Rebuilding the Spurs

[Rustyman]

Now that Sochan is moving into restricted free agency, lets try to explore the reasons why this decision was made:

1. From the Spurs perspective, Sochan has played 184 games over the past 3 seasons, 56/74/54 or 75% of games. The problem is not that he has had a major injury but that he constantly seems to run into injuries which prevent the Spurs management from getting a clear read on him. Sochan has had some good runs, especially at the beginning of last season when he was averaging around 14 points and 8 rebounds and his improvement in 3 point percentage in Jan/Feb. He is acknowledged as a plus defender and I think something like second team all NBA defense is possible this year, however, once again, he does not have a consistent season of performance on record. All this is to say it is difficult to judge whether he is a MLE, 20 or 25m/year player.

2. The salary cap landscape has changed. With the aprons, the middle tier (4th to 7th players on the roster) of NBA players are getting squeezed. We are seeing that if you are not clearly 1-3 on the any team, you are not getting paid more than around $25m/year and if teams are giving players that money, they need to be convinced that they can rely on that performance throughout the year. Sochan fits into this category but his performances have been inconsistent.

3. Also, salary cap planning. Most teams, will only be supporting 2 max contracts, one mid (25-40m) and the rest will be $10m-25m. For the Spurs, in two years time, this will be Wemby and Fox with Castle having to be paid the year after and Harper the year after that. The Spurs currently have Devin Vassell being paid 3rd starter money, Keldon being paid $20m and a host of other who need paying to round out the roster. The $20-25m for Sochan needs to be for a consistent commodity and unfortunately, Sochan is not that at the moment.

If Sochan at the end of the season is worth 20-25m, then the Spurs will pay that otherwise they will switch focus to other players. Also, if Champagnie becomes a consistent 3&D threat, where is his money coming from.

[G R E Y]

Sochan is a victim of his own inconsistency as much as of changing team roles.

On the one hand, he plays a physical style and gets under opponents' skin. He's not afraid to get in a tussle. So the little nagging injuries come with the territory, but they are starting to add up. Some balance of picking your battles and making healthier luck is in order.

But on court consistency (tied however much to availability) is entering a prove-it year. Too much has been made of the 18-game starting PG experiment even if his position and roles have changed. You get the sense Pop was trying yo get him out of a comfort zone and see if he could make different reads, etc. I still think putting guys in this role (Keldon and Dev before him were tasked with bringing up the ball and initiating O) helps them see the whole thing differently, more cohesively, rather than just one's role in it.

And even with Sochan's woeful 3s shooting, what's crucial is his fit alongside Wemby. This, as much as anything, is what has him coming off the bench. He could get away with not passing to Wemby in year 1, though even then it was obvious whose team it was. But now Wemby is us calling guys out for not making the right pass, and there's even less of an excuse with Wemby himself passing on shots to pass to teammates in better position.

There's a stubbornness to Sochan that works against him sometimes, wanting to stand out at the expense of the team, be it not making a right pass or taking the end of Q shot. It can work for him if it's more aligned with team needs.

Keldon is a perfect example of a guy who stands out by adjusting his skills and style of play to suit team needs much better. He is useful off ball, makes great cuts, does not over dribble, and can score in multiple ways. He crucially also makes the extra pass. Great energy, controlled physicality, nice rim touch, and multi-level scoring threat. He earned his contract by catering his game to team needs.

Sochan's development is not fully there yet in that regard. We will see this season if something has clicked and he expands his skill set and matches team needs and fit better. Do that, and the contract will take care of itself.

[G R E Y]

p.s. we have no idea about how close or far apart sides are, whether Sochan wants a bigger role, or whether he's truly happy here.

A trade is also a possibility. Sochan, Devin, Barnes for Lauri works per Spotrac NBA trade machine.

[Rustyman]

1. Sochan is a victim of his own inconsistency as much as of changing team roles.

2. But on court consistency (tied however much to availability) is entering a prove-it year.

3. And even with Sochan's woeful 3s shooting, what's crucial is his fit alongside Wemby.

4. Keldon is a perfect example of a guy who stands out by adjusting his skills and style of play to suit team needs much better. He is useful off ball, makes great cuts, does not over dribble, and can score in multiple ways. He crucially also makes the extra pass. Great energy, controlled physicality, nice rim touch, and multi-level scoring threat. He earned his contract by catering his game to team needs.

5. Sochan's development is not fully there yet in that regard. We will see this season if something has clicked and he expands his skill set and matches team needs and fit better. Do that, and the contract will take care of itself.

I will take these points one by one:

1. However much I like Sochan, inconsistency is the reason for him not getting the contract he wants

2. Sochan has to show what he has to earn that contract. Tough but fair.

3. This is something I firmly believe. Sochan plays better with Wemby on the court but the converse is also true.

4. I have never been a Keldon fan but you cannot doubt that he has done whatever the Spurs want him to do which is one of the reasons I think he may retire as a Spur.

5. The final point is self explanatory. Sochan's future with the Spurs will be determined by Sochan himself.

[Rustyman]

Nice start by the Spurs but it is only one game of 82. What I liked:

1. No significant defensive drop off with Kornet on the field
2. Castle's aggressiveness
3. Wemby in the paint
4. Keldon not forcing it
6. Harper's composure
7. Vassell making an effort on defense.

Needs attention:
1. Think the second unit needs another scorer with Keldon and Vassell might have to go to the bench to fulfill that role
2. Need Sochan back as they need another 3/4 defender.
3. Free throws. Cannot waste gimmes.
4. Think teams might focus more on Wemby inside which might open Champagnie and Barnes.
5. Bryant was lost out there but he may have a future if he learns to shoot.

[G R E Y]

I'm very high on Carter. His defense is ready and assertive from day one. We can wait on his O game to come along.

I like Sochan energy with the first group, especially if Barnes isn't scoring well on a given night. But Sochan has to show more scoring consistency so he's not a 3s liability. And of course fit with Wemby. If first pro game Dylan can be a willing passer to Wemby, there's no excuse for Sochan. Zero reason to look off him when he's calling for it. Know, accept, and star in your your role, get minutes.

I think once Fox and Sochan return early November the starting 5 will be Fox Dev Castle likely Barnes and Wemby, putting scorer Champie with the second unit, a nice outside complement to Keldon's bully ball.

Depending on matchups and what Sochan shows, maybe he can reclaim a starting spot, but Barnes is a reliable vet right now. Sochan provides better more physical D but is a wildcard. So we'll see.

Either way, it will be good to have more depth back and have a bigger variety of combinations to throw at opponents. Plus some internal competition for roles and minutes or better distribution of them throughout the season are also good.

[G R E Y]

Tomorrow (or later today) we need to talk about Devin...

[G R E Y]

Ok. So Champagnie's no pressure pre-season shooting highs have fallen off a cliff. Yes he's a great contract - for a bench guy who can focus on the specific role he has, get open, shoot 3s, and an occasional cut and rim finish. And as a starter with a career high 29.9 minutes per game he's still giving bench production with 8.4/6.1/1.6 on career low 40.4%FG and career low 32.2% from 3 and career low 64.7% FTs.

He's not a starter and is in the too big shoes to fill position by default. Why he's in games late when we need stops is baffling, too, but once Fox returns, odds are that Champagnie goes to the bench.

On to Devin. I've long been in his corner. This is the season in which he was coming in healthy, working healthy all summer for a ramped up year. And yet in career high 34.2 minutes per game, so far he has averaged the second lowest FG% since his rookie year at 41.3%, consistent mid-30s percentage from 3 now at 35.4% on career high 8 attempts per game, career low 62.5%FTs on a mere 1.3 attempts per game, 4.3 boards, 2.3 assists, and 14.7PPG, lowest since his sophomore season. Better defender than JC.

But in terms of the juice for the squeeze, he has either dropped or stayed the same across the board in the stated categories. The best season was 23/24 when he produced 19.5/3.8/4.1. He was extended coming into that season. And has dropped off since. The most games he's played was 71 in his second season. Rookie, 62, then 38, 68 (this is 23/24), 64.

Somewhere between injuries happen and availability is an ability (JC played 74 and 82 games the previous two seasons, raking full advantage of a ready to plug and olay role). So for $3M we get 8/6 and for $27M we get 14.7/4.3.

It's a simplification of contribution, but it does tell a tale of value for money. Thankfully Vassell's contract descends in terms of percentage of cap over time. But with cap realities what they are now, evaluations can be harsh, and he has not been the same guy of a couple of years ago.

I think the expectation was that coming through the summer and into the season healthy would result in some uptick - efficiency, production, assertiveness... But so far what's been confirmed is Devin is who he is now. Not a guy who will give you an aggressive downhill game - his FTAs have been consistently low since he got to the league. He can drive through contact, just doesn't like to.

Still over dribbles and takes too long to make decisions with the ball in his hands, still fantastically unclutch, with some good D and spots of standout games. For $27M.

Payton Pritchard extended for $7.5M average and produces 15/4/5 as starter this season despite absolutely sucking from 3 at 22.4%, an anomaly from his career high 30s to low 40s percentage production from the arc. You expect that to return to the mean. He's dropped in overall efficiency in a bigger role and as starter, not unexpected of an adjustment.

Is Devin $20M more of a defender? He's too costly for a bench role but is producing like he's coming off the bench. Last season, Pritchard produced 14.3/3.8/3.5 on 47.2%FG and a scorching 40.7% from 3. He's consistent at a higher level than Devin throughout his career. Different role and expectations and level of talent through the years? Sure. But then Devin has not had this much talent around him and still plays the same too unsure too slow too inconsistent game. Unless proven otherwise, he is who he is. Do we live with it and shoehorn him at the 2, pushing Castle to the 3 or do we package him for a starting level 3 to balance out the roster?

I think we do the former. As this young season has shown, guard depth can get depleted quickly. Whether or not we should is largely up to Devin. He must level up as the last two draftees are at his heels. Maybe that pressure is affecting him which is itself telling. But we have signs of more of the same or worse on O with better D than when he was showcasing his O. We have to decide who we go forward with long term, and whether the role and production for contract value makes sense.

[Rustyman]

Ok. So Champagnie's no pressure pre-season shooting highs have fallen off a cliff. Yes he's a great contract - for a bench guy who can focus on the specific role he has, get open, shoot 3s, and an occasional cut and rim finish. And as a starter with a career high 29.9 minutes per game he's still giving bench production with 8.4/6.1/1.6 on career low 40.4%FG and career low 32.2% from 3 and career low 64.7% FTs.

He's not a starter and is in the too big shoes to fill position by default. Why he's in games late when we need stops is baffling, too, but once Fox returns, odds are that Champagnie goes to the bench.

Okay, a massive post so I will respond to one piece at a time.

With Champagnie, I think his shooting splits will recover. However, I remain he is a crucial rotation/bench player as he is one of the only semi-consistent 3-point shooters the Spurs have. I actually think he will be better off the bench in a 3&D role and I am quite confident he will become a 10+ year player in that role.

Currently, Champagnie is on a great deal. However, that is due to end either this season or next. I believe that Champagnie is a $10m/year to MLE player, with MLE being realistic if he improves his overall defense and hits around 40% from 3. I think his defense is seen by the coaches as being effective i.e. disciplined and in the past couple of games he has chipped in with rebounds and stops. Lets hope Julian becomes the best player he can be (off the bench) as that should mean that the Spurs are successful.

[Rustyman]

On to Devin. I've long been in his corner. This is the season in which he was coming in healthy, working healthy all summer for a ramped up year. And yet in career high 34.2 minutes per game, so far he has averaged the second lowest FG% since his rookie year at 41.3%, consistent mid-30s percentage from 3 now at 35.4% on career high 8 attempts per game, career low 62.5%FTs on a mere 1.3 attempts per game, 4.3 boards, 2.3 assists, and 14.7PPG, lowest since his sophomore season. Better defender than JC.

But in terms of the juice for the squeeze, he has either dropped or stayed the same across the board in the stated categories. The best season was 23/24 when he produced 19.5/3.8/4.1. He was extended coming into that season. And has dropped off since. The most games he's played was 71 in his second season. Rookie, 62, then 38, 68 (this is 23/24), 64.

.... Unless proven otherwise, HE IS WHO HE IS . Do we live with it and shoehorn him at the 2, pushing Castle to the 3 or do we package him for a starting level 3 to balance out the roster?

The Spurs are lucky in that they only have 2 what can be called "bad" contracts on the books. One is Keldon at $20m/yr and I can live with that for another couple of seasons due to his willingness to work and do whatever the team needs.

The second is Devin and I think this is unequivocally a bad contract/overpay. Devin is in his 6th year. He is who he is. A streaky shooter who can, when motivated play D. However, players in his role should be earning the MLE, not almost $27m/year. He has never really taken the step up into being elite at anything and he is never likely to make an All Star game. That is why I highlighted your original message above. He is not going to change much. Now Keldon, has try to reinvent himself 3 times to fit into the team. That deserves a longer leash.

Now I want the Spurs to do well and Devin to become more consistent but that is simply so that he becomes tradeable mid-season. I want two players for his money. A proven 3&D guy at the MLE and a young center to backup Kornet as Biyombo seems to be done. Devin unfortunately thinks he can and should be more than a 3&D player but that is what he is and by trying to prove he can do more, he hurts the Spurs.

Six years is enough to end the Devin experiment.

[G R E Y]

With Wemby, one thing he can do to immediately help himself is stop and pop when defenders slide into his driving space. Easier said than done when it comes to adjusting momentum, but he's smart enough to know defenses are seeking the charge when he's coming downhill.

He has that diagonal off glass touch and I'd rather he use it than try for the Giannis type of barrelling through defenders. More often than not he gets called for the charge.

Vassell. This is both a him issue and a coaching issue. We have to have a tougher decision maker late in games. Vassell is not a dog. He is a try hard and forces shots and drives, both of which were on full display last game. Can anyone remember when he made a clutch shot that swayed the game? I'll settle for an end of Q make. He's a known misser in these situations. Why is he in games late? As rusty said, we know what kind of player he is. Both the years of experience and the numbers show it.

This brings me to Mitch rotations. At this point, I'd swap Julian for Vassell at the starting 3. We can't be too concerned with optics of a $27M bench player unless it hurts trade return. At least don't have him **** finishing games or taking shots like it doesn't matter which of our players takes them. It does. Pop benched DeRozan late in games for defensive purposes. Vassell can sit for O purposes.

Another coaching/roster issue is setting up Wemby. How is it that Keldon now passes ahead quickly to teammates but Vassell has to **** dribble up the ball, then take his sweet ass time deciding what to run as defenses set up?

Teamwise, if we have guys who do not understand how to set Wemby up quickly and well, get guys who can. Dylan is already great at it. Castle and Wemby have a good chemistry. Fox has to show he can get Wemby quick good easy touches. None of this your turn my turn ****. Wemby is the cog around which the wheel turns. Our system must have him at its core, not this everyone is equal to shoot stuff. If anything, that type of strategy has to have better shooters/finishers (I'd rather Keldon drive than Vassell late in games, for example).

We are not running a system in which we are optimizing the sum of our parts. Too much taking turns of individual play. We were better at this earlier in the season and it took all of five games for teams to adjust. Somehow we know how to run alley oops for Luke but forget with Wemby? But even last game where we had a bigs advantage Luke was an afterthought, too.

I'd like Wemby and Luke to use a two man high low game more, and I'd like us to run more sets and movement rather than screen, one pass, ISO. Ball movement. Off ball movement. Wemby-out focus.

We may have caught some teams unawares earlier and beaten lesser teams with talent but that still puts us middle of the pack at best with needing to over rely on Wemby's talent while not setting him up to utilize it fully.

PATFO - we have two starters in Vassell and Barnes that do not start on elite teams. We need 3 and 4 positional talent upgrades. I like Barnes. Great vet, ever ready, problem and drama free. I'd even try him at the 3 and put Sochan next to Wemby.

Vassell at the 3 and Fox off ball is not it. We did better with Vassell at 2 and Julian at 3.

Part of me knows we have a ways to go to be elite, but when your superstar is on his rookie contract and has shown freakish upgrades to his game, the future is now. We don't have to break the asset bank, but we shouldn't stand pat with this roster either.

[Ballings7]

I like Vassell for the most part, but he should go back to being a 3/D guy who can score opportunistically and selectively, like his first 2-3 seasons. He came in known for his defense, hustle, and shooting, with some ability to handle the ball and make plays. I liked him more in that role.

He is also definitely a two guard, who can play the three in smaller/positionless line ups.. like I've said over the last year, he is not a big wing or SF, and having him there would create a standing flaw due to usually being a smaller wing. He's playing there and starting, based on his draft rank and the scoring ability he showed when the team had less expectations.

I agree with the Champegnie switch out currently, as he is more of an SF and bigger wing than Vassell, and also defers more offensively naturally.

Overall I still see Vassell getting dealt within the next year or so (probably summer, if not in the season). Team is changing significantly and his game either has to scale down or be fitted elsewhere in the league.

And, Champegnie of course is not the answer as a starting/finishing SF, but in the short-term he is a better gap filler until probably Carter Bryant is ready, or someone else perhaps. I still believe Carter Bryant probably turn out to be that guy at SF in the next 2 years. He needs to keep getting some regular game minutes on a semi-regular basis.

I think Fox and Wemby, and Fox w/ rest of team, just have to get more time together, to get a rhythm and some chemistry. I believe that comes in time.

Also Dylan Harper coming back will change things greatly, and Fox will have the ball less than he does now, same with Vassell. I forsee Harper taking the Ginobili role for now, like he basically has thus far. He also plays a decent amount like him too : )

[imagump1313]

I am in total agreement that Vassell should come off the bench. He can score but when he is on the floor with Wemby and dominating the ball and shots then Wemby becomes a spectator like everyone else and its just a waste of Wemby's minutes.

We have to realize that we cannot waste one minute of Wemby's time on the floor. We are an entirely different team when he's on the bench. I honestly dont think this team could win 20 games in an entire season without Wemby and thats part of the problem. We need to have a roster that could be a playoff team without Wemby. Then strive for championships when he is playing. We are nowhere close to that.

Predictably, I am dead set against replacing Vassell in the lineup with Champaigne. What are we, trying to make the lottery again???? Who is the top prospect this year? I would rather see Bryant out there making rookie mistakes than Champaigne making more of the exact same mistakes he is known for. We arent winning anything this year anyway at this rate so go for it. Bryant's athleticism and defense is something we need more of.

If not Bryant, I would rather see Johnson start. At least he has figured out how to share the ball. Vassell could be useful as a prime bench scorer and not have to depend on him when it counts. We need to compliment Wemby's game and Johnson does that better than Vassell.

[Ballings7]

I am in total agreement that Vassell should come off the bench. He can score but when he is on the floor with Wemby and dominating the ball and shots then Wemby becomes a spectator like everyone else and its just a waste of Wemby's minutes.

We have to realize that we cannot waste one minute of Wemby's time on the floor. We are an entirely different team when he's on the bench. I honestly dont think this team could win 20 games in an entire season without Wemby and thats part of the problem. We need to have a roster that could be a playoff team without Wemby. Then strive for championships when he is playing. We are nowhere close to that.

Predictably, I am dead set against replacing Vassell in the lineup with Champaigne. What are we, trying to make the lottery again???? Who is the top prospect this year? I would rather see Bryant out there making rookie mistakes than Champaigne making more of the exact same mistakes he is known for. We arent winning anything this year anyway at this rate so go for it. Bryant's athleticism and defense is something we need more of.

If not Bryant, I would rather see Johnson start. At least he has figured out how to share the ball. Vassell could be useful as a prime bench scorer and not have to depend on him when it counts. We need to compliment Wemby's game and Johnson does that better than Vassell.

Agree on Bryant, just don't think its realistic in normal circumstances this season, per the coaching staff. Bryant has shown enough flashes IMO to get a chance, though.

Also good point on Keldon.. I think he recognizes well consistently, that he isn't going to be on an all-star path (on this team, he could on a different team) the last couple seasons or so, and respects the team's approach in that. I think it'd be good to see him in the starting line-up at some point.. he's already been finishing games. SF of the future? I don't think so, but overall most fitting option on the roster right now.