EDIT to add: If things stay as they are, we have a 77.6% chance at #11, 12.6% chance of slipping to #12, and 0.4% of #13. Slim chances of moving up without a trade - 2% chance at #1, 2.2% chance at #2, 2.4% chance at #3, and 2.8% chance at #4 (http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds).
These are preliminary thoughts. More details about each prospect to follow. Mocks are all over the place in terms of who gets selected where, and it's even less clear without a true game changer that has separated himself.
In terms of who I'd like for us to draft, Deni Avdija fits our style of play and positional need. I love his motor and competitive fight - some things you can't teach. Good size and build for SF at 6'9". Smart player. Age at 19 is a plus. Shooting percentages stand out not in a good way. Not sure about his defense / movement on that end. Unless we get a lucky bounce with the lotto balls, he'll most likely be out of our range.
gump really likes Obi Toppin, and he has a lot of tantalizing tools - a 6'9" powerful physical presence, big hops, versatile O game - inside, outside, drives. His age at 22 and noted weaknesses on defensive end work against him. He's mostly a PF, yes? (I've seen him listed as a 3 on some mocks. Grew, I've read, 4 to 6 inches in HS where he was a G). So position of need, and at 4 complementary piece to Luka's build and skill set. May not be available at our projected range.
I really like Devin Vassell (listed as 6'6" without shoes, 6'7" with shoes) as a 3+D and good in transition. Plays the 2 from what I've seen. We have a couple of 2/3 guys and he'd need to be more 3 for us. Love his outside shot - high release, and activity on D. Very smooth looking game. If he plays the 3 will need to develop more driving moves. Great at well timed blocks and crafty steals already. Good age - 19. Frame will need strengthening. Lanky, coordinated, relentless. Great motor. Smart. More polished game than Patrick Williams.
I also like Patrick Williams. Really young at 18, but has a solid, thick body and an imposing physical presence with his 6'8" frame and tree trunk legs. Projected as a 4, but I've seen him listed as a 3 as well. So 3/4. May not be quick enough as a 3, not sure of his transition game. Very solid blocker, makes each one look 'big'. Reads them well and covers ground to get to it. Lots of hustle. Vassell looks taller because of his lankier frame. Williams is a lion to Vassell's cheetah. Both are really versatile. Williams as an off the bench college player is more of a project. I wonder if both are available which we'd choose?
gump favours Cassius Winston. Terrific scorer, can score multiple ways, great 3 shot, good decision maker with the ball, finds pockets of space well, really good vision and passing. Smart. Always active with the ball to pressure defenders. Like gump said, a true PG. No idea about his defense, though at 6'1" is at a disadvantage physically. Same height as Patty, looks to have a smaller stature. At 22, already older than several of our younger core. But then again, so was Quinn when we drafted him.
We may potentially lose three guards in Bryn, Beli and DeMar, and even if it's likely that Bryn stays, highly likely Beli leaves, and DD I think likely, we need to fill these with 3&D at the very least. With the potential of losing two rotation players, we've reached out to Trevelin Queen:
Of course, even as each of Beli and DD are 2/3 each has a different role. We've been going for active, skilled, two-way players who can shoot the 3.
Queen is a 6-6, guard/wing player and 190 lbs. He helped New Mexico State win its second-straight regular-season title and third-straight WAC Tournament title.
In the 2018-19 season, he averaged 13.2 points per game, 2.4 assists, 47 percent shooting and 5.2 rebounds. He's described as an explosive player and capable of playing both ends of the court.
Lonnie and KJ are 2/3 as well, and with KJ surely moving up to the Spurs for next season, we're doing homework with stocking up those positions in Austin and see what he can do to move up. Hits the 3, at a decent-not-great rate with what looks like a push-motion, lower release point the farther he is away. He's 23.
I also like Leandro Bolmaro as a second round choice, but he seems to be moving his way up and may not be available with our selection. He's a 6'7" SG, 19, not a leaping athlete or possessing a standout frame (6'8" wingspan), but very crafty and assertive in scoring. Has great anticipation in seeing/reading plays, and very good vision leading to terrific passing. High IQ. Not a good 3 shooter. Solid defender.
Hunch: Whoever drafts Tyrese Haliburton will be very happy with him long-term. I think he'll end up separating himself from several others in a PG-heavy draft.