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Draft Thread Part 2

Moderators: bwgood77, lilfishi22, Qwigglez

If we keep the 4th pick, who do you want to take?

Bender
57
51%
Brown
15
14%
Chriss
8
7%
Dunn
6
5%
Ellenson
4
4%
Hield
11
10%
Murray
10
9%
 
Total votes: 111

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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1601 » by AtheJ415 » Sat May 28, 2016 6:40 pm

NavLDO wrote:
saintEscaton wrote:
Waylay13 wrote:
The only way in which Valentine can play the 1 or 2 is if he doesnt guard anyone. While he may have skills to cover for being short and nonathletic at small forward everywhere else he is going to be in major trouble.


How are they even comparable Jah is already an elite high volume scorer, he recorded the 6th highest TS% ever on a usage rate above 25%. Valentine is a best a homeless man's swingman version of Draymond Green, Evan Turner who can shoot a lick. Maybe he can play the small ball 4 in spurts but he's not gunna run the point the next level and most of his scoring came assisted. Or if he reworks himself into a spot up SG maybe a Danny Green with better playmaking skills but not as lockdown of a perimeter defender but his length isn't enough to compensate. Even entertaining Valentine with our first pick is lunacy IMO


I've been called worse, so if I'm a 'lunatic', so be it. But just like you can claim a 'one-off' stat on Okafor, I can do the same with Valentine--the 1st player to have a "19-7-7" season since they started keeping these stats since 1984--see, we an all produce something special about just about an of the top prospects. Then there's "his 45.8 assist percentage, the second best in the country," which is another impressive stat. "His 21.2 percent defensive rebounding rate ranked third in the nation among any guard..." is another. And since you like TS% how about Valentine's 61.5% (vs Okafor's 64%) and Valentine "lives farther from the rim". And question of his athleticism are greatly exaggerated. I'll say it again, if he's so poor athletically, how did he "wipe the floor" with the other prospects in the lane agility drill?

Yes, I know he lacks a burst, and his defense is atrocious, but to me, his positives outweigh his negatives, and in a weak draft, if we haven't traded the pick, and Bender is gone, I'd rather they go with a surefire 6th-man type with great versatility, then a PG who can't shoot or a Shooting Guard who's only just that, when we have that already, and who isn't any better than Valentine in any area. Dunn is, to use your vernacular, "at best, a homeless man's" version of Bledsoe. I'll take the guy that's the 'homeless' version of Draymond Green over Bledsoe. And while I was on the Brown 'hype-train' for awhile, but the latest reports on him are concerning. Leaving, who, exactly, would be best for us at 4th overall if Bender is indeed gone. Which is why I'd be ok with Valentine at 4.

But IRT Valentine, here are some quotes from some "talking heads" that don't know much more than us, (except the 1st one--I think that guy knows a thing or two about basketball), but still:

"He's like myself and Draymond [Green] because he can just do everything," Magic Johnson said. "He can rebound, score, assist and he gets so much joy out of setting his teammates up. His basketball IQ was already off the charts when he came to Michigan State, but the way he's shooting the basketball right now is amazing."


But the dude simply knows how to play. He is incredibly versatile as a playmaker, and has a great jumper with NBA range. A smart team will land him and reap the rewards later in the draft that you’d expect.


Valentine is a tough guy to place right now. Based on his production this season, he should probably be in the top seven or so players.


What should translate is his shooting ability. Valentine can shoot from deep, pulling up or coming off screens. He also has good size to be a decent rebounder.


...which gives us flashbacks to Draymond Green’s days with Tom Izzo. Green and Valentine aren’t the same player at all, but I think Valentine has all of the tools to be effective in the NBA. He can shoot, which is obviously a hot commodity in today’s NBA.


His averages across the board – 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds and 7.8 assists – were superb, but the most telling stat could be his 45.8 assist percentage, the second best in the country.


In a league that demands more playmakers spread across the offense, Valentine's court-awareness and proven success in a motion offense cannot be undersold. Valentine wasn't even supposed to be the primary ball-handler for the Spartans this year; he took over due to injury, and morphed into one of the best floor leaders in the country.


Regardless, it’s his maturity, versatility and his innate ability to oversee a game...


A combination guard with a handle and high-level shooting accuracy...


His 21.2 percent defensive rebounding rate ranked third in the nation among any guard...


Lastly, his size will allow him to defend most shooting guards and small forwards at the next level, given his 6'5.75" height in shoes and 6'10.75" wingspan.


Valentine can struggle to create his own offense. While he may never be a great playmaker for himself, he's smart enough to avoid putting himself in one on one situations and will instead target other mismatches on the floor.


14.8% turnover rate, which equated to a near 3/1 assist-to-turnover ratio.


NEGATIVES (with questions/comments in parenthesis):

Valentine lost focus on both ends at times. He was mainly a culprit of ball watching when on defense and losing track of his man.
(Isn't that something than can be coached up?? Or is this 'what you see is what you get??)

Valentine's shuttle run, 3/4 court sprint, standing vertical jump, and max vertical leap all placed a poor light on his athletic profile.
(I find it comical that the author just 'glosses over' his Lane Agility Drill. Yes, he tested below-average, but hardly 'abysmal')


But at the end of the day, I find it difficult to comprehend how selecting this player at 4th overall is no sheer lunacy, but selecting Valentine would be:

Still, watch Dunn play and the results are wildly inconsistent. At times, he'll make shots that fall effortlessly through the hoop; at other times, he'll miss, wildly, to the left or right, shooting airballs that make you wonder how much progress he's actually made on his shot. In terms of form, there's still quite a bit of extra motion in his shot, and his balance is questionable at times as well, with the plant, angle of jump, and landing seemingly changing from shot to shot, even when not under duress
.

over...

One skill which will translate to the league is his shooting. Valentine isn’t as good of a shooter as Buddy Hield, but he’s even better as an off-ball operator. He loves getting his defenders caught on screens and leaping out to receive an open look. He has a lighting quick release and he shoots on the way up, meaning he’s going to be a solid offensive spacer regardless of whether he ever dribbles the ball
.

...and...

"Running off screens, stop-and-pops, catch-and-shoots, step-backs—Valentine is a versatile shot-maker with a quick release and the ability to convert contested looks."


Adam Morrison was one of the greatest college scorers of all time. So was Doug McDermott. I can find 1sts for them too. Productivity in college is not the best way to evaluate these guys imo.

I like Valentine, but not over a lot of others in this draft. I think 4 is way too high for him.
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1602 » by TeamTragic » Sat May 28, 2016 6:48 pm

Damkac wrote:
Saberestar wrote:
T.J. Warren watched today's Suns draft workout, looking swole in the upper body after undergoing surgery in February for a foot fracture.


https://mobile.twitter.com/paulcoro/status/736272776269430785

He must have awesome work ethic. Improving his 3pt shoot, transforming his body (he already lost much fat in the past). Hope he may also improve his D. Trading this guy would be the dumbest think that Suns could do.


Definitely agree. Warren should NOT be in trade talks unless we are getting back an elite-level player.

carey wrote:
Cactus Jack wrote:
Zelaznyrules wrote: Chriss screams boom or bust to me. I don't see Amare, I don't see Ed Davis and I don't see "solid" player. He's a star 5 years from now or he's learning Chinese.

Chinese it is.


What worries me about Chriss is this tidbit from Givony's write-up:

Chriss was one of the most foul prone players in college basketball, being disqualified from 15 of his 34 games, and committing four fouls in ten others. Many of his fouls seemed highly unnecessary, particularly early in the season, and appeared to be almost entirely due to a lack of focus.


You can't have a guy that awful on defense be your starting PF unless he's so gifted offensively he is Amare. I didn't see many Washington games, but from his highlights he does not look like Amare. He looks like Jeff Green.


Len had the same issue. He would commit fouls and would have to be subbed out. Totally kills your rhythm. Hopefully McD sees something that we do not right?
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1603 » by NavLDO » Sat May 28, 2016 6:48 pm

JMac1 wrote:
Fo-Real wrote:
JMac1 wrote:

I never seen this one before.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jj_17K02PkY[/youtube]



The things that intrigue me about Brown are his size and athleticism (bron like height and weight). He can shoot and will only get better, and slightly different from just athleticism, he is on skates while on the attack offensively. By that I mean he changes direction without having to slow or even gather his self, it reminds me of D Wade where even when a defender has him tracked or stopped he either still beats him to the angle or goes the other way leaving the defender looking inept. In that video a lot of those kids played his drives to the bucket correctly, but his superior wheels and athletic ability ruled their effort moot. At only 18 and already an NBA body the kid has a chance to be a beast.... or he could bust like many before him but he has every tool at his disposal unlike many before him. His skates will be more useful in a league where you can't really play zone and can no longer grab and impead the ball handler. Not saying he is the next big thing, but HIS SKATE IS ELITE, on the level of the best in the NBA.


:lol: Plus 10000000000000000 I was going to mention this, but I felt I was monopolizing the draft board (on summer vacation :D ). He changes directions on a dime, keeps his feet in an athletic stance no matter how fast he is going when he changes directions, that means he has good balance, a strong core and base. Also, my man can contort like a cat in small spaces. Shifty as hell.

Good eyes!


I hope you all are right, since Brown will likely be very high on our board, and if Bender is gone, and we don't pull the trigger on a trade for Okafor, I be 'ok' with Brown, but some aspects of his profile concern me. But he may likely be the BPA when we pick.
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1604 » by Fo-Real » Sat May 28, 2016 6:59 pm

Like a good tail back, he can get by you in a phone booth without getting tackled. (To you young kats, before there were cell phones, there were these thing called pay phones. Some of these PAY PHONES were in these things for privacy called PHONE BOOTHS!! Really small, room enough for one) LOL I feel old just talking about it. And of course I'm kidding, I'm sure everyone knew this..... right.. :o
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1605 » by bwgood77 » Sat May 28, 2016 7:00 pm

Reading back over some Pelton NBA projections based on his model...there were two big discrepancies as he compared his WARP rankings and stats to Chad Ford's big board.

Ranking Top 30 draft prospects by stats and scouting

take a first look at my statistical projections for college players.

I've ranked the top 30 NCAA prospects based on my "consensus" projections, which combine stats and scouting. This approach leads to both some surprising results and a good prediction for how well each prospect will perform in the NBA.

To be more specific, I use both my wins above replacement player (WARP) statistical projections and each player's rank on Chad Ford's Big Board to better predict who will be successful in the NBA....

33. Jaylen Brown

California
Small forward
Big Board: No. 6
Stats: No. 121

Consensus: 0.9 WARP

Because he's been such an inefficient scorer, Brown actually projects for negative WARP in the NBA. He's made 49 percent of his 2-point attempts and a dismal 30 percent beyond the arc, numbers that were even worse before Brown improved to 50 percent and 35 percent, respectively, in conference play. That hasn't stopped Brown from finishing more than 30 percent of Cal's plays. His NBA-caliber size, strength and athleticism translated in terms of drawing fouls but Brown was an average rebounder for an NBA-bound small forward and actually below average in terms of steal rate.

67. Skal Labissiere

Kentucky
Center
Big Board: No. 16
Stats: No. 113

Consensus: 0.4 WARP

No player has a bigger gap between potential and production to date than Labissiere, who entered the season a contender to go in the top three (he was my favorite player at last year's Nike Hoop Summit, not Simmons) yet has averaged just 15.6 minutes per game. Lately, Labissiere has shown more signs of his true talent, including an 18-point, nine-rebound, six-block game against LSU. His shot blocking has been good all year. Still, Labissiere's poor defensive rebounding and terrible 2-point percentage for a college big man (52 percent) give him too a negative WARP projection.


http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14987234/ranking-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-top-prospects-2016-nba-draft-statistical-projections
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1606 » by NavLDO » Sat May 28, 2016 7:02 pm

AtheJ415 wrote:
Spoiler:
NavLDO wrote:
saintEscaton wrote:
How are they even comparable Jah is already an elite high volume scorer, he recorded the 6th highest TS% ever on a usage rate above 25%. Valentine is a best a homeless man's swingman version of Draymond Green, Evan Turner who can shoot a lick. Maybe he can play the small ball 4 in spurts but he's not gunna run the point the next level and most of his scoring came assisted. Or if he reworks himself into a spot up SG maybe a Danny Green with better playmaking skills but not as lockdown of a perimeter defender but his length isn't enough to compensate. Even entertaining Valentine with our first pick is lunacy IMO


I've been called worse, so if I'm a 'lunatic', so be it. But just like you can claim a 'one-off' stat on Okafor, I can do the same with Valentine--the 1st player to have a "19-7-7" season since they started keeping these stats since 1984--see, we an all produce something special about just about an of the top prospects. Then there's "his 45.8 assist percentage, the second best in the country," which is another impressive stat. "His 21.2 percent defensive rebounding rate ranked third in the nation among any guard..." is another. And since you like TS% how about Valentine's 61.5% (vs Okafor's 64%) and Valentine "lives farther from the rim". And question of his athleticism are greatly exaggerated. I'll say it again, if he's so poor athletically, how did he "wipe the floor" with the other prospects in the lane agility drill?

Yes, I know he lacks a burst, and his defense is atrocious, but to me, his positives outweigh his negatives, and in a weak draft, if we haven't traded the pick, and Bender is gone, I'd rather they go with a surefire 6th-man type with great versatility, then a PG who can't shoot or a Shooting Guard who's only just that, when we have that already, and who isn't any better than Valentine in any area. Dunn is, to use your vernacular, "at best, a homeless man's" version of Bledsoe. I'll take the guy that's the 'homeless' version of Draymond Green over Bledsoe. And while I was on the Brown 'hype-train' for awhile, but the latest reports on him are concerning. Leaving, who, exactly, would be best for us at 4th overall if Bender is indeed gone. Which is why I'd be ok with Valentine at 4.

But IRT Valentine, here are some quotes from some "talking heads" that don't know much more than us, (except the 1st one--I think that guy knows a thing or two about basketball), but still:

"He's like myself and Draymond [Green] because he can just do everything," Magic Johnson said. "He can rebound, score, assist and he gets so much joy out of setting his teammates up. His basketball IQ was already off the charts when he came to Michigan State, but the way he's shooting the basketball right now is amazing."


But the dude simply knows how to play. He is incredibly versatile as a playmaker, and has a great jumper with NBA range. A smart team will land him and reap the rewards later in the draft that you’d expect.


Valentine is a tough guy to place right now. Based on his production this season, he should probably be in the top seven or so players.


What should translate is his shooting ability. Valentine can shoot from deep, pulling up or coming off screens. He also has good size to be a decent rebounder.


...which gives us flashbacks to Draymond Green’s days with Tom Izzo. Green and Valentine aren’t the same player at all, but I think Valentine has all of the tools to be effective in the NBA. He can shoot, which is obviously a hot commodity in today’s NBA.


His averages across the board – 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds and 7.8 assists – were superb, but the most telling stat could be his 45.8 assist percentage, the second best in the country.


In a league that demands more playmakers spread across the offense, Valentine's court-awareness and proven success in a motion offense cannot be undersold. Valentine wasn't even supposed to be the primary ball-handler for the Spartans this year; he took over due to injury, and morphed into one of the best floor leaders in the country.


Regardless, it’s his maturity, versatility and his innate ability to oversee a game...


A combination guard with a handle and high-level shooting accuracy...


His 21.2 percent defensive rebounding rate ranked third in the nation among any guard...


Lastly, his size will allow him to defend most shooting guards and small forwards at the next level, given his 6'5.75" height in shoes and 6'10.75" wingspan.


Valentine can struggle to create his own offense. While he may never be a great playmaker for himself, he's smart enough to avoid putting himself in one on one situations and will instead target other mismatches on the floor.


14.8% turnover rate, which equated to a near 3/1 assist-to-turnover ratio.


NEGATIVES (with questions/comments in parenthesis):

Valentine lost focus on both ends at times. He was mainly a culprit of ball watching when on defense and losing track of his man.
(Isn't that something than can be coached up?? Or is this 'what you see is what you get??)

Valentine's shuttle run, 3/4 court sprint, standing vertical jump, and max vertical leap all placed a poor light on his athletic profile.
(I find it comical that the author just 'glosses over' his Lane Agility Drill. Yes, he tested below-average, but hardly 'abysmal')


But at the end of the day, I find it difficult to comprehend how selecting this player at 4th overall is no sheer lunacy, but selecting Valentine would be:

Still, watch Dunn play and the results are wildly inconsistent. At times, he'll make shots that fall effortlessly through the hoop; at other times, he'll miss, wildly, to the left or right, shooting airballs that make you wonder how much progress he's actually made on his shot. In terms of form, there's still quite a bit of extra motion in his shot, and his balance is questionable at times as well, with the plant, angle of jump, and landing seemingly changing from shot to shot, even when not under duress
.

over...

One skill which will translate to the league is his shooting. Valentine isn’t as good of a shooter as Buddy Hield, but he’s even better as an off-ball operator. He loves getting his defenders caught on screens and leaping out to receive an open look. He has a lighting quick release and he shoots on the way up, meaning he’s going to be a solid offensive spacer regardless of whether he ever dribbles the ball
.

...and...

"Running off screens, stop-and-pops, catch-and-shoots, step-backs—Valentine is a versatile shot-maker with a quick release and the ability to convert contested looks."
Adam Morrison was one of the greatest college scorers of all time. So was Doug McDermott. I can find 1sts for them too. Productivity in college is not the best way to evaluate these guys imo.

I like Valentine, but not over a lot of others in this draft. I think 4 is way too high for him.


And those guys were great rebounders, facilitators, had high-BBQ and Court Vision, as well? No, McDermott had well below-average A/TO and PPR ratios, and a 1.5" shorter Wingspan. As did Morrison, and he had even worse athleticism. So let's not act like I'm touting Valentine as a 'shooter' only; he' a more well rounded prospect as a better facilitator, higher BBIQ, etc.
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1607 » by Waylay13 » Sat May 28, 2016 7:06 pm

DRK wrote:The thing about Jaylen is that he has pretty sweet mechanics on his shot. I would not be surprised if he shot alot better at NBA level due to the fact that the offensive gameplan at UCLA does not emphasise spacing at all for the wings


I had read somewhere that that there was some spacing issues for Cal and when you watch the videos for Jaylen I can really see the other teams are packing it in. In one clip I can count all 5 of the other teams players within a step of Brown and he still makes the lap up.
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1608 » by Cactus Jack » Sat May 28, 2016 7:09 pm

JMac1 wrote:
WeekapaugGroove wrote:Everyone after the top two guys has flaws or unknowns. With all these guys you can cherry pick stats or scouting reports that support that will confirm your opinion that the guy will suck or be awesome. Because everyone from fans to draft "experts" seem to rank that second tier differently we should mentally prepare ourselves that no matter who they pick at 4 70% of the people won't like the pick because it wasn't "their guy". Let's just hope the guys the suns pay to make these decisions make the right one.



I am going to be real with. Bender, Dunn, and Brown are all so close with their flaws and potential to be possible cornerstone players, I can't decide 100 percent who to pick, thus, I think the deciding factor should be the dreaded "need player", because BPA is up for debate. If that's the case, I think you'd rank them

Bender
Brown
Dunn

So we end up with Bender or Brown, I am ok with that........today :lol:
(Murray and Hield are not BPA when you include defense potential, plus we have Booker)



Edit: And they are both younger, but still able to push Dunn as the BPA, which means they have more room to grow.

I honestly only see two likely outcomes.
1. They take Bender (He is their guy) assuming he's still available.
2. Boston takes Bender & Dunn is the pick. With the strong chance of a trade (Philly's rumored interest in Dunn).

They pass on Murray, Hield & all of the other guards due to Booker being entrenched.

Celtics: Bender
Suns: *Dunn (Trade)
OR
Celtics: Dunn (trade), Guard
Suns: *Bender
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1609 » by JMac1 » Sat May 28, 2016 7:19 pm

NavLDO wrote:
JMac1 wrote:
Fo-Real wrote:

The things that intrigue me about Brown are his size and athleticism (bron like height and weight). He can shoot and will only get better, and slightly different from just athleticism, he is on skates while on the attack offensively. By that I mean he changes direction without having to slow or even gather his self, it reminds me of D Wade where even when a defender has him tracked or stopped he either still beats him to the angle or goes the other way leaving the defender looking inept. In that video a lot of those kids played his drives to the bucket correctly, but his superior wheels and athletic ability ruled their effort moot. At only 18 and already an NBA body the kid has a chance to be a beast.... or he could bust like many before him but he has every tool at his disposal unlike many before him. His skates will be more useful in a league where you can't really play zone and can no longer grab and impead the ball handler. Not saying he is the next big thing, but HIS SKATE IS ELITE, on the level of the best in the NBA.


:lol: Plus 10000000000000000 I was going to mention this, but I felt I was monopolizing the draft board (on summer vacation :D ). He changes directions on a dime, keeps his feet in an athletic stance no matter how fast he is going when he changes directions, that means he has good balance, a strong core and base. Also, my man can contort like a cat in small spaces. Shifty as hell.

Good eyes!


I hope you all are right, since Brown will likely be very high on our board, and if Bender is gone, and we don't pull the trigger on a trade for Okafor, I be 'ok' with Brown, but some aspects of his profile concern me. But he may likely be the BPA when we pick.



I with you 100 percent.
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1610 » by JMac1 » Sat May 28, 2016 7:22 pm

Cactus Jack wrote:
JMac1 wrote:
WeekapaugGroove wrote:Everyone after the top two guys has flaws or unknowns. With all these guys you can cherry pick stats or scouting reports that support that will confirm your opinion that the guy will suck or be awesome. Because everyone from fans to draft "experts" seem to rank that second tier differently we should mentally prepare ourselves that no matter who they pick at 4 70% of the people won't like the pick because it wasn't "their guy". Let's just hope the guys the suns pay to make these decisions make the right one.



I am going to be real with. Bender, Dunn, and Brown are all so close with their flaws and potential to be possible cornerstone players, I can't decide 100 percent who to pick, thus, I think the deciding factor should be the dreaded "need player", because BPA is up for debate. If that's the case, I think you'd rank them

Bender
Brown
Dunn

So we end up with Bender or Brown, I am ok with that........today :lol:
(Murray and Hield are not BPA when you include defense potential, plus we have Booker)



Edit: And they are both younger, but still able to push Dunn as the BPA, which means they have more room to grow.

I honestly only see two likely outcomes.
1. They take Bender (He is their guy) assuming he's still available.
2. Boston takes Bender & Dunn is the pick. With the strong chance of a trade (Philly's rumored interest in Dunn).

They pass on Murray, Hield & all of the other guards due to Booker being entrenched.

Celtics: Bender
Suns: *Dunn (Trade)
OR
Celtics: Dunn (trade), Guard
Suns: *Bender



You don't think we might go Brown over Okafor if Bender is drafted? Ford said Brown is rising and DX has him mocked #3 now. I think there is three outcomes; yours and Brown going #4.
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1611 » by Cactus Jack » Sat May 28, 2016 7:26 pm

bwgood77 wrote:Reading back over some Pelton NBA projections based on his model...there were two big discrepancies as he compared his WARP rankings and stats to Chad Ford's big board.

Ranking Top 30 draft prospects by stats and scouting

take a first look at my statistical projections for college players.

I've ranked the top 30 NCAA prospects based on my "consensus" projections, which combine stats and scouting. This approach leads to both some surprising results and a good prediction for how well each prospect will perform in the NBA.

To be more specific, I use both my wins above replacement player (WARP) statistical projections and each player's rank on Chad Ford's Big Board to better predict who will be successful in the NBA....

33. Jaylen Brown

California
Small forward
Big Board: No. 6
Stats: No. 121

Consensus: 0.9 WARP

Because he's been such an inefficient scorer, Brown actually projects for negative WARP in the NBA. He's made 49 percent of his 2-point attempts and a dismal 30 percent beyond the arc, numbers that were even worse before Brown improved to 50 percent and 35 percent, respectively, in conference play. That hasn't stopped Brown from finishing more than 30 percent of Cal's plays. His NBA-caliber size, strength and athleticism translated in terms of drawing fouls but Brown was an average rebounder for an NBA-bound small forward and actually below average in terms of steal rate.

67. Skal Labissiere

Kentucky
Center
Big Board: No. 16
Stats: No. 113

Consensus: 0.4 WARP

No player has a bigger gap between potential and production to date than Labissiere, who entered the season a contender to go in the top three (he was my favorite player at last year's Nike Hoop Summit, not Simmons) yet has averaged just 15.6 minutes per game. Lately, Labissiere has shown more signs of his true talent, including an 18-point, nine-rebound, six-block game against LSU. His shot blocking has been good all year. Still, Labissiere's poor defensive rebounding and terrible 2-point percentage for a college big man (52 percent) give him too a negative WARP projection.


http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14987234/ranking-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-top-prospects-2016-nba-draft-statistical-projections

Pass.
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1612 » by JMac1 » Sat May 28, 2016 7:32 pm

bwgood77 wrote:Reading back over some Pelton NBA projections based on his model...there were two big discrepancies as he compared his WARP rankings and stats to Chad Ford's big board.

Ranking Top 30 draft prospects by stats and scouting

take a first look at my statistical projections for college players.

I've ranked the top 30 NCAA prospects based on my "consensus" projections, which combine stats and scouting. This approach leads to both some surprising results and a good prediction for how well each prospect will perform in the NBA.

To be more specific, I use both my wins above replacement player (WARP) statistical projections and each player's rank on Chad Ford's Big Board to better predict who will be successful in the NBA....

33. Jaylen Brown

California
Small forward
Big Board: No. 6
Stats: No. 121

Consensus: 0.9 WARP

Because he's been such an inefficient scorer, Brown actually projects for negative WARP in the NBA. He's made 49 percent of his 2-point attempts and a dismal 30 percent beyond the arc, numbers that were even worse before Brown improved to 50 percent and 35 percent, respectively, in conference play. That hasn't stopped Brown from finishing more than 30 percent of Cal's plays. His NBA-caliber size, strength and athleticism translated in terms of drawing fouls but Brown was an average rebounder for an NBA-bound small forward and actually below average in terms of steal rate.

67. Skal Labissiere

Kentucky
Center
Big Board: No. 16
Stats: No. 113

Consensus: 0.4 WARP

No player has a bigger gap between potential and production to date than Labissiere, who entered the season a contender to go in the top three (he was my favorite player at last year's Nike Hoop Summit, not Simmons) yet has averaged just 15.6 minutes per game. Lately, Labissiere has shown more signs of his true talent, including an 18-point, nine-rebound, six-block game against LSU. His shot blocking has been good all year. Still, Labissiere's poor defensive rebounding and terrible 2-point percentage for a college big man (52 percent) give him too a negative WARP projection.


http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14987234/ranking-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-top-prospects-2016-nba-draft-statistical-projections


So he sees that as making his stats look better because he believes Brown should have shot worse than 30 percent, but because of his better shooting later in the season, Brown really isn't even a 30 percent 3pt shooter. He dismisses his improvement in order to show that his "WARP" will correctly predict Brown as a failure, versus Brown was getting better and he will continue to improve. Maybe there was an adjustment level going from high school to DIV 1 college basketball. "Stats don't lie, statisticians do"
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1613 » by Cactus Jack » Sat May 28, 2016 7:36 pm

JMac1 wrote:
Cactus Jack wrote:
JMac1 wrote:

I am going to be real with. Bender, Dunn, and Brown are all so close with their flaws and potential to be possible cornerstone players, I can't decide 100 percent who to pick, thus, I think the deciding factor should be the dreaded "need player", because BPA is up for debate. If that's the case, I think you'd rank them

Bender
Brown
Dunn

So we end up with Bender or Brown, I am ok with that........today :lol:
(Murray and Hield are not BPA when you include defense potential, plus we have Booker)



Edit: And they are both younger, but still able to push Dunn as the BPA, which means they have more room to grow.

I honestly only see two likely outcomes.
1. They take Bender (He is their guy) assuming he's still available.
2. Boston takes Bender & Dunn is the pick. With the strong chance of a trade (Philly's rumored interest in Dunn).

They pass on Murray, Hield & all of the other guards due to Booker being entrenched.

Celtics: Bender
Suns: *Dunn (Trade)
OR
Celtics: Dunn (trade), Guard
Suns: *Bender



You don't think we might go Brown over Okafor if Bender is drafted? Ford said Brown is rising and DX has him mocked #3 now. I think there is three outcomes; yours and Brown going #4.

That would be foolish. I guess anything is possible.
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1614 » by saintEscaton » Sat May 28, 2016 7:40 pm

Brown has an underrated handle, he can split defenders off the dribble has a nice jab step, but when he puts his head he gets tunnel vision, will often cough it up barreling into defenders or get called for a charge. Cuonzo deserves some blame. But I think he would be a less of a massive reach than Chriss who is the superior offensive players as of now but inferior one on defender and not the genetic freak Brown is, he is built like a toothpick. Chriss second worst defensive rebounder in the last 30 years. He overcommits and racks up flashy weakside blocks and can stay in front of his man, but bites on everything and blow by easily because his stance is completely upright with little leverage. Also he is shooting 35% from deep on like less than 2 attempts per game which is promising but nothing to write home about
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1615 » by sunsbum » Sat May 28, 2016 8:10 pm

Is Ford right about anything anymore? :crazy: Hanging on to that last thread of relevancy IMO. Yesterday Brown was dropping like a rock, all of a sudden "Could be a top 3 pick" :roll:. If we have a shot to get Okafor which I believe we do... (more so than the Celtics, why would they trade him to a division rival) it needs to get done no questions asked.
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1616 » by bwgood77 » Sat May 28, 2016 8:17 pm

JMac1 wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:Reading back over some Pelton NBA projections based on his model...there were two big discrepancies as he compared his WARP rankings and stats to Chad Ford's big board.

Ranking Top 30 draft prospects by stats and scouting

take a first look at my statistical projections for college players.

I've ranked the top 30 NCAA prospects based on my "consensus" projections, which combine stats and scouting. This approach leads to both some surprising results and a good prediction for how well each prospect will perform in the NBA.

To be more specific, I use both my wins above replacement player (WARP) statistical projections and each player's rank on Chad Ford's Big Board to better predict who will be successful in the NBA....

33. Jaylen Brown

California
Small forward
Big Board: No. 6
Stats: No. 121

Consensus: 0.9 WARP

Because he's been such an inefficient scorer, Brown actually projects for negative WARP in the NBA. He's made 49 percent of his 2-point attempts and a dismal 30 percent beyond the arc, numbers that were even worse before Brown improved to 50 percent and 35 percent, respectively, in conference play. That hasn't stopped Brown from finishing more than 30 percent of Cal's plays. His NBA-caliber size, strength and athleticism translated in terms of drawing fouls but Brown was an average rebounder for an NBA-bound small forward and actually below average in terms of steal rate.

67. Skal Labissiere

Kentucky
Center
Big Board: No. 16
Stats: No. 113

Consensus: 0.4 WARP

No player has a bigger gap between potential and production to date than Labissiere, who entered the season a contender to go in the top three (he was my favorite player at last year's Nike Hoop Summit, not Simmons) yet has averaged just 15.6 minutes per game. Lately, Labissiere has shown more signs of his true talent, including an 18-point, nine-rebound, six-block game against LSU. His shot blocking has been good all year. Still, Labissiere's poor defensive rebounding and terrible 2-point percentage for a college big man (52 percent) give him too a negative WARP projection.


http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14987234/ranking-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-top-prospects-2016-nba-draft-statistical-projections


So he sees that as making his stats look better because he believes Brown should have shot worse than 30 percent, but because of his better shooting later in the season, Brown really isn't even a 30 percent 3pt shooter. He dismisses his improvement in order to show that his "WARP" will correctly predict Brown as a failure, versus Brown was getting better and he will continue to improve. Maybe there was an adjustment level going from high school to DIV 1 college basketball. "Stats don't lie, statisticians do"

I think you misread. His conference stats alone were 35% but overall he was still sub 30 even with those conference games included. But yes, improvement is a good thing. Still shot in the 60% range from line though which is usually best indicator of future ability to improve 3 pt shot.
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1617 » by JMac1 » Sat May 28, 2016 8:19 pm

sunsbum wrote:Is Ford right about anything anymore? :crazy: Hanging on to that last thread of relevancy IMO. Yesterday Brown was dropping like a rock, all of a sudden "Could be a top 3 pick" :roll:. If we have a shot to get Okafor which I believe we do... (more so than the Celtics, why would they trade him to a division rival) it needs to get done no questions asked.



Okafor is not a two-way player as of now and doesn't look to be in the near future in the modern NBA, Bender and Brown could be that. You know Okafor is a super beast (2016 savage) and if he develops any type of defense he is not as risky, but you have to weigh everything about those guys.

How about this who is Brown ceiling type of player versus Okafor ceiling player? Then choose.

Brown= Kawhi?
Okafor= Cousins?
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1618 » by JMac1 » Sat May 28, 2016 8:24 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
JMac1 wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:Reading back over some Pelton NBA projections based on his model...there were two big discrepancies as he compared his WARP rankings and stats to Chad Ford's big board.



http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14987234/ranking-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-top-prospects-2016-nba-draft-statistical-projections


So he sees that as making his stats look better because he believes Brown should have shot worse than 30 percent, but because of his better shooting later in the season, Brown really isn't even a 30 percent 3pt shooter. He dismisses his improvement in order to show that his "WARP" will correctly predict Brown as a failure, versus Brown was getting better and he will continue to improve. Maybe there was an adjustment level going from high school to DIV 1 college basketball. "Stats don't lie, statisticians do"

I think you misread. His conference stats alone were 35% but overall he was still sub 30 even with those conference games included. But yes, improvement is a good thing. Still shot in the 60% range from line though which is usually best indicator of future ability to improve 3 pt shot.



I read it as "Brown was a sucky offensive of player, see look at his stats, and if not for his improved shooting late in the season, his stats would have been suckier, so my WARP proves he is the 33 best ranked player."


Because he's been such an inefficient scorer, Brown actually projects for negative WARP in the NBA. He's made 49 percent of his 2-point attempts and a dismal 30 percent beyond the arc, numbers that were even worse before Brown improved to 50 percent and 35 percent, respectively, in conference play. That hasn't stopped Brown from finishing more than 30 percent of Cal's plays. His NBA-caliber size, strength and athleticism translated in terms of drawing fouls but Brown was an average rebounder for an NBA-bound small forward and actually below average in terms of steal rate.


Pay attention to that word dismal. See how he said his numbers improved, meaning they were worse than 30 percent?
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1619 » by saintEscaton » Sat May 28, 2016 8:27 pm

Brown is not even on the level of Stanimal. much less Justice Winslow coming out. He has a looong way to go before he can even be mentioned in the same sentence as Kawhi
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Re: 2016 Draft 

Post#1620 » by bwgood77 » Sat May 28, 2016 8:27 pm

JMac1 wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
JMac1 wrote:
So he sees that as making his stats look better because he believes Brown should have shot worse than 30 percent, but because of his better shooting later in the season, Brown really isn't even a 30 percent 3pt shooter. He dismisses his improvement in order to show that his "WARP" will correctly predict Brown as a failure, versus Brown was getting better and he will continue to improve. Maybe there was an adjustment level going from high school to DIV 1 college basketball. "Stats don't lie, statisticians do"

I think you misread. His conference stats alone were 35% but overall he was still sub 30 even with those conference games included. But yes, improvement is a good thing. Still shot in the 60% range from line though which is usually best indicator of future ability to improve 3 pt shot.



I read it as "Brown was a sucky offensive of player, see look at his stats, and if not for his improved shooting late in the season, his stats would have been suckier, so my WARP proves he is the 33 best ranked player."

No his WARP ranks him much lower. He ended at 33 when blended with Ford's board ranking of six at the time.

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