap friendly deal but they didn't. the knicks just wanted to manage pr so they made it about money and sent out misinformation. is felton coming off the worst season of his career worth the contract they gave him? hell no. is kidd worth 9 million over 3 years when he really should be getting the veterans minimum? the knicks overpaid all season they could care less about money.
I think an extra $40-$60 million in additional luxury tax (depending on what article you read) could make a huge difference.
Let's think about it from a basketball and economic perspective:
What is the role of the PG going to be to help the Knicks win a championship? Lemme guess, it should probably be:
1) playing defense
2) facilitating ball movement
3) leadership
4) score when needed
So, we know that Lin can do this, but let me ask the following:
What's the market value for a guy that does those following four things? 2 million, 5 million, 10 million, 15 million?
In my opinion, i'd put my money anywhere from 5-10 million. Here's why:
Look at the elite PGs that are making the most money:
Parker
Rondo
Paul
Rose
Westbrook
Deron
Out of those 6, Parker and Rondo won championships. During Parker's last championship year, he average about 19/6. Offense still revolved around Duncan, and he really didn't dominate the ball like Parker/Ginobili did.
Rondo was a supporting player on the Celtics championship team. When he was only known as a defender/ballhawk. He only later became a better ball distributor.
The other 4 guys are ball-dominant PGs. Guess what's going on with all of them? Paul/Rose/Deron get knocked out of the playoffs by teams such as the Lakers (kobe says hi), and the Heat (lebron says hi). Westbrook made the finals last year, but look what happened to OKC... LeBron shut down Westbrook, Westbrook stopped distributing the ball, and the Heat eventually win.
Notice the trends.... we don't need a 20-10 type of player... one that Lin can potentially be. Can Lin fit in Woodson's system? Sure he can.
But how much value do you put on a guy that will fit into Mike Woodson's system and get you about 15 points/6-7 assists a game? Well you have some PGs like the worn-down Jason Kidd (not the Nets version), Derek Fisher, and a younger Tony Parker (circa 2002) producing those similar stats at salaries almost 1/2 or lower than the max. During this free agency process, a guy named Raymond Felton was available who can put those same amount of stats every game and has shown ,or is willing to learn how to lead as a PG, at 4 million dollars a year. Raymond Felton + Jason Kidd = $7 million dollars. Does Felton have the ability to play on a championship-caliber team like Jeremy Lin? Sure.
So now if you're able to get a player (or players) that can do the same exact thing for half the cost, why spend double? Not saying Lin won't be great, but there are a lot of different factors teams have to take in signing players, especially ones as popular as Lin.
On a side note, there is tremendous risk of paying max dollars to a guy who helped us out for 25 good games. There is a risk the injury doesn't heal properly, he regresses back to being only average, and other factors. Is it worth the risk to pay the max? Gotta consider that too.