Official MMA discussion thread pt 3 UFC 316: Merab vs O'Malley 2 and Harrison vs Pena

[NoDopeOnSundays]

JDM vs Belal was awesome, feel like Belal got started a little too late and agreed with the scores. Also, just got announced, Ilia vs Do Bronx

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[j4remi]

JDM vs Belal was awesome, feel like Belal got started a little too late and agreed with the scores. Also, just got announced, Ilia vs Do Bronx

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We have a bunch of fight announcements. Ilia vs. Charles is one of the most hyped fights. Islam vs. JDM has some intrigue to it since Islam's moving up. Chimaev vs. DDP finally got a date, too.

The IFW card pretty damned good from top to bottom.

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Ironically, now Ilia and Islam (Ali Abdelaziz more likely) are going back and forth. Build up to a fight that probably never happens.

[j4remi]

We got a big UFC coming up. UFC 316 features a rematch of Sean O'Malley and Merab Dvalishvili; a title fight between Juliana Pena and Kayla Harrison; and a pair of pretty fun striker vs striker match-ups.

The main events
Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley 2:

Spoiler:

People remember the first fight between O'Malley and Merab for the showboating and dominant grappling of Merab. But it kinda gets swept away that Suga won 2 rounds including the fifth, and his body work actually showed some signs of working. Since then, O'Malley has done nothing but train and make some lifestyle changes (no more smoking) while Merab wore down Umar Nurmagomedov to win another 3-2 decision.

The rematch is tough to gauge for me. O'Malley had a notable injury, but his grappling has always been shaky against elites. Merab, meanwhile, has out-cardio'ed his opponents consistently but only has 1 finish in a long UFC career. I actually think O'Malley's upset chances are better than the odds suggest, but I'm not willing to risk money on that.

Juliana Pena vs Kayla Harrison:

Spoiler:

Here's another one-sided betting fight, where I agree with the favorite to win but not the odds. Kayla Harrison is a weight-bully in my book. She didn't look particularly impressive at 145 lbs, losing to Larissa Pacheco. But at 135, she's completely overpowered Holly Holm and Ketlen Viera. Pena has only really lost to striking focused opposition, but it's less that she's a dominant grappler and more that she outworks everyone.

The thing is, Pena has fought the best of the best while Harrison has had a cupcake schedule. But then again, Pena's been subbed before by weaker grapplers than Harrison (though both times, they were vastly superior strikers). I think if Pena can make Kayla work while dragging out the fight, she might be able to steal it. But that's a long shot.

I won't bet on Suga or Pena...but I'm parlaying the two for 5 bucks because it's not competely out of the question and that bet will win 90 bones. My house money stack isn't too bad after Alice Ardelean paid me out a 2-1 last week

The under card fun
Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer:

Spoiler:

The first fun striker fight. Kelvin Gastelum is a good boxer with bad defense but insane toughness. Joe Pyfer is a enormous with good kicks and crazy power, but Jack Hermansson grappled and gassed the big guy.

Gastelum's 3-6 in his last 9. Pyfer is 4-1 in the UFC, but his loss is against the lone ranked talent he faced. It'd be interesting if Gastelum wrestled, but the size difference should make that tough. I think Pyfer has too much power on the feet and Gastelum's too far past his prime. Prime Kelvin would get my bet, but I'm with Pyfer.

Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix:

Spoiler:

Patchy Mix left his Bellator title for the UFC, and he's fighting Mario Bautista, whom went from hyped to hated over his embarrassingly safe fight against Jose Aldo. Mix is a freakish grappler with no losses in the past five years and wins over Sergio Pettis, Kyoji Horiguchi, and Magomed Magomedov in that time.

I don't think Bautista can dodge enough takedowns to win this fight. That's it, that's the review.

Kevin Holland vs Vicente Luque:

Spoiler:

This fight woulda been REALLY fun three years ago. Vicente Luque is a one-man fight of the night award. Kevin Holland is never boring, and at his best when takedowns aren't a threat. It's two exciting strikers who are equal parts tough and skilled.

But Luque chin ain't what it used to be, and he's lost a step. Kevin Holland is good enough to beat this Luque on most nights, but the typical warning applies. Holland is wildly inconsistent!

What about prelims?

Spoiler:

Joshua Van vs Bruno Silva: Joshua Van is a really fun fighter, and Bruno Silva is hittable but tough. This should be fun, if nothing else, with Van winning.

Andreas Gustaffson vs Khaos Williams: Khaos is tough, hits crazy hard, and beats the mid-tier guys. Gustaffson is new to the UFC, but also tough and hits crazy hard. The big note here is that Gus made weight last week, but his opponent pulled out last-minute. So he's doing a second weight cut in a week, which is scary for a debuting UFC fighter against a heavy hitter.

Ariana Lipski vs Wang Cong: Wang Cong is a very hyped striker, who got caught sleeping on an opponent which slowed down her rise. I honestly don't think Lipski is very good, but she has some subs, so maybe she could surprise me. Watch for Cong though...

[Ghetto Gospel]

patchys striking is embarassing

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Pyfer wasn't very impressive.

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Lets go Merab!

[j4remi]

Well, that card wasn't bad.

Merab vs Sean wasn't too surprising. I love good body work, but "good" is the key word. Sean was trying for power to the body without great set ups, and it kept his hands low for Merab to score standing. Then Merab got inside and did what he does. The front choke was nice.

Kayla bullied Pena like anyone else. The fight would have been interesting if it ran long, but not because of skill. Harrison looked horrendous during her weight cut and I'm not sure how long her body will hold up making such a drastic cut. To put it in perspective, on Thursday, Kayla weighed more than any of the male 135'ers competing on the same card. Cutting that much in such a short time takes a toll.

Patchy Mix looked like he came from the Ronda Rousey school of head movement. I'll give him a one-time "octagon jitters" pass on this one, because I really found his prior resume impressive. But sometimes these guys don't work out. Will Brooks was a Bellator champ, beat Michael Chandler twice, then flopped in UFC (1-3 record).

Pyfer just feels like a good, not great, fighter.

Holland did his thing, but Luque has been past his prime for a long time.

I missed the prelims but it's cool that Joshua Van won and immediately took another fight. He'll step in for Manel Kape against the number one ranked Flyweight in the division, Brandon Royval. It's a huge opportunity, though I'd guess this is a little early for him.

Next up, Usman vs Buckley on a card that would be PPV-worthy ten years ago. It's got Rose Namajunas, Cody Garbrandt, Edmen Shabzhyan, and Alonzo Menifield on it. Lots of names MMA fans will recognize, but who are past their primes.

[j4remi]

I kinda stan Craig Jones. He coached Volk to battle Islam on the ground. He had JDM beating Belal. Now he's got a chance to really put his stamp on grappling if JDM beats Islam.

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Not only that, but Jones has called out Gordon Ryan for all his weirdness. He called out ADCC for exploiting competitors, then BEAT them with his own event. Speaking of CJI, it's the best BJJ event in the game and offers open contracts (competitors are free to sign and compete with other organizations), and has sped up the format.

I think Craig's stamp is already on the UFC. The UFC saw CJI and started their own BJJ efforts, they're doing a competition show around the new BJJ build, and they're using the Karate Combat mats that Craig Jones used for CJI. So Craig's already put his stamp on the UFC without ever competing in MMA.

[j4remi]

The KO's today have been *chef's kiss*

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