Rebuilding the Spurs

[Rustyman]

Now that Sochan is moving into restricted free agency, lets try to explore the reasons why this decision was made:

1. From the Spurs perspective, Sochan has played 184 games over the past 3 seasons, 56/74/54 or 75% of games. The problem is not that he has had a major injury but that he constantly seems to run into injuries which prevent the Spurs management from getting a clear read on him. Sochan has had some good runs, especially at the beginning of last season when he was averaging around 14 points and 8 rebounds and his improvement in 3 point percentage in Jan/Feb. He is acknowledged as a plus defender and I think something like second team all NBA defense is possible this year, however, once again, he does not have a consistent season of performance on record. All this is to say it is difficult to judge whether he is a MLE, 20 or 25m/year player.

2. The salary cap landscape has changed. With the aprons, the middle tier (4th to 7th players on the roster) of NBA players are getting squeezed. We are seeing that if you are not clearly 1-3 on the any team, you are not getting paid more than around $25m/year and if teams are giving players that money, they need to be convinced that they can rely on that performance throughout the year. Sochan fits into this category but his performances have been inconsistent.

3. Also, salary cap planning. Most teams, will only be supporting 2 max contracts, one mid (25-40m) and the rest will be $10m-25m. For the Spurs, in two years time, this will be Wemby and Fox with Castle having to be paid the year after and Harper the year after that. The Spurs currently have Devin Vassell being paid 3rd starter money, Keldon being paid $20m and a host of other who need paying to round out the roster. The $20-25m for Sochan needs to be for a consistent commodity and unfortunately, Sochan is not that at the moment.

If Sochan at the end of the season is worth 20-25m, then the Spurs will pay that otherwise they will switch focus to other players. Also, if Champagnie becomes a consistent 3&D threat, where is his money coming from.

[G R E Y]

Sochan is a victim of his own inconsistency as much as of changing team roles.

On the one hand, he plays a physical style and gets under opponents' skin. He's not afraid to get in a tussle. So the little nagging injuries come with the territory, but they are starting to add up. Some balance of picking your battles and making healthier luck is in order.

But on court consistency (tied however much to availability) is entering a prove-it year. Too much has been made of the 18-game starting PG experiment even if his position and roles have changed. You get the sense Pop was trying yo get him out of a comfort zone and see if he could make different reads, etc. I still think putting guys in this role (Keldon and Dev before him were tasked with bringing up the ball and initiating O) helps them see the whole thing differently, more cohesively, rather than just one's role in it.

And even with Sochan's woeful 3s shooting, what's crucial is his fit alongside Wemby. This, as much as anything, is what has him coming off the bench. He could get away with not passing to Wemby in year 1, though even then it was obvious whose team it was. But now Wemby is us calling guys out for not making the right pass, and there's even less of an excuse with Wemby himself passing on shots to pass to teammates in better position.

There's a stubbornness to Sochan that works against him sometimes, wanting to stand out at the expense of the team, be it not making a right pass or taking the end of Q shot. It can work for him if it's more aligned with team needs.

Keldon is a perfect example of a guy who stands out by adjusting his skills and style of play to suit team needs much better. He is useful off ball, makes great cuts, does not over dribble, and can score in multiple ways. He crucially also makes the extra pass. Great energy, controlled physicality, nice rim touch, and multi-level scoring threat. He earned his contract by catering his game to team needs.

Sochan's development is not fully there yet in that regard. We will see this season if something has clicked and he expands his skill set and matches team needs and fit better. Do that, and the contract will take care of itself.

[G R E Y]

p.s. we have no idea about how close or far apart sides are, whether Sochan wants a bigger role, or whether he's truly happy here.

A trade is also a possibility. Sochan, Devin, Barnes for Lauri works per Spotrac NBA trade machine.

[Rustyman]

1. Sochan is a victim of his own inconsistency as much as of changing team roles.

2. But on court consistency (tied however much to availability) is entering a prove-it year.

3. And even with Sochan's woeful 3s shooting, what's crucial is his fit alongside Wemby.

4. Keldon is a perfect example of a guy who stands out by adjusting his skills and style of play to suit team needs much better. He is useful off ball, makes great cuts, does not over dribble, and can score in multiple ways. He crucially also makes the extra pass. Great energy, controlled physicality, nice rim touch, and multi-level scoring threat. He earned his contract by catering his game to team needs.

5. Sochan's development is not fully there yet in that regard. We will see this season if something has clicked and he expands his skill set and matches team needs and fit better. Do that, and the contract will take care of itself.

I will take these points one by one:

1. However much I like Sochan, inconsistency is the reason for him not getting the contract he wants

2. Sochan has to show what he has to earn that contract. Tough but fair.

3. This is something I firmly believe. Sochan plays better with Wemby on the court but the converse is also true.

4. I have never been a Keldon fan but you cannot doubt that he has done whatever the Spurs want him to do which is one of the reasons I think he may retire as a Spur.

5. The final point is self explanatory. Sochan's future with the Spurs will be determined by Sochan himself.

[Rustyman]

Nice start by the Spurs but it is only one game of 82. What I liked:

1. No significant defensive drop off with Kornet on the field
2. Castle's aggressiveness
3. Wemby in the paint
4. Keldon not forcing it
6. Harper's composure
7. Vassell making an effort on defense.

Needs attention:
1. Think the second unit needs another scorer with Keldon and Vassell might have to go to the bench to fulfill that role
2. Need Sochan back as they need another 3/4 defender.
3. Free throws. Cannot waste gimmes.
4. Think teams might focus more on Wemby inside which might open Champagnie and Barnes.
5. Bryant was lost out there but he may have a future if he learns to shoot.

[G R E Y]

I'm very high on Carter. His defense is ready and assertive from day one. We can wait on his O game to come along.

I like Sochan energy with the first group, especially if Barnes isn't scoring well on a given night. But Sochan has to show more scoring consistency so he's not a 3s liability. And of course fit with Wemby. If first pro game Dylan can be a willing passer to Wemby, there's no excuse for Sochan. Zero reason to look off him when he's calling for it. Know, accept, and star in your your role, get minutes.

I think once Fox and Sochan return early November the starting 5 will be Fox Dev Castle likely Barnes and Wemby, putting scorer Champie with the second unit, a nice outside complement to Keldon's bully ball.

Depending on matchups and what Sochan shows, maybe he can reclaim a starting spot, but Barnes is a reliable vet right now. Sochan provides better more physical D but is a wildcard. So we'll see.

Either way, it will be good to have more depth back and have a bigger variety of combinations to throw at opponents. Plus some internal competition for roles and minutes or better distribution of them throughout the season are also good.

[G R E Y]

Tomorrow (or later today) we need to talk about Devin...

[G R E Y]

Ok. So Champagnie's no pressure pre-season shooting highs have fallen off a cliff. Yes he's a great contract - for a bench guy who can focus on the specific role he has, get open, shoot 3s, and an occasional cut and rim finish. And as a starter with a career high 29.9 minutes per game he's still giving bench production with 8.4/6.1/1.6 on career low 40.4%FG and career low 32.2% from 3 and career low 64.7% FTs.

He's not a starter and is in the too big shoes to fill position by default. Why he's in games late when we need stops is baffling, too, but once Fox returns, odds are that Champagnie goes to the bench.

On to Devin. I've long been in his corner. This is the season in which he was coming in healthy, working healthy all summer for a ramped up year. And yet in career high 34.2 minutes per game, so far he has averaged the second lowest FG% since his rookie year at 41.3%, consistent mid-30s percentage from 3 now at 35.4% on career high 8 attempts per game, career low 62.5%FTs on a mere 1.3 attempts per game, 4.3 boards, 2.3 assists, and 14.7PPG, lowest since his sophomore season. Better defender than JC.

But in terms of the juice for the squeeze, he has either dropped or stayed the same across the board in the stated categories. The best season was 23/24 when he produced 19.5/3.8/4.1. He was extended coming into that season. And has dropped off since. The most games he's played was 71 in his second season. Rookie, 62, then 38, 68 (this is 23/24), 64.

Somewhere between injuries happen and availability is an ability (JC played 74 and 82 games the previous two seasons, raking full advantage of a ready to plug and olay role). So for $3M we get 8/6 and for $27M we get 14.7/4.3.

It's a simplification of contribution, but it does tell a tale of value for money. Thankfully Vassell's contract descends in terms of percentage of cap over time. But with cap realities what they are now, evaluations can be harsh, and he has not been the same guy of a couple of years ago.

I think the expectation was that coming through the summer and into the season healthy would result in some uptick - efficiency, production, assertiveness... But so far what's been confirmed is Devin is who he is now. Not a guy who will give you an aggressive downhill game - his FTAs have been consistently low since he got to the league. He can drive through contact, just doesn't like to.

Still over dribbles and takes too long to make decisions with the ball in his hands, still fantastically unclutch, with some good D and spots of standout games. For $27M.

Payton Pritchard extended for $7.5M average and produces 15/4/5 as starter this season despite absolutely sucking from 3 at 22.4%, an anomaly from his career high 30s to low 40s percentage production from the arc. You expect that to return to the mean. He's dropped in overall efficiency in a bigger role and as starter, not unexpected of an adjustment.

Is Devin $20M more of a defender? He's too costly for a bench role but is producing like he's coming off the bench. Last season, Pritchard produced 14.3/3.8/3.5 on 47.2%FG and a scorching 40.7% from 3. He's consistent at a higher level than Devin throughout his career. Different role and expectations and level of talent through the years? Sure. But then Devin has not had this much talent around him and still plays the same too unsure too slow too inconsistent game. Unless proven otherwise, he is who he is. Do we live with it and shoehorn him at the 2, pushing Castle to the 3 or do we package him for a starting level 3 to balance out the roster?

I think we do the former. As this young season has shown, guard depth can get depleted quickly. Whether or not we should is largely up to Devin. He must level up as the last two draftees are at his heels. Maybe that pressure is affecting him which is itself telling. But we have signs of more of the same or worse on O with better D than when he was showcasing his O. We have to decide who we go forward with long term, and whether the role and production for contract value makes sense.

[Rustyman]

Ok. So Champagnie's no pressure pre-season shooting highs have fallen off a cliff. Yes he's a great contract - for a bench guy who can focus on the specific role he has, get open, shoot 3s, and an occasional cut and rim finish. And as a starter with a career high 29.9 minutes per game he's still giving bench production with 8.4/6.1/1.6 on career low 40.4%FG and career low 32.2% from 3 and career low 64.7% FTs.

He's not a starter and is in the too big shoes to fill position by default. Why he's in games late when we need stops is baffling, too, but once Fox returns, odds are that Champagnie goes to the bench.

Okay, a massive post so I will respond to one piece at a time.

With Champagnie, I think his shooting splits will recover. However, I remain he is a crucial rotation/bench player as he is one of the only semi-consistent 3-point shooters the Spurs have. I actually think he will be better off the bench in a 3&D role and I am quite confident he will become a 10+ year player in that role.

Currently, Champagnie is on a great deal. However, that is due to end either this season or next. I believe that Champagnie is a $10m/year to MLE player, with MLE being realistic if he improves his overall defense and hits around 40% from 3. I think his defense is seen by the coaches as being effective i.e. disciplined and in the past couple of games he has chipped in with rebounds and stops. Lets hope Julian becomes the best player he can be (off the bench) as that should mean that the Spurs are successful.

[Rustyman]

On to Devin. I've long been in his corner. This is the season in which he was coming in healthy, working healthy all summer for a ramped up year. And yet in career high 34.2 minutes per game, so far he has averaged the second lowest FG% since his rookie year at 41.3%, consistent mid-30s percentage from 3 now at 35.4% on career high 8 attempts per game, career low 62.5%FTs on a mere 1.3 attempts per game, 4.3 boards, 2.3 assists, and 14.7PPG, lowest since his sophomore season. Better defender than JC.

But in terms of the juice for the squeeze, he has either dropped or stayed the same across the board in the stated categories. The best season was 23/24 when he produced 19.5/3.8/4.1. He was extended coming into that season. And has dropped off since. The most games he's played was 71 in his second season. Rookie, 62, then 38, 68 (this is 23/24), 64.

.... Unless proven otherwise, HE IS WHO HE IS . Do we live with it and shoehorn him at the 2, pushing Castle to the 3 or do we package him for a starting level 3 to balance out the roster?

The Spurs are lucky in that they only have 2 what can be called "bad" contracts on the books. One is Keldon at $20m/yr and I can live with that for another couple of seasons due to his willingness to work and do whatever the team needs.

The second is Devin and I think this is unequivocally a bad contract/overpay. Devin is in his 6th year. He is who he is. A streaky shooter who can, when motivated play D. However, players in his role should be earning the MLE, not almost $27m/year. He has never really taken the step up into being elite at anything and he is never likely to make an All Star game. That is why I highlighted your original message above. He is not going to change much. Now Keldon, has try to reinvent himself 3 times to fit into the team. That deserves a longer leash.

Now I want the Spurs to do well and Devin to become more consistent but that is simply so that he becomes tradeable mid-season. I want two players for his money. A proven 3&D guy at the MLE and a young center to backup Kornet as Biyombo seems to be done. Devin unfortunately thinks he can and should be more than a 3&D player but that is what he is and by trying to prove he can do more, he hurts the Spurs.

Six years is enough to end the Devin experiment.