NBA Win Totals (Raptors at 34.5)

[Ell Curry]

I think Raptors over is an okay bet at 34.5, but we'll probably need to play Quickley a ton of minutes (there's just no real evidence Shead is a legit backup PG yes and his college numbers suggest no) and Poeltl will have to stay healthy.

We don't have the offensive creator (every team in the top 18 on O except Sacramento and Houston) or 5 out system (San Antonio got to 19th by only having Sochan as a non-shooter in the rotation) or passing/skilled center (Sabonis and Sengun are point center types so it draws out the opposing center a fair bit) you need to be a top 20 offence, but we should be solid defensively and if Ingram and Quickley are healthy we can hang around the low 20s on O, which is around 34 win pace, but we can be a better than average defence, and so win high 30s or even creep up to 40 if everyone is healthy (which for Ingram is like 65 games).

Injuries are so much of this, but apart from Poeltl and Quickley we have okay depth, like when Ingram is out, Poeltl-Barnes-Barrett-Agbaji-Quickley isn't anything to get excited about, but it's also a passable low 30s win team, I'd guess we can go like 25-30 in 55 Ingram games and say 11-16 in games where he is out and get to 37 as we chase a play-in spot. Look to draft a backup PG or backup Center I guess?

I found this depressing. We need a Haliburton/Brunson/Lowry/Booker/DonovanMitchell mini-miracle at guard via trade or the late lottery, though it is possible as those guys all being picked after 10 and only Booker staying on his original team shows.

[YogurtProducer]

We have a injury risk roster....So there are reasons to believe we under achieve again next season.....Even Barnes hasn't been the healthiest since his rookie season.....We are a Yak/Ingram injury away from having really bad few weeks without them to be back in the tanking ranges....

With a healthy and all things go well season....We will prolly be in that 40-44 win range....But its a big if with the injury history of a few guys....

barnes played 65, rj 58, jakob 57, quickley 33, ingram 0, dick 54, etcetc

and we still won 30 games. remember all those ethical tanking losses, imagine just filliping half of them gets us past the line.

Yeah but any injury to Ingram/Yak even Barnes for a chunk of games could lower our record dramatically.....We would need a long stretch of good health with our main guys for us in the 40-44 wins area.....Any set backs to some key players we are in the 35 win area....I would not be shocked if it goes either way personally.....Ofc id hope for all things to go perfect and we in the 40s win area but if we end up in the 30s again i won't be totally shocked considering the injury history.

I think we are better equipped to handle injuries this year than last

[CPT]

Agree that we’re reasonably well set up to manage injuries at the 2/3/4, but if Quick or Poeltl go down for any significant amount of time, I’d be pretty nervous about getting to 35.

[ontnut]

I don't gamble but it always struck me as stupid that people bet on over/unders for 8 months down the line and just hand their money over interest free for that period. Anyway easy over.

In theory, if it's a "no-brainer" bet, 8 months to bring back a 90% return is better than any interest you're getting on any investment.
Of course there's the chance of zero-ing out, but using "interest-free" isn't the right argument in this case against this bet imo.

In theory, you may think your bets are 90%ers but you know that isn’t reality so even if you are a very good gambler you are dealing with small margins. If you really believed in the Raptors going over and that the betting market way undervalued them, you would be way better of this betting them in individual games early in the season and getting an immediate return. But again I don’t gamble so I am probably missing something.

Individual games are a different story as it's a 1v1 sudden death matchup, anything can happen. Season long bets have less variance overall. Early season games are also super high variance because teams are just getting used to new rosters, new coaches, new systems etc. The mid-season is where you can really sink your teeth in. Yes the odds get tighter, but for a "pro" bettor, that's the meat and potatoes because you have more info to go off of. (I'm not a pro bettor, but I am pretty solid overall on the pre-season bets, which are my favs).

For me, the off-season bets are among the higher value bets you can place all season long. The odds aren't quite set yet, the general public hasn't skewed everything too heavily to favourites, etc. Like last June I was able to snag OKC to win the Chip at 10:1 odds. They were my outright favs and I had no idea why Vegas was giving 10:1. They corrected that really quick. I did lose bets on BOS to win the East, and exact finals matchup being OKC vs. BOS. Won both Stephon Castle ROY (my only ROY candidate) and Pritchard as 6th man, along with Shai MVP. The only player award I missed was Jalen Johnson for MIP - and I think he'd have a chance if he was healthy. (I didn't have a DPOY bet). I had Thibs for COTY, then backed it later with Bickerstaff - both losers. I had some bad losses too though, taking OKC to win the finals in 4 or 5 games - which I think was public sentiment overall - I just couldn't convince myself on the IND Cinderella story.

Financial advise wise, you're better putting your $ in something like the SPY long run or some sort of diversified portfolio. Sure. But if you've got a couple bucks to spare to play for fun, and aren't the gambler that plays like 500+ bets a season with a system to mitigate variance...the season O/U bets are about the best value you can get - esp as a sports fan msg board guy like me who spends WAY too much time analyzing/debating the team lol.

[ontnut]

I'd guess we can go like 25-30 in 55 Ingram games and say 11-16 in games where he is out .

If we're a 45% win team with Ingram (37 wins), and 40.7% without him (33.5 wins), I'd think we'd have some real big problems.
We got 33 games out of Quickley last year. Even if he only plays 50% more, plus 55 Ingram games, plus CMB addition alone - I can't see that being worth less than 5 wins from this past season. Tack on another year of development from all the young guys, plus not trying to tank for half the season (because of injuries possibly)...I think we're above this win total just as a floor.

For the East as a whole, BOS, IND, MIL all seemingly take a major step back this year, which means more wins available. I think ATL and ORL got better for sure, but who else is taking those wins those top 3 teams are projected to lose? PHI and CHA are two teams that might take the leap, but in that same regard, I think DET is also a candidate to regress. NYK should repeat last year's performance. There are extra wins to be had in the East compared to last year, just off the strength of competition imo (nevermind two of the biggest fallers in the league, BOS and BKN are in our division). There's a not-crazy possibility that TOR finishes 2nd in the Atlantic division this season.

[metafisical]

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2396356

That was win totals from last summer. They were pretty much bang on for the Raps.

[causal_fan]

I am hoping for over because the weak east but given the last few seasons I have no confidence.

[Tripod]

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2396356

That was win totals from last summer. They were pretty much bang on for the Raps.

All it took was the Raps tanking, playing gleaguers and 10 days in crunch time, and a crazy amount of injuries.

We are going to sail past this year's prediction

[Tofubeque]

The Raptors winning only 4 more games with Ingram, no tank, and an East with no Tatum Lillard or Haliburton seems difficult to believe.

I’ll never forget how shamelessly they were fixing games by pulling starters in the 4th, Chicago black sox stuff. Seemingly nobody in the basketball world even noticed except Raptors fans.

[YogurtProducer]

Agree that we’re reasonably well set up to manage injuries at the 2/3/4, but if Quick or Poeltl go down for any significant amount of time, I’d be pretty nervous about getting to 35.

We went 21-36 with Jak and 9-16 without. So not as noticeable as you’d think (granted - SOS not accounted for)

[YogurtProducer]

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2396356

That was win totals from last summer. They were pretty much bang on for the Raps.

All it took was the Raps tanking, playing gleaguers and 10 days in crunch time, and a crazy amount of injuries.

We are going to sail past this year's prediction

Yeah if anything last years predictions were incredibly inaccurate considering how much it took to get there.

The only way we hit the under is significant injuries. There is zero chance we do if healthy

[dandaman]

Ngl I am a little surprised Vegas has us winning around 34 games, they are usual spot on with this stuff, I am not dumb enough to think we are gonna win 45+ games like some homers on here but dang they have us finishing outside playin? i thought they would have us around 40 wins, I trust vegas more then any expert they analyze this ish down to the last decimal, maybe they think most of our wins after all star game were mostly fake wins, which to an extent i agree with

[causal_fan]

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2396356

That was win totals from last summer. They were pretty much bang on for the Raps.

All it took was the Raps tanking, playing gleaguers and 10 days in crunch time, and a crazy amount of injuries.

We are going to sail past this year's prediction

Yeah if anything last years predictions were incredibly inaccurate considering how much it took to get there.

The only way we hit the under is significant injuries. There is zero chance we do if healthy

So Vegas was spot on but wildly inaccurate - That's Trumpian reasoning - well done sir!

[Tripod]

All it took was the Raps tanking, playing gleaguers and 10 days in crunch time, and a crazy amount of injuries.

We are going to sail past this year's prediction

Yeah if anything last years predictions were incredibly inaccurate considering how much it took to get there.

The only way we hit the under is significant injuries. There is zero chance we do if healthy

So Vegas was spot on but wildly inaccurate - That's Trumpian reasoning - well done sir!

Because context matters. They had the Raps pegged at that number expecting the Raps to be trying for wins most of the season and reasonable health.

We had to jump thru hoops to only win 30. Easily could have been 35-40.

[causal_fan]

Yeah if anything last years predictions were incredibly inaccurate considering how much it took to get there.

The only way we hit the under is significant injuries. There is zero chance we do if healthy

So Vegas was spot on but wildly inaccurate - That's Trumpian reasoning - well done sir!

Because context matters. They had the Raps pegged at that number expecting the Raps to be trying for wins most of the season and reasonable health.

We had to jump thru hoops to only win 30. Easily could have been 35-40.

Not true - the entire Raptors organization indicated it was going to be a "development year" and so tanking was expected - to not think the raptors were not tanking last year was to be clueless.

[JB7]

I just want to know, who are the 7 people who voted under?

[YogurtProducer]

So Vegas was spot on but wildly inaccurate - That's Trumpian reasoning - well done sir!

Because context matters. They had the Raps pegged at that number expecting the Raps to be trying for wins most of the season and reasonable health.

We had to jump thru hoops to only win 30. Easily could have been 35-40.

Not true - the entire Raptors organization indicated it was going to be a "development year" and so tanking was expected - to not think the raptors were not tanking last year was to be clueless.

It was quite clear we weren’t tanking outright until about game 60 or so.

Before that we just had insanely bad injury luck.

Pretty sure Vegas didn’t consider we would miss IQ for 50 games, and every other starter 24+ games.

Besides - Vegas sets the line where they think people will equally bet under and over, NOT where they think a team will actually finish. It’s different.

If 90% of people all hit torontos over today, the line would be 38.5 or 40.5 by tomorrow.

[YogurtProducer]

I just want to know, who are the 7 people who voted under?

Scase and 6 burner accounts

[navyblue]

I just want to know, who are the 7 people who voted under?

Scase and 6 burner accounts

Lol

[artsncrafts]

35...maybe