RealGM

I was curious as to what many of you feel Amir is worth and if you would retain him. First lets look at a couple of things

1) It was highlighted on this board by "Double Helix" how Amir dropped from 30th in Defensive real plus minus to 89th this year. Part of this can be blamed by Kyle missing some games and GV being inserted into the starting lineup but obviously a drastic drop like the above is concerning. That thread can be found here.

viewtopic.php?t=1386075

2) His injury concerns. While he rarely wants to miss games and he decided to opt against surgery on his ankles this summer this has to be worrisome. He took measures to try to avoid ankle injuries this year by going to a centre in October.

Johnson was directed to a training centre in Santa Barbara this summer that goes by the name P3.

The P3 stands for the ‘Peak Performance Project.’

For Johnson it was a means to identify and avoid what steps were likely to lead to rolled ankles and what he could do to avoid them.

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/10/03/ra ... nky-ankles

Despite taking measures in October, Amir hurt his ankle in a November game. He plays through pain which is undeniable but it does impact his play.

3) His overall advanced statistical decline

Amir is 28, he has 10 years on NBA experience. However looking at his advanced stats you see many of them are on the decline.

In 2006 Amir had a ORB% of 14.4 (high), from there it started to decline each year. It was up this year to 9.3 from 9.0 the year prior but there has been a steady decline since that 2006 high.

Amirs DRB% has fluctuated throughout his career. His high was in 2007-2008 at 23.2. In 2012/2013 he had a DRB% of 20.0, since then it has declined to 17.6 and 17.3 this year.

Much like his DRB%, Amirs TRB% has also fluctuated. His high was again in 2007-2008 at 18.4. Since 2012/2013 his TRB% has slipped from 15.6 to 13.3 and 13.3.

Much like his DRB% & TRB% Amirs BLK% was the highest in 2007-2008 at 8.5%. Since 2012/2013 it has declined from 3.8 to 3.2 and now this year it is at a career low 2.4%

Following suit is his DWS (defensive win share) and WS (win share). His DWS at 2.9 in 2012/2013 that actually rose to 3.1 last season but plummeted to 1.6 this year. His WS decreased from 7.3 in 2012/2013 to 6.3 last year and 5.1 this current year.

Lastly his DBPM (defensive box plus minus) & BPM (box plus minus). His peak and career high for DBPM was in 2007-2008 at 5.7. In 2012/2013 it was 2.8, dropping down to 2.4 last year and 1.0 this current season. His BPM was again the highest in 2007-2008 at 4.3. In 2012/2013 it was 3.5, dropping down to 2.6 last year and 1.8 this current season.

What we can gather from this is that Amir had his best defensive and rebounding performance by advanced statistics in 2007-2008. From 2012-2013 pretty much all of his numbers (with the exception of a few) have seen a 3 year steady decline. To me this is concerning and i wonder how much this decline will continue into his new contract.

With all that said and sorry for the long post, i would like to get some feedback. Me personally i view him in the 6-7 million range. Yes the cap is increasing but i don't think tying up massive money in a guy who has experienced a decline over the last 3 years is a smart thing to do. Curious what everyone else thinks.

I'll add this.

Channing Frye, Orlando Magic (four years, $32 million left) — Frye has a goofy contract because it actually de-escalates. He makes $8.6 million this year but only $7.4 million by the time the deal is over in 2017-18. When he signed the deal this summer people scratched their heads, but $8 million might be the going rate for a decent role player with the new cap.

http://www.businessinsider.com/nba-cont ... ap-2014-10

So the 5-6 I see many voting for seems unrealistic based on the new cap.

I would be more comfortable saying 4-5 rather than 5-6.

I would say any where from 8-9 million especially since the cap is going to go up. Teams will definitely be interested in him.

I'd be okay with around 5mil for him as a backup, but with Patterson already making 6mil, it makes no sense to have 11mil to your backup PFs. You'd still need to find a starting PF and have very little money to do that with. You'd still be stuck with glaring holes at SF, backup PG and backup C. Unless Bebe comes out next season swinging and prove that he can be a serviceable backup C.

WeTheNorth77 wrote:I would say any where from 8-9 million especially since the cap is going to go up. Teams will definitely be interested in him.

At that price, they can have him. He's injured every season and has been regressing for the last couple seasons. I'll give him credit for playing through injuries and playing with a lot of heart, but you really could see all those injuries catching up with him this season. He's just not a starter anymore. He'd be great as a backup PF/C, and playing limited minutes to help him stay refreshed, but isn't likely going to want to come off the bench.

UneducatedFan86 wrote:

WeTheNorth77 wrote:I would say any where from 8-9 million especially since the cap is going to go up. Teams will definitely be interested in him.

At that price, they can have him. He's injured every season and has been regressing for the last couple seasons. I'll give him credit for playing through injuries and playing with a lot of heart, but you really could see all those injuries catching up with him this season. He's just not a starter anymore. He'd be great as a backup PF/C, and playing limited minutes to help him stay refreshed, but isn't likely going to want to come off the bench.

I wouldn't want to pay him that much either but teams will definitely be interested in his service. Cap is going to be going up and I can realistically see him getting that much or close to it. That's just my opinion though.

I really doubt we can get him for below 6 million though. Would love to have him back but I think its time to move on and find a better replacement for Amir.

Rapsobsessed7 wrote:So the 5-6 I see many voting for seems unrealistic based on the new cap.

He can leave then. He's not that good anymore.

He's worth 9mil, but if I'm Masai I don't pay him, it will be awkward to see him in another team.

My attitude is to first put all of our trade chips and cap space - and that includes waiving Vasquez using stretch waivers - on starters. I'f rather have a strong starting five and a weak bench because the bench will come through our draft picks and by overpaying in the summer of 2016 for secondary and tertiary talent. Depending on how that works out in early July, I might not offer Amir anything.

dagger wrote:My attitude is to first put all of our trade chips and cap space - and that includes waiving Vasquez using stretch waivers - on starters. I'f rather have a strong starting five and a weak bench because the bench will come through our draft picks and by overpaying in the summer of 2016 for secondary and tertiary talent. Depending on how that works out in early July, I might not offer Amir anything.

Stretch waving GV makes almost no sense. He'll need to be replaced and is still a solid backup PG. Just to get 4M in capspace? Pass.

Can't wait for all the people in this thread throwing out 3-5M.

Sign and trade bait or 'hometown' discount.

Pretty tough question. I mean, the guy can still put up a big game every now and then. And it's not like we have any world beaters in the front court as of now. Go after a starting calibre PF first, and see what you have left over for Amir. If there is anything left.

Rapcity_11 wrote:

dagger wrote:My attitude is to first put all of our trade chips and cap space - and that includes waiving Vasquez using stretch waivers - on starters. I'f rather have a strong starting five and a weak bench because the bench will come through our draft picks and by overpaying in the summer of 2016 for secondary and tertiary talent. Depending on how that works out in early July, I might not offer Amir anything.

Stretch waving GV makes almost no sense. He'll need to be replaced and is still a solid backup PG. Just to get 4M in capspace? Pass.

Although there are many PGs in the league, and GV is over paid as a 6th man, but I agree that it is meaningless to waive a useful backup PG for his final year.

And even we get more cap space, we may not attract much free agency. I am not surprised we will endup plaing Amir, as he may accept a reasonable long term contract with us. Perhaps at 6m with the cap going up.

I don't see other teams going above the MLE for him.

I bet the Clippers would love to have him if they keep things together.

2 years and 10 million is the most I would offer him - 5 million a year

I would imagine that the Full Non-Taxpayer MLE (5.6m) for the full four years (likely around 4/23) is the absolute floor for him this summer, he will likely have several of those offers on July 1st.

With that said, if someone like Channing Frye with a similar amount of games played over the last few season and four years older based on his track record when healthy was able to net 4/32 I could see Amir fetching that sort contract, Taj is a year older and making 8.5 to 9m, I could see Amir landing that too.

Someone will overpay, and that would be their problem.

6-7 million keeps him in Toronto. Anything more and I doubt Masai would bite.