Siegel: Toronto trade intel

[Jerry Lucas]

[.

I like that. Looks like the Rudy Gay trade. Gives us way more depth & experience.

Honestly, I’d rather we got Sabonis + Ellis for IQ/Ochai/Gradey.

That said, in this trade I’d replace saric with Carter, and keep Keon Ellis. We can draft bigs next year, and already have CMB. Monk/Carter/Ellis for IQ.

Your Monk proposal doesn't even work in the trade checker:




The Sabonis one works but the Raptors are still over the tax and you already moved Ochai and Gradey, so there wouldn't be any realistic tax-ducking candidates left (as much as some Raptors fans want Temple to be even though he's Darko's Udonis Haslem). And ownership definitely isn't authorizing Bobby no longer have to duck the tax for Sabonis lol.

[YogurtProducer]

True shooting? .517 for Ellis (his career average is .624) IQ is at .563. We won’t be losing shooting. It’ll just show up differently. We also gain Ellis’ POA defense.

EDIT: Let’s not forget that historically, Sabonis doesn’t shoot 3’s. However, last year he took 2.2 3’s a game - double his career rate and shot .417 from 3. If we’re considering his overall shooting - Sabonis is a true shooting monster with a .615 career average (his past 3 year average is .653) on high usage. Bottom line: nobody is closing out on Jak at the top of the key. They sure AF are closing out on Sabonis.

The types of 3's matter... Ellis is assisted on 95+% of his 3's. IQ is has been assisted on 67% for his career. Not to mention the VAST difference in pretty much everything else IQ vs Ellis.

Ellis IS NOT A POINT GUARD. The guy is an off-ball player. A solid 3+D piece in the Jakobe Walter mold. Not a guy you want to run your offence AT ALL.

Also - no one cares about a guy shooting 2.2 3's per game. The guy is a career 34% from 3 guy. Teams will pretty much let Sabonis fire all game if he wants to.

[Merit]

I like that. Looks like the Rudy Gay trade. Gives us way more depth & experience.

Honestly, I’d rather we got Sabonis + Ellis for IQ/Ochai/Gradey.

That said, in this trade I’d replace saric with Carter, and keep Keon Ellis. We can draft bigs next year, and already have CMB. Monk/Carter/Ellis for IQ.

Your Monk proposal doesn't even work in the trade checker:



The Sabonis one works but the Raptors are still over the tax and you already moved Ochai and Gradey, so there wouldn't be any realistic tax-ducking candidates left (as much as some Raptors fans want Temple to be even though he's Darko's Udonis Haslem). And ownership definitely isn't authorizing Bobby no longer have to duck the tax for Sabonis lol.

I’m not worried about the tax if we get Sabonis. It’s about being a repeater and about the apron.

I didn’t check the monk proposal, but it’s an easy fix.

IQ/Mogbo/AJ Lawson (to get the kings up to 14 contract minimum) for Monk/Carter/Ellis/Saric

[YogurtProducer]

If Rebounding = defense and advanced stats (ie DBPM, DWS) matter then it is a lot closer than you make it.

These are really poor stats for defence.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/u1xfax/in_calculating_dbpm_for_a_center_assists_are/

You can read about it here. Somehow an assist is almost as valuable as a block in DBPM. It tells you NOTHING about a player ability to play defence. DWS is the same. Just useless stuff really.

Sabonis is better than Poeltl in every statistical category outside of block% (due to his trex arms and lack of speed)

His trex arms and lack of speed is exactly why he is a horrible defender.

IT is why is EPM (Still flawed, but certainly a better advanced stat), Sabonis is in the 49th percentile defensively. AKA - he sucks on defence.

Sabonis has also been more durable throughout his career and is a year younger

Uhh they were drafted the same year and Sabonis has played a whopping 41 more games in 10 years. IDK if the extra 4 games a year is even worth mentioning.

Not to mention, Sabonis is currently out because he tore his meniscus in his knee. Slow center. Torn knee. IDK if that is a recipe for succes.

Again, if we can get Sabonis for Poeltl, you insta do it

Sure, if there was a straight swap available. Unfortunately, there is not, because you need to make up $25M or so in salary to get Sabonis.

There is no mystical Jak for Sabonis trade available.

[Merit]

True shooting? .517 for Ellis (his career average is .624) IQ is at .563. We won’t be losing shooting. It’ll just show up differently. We also gain Ellis’ POA defense.

EDIT: Let’s not forget that historically, Sabonis doesn’t shoot 3’s. However, last year he took 2.2 3’s a game - double his career rate and shot .417 from 3. If we’re considering his overall shooting - Sabonis is a true shooting monster with a .615 career average (his past 3 year average is .653) on high usage. Bottom line: nobody is closing out on Jak at the top of the key. They sure AF are closing out on Sabonis.

The types of 3's matter... Ellis is assisted on 95+% of his 3's. IQ is has been assisted on 67% for his career. Not to mention the VAST difference in pretty much everything else IQ vs Ellis.

Ellis IS NOT A POINT GUARD. The guy is an off-ball player. A solid 3+D piece in the Jakobe Walter mold. Not a guy you want to run your offence AT ALL.

Also - no one cares about a guy shooting 2.2 3's per game. The guy is a career 34% from 3 guy. Teams will pretty much let Sabonis fire all game if he wants to.

You’re exaggerating my points.

I didn’t say Ellis was a point guard. I said he would be our POINT OF ATTACK DEFENDER. Scottie or RJ would be our point guard. Saying this for the THIRD TIME and I said this all along.

My point still stands. Nobody is closing out on Jak. They actually have to consider Sabonis shooting in a late game scenario. Like 34% is horrible compared to basically zero, LOL.

The vast difference in IQ vs. Ellis is Ellis superior defense. Again - he’s a SG on offense, “PG” in that he defends the point of attack on defense. It’s really not that hard to understand my guy. It’s literally the same argument I’m making for how I see IQ best utilized. Ellis is effectively IQ not pretending to be a point guard.

[YogurtProducer]

wtf is this ****

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Two guys out of the rotation (1 of whom is gone after this year) and a pick in the 55s for a backup C.

[WiggOuts]

i think id rather keep IQ if the only deal is for Monk, hes not a PG and IQ is clearly better than him. Half a year of Ellis isnt worth it

[ArthurVandelay]

I strongly disagree that Sabonis is bad at Defense.

I actually think he's at least as good as Poeltl plus he is a better rebounder and has better hands.

Well... you can disagree all you like but Sabonis downright bad defensively, whereas Poeltl is good, maybe even great, on that end.

It frankly isn't close.

If Rebounding = defense and advanced stats (ie DBPM, DWS) matter then it is a lot closer than you make it.

Sabonis is better than Poeltl in every statistical category outside of block% (due to his trex arms and lack of speed)

Sabonis has also been more durable throughout his career and is a year younger

Again, if we can get Sabonis for Poeltl, you insta do it

Plus, Sabonis can grab a defensive rebound and push the ball himself. While not a volume 3 point shooter by any means, he can hit it if he is left open. He shot 37/38/42 last 3 seasons on 1-2 attempts per game.

Seeing how Mamu has finally delivered in the stretch big the team has been searching for years and how that opened things up for the offense is interesting. Sabonis isn’t as athletic and won’t (or hasn’t in the past) shot at Mamu’s volume but he does provide the threat, plus he’s a much better rebounder and passer.

The idea of Sabonis has grown on me, but the good thing is the Raptors aren’t in a dire position to do something now. However something will have to be done at some point in the near future. Too much money tied up in average to below average starting PG and C, a bench that can’t shoot with any consistency (besides awful), and no one who can consistently get downhill off the bounce.

[Merit]

wtf is this ****

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Two guys out of the rotation (1 of whom is gone after this year) and a pick in the 55s for a backup C.

It’s a no from me. Ochai for Brook. That’s it, that’s all. No idea if it works in the checker, but we keep Battle. Need him when we trade gradey.

[YogurtProducer]

I didn’t say Ellis was a point guard. I said he would be our POINT OF ATTACK DEFENDER. Scottie or RJ would be our point guard. Saying this for the THIRD TIME and I said this all along.

Neither Scottie or RJ can be your point guard either, ESPECIALLY Barrett. There is a reason why we have moved Scottie off the ball more this year, and why RJ is not imitating plays.

My point still stands. Nobody is closing out on Jak. They actually have to consider Sabonis shooting in a late game scenario. Like 34% is horrible compared to basically zero, LOL.

Okay? Again - there is no ability to just swap Poeltl and Sabonis so the point is meaningless.

And also ignores that in late game teams actually have to consider Poeltls defense as a deterrence, whereas Sabonis' is a point of attack.

The vast difference in IQ vs. Ellis is Ellis superior defense. Again - he’s a SG on offense, “PG” in that he defends the point of attack on defense. It’s really not that hard to understand my guy. It’s literally the same argument I’m making for how I see IQ best utilized.

Ellis is not even statistically a better defender than IQ.

IQ is the better shooter, playmaker, rebounder, etc. and the defence is a wash.

There is NO argument for Ellis > IQ. NONE. The guy is a fine piece off the ball. He is an Agbaji level player which is a fine piece to have, but he has no place on this team.

[Grew]

Let's just think simply on this one shall we. We don't want anything from the Sacremento kings.

[YogurtProducer]

The idea of Sabonis has grown on me, but the good thing is the Raptors aren’t in a dire position to do something now. However something will have to be done at some point in the near future. Too much money tied up in average to below average starting PG and C, a bench that can’t shoot with any consistency (besides awful), and no one who can consistently get downhill off the bounce.

I dont think IQ or Poeltl are below average. They're both in that mid 15th range at their position I'd say. Pretty average starters.

Our bench is currently shooting:

Shead - 32.6%
Walter - 35.8%
Dick - 32.0%
Mamu - 38.1%
CMB - 38.5%

All things considered, that's a fairly decent bench shooting unit. The league average is 35.9%, and our bench has 2 below, 1 average, and 2 above average shooters % wise. The real issue shooting wise off the bench is Shead as typically your PG should be a good shooter, and our "specialist" in Dick is anything but. But Walter/Mamu/CMB have all been fine shooting wise.

[Merit]

Well... you can disagree all you like but Sabonis downright bad defensively, whereas Poeltl is good, maybe even great, on that end.

It frankly isn't close.

If Rebounding = defense and advanced stats (ie DBPM, DWS) matter then it is a lot closer than you make it.

Sabonis is better than Poeltl in every statistical category outside of block% (due to his trex arms and lack of speed)

Sabonis has also been more durable throughout his career and is a year younger

Again, if we can get Sabonis for Poeltl, you insta do it

Plus, Sabonis can grab a defensive rebound and push the ball himself. While not a volume 3 point shooter by any means, he can hit it if he is left open. He shot 37/38/42 last 3 seasons on 1-2 attempts per game.

Seeing how Mamu has finally delivered in the stretch big the team has been searching for years and how that opened things up for the offense is interesting. Sabonis isn’t as athletic and won’t (or hasn’t in the past) shot at Mamu’s volume but he does provide the threat, plus he’s a much better rebounder and passer.

The idea of Sabonis has grown on me, but the good thing is the Raptors aren’t in a dire position to do something now. However something will have to be done at some point in the near future. Too much money tied up in average to below average starting PG and C, a bench that can’t shoot with any consistency (besides awful), and no one who can consistently get downhill off the bounce.

Agree with your perception with the exception of how you view Jak. Let’s start with getting out of IQ’s contract.

My favourite trade is still Iq/Ochai/Gradey for Sabonis and Ellis (and we convert one of Martin/Lawson/Hepburn)

[Merit]

I didn’t say Ellis was a point guard. I said he would be our POINT OF ATTACK DEFENDER. Scottie or RJ would be our point guard. Saying this for the THIRD TIME and I said this all along.

Neither Scottie or RJ can be your point guard either, ESPECIALLY Barrett. There is a reason why we have moved Scottie off the ball more this year, and why RJ is not imitating plays.

My point still stands. Nobody is closing out on Jak. They actually have to consider Sabonis shooting in a late game scenario. Like 34% is horrible compared to basically zero, LOL.

Okay? Again - there is no ability to just swap Poeltl and Sabonis so the point is meaningless.

And also ignores that in late game teams actually have to consider Poeltls defense as a deterrence, whereas Sabonis' is a point of attack.

The vast difference in IQ vs. Ellis is Ellis superior defense. Again - he’s a SG on offense, “PG” in that he defends the point of attack on defense. It’s really not that hard to understand my guy. It’s literally the same argument I’m making for how I see IQ best utilized.

Ellis is not even statistically a better defender than IQ.

IQ is the better shooter, playmaker, rebounder, etc. and the defence is a wash.

There is NO argument for Ellis > IQ. NONE. The guy is a fine piece off the ball. He is an Agbaji level player which is a fine piece to have, but he has no place on this team.

What nonsense. Obviously in a defensive late game scenario you go with Jak. Offensively, you would go with Sabonis, depending on size. Otherwise you’d go with Scottie.

IQ is the cost for acquiring Sabonis. I’m not saying he’s a better player than Ellis. They are DIFFERENT players. You have to give something to get something. Perhaps the better argument is between Devin Carter and Ellis being better fits for the Raptors. I go with Ellis, but YMMV.

You might not see an argument for Ellis, and that’s totally okay. I’m focused on winning. According to fanspo we add 7 wins to our team when trading IQ/Ochai/Gradey for Sabonis/Ellis. Now of course we would have to utilize both players effectively and would be up schitt’s creek if Shead went down with a major injury. However, if you think we have 3x guards on two way deals just because... well, I’d encourage you to imagine why that might be the case.

[Merit]

The idea of Sabonis has grown on me, but the good thing is the Raptors aren’t in a dire position to do something now. However something will have to be done at some point in the near future. Too much money tied up in average to below average starting PG and C, a bench that can’t shoot with any consistency (besides awful), and no one who can consistently get downhill off the bounce.

I dont think IQ or Poeltl are below average. They're both in that mid 15th range at their position I'd say. Pretty average starters.

Our bench is currently shooting:

Shead - 32.6%
Walter - 35.8%
Dick - 32.0%
Mamu - 38.1%
CMB - 38.5%

All things considered, that's a fairly decent bench shooting unit. The league average is 35.9%, and our bench has 2 below, 1 average, and 2 above average shooters % wise. The real issue shooting wise off the bench is Shead as typically your PG should be a good shooter, and our "specialist" in Dick is anything but. But Walter/Mamu/CMB have all been fine shooting wise.

I like our bench a lot better in terms of shooting when we replace gradey with battle. Also, Mamu is our starter for the time being, and that’s precisely why our bench shooting sucks.

[causal_fan]

RJ has proven too valuable to move and both Walter & Gradey have not stepped up so I'm only expecting a trade to duck under the tax and unfortunately that will likely cost a SRP which I really hate.

[ArthurVandelay]

The idea of Sabonis has grown on me, but the good thing is the Raptors aren’t in a dire position to do something now. However something will have to be done at some point in the near future. Too much money tied up in average to below average starting PG and C, a bench that can’t shoot with any consistency (besides awful), and no one who can consistently get downhill off the bounce.

I dont think IQ or Poeltl are below average. They're both in that mid 15th range at their position I'd say. Pretty average starters.

Our bench is currently shooting:

Shead - 32.6%
Walter - 35.8%
Dick - 32.0%
Mamu - 38.1%
CMB - 38.5%

All things considered, that's a fairly decent bench shooting unit. The league average is 35.9%, and our bench has 2 below, 1 average, and 2 above average shooters % wise. The real issue shooting wise off the bench is Shead as typically your PG should be a good shooter, and our "specialist" in Dick is anything but. But Walter/Mamu/CMB have all been fine shooting wise.

Did you read what I said: They are AVERAGE to below average.

I’d lean more towards below personally but I also recognize my bias of watching more Raptors games than any other team.

The average NBA salary is $11.9m this season

The median salary is $6m this season

$52m and soon to be $60m from those two is disgraceful cap management when you also have Scottie, BI, and RJ.

There is no value from any starter so the two worst really do stand out.


Also, did you read what I said about consistency? A bench that can’t shoot consistently. The most consistent shooter off the bench has been Mamu. CMB volume way too low to count. But then there is Battle at 48.5% who must have killed Darko’s dog or groped his wife at an early season team party.

You can type up all the stats you want. Anyone who’s watched the games know the bench who actually play can’t shoot a lick consistently outside Mamu.

[YogurtProducer]

What nonsense. Obviously in a defensive late game scenario you go with Jak. Offensively, you would go with Sabonis, depending on size. Otherwise you’d go with Scottie.

Wait, so now we are keeping both Sabonis and Jak and paying $62M to two guys we cant even play together?

IQ is the cost for acquiring Sabonis. I’m not saying he’s a better player than Ellis. They are DIFFERENT players. You have to give something to get something. Perhaps the better argument is between Devin Carter and Ellis being better fits for the Raptors. I go with Ellis, but YMMV.

They are very different players - and we would lose our only movement shooting threat in IQ. Teams would pack the **** out of the paint and we would see a massive offensive regression.

You might not see an argument for Ellis, and that’s totally okay. I’m focused on winning. According to fanspo we add 7 wins to our team when trading IQ/Ochai/Gradey for Sabonis/Ellis.

WTF does Fanspo know? 0 chance we get SEVEN GAMES better if we are relying on Shead to be our PG

Now of course we would have to utilize both players effectively and would be up schitt’s creek if Shead went down with a major injury. However, if you think we have 3x guards on two way deals just because... well, I’d encourage you to imagine why that might be the case.

I can guarantee you our 2-ways are simply the 3 best guys we think have the ability to develop. We are not rostering 2-way guards because we have any expectation they will contribute in any fashion this year.

[ArthurVandelay]

Let's just think simply on this one shall we. We don't want anything from the Sacremento kings.

Historically it has worked out very well for the Raptors, no?

[YogurtProducer]

The idea of Sabonis has grown on me, but the good thing is the Raptors aren’t in a dire position to do something now. However something will have to be done at some point in the near future. Too much money tied up in average to below average starting PG and C, a bench that can’t shoot with any consistency (besides awful), and no one who can consistently get downhill off the bounce.

I dont think IQ or Poeltl are below average. They're both in that mid 15th range at their position I'd say. Pretty average starters.

Our bench is currently shooting:

Shead - 32.6%
Walter - 35.8%
Dick - 32.0%
Mamu - 38.1%
CMB - 38.5%

All things considered, that's a fairly decent bench shooting unit. The league average is 35.9%, and our bench has 2 below, 1 average, and 2 above average shooters % wise. The real issue shooting wise off the bench is Shead as typically your PG should be a good shooter, and our "specialist" in Dick is anything but. But Walter/Mamu/CMB have all been fine shooting wise.

Did you read what I said: They are AVERAGE to below average. I’d lean more towards below personally but I also recognize my bias of watching more Raptors games than anyone else.

Yes, which means you view them below average, as you even admit. If average is 15th, and below average is say, 30th. You suggested they are 21st-23rdish. I don't agree with that at all.

The average NBA salary is $11.9m this season

The median salary is $6m this season

$52m and soon to be $60m from those two is disgraceful cap management when you also have Scottie, BI, and RJ.

There is no value from any starter so the two worst really do stand out.

In a league of rookie contracts you can't just look at average and medians and make any sort of freaking conclusions

We currently have 33.6% of our cap tied up in Jak/IQ. By IQ's last year it will be 33.9%.

That is FAR from "disgraceful" cap management. IDK if you've looked around the league, but paying 15-20% of your cap for good starting caliber players is literally what every single NBA team has to do. WE might see a change in the trends now happening with the new CBA, but it is not going to be ANYWHERE near the "average" $11.9m or anything like that.

Also, did you read what I said about consistency? A bench that can’t shoot consistently. The most consistent shooter off the bench has been Mamu. CMB volume way too low to count. But then there is Battle at 48.5% who must have killed Darko’s dog or groped his wife at an early season team party.

You can type up all the stats you want. Anyone who’s watched the games know the bench who actually play can’t shoot a lick consistently outside Mamu.

I mean, that is not true, but okay.

Shooting is inherently inconsistent. Every single NBA player in the entire freaking league is an "inconsistent' shooter because we are talking about something where the elite only get it right 40% of the time. Then when you dial down the sample to "just bench players" you are looking at samples of like 14 shots per night and expecting these to be "consistent".

3 point shooting is NOISY. Even elite players go from hitting multiple 3's to only 1 on any given night. It is just the reality of the type of shot.

Hell, DEN is the best shooting team in the league at 40%. However, that hasn't changed the fact in their 37 games their %'s are all over the place.

<30% - 6 times
30-35% - 6 times
36-40% - 8 times
40-45% - 7 times
46-50% - 5 times
50% - 4 times

Is that not "inconsistent"?