Official MMA discussion thread pt 3 UFC 316: Merab vs O'Malley 2 and Harrison vs Pena

[NoDopeOnSundays]

JDM vs Belal was awesome, feel like Belal got started a little too late and agreed with the scores. Also, just got announced, Ilia vs Do Bronx

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[j4remi]

JDM vs Belal was awesome, feel like Belal got started a little too late and agreed with the scores. Also, just got announced, Ilia vs Do Bronx

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We have a bunch of fight announcements. Ilia vs. Charles is one of the most hyped fights. Islam vs. JDM has some intrigue to it since Islam's moving up. Chimaev vs. DDP finally got a date, too.

The IFW card pretty damned good from top to bottom.

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Ironically, now Ilia and Islam (Ali Abdelaziz more likely) are going back and forth. Build up to a fight that probably never happens.

[j4remi]

We got a big UFC coming up. UFC 316 features a rematch of Sean O'Malley and Merab Dvalishvili; a title fight between Juliana Pena and Kayla Harrison; and a pair of pretty fun striker vs striker match-ups.

The main events
Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley 2:

Spoiler:

People remember the first fight between O'Malley and Merab for the showboating and dominant grappling of Merab. But it kinda gets swept away that Suga won 2 rounds including the fifth, and his body work actually showed some signs of working. Since then, O'Malley has done nothing but train and make some lifestyle changes (no more smoking) while Merab wore down Umar Nurmagomedov to win another 3-2 decision.

The rematch is tough to gauge for me. O'Malley had a notable injury, but his grappling has always been shaky against elites. Merab, meanwhile, has out-cardio'ed his opponents consistently but only has 1 finish in a long UFC career. I actually think O'Malley's upset chances are better than the odds suggest, but I'm not willing to risk money on that.

Juliana Pena vs Kayla Harrison:

Spoiler:

Here's another one-sided betting fight, where I agree with the favorite to win but not the odds. Kayla Harrison is a weight-bully in my book. She didn't look particularly impressive at 145 lbs, losing to Larissa Pacheco. But at 135, she's completely overpowered Holly Holm and Ketlen Viera. Pena has only really lost to striking focused opposition, but it's less that she's a dominant grappler and more that she outworks everyone.

The thing is, Pena has fought the best of the best while Harrison has had a cupcake schedule. But then again, Pena's been subbed before by weaker grapplers than Harrison (though both times, they were vastly superior strikers). I think if Pena can make Kayla work while dragging out the fight, she might be able to steal it. But that's a long shot.

I won't bet on Suga or Pena...but I'm parlaying the two for 5 bucks because it's not competely out of the question and that bet will win 90 bones. My house money stack isn't too bad after Alice Ardelean paid me out a 2-1 last week

The under card fun
Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer:

Spoiler:

The first fun striker fight. Kelvin Gastelum is a good boxer with bad defense but insane toughness. Joe Pyfer is a enormous with good kicks and crazy power, but Jack Hermansson grappled and gassed the big guy.

Gastelum's 3-6 in his last 9. Pyfer is 4-1 in the UFC, but his loss is against the lone ranked talent he faced. It'd be interesting if Gastelum wrestled, but the size difference should make that tough. I think Pyfer has too much power on the feet and Gastelum's too far past his prime. Prime Kelvin would get my bet, but I'm with Pyfer.

Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix:

Spoiler:

Patchy Mix left his Bellator title for the UFC, and he's fighting Mario Bautista, whom went from hyped to hated over his embarrassingly safe fight against Jose Aldo. Mix is a freakish grappler with no losses in the past five years and wins over Sergio Pettis, Kyoji Horiguchi, and Magomed Magomedov in that time.

I don't think Bautista can dodge enough takedowns to win this fight. That's it, that's the review.

Kevin Holland vs Vicente Luque:

Spoiler:

This fight woulda been REALLY fun three years ago. Vicente Luque is a one-man fight of the night award. Kevin Holland is never boring, and at his best when takedowns aren't a threat. It's two exciting strikers who are equal parts tough and skilled.

But Luque chin ain't what it used to be, and he's lost a step. Kevin Holland is good enough to beat this Luque on most nights, but the typical warning applies. Holland is wildly inconsistent!

What about prelims?

Spoiler:

Joshua Van vs Bruno Silva: Joshua Van is a really fun fighter, and Bruno Silva is hittable but tough. This should be fun, if nothing else, with Van winning.

Andreas Gustaffson vs Khaos Williams: Khaos is tough, hits crazy hard, and beats the mid-tier guys. Gustaffson is new to the UFC, but also tough and hits crazy hard. The big note here is that Gus made weight last week, but his opponent pulled out last-minute. So he's doing a second weight cut in a week, which is scary for a debuting UFC fighter against a heavy hitter.

Ariana Lipski vs Wang Cong: Wang Cong is a very hyped striker, who got caught sleeping on an opponent which slowed down her rise. I honestly don't think Lipski is very good, but she has some subs, so maybe she could surprise me. Watch for Cong though...

[Ghetto Gospel]

patchys striking is embarassing

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Pyfer wasn't very impressive.

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Lets go Merab!

[j4remi]

Well, that card wasn't bad.

Merab vs Sean wasn't too surprising. I love good body work, but "good" is the key word. Sean was trying for power to the body without great set ups, and it kept his hands low for Merab to score standing. Then Merab got inside and did what he does. The front choke was nice.

Kayla bullied Pena like anyone else. The fight would have been interesting if it ran long, but not because of skill. Harrison looked horrendous during her weight cut and I'm not sure how long her body will hold up making such a drastic cut. To put it in perspective, on Thursday, Kayla weighed more than any of the male 135'ers competing on the same card. Cutting that much in such a short time takes a toll.

Patchy Mix looked like he came from the Ronda Rousey school of head movement. I'll give him a one-time "octagon jitters" pass on this one, because I really found his prior resume impressive. But sometimes these guys don't work out. Will Brooks was a Bellator champ, beat Michael Chandler twice, then flopped in UFC (1-3 record).

Pyfer just feels like a good, not great, fighter.

Holland did his thing, but Luque has been past his prime for a long time.

I missed the prelims but it's cool that Joshua Van won and immediately took another fight. He'll step in for Manel Kape against the number one ranked Flyweight in the division, Brandon Royval. It's a huge opportunity, though I'd guess this is a little early for him.

Next up, Usman vs Buckley on a card that would be PPV-worthy ten years ago. It's got Rose Namajunas, Cody Garbrandt, Edmen Shabzhyan, and Alonzo Menifield on it. Lots of names MMA fans will recognize, but who are past their primes.

[j4remi]

I kinda stan Craig Jones. He coached Volk to battle Islam on the ground. He had JDM beating Belal. Now he's got a chance to really put his stamp on grappling if JDM beats Islam.

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Not only that, but Jones has called out Gordon Ryan for all his weirdness. He called out ADCC for exploiting competitors, then BEAT them with his own event. Speaking of CJI, it's the best BJJ event in the game and offers open contracts (competitors are free to sign and compete with other organizations), and has sped up the format.

I think Craig's stamp is already on the UFC. The UFC saw CJI and started their own BJJ efforts, they're doing a competition show around the new BJJ build, and they're using the Karate Combat mats that Craig Jones used for CJI. So Craig's already put his stamp on the UFC without ever competing in MMA.

[j4remi]

The KO's today have been *chef's kiss*

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[Guano]

Cards feel extremely boring lately.

The ufc has worked so hard at making the brand bigger than the fighters and now we are at a place it just feels stale.

Doesn't mean we dont have a great talented fighters. I just haven't been excited about any fights lately and dont feel like there are huge stars like in years past. Divisions aren't stacked and exciting. They nuked the HW division with the Jones bullcht.

Doesn't help the apex cards are horrible. Idk maybe the ufc is just in a transition. Idk I just cant think of any fights im super excited to watch coming up. Which is wild cause I used to really love the ufc.

[j4remi]

Cards feel extremely boring lately.

The ufc has worked so hard at making the brand bigger than the fighters and now we are at a place it just feels stale.

Doesn't mean we dont have a great talented fighters. I just haven't been excited about any fights lately and dont feel like there are huge stars like in years past. Divisions aren't stacked and exciting. They nuked the HW division with the Jones bullcht.

Doesn't help the apex cards are horrible. Idk maybe the ufc is just in a transition. Idk I just cant think of any fights im super excited to watch coming up. Which is wild cause I used to really love the ufc.

I blame their new media deals. It's just impossible to maintain quality cards when you throw three events a month. To keep that schedule, they're constantly having to shuffle fighters around due to injuries; they load APEX cards with prospects that barely fit the UFC standard until the main card (sometimes even including main card fights); and if they travel to a region like Louisiana, they'll add local prospects that also don't fit UFC standards but who will help fill some extra seats with family and friends.

Most PPVs are an injury or two away from being bad cards, and the fighters at the upper-echelons don't have incentives to take a risky short-notice fight to save the cards. Half the non-numbered cards are bad before any injuries. Then it all gets exacerbated by champs and high-ranked fighters picking and choosing their opponents to protect a belt or ranking.

There's also no incentive structure for finishing fights. You can chase PotN, but only two guys get that. Your win bonus is guaranteed. That means, safe fights and lots of decisions. 2 out of 12 fights had finishes this weekend. There are 4 ranked fighters on the entire card, and only two fought each other. The second-highest ranked fighter on the card fought against somebody making his UFC debut.

They're filling a card quota, first and foremost. Putting together quality cards has fallen to the wayside. Meanwhile, PFL got absolutely trashed for trying to pay their non-ranked fighters more at the expense of their stars; ONE FC gets trashed for focusing money into developing specialized divisions (a concept the UFC is stealing with their BJJ branch); and quality leagues like M-1 Global and Rizin get absolutely ZERO attention from major MMA journalists...MMA is in a sorry state right now.

[Guano]

Cards feel extremely boring lately.

The ufc has worked so hard at making the brand bigger than the fighters and now we are at a place it just feels stale.

Doesn't mean we dont have a great talented fighters. I just haven't been excited about any fights lately and dont feel like there are huge stars like in years past. Divisions aren't stacked and exciting. They nuked the HW division with the Jones bullcht.

Doesn't help the apex cards are horrible. Idk maybe the ufc is just in a transition. Idk I just cant think of any fights im super excited to watch coming up. Which is wild cause I used to really love the ufc.

I blame their new media deals. It's just impossible to maintain quality cards when you throw three events a month. To keep that schedule, they're constantly having to shuffle fighters around due to injuries; they load APEX cards with prospects that barely fit the UFC standard until the main card (sometimes even including main card fights); and if they travel to a region like Louisiana, they'll add local prospects that also don't fit UFC standards but who will help fill some extra seats with family and friends.

Most PPVs are an injury or two away from being bad cards, and the fighters at the upper-echelons don't have incentives to take a risky short-notice fight to save the cards. Half the non-numbered cards are bad before any injuries. Then it all gets exacerbated by champs and high-ranked fighters picking and choosing their opponents to protect a belt or ranking.

There's also no incentive structure for finishing fights. You can chase PotN, but only two guys get that. Your win bonus is guaranteed. That means, safe fights and lots of decisions. 2 out of 12 fights had finishes this weekend. There are 4 ranked fighters on the entire card, and only two fought each other. The second-highest ranked fighter on the card fought against somebody making his UFC debut.

They're filling a card quota, first and foremost. Putting together quality cards has fallen to the wayside. Meanwhile, PFL got absolutely trashed for trying to pay their non-ranked fighters more at the expense of their stars; ONE FC gets trashed for focusing money into developing specialized divisions (a concept the UFC is stealing with their BJJ branch); and quality leagues like M-1 Global and Rizin get absolutely ZERO attention from major MMA journalists...MMA is in a sorry state right now.

Interesting, so saturation is killing the game we love. Which makes some sense. I use to love the free cards. My memory is sht and is vv unreliable, so this is possibly a lie, but as I recall they use to be a lot mkre entertaining. Filled with journeyman and fresh blood who would put on some of the most entertaining scraps of the year. Now, the apex fights are almost unwatchable.

I always thought more fights would be better cause I really enjoy mma, but my interest is at an all time low.

Small but that I cant stand lately too is the infiltration of politics. Its very off putting. But only something that adds to it being off. Its not a core issue.

I also think Dana is a horrible promoter and doesnt build up the fighters well at all. They've spent so much time building up the ufc and not gassing up fighters thst it has hurt the game.

Idk its just a mess and I miss the excitement.

[Ghetto Gospel]

Cards feel extremely boring lately.

The ufc has worked so hard at making the brand bigger than the fighters and now we are at a place it just feels stale.

Doesn't mean we dont have a great talented fighters. I just haven't been excited about any fights lately and dont feel like there are huge stars like in years past. Divisions aren't stacked and exciting. They nuked the HW division with the Jones bullcht.

Doesn't help the apex cards are horrible. Idk maybe the ufc is just in a transition. Idk I just cant think of any fights im super excited to watch coming up. Which is wild cause I used to really love the ufc.

on the bright side, we have topuria vs oliveira this weekend

[Ghetto Gospel]

Most PPVs are an injury or two away from being bad cards, and the fighters at the upper-echelons don't have incentives to take a risky short-notice fight to save the cards. Half the non-numbered cards are bad before any injuries. Then it all gets exacerbated by champs and high-ranked fighters picking and choosing their opponents to protect a belt or ranking.

back then the fighters were making no money and barely scraping by so they had to fight whoever the ufc told them to fight to collect that check. nowadays, they're getting paid "enough" and can be a lot more judicious about what they want to do. just an unfortunate side effect of the business, it was always going to go the way of boxing and probably will continue to even further

[Guano]

Cards feel extremely boring lately.

The ufc has worked so hard at making the brand bigger than the fighters and now we are at a place it just feels stale.

Doesn't mean we dont have a great talented fighters. I just haven't been excited about any fights lately and dont feel like there are huge stars like in years past. Divisions aren't stacked and exciting. They nuked the HW division with the Jones bullcht.

Doesn't help the apex cards are horrible. Idk maybe the ufc is just in a transition. Idk I just cant think of any fights im super excited to watch coming up. Which is wild cause I used to really love the ufc.

on the bright side, we have topuria vs oliveira this weekend

You know what, youre gd right. That fight is gonna be ELECTRIC.

I just cant go against topuria cause those hands are dynamite. But gping up is hard and he has been rocked by a no-name at higher weight class. That said oliveira is hittable so he is in danger.

Gun to head im picking Topura but it wouldn't surprise me at all if oliveira wrecks him.

[Ghetto Gospel]

Cards feel extremely boring lately.

The ufc has worked so hard at making the brand bigger than the fighters and now we are at a place it just feels stale.

Doesn't mean we dont have a great talented fighters. I just haven't been excited about any fights lately and dont feel like there are huge stars like in years past. Divisions aren't stacked and exciting. They nuked the HW division with the Jones bullcht.

Doesn't help the apex cards are horrible. Idk maybe the ufc is just in a transition. Idk I just cant think of any fights im super excited to watch coming up. Which is wild cause I used to really love the ufc.

on the bright side, we have topuria vs oliveira this weekend

You know what, youre gd right. That fight is gonna be ELECTRIC.

I just cant go against topuria cause those hands are dynamite. But gping up is hard and he has been rocked by a no-name at higher weight class. That said oliveira is hittable so he is in danger.

Gun to head im picking Topura but it wouldn't surprise me at all if oliveira wrecks him.

i was looking at the fight odds the other day and it's crazy to me that topuria is like a -450 favorite. in my mind i was expecting somewhere around a -150 to -200 in favor of topuria.

might just end up splashing a little on the oliveman for this fight, but i wouldn't be surprised if topuria wins. i was looking at some of his training footage lately and he looks pretty deadly

[Guano]

on the bright side, we have topuria vs oliveira this weekend

You know what, youre gd right. That fight is gonna be ELECTRIC.

I just cant go against topuria cause those hands are dynamite. But gping up is hard and he has been rocked by a no-name at higher weight class. That said oliveira is hittable so he is in danger.

Gun to head im picking Topura but it wouldn't surprise me at all if oliveira wrecks him.

i was looking at the fight odds the other day and it's crazy to me that topuria is like a -450 favorite. in my mind i was expecting somewhere around a -150 to -200 in favor of topuria.

might just end up splashing a little on the oliveman for this fight, but i wouldn't be surprised if topuria wins. i was looking at some of his training footage lately and he looks pretty deadly

Im sure it recency bias but I cant think of a more impressive year than KO'ing Volk and Max. He is an absolute killer.

[Ghetto Gospel]

nvm, ilias knocking him out lmao

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[Guano]

nvm, ilias knocking him out lmao

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Thats an awesome face off. Excited for this fight.

[Ghetto Gospel]

nvm, ilias knocking him out lmao

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Thats an awesome face off. Excited for this fight.

you seeing this ****? wtf, celebrating his win before he even fights is crazy

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