Los Soles wrote:NavLDO wrote:It was cute the first time you did it, now it just shows your maturity level...
Ok, you're right. I shouldn't have done that. I'm sorry. It was unnecessary and unhelpful.
The truth is, you make some good points. In particular...
- It's not just player vs player...it's also about contracts. Both length & amount.
- Injury concerns
- Telly is sorta similar to Gallo, so what's the point?
- With all the question marks here, why give up a solid asset like Markieff (again factoring in contract length & amount)??
I think the sum total of that case is legit. I don't actually think this proposed trade will happen...perhaps because of these types of reasons...or perhaps from Denver's side.
I still wanna make this trade, but I recognize why smart people with good basketball sense would disagree with me.
These are my biggest issues with your arguments:
- "I, and others, would rather have Mirza than Gallinari on this team." That was never an either/or discussion. That's like GS fans having a big debate between Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, and Harrison Barnes. In the modern NBA, I want as many wing types who play defense and shoot threes as possible. I want both Mirza and Gallo. One to start and one to come off the bench...and they'd almost certainly play together sometimes. You want AT LEAST a couple of these types of players on the court at all times. -- My concern with that line-up, however, is that now we would have two PFs with injury concerns, with Leuer as our emergency 4?? That just flat out scares me, TBH. The other part that scares me would be Horny using Gallinari at the 3, instead of 4, so now we're back to Warren getting limited minutes. IMO, Warren is ready to play now.
- Basing such a huge part of your case on a couple of playoff series. The sample size is just too small. For Gallo, you're talking about just two series, two teams, both when he was U23. I just don't think you can conclude much of anything from that. I mean Michael Jordan was hardly...Michael Jordan...when his team got bounced quickly in his first three playoff series U23. You just can't take that tiny sample and then extrapolate to: this is who Gallo is forever gonna be in the playoffs. And on the flip-side, Telly's playing an extremely limited reserve role in the playoffs for the Nets: he played a grand total of 16 minutes in 6 games this past season's playoffs. --Fair enough, but my point was more on how poor Gallinari played, than how well Teletovic played.
- Outright rejection of APM/RAPM numbers. I don't think they're the words of Allah or anything, but you gotta recognize that this is an important part of the picture we can draw for a player. It gives us an (admittedly imperfect) baseline for the value of the player. It's absolutely fine to question them and argue against a particular value -- and there are valid reasons for doing so -- but that's not the same thing as just flat-out declaring them useless. In particular, box scores stats tell us basically nothing about defense. So if you're gonna just reject a DRAPM value, that case has to have some serious homework behind it: in-depth lineup analysis, advanced stats about opponents' %s, video analysis, etc.
--Understood. I didn't mean to come off as total rejection of RAPM, which I know I did. But with the way RAPM works, picking a single season, especially one in which Mirza played half the season, is just as faulty as using 12 playoff games for one to compare against 16 games for the other. Additionally, Mirza has played the equivalent of 2 seasons in the NBA in a back-up role, where as Gallo has played the equivalent of 4 1/2 seasons in a starter role. And while we are unlikely to know for sure, how do we know that Mirza wouldn't play better in a starter role, or that once Gallo gets here and possibly not playing in a starter role, it won't affect how these two players compare. To me, we're trying to compare a reserve PF with a starting SF, you know, the whole 'apples to oranges' thing. Botom line, I think you are making the assumption that if we bring Gallo in, he'll be a 'stretch 4' type--whereas I'm worried that if we trade for him, he becomes a SF next to Teletovic as our 4.
Ok, now in terms of my fundamental argument in favor of the trade, the most complete explanation I have is what I wrote
here. The argument, in my opinion, is not Gallo vs Telly, but Gallo vs Markieff. -- Understood here, as well, but we are trading a healthy 4 for an injury prone 3-4 tweener. A guy we have locked up for 4 years vs a year rental, at $3.6M more. If we are trading Kieff, I would want a PF with at least 2, preferably, 3 more years, and a guy that is relatively healthy, or less 'injury prone'
Basically my argument boils down to playing style, rather than the details in TS% and whatnot. It's a philosophical understanding of how the game has changed. With Chandler here, I no longer think Markieff fits. The Bled/Markieff/Chandler/Len core is just
perfect for keeping us on the mediocrity treadmill. Gallo's a risk in several ways. But he makes us intriguing as hell. He's a historically solid 3&D guy...who also has a freakish offensive skill set.
IF he stays healthy, and
IF he sticks around for longer than a year, and
IF he finds appropriate space in our system to use his impressive array of skills...well then we're all of a sudden freakin' scary. And I just can't imagine us becoming scary with the Bled/Markieff/Chandler/Len core.
-- I am not arguing the 'fundamentals' of your argument. I don't mind loading up with more shooters, but...continued below...
Too many
ifs? Perhaps. But I think we all know what happens if we stay the course.
Nothing.
...and this last part I do disagree on. For one, we now have a whole new shooting corps in Weems, Booker, Teletovic, Leuer, and now Len is shooting well from farther out. We haven't 'stayed the course' at all.
And secondly, last year, our depth chart looked essentially like:
Bledsoe/
IT/EnnisDragic/Green/Z. Dragic/Goodwin
Tucker/
Marcus/Warren
Kieff/
TolliverLen/
PlumleeAnd in between, we've gone through:
Wright, Bullock, McNeal, T. Mitchell, Barron, Granger And his year...
Bledsoe/
Price/Goodwin
Knight/Weems/BookerTucker/Warren
Kieff/
Teletovic/LeuerChandler/Len
So basically, we have only SIX players of a possible 15 that we started with last year. And then, add in all the changes we made throughout the season that didn't even last through the season, and I'd say we've done anything BUT stay the course.
We have no idea how the addition of Chandler, Teletovic, and Weems, and to a lesser extent, Leuer and Booker, will have on our performance. Why try to change even more than we have, without knowing WHAT we have. Now, that said, if we could find a suitable, worthwhile, healthy improvement to Kieff, then sure, but right now, I'm not sure that player exists for the right price.
