Draft Lottery 2025 Tonight @ 7pm TSN

[SirKen]

This.

Do people not understand statistics?

To work backwards and re-create a specific outcome is going to look like astronomically small odds when you start with a 1.8% chance winning.

That's the hard part, but it's a possibility. We only had what? 5x the chance (or 6% more). Would it be rigged if we won? Collectively there was a ~15% chance that we were getting jumped by at least two teams above us in the standings.

Do people not understand how billion dollar businesses work?

The probability of the order of 3 teams being anything like WAS, UTA, CHA was a BIG FAT ZERO, does not matter what the math tells you. Talk about math focused stats people missing the context again...

The post below put it perfectly.
viewtopic.php?p=118539730#p118539730

So you're just saying it's rigged and the odds don't matter, right?
I wouldn't put it past them and this year's results def look sus AF.

Yes and they don't have to rig all the small things all the time, right? It is likely that they would intervene whenever there is a big risk or a massive profit opportunity for the league.

Just "follow the money"

[ontnut]

Do people not understand how billion dollar businesses work?

The probability of the order of 3 teams being anything like WAS, UTA, CHA was a BIG FAT ZERO, does not matter what the math tells you. Talk about math focused stats people missing the context again...

The post below put it perfectly.
viewtopic.php?p=118539730#p118539730

So you're just saying it's rigged and the odds don't matter, right?
I wouldn't put it past them and this year's results def look sus AF.

Yes and they don't have to rig all the small things all the time, right? It is likely that they would intervene whenever there is a big risk or a massive profit opportunity for the league.

Just "follow the money"

I don't doubt there's some shady ish going on behind the scenes. Every massive corp like the NBA has shady practices, past and present, that's for sure.

[Potential]

Read on Twitter

https://www.thestar.com/sports/raptors/it-turns-out-the-raptors-came-achingly-close-to-moving-into-top-four-of-nba/article_b13991ca-d007-402c-914c-345beab40809.html

[Nebuchadnezzar]

So you're just saying it's rigged and the odds don't matter, right?
I wouldn't put it past them and this year's results def look sus AF.

Yes and they don't have to rig all the small things all the time, right? It is likely that they would intervene whenever there is a big risk or a massive profit opportunity for the league.

Just "follow the money"

I don't doubt there's some shady ish going on behind the scenes. Every massive corp like the NBA has shady practices, past and present, that's for sure.

Okay, so if its rigged we should never tank again because we don't have a shot at a top pick.

[Pointgod]

Read on Twitter

https://www.thestar.com/sports/raptors/it-turns-out-the-raptors-came-achingly-close-to-moving-into-top-four-of-nba/article_b13991ca-d007-402c-914c-345beab40809.html

OMG its so rigged!

[DelAbbot]

If the outcome (worst team picks 5th, 7th worst picks 9th) was known and predetermined before the season, then I would say it's better to pick 9th because the cost of going from 7th worst to THE worst record is not worth the gain from 9th pick to 5th pick. It's exponentially harder to tank for THE worst.

But this single outcome doesn't represent the actual distribution of outcomes / probabilities of draft lottery. So I would support tanking as much as we can - which Masai did not do since our record at 8-31.

glad to have you on board team compete!!!

We TWO are just the enlightened form of team compete - aka team championship

[PushDaRock]

If the outcome (worst team picks 5th, 7th worst picks 9th) was known and predetermined before the season, then I would say it's better to pick 9th because the cost of going from 7th worst to THE worst record is not worth the gain from 9th pick to 5th pick. It's exponentially harder to tank for THE worst.

But this single outcome doesn't represent the actual distribution of outcomes / probabilities of draft lottery. So I would support tanking as much as we can - which Masai did not do since our record at 8-31.

glad to have you on board team compete!!!

We TWO are just the enlightened form of team compete - aka team championship

I hope to find enlightenment one day

[Raps in 4]

But its not gonna happen because Cooper Flagg is the best player in this draft.

We don't know that.

Its not even close. Hasnt been for years. He's the best player in this draft, next draft, the year before this draft. He was supposed to be in next years class with Dybansta, Peterson, Boozer etc. and was the best in that class reclassified to this class a year younger and is still the best. Dallas gets him because Mark Cuban sold, they gave Luka to LA and this is how the NBA works.

And Andrew Wiggins was supposed to be the best prospect since LeBron. Highly touted prospects not panning out isn't exactly uncommon.

[sidsid]

Final tally of the Jak trade:

- played us out of the top 5 lottery slot in the Wemby draft
- lost the following draft's number 7 pick (or 2 future Minny lottery picks/swaps)
- played us out of a top 5 pick slot in this draft (where 2 of the top 5 moved up/stayed top 5).
- throw in some seconds for good measure

= 1 play-in loss to the Bulls on a team that had no chance of advancing past the 1st round anyway.

Bonus: you get to watch what could have been on the Spurs for the next decade plus

A top 2 all-time disaster only in contention with Tmac leaving in free agency.

[Raps in 4]

Final tally of the Jak trade:

- played us out of the top 5 lottery slot in the Wemby draft
- lost the following draft's number 7 pick (or 2 future Minny lottery picks/swaps)
- played us out of a top 5 pick slot in this draft (where 2 of the top 5 moved up/stayed top 5).
- throw in some seconds for good measure

= 1 play-in loss to the Bulls on a team that had no chance of advancing past the 1st round anyway.

Bonus: you get to watch what could have been on the Spurs for the next decade plus

A top 2 all-time disaster only in contention with Tmac leaving in free agency.

Definitely one of the worst moves Masai has made in his 12 years here.

[Pointgod]

I'm not sure why this would be the case. Would you rather be the Jazz, who tanked and didn't make the playoffs and ended up with the 5th pick, or the Raptors, who also tanked (not hard enough) and didn't make the playoffs and have the 9th pick?

And there's your answer to the dissuasion question.

If the outcome (worst team picks 5th, 7th worst picks 9th) was known and predetermined before the season, then I would say it's better to pick 9th because the cost of going from 7th worst to THE worst record is not worth the gain from 9th pick to 5th pick. It's exponentially harder to tank for THE worst.

But this single outcome doesn't represent the actual distribution of outcomes / probabilities of draft lottery. So I would support tanking as much as we can - which Masai did not do since our record at 8-31.

I think this is technically correct. The odds are the odds, and you're better of if you're finishing last, but then I do think it's also worth factoring in the percentage chance of dropping like Washington, Utah and New Orleans did and what that may require doing to your roster to ensure you finish in the bottom 3 or 4. Washington will be back again, but Utah is going to have both Markkanen and Collins (after picking up his player option and aiming for a new contract) wanting to play next year and not tank again.

If nothing else it feels better to see the results of it play out with Utah having lost their best chance of getting a more surefire prospect (unless the draft gods smile on them next year from a different slot).

The argument for tanking is that it protects the downside risk from your worst case scenario. Both Jazz and Wizards worst case scenario was 5 and 6 which happened. Our worst case scenario wasn’t 9, it was actually 11. That’s a 5-6 pick difference between our teams. In the two previous years Jazz had the 10th and 9th picks which is why it made sense to tank this season. Wizards had the 2 pick last year but the two previous years they had the 8th, 10th and 15th picks.

You can argue both teams had to tank this year because they botched the tank in previous years and for the Jazz this year was their best finish while for the Wizards this year was the second best finish over the past 5 years.

[DelAbbot]

Final tally of the Jak trade:

- played us out of the top 5 lottery slot in the Wemby draft
- lost the following draft's number 7 pick (or 2 future Minny lottery picks/swaps)
- played us out of a top 5 pick slot in this draft (where 2 of the top 5 moved up/stayed top 5).
- throw in some seconds for good measure

= 1 play-in loss to the Bulls on a team that had no chance of advancing past the 1st round anyway.

Bonus: you get to watch what could have been on the Spurs for the next decade plus

A top 2 all-time disaster only in contention with Tmac leaving in free agency.

Definitely one of the worst moves Masai has made in his 12 years here.

The Jak move is hard to criticize because it improved our floor, and thus hurt our ceiling.

For the casuals (thus financial bottom line), the team's performance floor is more relevant.

[OhCanada]

We don't know that.

Its not even close. Hasnt been for years. He's the best player in this draft, next draft, the year before this draft. He was supposed to be in next years class with Dybansta, Peterson, Boozer etc. and was the best in that class reclassified to this class a year younger and is still the best. Dallas gets him because Mark Cuban sold, they gave Luka to LA and this is how the NBA works.

And Andrew Wiggins was supposed to be the best prospect since LeBron. Highly touted prospects not panning out isn't exactly uncommon.

Andrew Wiggins was never as good as Cooper Flagg is right now.