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2025 NBA Draft (2)

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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1241 » by LeonJordanJr24 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 5:44 am

76ciology wrote:
Sixersftw wrote:I think it comes down to if you trust VJ's handle and rim finishing to improve vs Ace's decision making. I'm at the point where I don't trust either player to get there but I'm completely wrapped around the axle from watching prospects. Glad I ain't making the choice.

Tre was my initial pick but, man, the defense is bad bad.


In your comparison between VJ’s handle and finishing versus Ace’s decision-making, I’m taking VJ.

VJ already has a solid foundation in his handle and finishing. On the other hand, Ace’s decision making is downright poor right now. It’s like VJ is starting halfway down the track, while Ace is still at the starting line.

Ace’s shot creation mostly comes from the midrange, and even then, it’s usually just a couple of simple dribbles before pulling up over defenders. VJ, meanwhile, shows much more variety, he has solid volume in pick-and-roll actions, unassisted threes, and midrange attempts. As a shot creator, VJ is clearly ahead, both has almost the same number in volume of unassisted shots in halfcourt, VJ is just more diverse in shot diet and has diverse set of shot creation talent.

In terms of halfcourt rim frequency, VJ is getting to the rim on 30% of his possessions, while Ace is only at about 16%, and he’s finishing poorly when he gets there.

I’m higher on Ace than I used to be, I think he can become a solid 3&D player. But VJ has the tools to be more than that. He processes the game better, can handle the ball, shoot, pass, and score from the midrange. His profile reminds me of Derrick White. Both are around the same size (6’4” without shoes, 8’5.5” standing reach).

I also find it a red-flag on Ace’s performance in his last 10 games. A Ben Simmons’ personality?

And lastly, between the two, Edgecombe’s numbers is clearly nearer to past top 3 picks.



Two totally different positions that Ace and VJ play....
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1242 » by the_process » Sun Jun 8, 2025 5:48 am

Mik317 wrote:is it fluke shooting if you do it like 5 times a series lol


Exactly. Boston spent two years spamming threes and winning a million games including a ring. They weren’t fraudulent.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1243 » by 76ciology » Sun Jun 8, 2025 5:53 am

the_process wrote:
Mik317 wrote:is it fluke shooting if you do it like 5 times a series lol


Exactly. Boston spent two years spamming threes and winning a million games including a ring. They weren’t fraudulent.


If Thunder lose the finals then their defense is a fraud?

Daryl Morey, who obviously knows more than both of us, uses championship odds to gauge whether a team’s really a contender. So what were the Pacers’ title odds heading into the offseason? They were at +5000, with the 15th best odds to win it. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2025_preseason_odds.html

Even with a 1-0 lead, Thunders is still the favorites to win it with -330 odds vs Pacers at +265. It was -800 for the Thunders before the series started.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1244 » by Mik317 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 5:58 am

if they lose it will be moreso due to their offense more than likely. The Pacers have proven to not give a **** how far back they are and will keep doing their thing for better or for worse...which can lead to big leads being erased quickly...idk if OKC's offense can keep up in that scenario. Their defense tends to turn teams over for easy buckets...Pacers don't care lol.

I do think tho its more of a Sixers in 01 thing and this is OKC in 5 more than likely lol
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1245 » by Iverson Armband » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:04 am

Went back and looked at Tre Johnson’s debut as a freshman. This kid drops 29 and moves like a man amongst boys from day one. There’s no way you can watch this and not come away impressed; there’s a little bit there for everybody. Even mixes in a nice drive to the basket, playmaking and a defensive play for the haters :lol:

always a jump shot away.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1246 » by 76ciology » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:19 am

Im also not a big fan of VJ Edgecombe at #3 but having these 4 at 1-4 positions would be TO nightmare for the opponent

Maxey (1.8 steals per game; 9th league)
Edgecombe (3.8 stl%; elite)
Paul George (3.9 deflections; 6th league)
Kelly Oubre (4.2 deflections; 3rd league)
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1247 » by LeonJordanJr24 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 7:19 am

Ace is the best upside and fit for this team..lets not screw this up..
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1248 » by Kolkmania » Sun Jun 8, 2025 11:39 am

76ciology wrote:I’d say 80–90% of #3 picks fit a secondary to tertiary archetype, players like VJ Edgecombe. These are the high-level complementary pieces on championship teams. They typically average 15–20 PPG, provide strong defense, space the floor, generate extra possessions, and can score efficiently when playing off a primary star. They’re capable of being a second or third option, can pass to open teammates, and contribute within the flow of an offense rather than driving it. Another option in the running here is Kon Kneuppel.

Then there’s the much rarer primary archetype, players who can be the engine of your offense. These are usually top-2 picks, but occasionally they fall to #3 because of some baggage like the Lamelo’s personality or Embiid’s injury. These guys average near 30 PPG scorers who can give you 5–7 assists per game, rebound at a solid rate (5+ per game), shoot near 60TS%, and be an above average defender. In short, you can build your offense around them.

For primary archetype:

Ace Bailey
I don’t see him as a primary initiator. He lacks the playmaking (5-7 assists benchmark) to consistently run an offense or run heavy PnR like elite wings such as KD, Tatum, or Kawhi. He feels more like a tertiary option, a good C&S player and some shooting over defenders at mid range, but not someone you give the ball to and let create at will.

Tre Johnson
He has a clearer path to being a primary, but there are gaps. He’ll need to become a better playmaker, rebounder and defender. Offensively, he has the potential to score 25–30 efficiently and hit the 5-assist mark. But if you’re drafting him as a primary, you’re betting that his length and athleticism will translate into at least average defense and solid rebounding.

Jeremiah Fears
He’s undersized and lacks efficiency. That combo makes it hard to project him as anything more than a spark plug guard unless he makes a serious leap.


It a tough pill to swallow but both archetypes, primary and secondary/tertiary, can justify a top-3 pick. You don’t pass on a Chet Holmgren just because he might only average 15 PPG, or a Jalen Williams because he’s a 20 PPG secondary guy.

If you’re swinging for a primary, then the bar needs to be high. If it’s Tre Johnson, then he has to take a leap in his rebounding and defense, and you’re betting on his physical tools and athleticism giving him the upside to do that.


I agree with your way of thinking, but I think you're underestimating the bar for a secondary or tertiary playmaker for a championship team. Not a terrific shooter, uncomfortable off the dribble, meh finishing and his usage rate and assist rate were quite low for a guard.
I value the competitiveness and athleticism, but I wouldn't bet on him to reach Jalen Williams type of offensive impact. A Caruso-esque role is far more likely imo.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1249 » by zaz102 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 11:50 am

I really like Tre, Ace, VJ, and to a lesser extent Kon. I think I'm on the verge of being a Tre guy.

To me, he has the best tools right now that I think are needed to become a superstar- shooting, playmaking, self creation, and ball handling.

His biggest weaknesses to me are defense, rebounding, and finishing. Although, these skills are important, I rank them lower than thr other skills I mentioned.

He has great length and decent athleticism. Also, according to the PHLY, nobody we are looking at with #3 has a bad attitude includong Tre. Due to these reasons, I think there's a high chance he can end up being fine on defense.

Finishing is what I worry about the most. We've seen Maxey get better at it, so I know it's possible, but still a question marks.

I'm still trying to think about how much to take position into account. If I look at Ace as a PF and VJ as an undersized SF, then maybe the superstar (mostly guard) skills don't matter as much since they won't need the ball in their hands as much and should be weighted accordingly.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1250 » by Stanford » Sun Jun 8, 2025 12:21 pm

I'm definitely a Tre guy at this point. I think he has the most realistic path to being a star among the remaining guys.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1251 » by JustBuzzin » Sun Jun 8, 2025 12:25 pm

Hornets fan here

Who do you guys think you will select?

I'm pretty much down to Ace or Tre. I don't want VJ I just don't see the hype with him.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1252 » by OleSchool » Sun Jun 8, 2025 12:35 pm

JustBuzzin wrote:Hornets fan here

Who do you guys think you will select?

I'm pretty much down to Ace or Tre. I don't want VJ I just don't see the hype with him.


Ace, tre, or VJ :D

Same as you guys
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1253 » by Iverson Armband » Sun Jun 8, 2025 12:53 pm

JustBuzzin wrote:Hornets fan here

Who do you guys think you will select?

I'm pretty much down to Ace or Tre. I don't want VJ I just don't see the hype with him.

Which one do you hope falls to you guys?
always a jump shot away.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1254 » by mjkvol » Sun Jun 8, 2025 12:56 pm

76ciology wrote:
the_process wrote:
Mik317 wrote:is it fluke shooting if you do it like 5 times a series lol


Exactly. Boston spent two years spamming threes and winning a million games including a ring. They weren’t fraudulent.


If Thunder lose the finals then their defense is a fraud?

Daryl Morey, who obviously knows more than both of us, uses championship odds to gauge whether a team’s really a contender. So what were the Pacers’ title odds heading into the offseason? They were at +5000, with the 15th best odds to win it. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2025_preseason_odds.html

Even with a 1-0 lead, Thunders is still the favorites to win it with -330 odds vs Pacers at +265. It was -800 for the Thunders before the series started.


Win or lose, OKC is going to be looking for shooters this summer. They desperately need 1-2 guys who can come off the bench and provide microwave type scoring in the half court when they aren't able to generate their usual amount of transition scoring.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1255 » by youngcrev » Sun Jun 8, 2025 1:03 pm

JustBuzzin wrote:Hornets fan here

Who do you guys think you will select?

I'm pretty much down to Ace or Tre. I don't want VJ I just don't see the hype with him.


I think someone trades up for Ace. Jazz or Pelicans.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1256 » by JustBuzzin » Sun Jun 8, 2025 1:13 pm

Iverson Armband wrote:
JustBuzzin wrote:Hornets fan here

Who do you guys think you will select?

I'm pretty much down to Ace or Tre. I don't want VJ I just don't see the hype with him.

Which one do you hope falls to you guys?

Ace/Tre in that order.

Not really considering anyone else
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1257 » by the_process » Sun Jun 8, 2025 2:03 pm

JustBuzzin wrote:
Iverson Armband wrote:
JustBuzzin wrote:Hornets fan here

Who do you guys think you will select?

I'm pretty much down to Ace or Tre. I don't want VJ I just don't see the hype with him.

Which one do you hope falls to you guys?


Ace/Tre in that order.

Not really considering anyone else


The buzz is you guys are pretty locked in on Edgecombe, though.

We'll see how it goes.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1258 » by Arsenal » Sun Jun 8, 2025 2:07 pm

Negrodamus wrote:
Arsenal wrote:
Black Mage wrote:
B/c KJ has a 23% turnover rate and Queen is 15%.


Queen 0.79 A/TO
KJ 1.27 A/TO

Obviously Queen is much worse.


Why are assists being taken into account here on a purely TO conversation?

That’s like comparing Jamal Murray, a non-PG pure scoring guard at Kentucky with a sub 1.0 AST/TO, to Kris Dunn, a heavily on ball PG with a > 1.0 AST/TO but had obvious major turnover issues at Providence.


Turnovers by themselves mean nothing when you're comparing who can be a primary offensive hub. You have to look at them in conjunction with assists to determine who is efficiently creating offense for their team.

And that's where your beloved Derik Queen falls short with an ATROCIOUS 0.79 Assist to Turnover ratio. The guy can't create offense without turning it over way too much.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1259 » by Arsenal » Sun Jun 8, 2025 2:08 pm

the_process wrote:
JustBuzzin wrote:
Iverson Armband wrote:Which one do you hope falls to you guys?


Ace/Tre in that order.

Not really considering anyone else


The buzz is you guys are pretty locked in on Edgecombe, though.

We'll see how it goes.


It could just be cope considering they expect Ace to be gone at #3.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft (2) 

Post#1260 » by the_process » Sun Jun 8, 2025 2:09 pm

76ciology wrote:
the_process wrote:
Mik317 wrote:is it fluke shooting if you do it like 5 times a series lol


Exactly. Boston spent two years spamming threes and winning a million games including a ring. They weren’t fraudulent.


If Thunder lose the finals then their defense is a fraud?

Daryl Morey, who obviously knows more than both of us, uses championship odds to gauge whether a team’s really a contender. So what were the Pacers’ title odds heading into the offseason? They were at +5000, with the 15th best odds to win it. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2025_preseason_odds.html

Even with a 1-0 lead, Thunders is still the favorites to win it with -330 odds vs Pacers at +265. It was -800 for the Thunders before the series started.


Bad argument. Morey's championship odds formula is outdated. He overvalues stars and doesn't even factor in the possibility of a player blossoming into a star.

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