Points Above Average

[supersub15]

A dude on the APBRMetric board created a formula to evaluate players
total points created above league average. He the took total points and subtracted what the average player would score based on TS%. This is the formula:

PlayerPoints - (LgTs%*(2* (PlayerFGA+.44*FTA)))

It was pointed out that you can't compare all players equally, i.e. you can't compare Lebron and his 22 FGA per game with Michael Ruffin with his 0.81 FGA per game. I consequently separated several FGA ranges with average LgTS% at each range. This is the equivalent for scoring points, like positions (or height) is for rebounds. And Lebron would be compared with scorers in his range:

I understand that my classification is arbitrary and can probably be tweaked, but at least it's a start.

Group 1 - 15.00 FGA/G or more: Mostly all-stars or first option on teams
Group 2 - 12.00 - 14.99 FGA/G: Mostly second banana (could be first option in certain systems)
Group 3 - 9.00 - 11.99: Third option on the floor
Group 4 - 6.00 - 8.99: Fourth option on the floor
Group 5 - 3.00 - 5.99 - Bench player (or fifth option on the floor)
Group 6 - 0.00 - 2.99 - Scrub and back-end of rotation player

Group 1: Average TS% = 0.547 (36 players)
Top 5:

Code: Select all

Player                PAA
Kevin Martin         79.05
Yao Ming             60.63
Chris Bosh           55.79
Dirk Nowitzki        53.09
Richard Jefferson    44.24
Kobe Bryant          41.26

Bottom 5:

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Player                PAA
Tracy McGrady       -50.82
Jamal Crawford      -54.29
Antawn Jamison      -57.4
Joe Johnson         -64.73
Kevin Durant        -91.28

Group 2: Average TS% = 0.568 (31 players)
Top 5:

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Player                PAA
Amare Stoudemire     124.8
Steve Nash            96.29
Dwight Howard         96.2
Mike Miller           80.38
Deron Williams        52.26

Bottom 5:

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Player                PAA
Ricky Davis         -61.8
Zach Randolph       -77.78
Jermaine O'Neal     -79.01
Kirk Hinrich        -83.65
Josh Smith          -84.83

Group 3: Average TS% = 0.538 (44 players)
Top 5:

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Player                PAA
Chauncey Billups    112.9
Jose Calderon        77.41
John Salmons         57.69
Jason Terry          57.65
Derek Fisher         55.78

Bottom 5:

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Player                PAA
Jason Kidd          -63.11
Rafer Alston        -64.49
Larry Hughes        -76.52
Sebastian Telfair   -78.7
Jamaal Tinsley      -82.11

Group 4: Average TS% = 0.529 (92 players)
Top 5:

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Player                PAA
Andrew Bynum         90.56
Josh Childress       86.08
Andris Biedrins      85.92
Tyson Chandler       84.41
Daniel Gibson        77.06

Bottom 5:

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Player                PAA
Damien Wilkins      -48.87
Antoine Walker      -49.23
Charlie Bell        -59.48
Sasha Pavlovic      -67.4
Quentin Richardson  -74.85

Group 5: Average TS% = 0.511 (112 players)
Top 5:

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Player                PAA
James Jones          73.12
Kendrick Perkins     55.34
Sasha Vujacic        47.48
Brent Barry          46.46
Keyon Dooling        45.77

Bottom 5:

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Player                PAA
Jason Hart          -33.15
Tyrus Thomas        -33.33
Acie Law            -35.46
Corey Brewer        -66.48
Ben Wallace         -68.26

Group 6: Average TS% = 0.474 (119 players)
Top 5:

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Player                PAA
Glen Davis           38.41
DeSagana Diop        26.57
J.J. Redick          17.18
Arron Afflalo        16.01
Bobby Jones          14.52

Bottom 5:

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Player                PAA
Darrick Martin      -14.39
Jamaal Magloire     -15.4
Jared Jeffries      -17.35
Mardy Collins       -20.47
Malik Rose          -26.18

What do you think?

[kleatius_01]

Very cool! Seems like a lot of work, good job. I would also be interested to see where each raptor player falls within his group.

[cdel00]

Yet another reason why Durrant should NOT be ROY -91 in his group. Yet another reason why Jose is better than Kidd this year.
Yet another reason why Mike Miller would be awesome on the Raps.

[supersub15]

Very cool! Seems like a lot of work, good job. I would also be interested to see where each raptor player falls within his group.

Group 1:
3. Chris Bosh: +55.79 PAA

Group 3:
2. Jose Calderon: +77.41 PAA
10. Anthony Parker: +

[supersub15]

So, basically, we have 8 players above average in their respective groups, with Bosh and Calderon in the elite in their respective groups.

Going by this classification, we don't have a second option. That's why, offensively at least, a Mike Miller makes sense for the Raptors, as he becomes immediately our second option behind Bosh.

[KG1585]

Going by this classification, we don't have a second option. That's why, offensively at least, a Mike Miller makes sense for the Raptors, as he becomes immediately our second option behind Bosh.

We don't have a second option yet, but with TJ healthy, and Bargs starting to play well, one of them could become that second option. Also with this team, its usually Bosh and there is one other player that usually steps on any give game to be a second option.

[gniewek]

Really cool stats, I always love reading them. But i was just wondering who the first option or "group 1" player from phoniex is? It says here than Amare and Nash are both group 2. They are clearly in the top...should one of them be in the first group?

Top 5:
Code:
Player PAA
Amare Stoudemire 124.8
Steve Nash 96.29
Dwight Howard 96.2
Mike Miller 80.38
Deron Williams 52.26

Edit: wouldnt Howard also be the number 1 option in Orlando?

[Hank_Scorpio]

I have no idea what any of that means, but its very impressive.

[ansoncarter]

wow TJ is pretty low. Why is that?

[supersub15]

I have no idea what any of that means, but its very impressive.

It's a way to compare the offense of players with the same status. Let's take Joe Johnson vs. Lebron James. Compared to the average player in their group (TS% of 0.547), Johnson produces -1.5 per game, wheras Lebron produces almost +1 per game. In other words, Lebron is better offensively than your average superstar, whereas Johnson is markedly worse than that same average superstar. You probably knew that already, but stats it's a way to put it in numbers.

Of course, defense does not enter the equation here.

[don't panac]

out of curiosity, if it's not complicated, what would be bargnani's average in the last few games?
assuming that he's going to maintain this level (big assumption) it would indicate his actual level now

[supersub15]

out of curiosity, if it's not complicated, what would be bargnani's average in the last few games?
assuming that he's going to maintain this level (big assumption) it would indicate his actual level now

Good question. For his last 6 games, Bargnani has been +20 compared to his peers (as opposed to -21 right now).