SOTD: Amir drops from 30th to 89th in Defensive real plus minus

Post #1 » by **Double Helix** » Mon May 4, 2015 4:09 pm

VVV, myself, Boris and plenty of others, for years, have spent a lot of time highlighting just how crucial Amir's been at holding the team's defence together but it seems we may have unfortunately reached the point, due to injuries, where his ability to anchor the kind of D that Casey likes to run may not be possible any longer.

Amir was 30th league-wide in defensive impact via real plus minus last season and has been even higher than that in years prior using similar methodology

Poor Amir, busted up ankles and all from fixing the mistakes of the likes of Bargnani, Calderon, Vasquez, Derozan (prior to his improvements defensively) and from having been in the league a long time despite still being quite young, [url=http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/3/sort/DRPM]now ranks 89 in the league. In a 300+ member league that's still good. He will still be coveted this year. He's still top 25 in defensive impact among PFS which is quite valuable. It's just that he may no longer be the best kept secret of defensive anchors in basketball like he had been in previous seasons.

A lot has been made about the Raptors decline from a top 10 defence to 25th ranked following the injuries to Demar and Kyle (which increased the minutes for Grevis and Lou) and those points are absolutely relevant but as much as it pains me to admit it... It's also reached a point where Amir is no longer the anchor he used to be for us. All of these things, along with the team thinking they were talented enough offensively to play differently, likely contributed to the slide.

But all is not lost. Remember that article earlier this year from Lowe about Valanciunas' slow but steady growth as a defender? It's also backed up by this methodology which shows substantial improvement in impact over last year (climbing up 18 spots at his position defensively). But as Lowe pointed out... While JV is improving... It's coming slowly so if this team is to become a top 10 defensive team again it may have to come via a substantial PF and SF upgrade.

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Post #2 » by **Rhettmatic** » Mon May 4, 2015 4:17 pm

Let us flashback to April 2012, when Amir played 22 minutes per meaningless game despite being visibly hobbled with fairly serious injuries, some of which dog him to this day.

By the way, The Raptors went 6-8 that April, their best month of the season.

They then drafted Terrence Ross 8th, while New Orleans -- who lost two more games than the Raptors -- won the lottery and drafted Anthony Davis.

At least we have our winning culture. And Ross!

Mr.Raptorsingh · Post #3 » by **Mr.Raptorsingh** » Mon May 4, 2015 4:18 pm

Rhettmatic wrote:Let us flashback to April 2012, when Amir played 22 minutes per meaningless game despite being visibly hobbled with fairly serious injuries, some of which dog him to this day.

By the way, The Raptors went 6-8 that April, their best month of the season.

They then drafted Terrence Ross 8th, while New Orleans -- who lost two more games than the Raptors -- won the lottery and drafted Anthony Davis.

Ah, good times. Thanks Dwane (and Ben Uzoh).

Post #4 » by **Duffman100** » Mon May 4, 2015 4:19 pm

Love him. Such a warrior.

But if we're going to take the next step, we need more talent at our starting PF spot. If he wants to come back for a lot less money, then I'll welcome him as our backup 5.

Post #5 » by **Double Helix** » Mon May 4, 2015 4:25 pm

Wow. Rhett. That's literally the most depressing Raptors realization I've had since game 4.

Yikes.

Reminds me of the Stephen Curry draft year where Colangelo brought up D league talent that overacheived at the end, while they auditioned for pay checks, and we fell a couple spots away from Curry, who I honestly feel we would have drafted due to his talent, the Dell connection and the fact that he played ball in Toronto as a kid and would have viewed the franchise more favourably than some. It didn't work out as bad as it could have with us still getting Derozan but let's be real. One of those 2 worked his way into being an All Star. The other just won the league MVP.

Or how about us winning the lotto the year FOLLOWING the age increase where Kevin Durant might have potentially sat down with Colangelo and told him that the Raptors were his favourite tesm and BC could have possibly gambled on KD over Oden instead of gambling on Bargs over Aldridge?

Raptors gonna Raptor, I guess...

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OakleyDokely · Post #6 » by **OakleyDokely** » Mon May 4, 2015 4:34 pm

If we can get Amir on a reduced deal, he'd still make a solid bench big.

Post #7 » by **TheDoctor** » Mon May 4, 2015 4:38 pm

What that means is Amir has gone from being a key starter to still being good enough to be a key reserve.

If he were on another team, he'd be the kind of veteran two-way big that we'd be hoping to add to this group. (Minus playoff success/vocal leadership, but good luck finding all of those things in one guy who isn't really long in the tooth)

I'm really curious what kinds of offers he'll get on the market, and from who. The kind of good team who would want to bring him off the bench likely only has MLE-type money to offer him... if they have more, they want to add a more major piece. Which is pretty similar to our own cap positioning.

If we don't get a big ticket FA, I could see us resigning him... but maybe on a one year deal for starter money. Gives both sides options for next year. (Could see us doing the same with Lou in that case, because he's in a very similar situation in terms of the $ involved and type of team that would target him, but also where he'd fit into their salary structure.)

BJaysRaps · Post #8 » by **BJaysRaps** » Mon May 4, 2015 4:40 pm

we are just a joke of a franchise. When we tank we tank 3/4 of the season and then go all in for a winning record in april, while playoff teams are resting their starters. When we're gunning for a playoff spot we play sub 500 for 3/4 of the season then proceed to tank in april and finish 9th or 10th seed. we have been in no man's land since 1995 smh.

RaptorsLife · Post #9 » by **RaptorsLife** » Mon May 4, 2015 4:50 pm

Love Amir but its time to move on

Basketball_Jones · Post #10 » by **Basketball_Jones** » Mon May 4, 2015 5:09 pm

Double Helix wrote:Wow. Rhett. That's literally the most depressing Raptors realization I've had since game 4.

Yikes.

I know, I was thinking the exact same thing. Rudy was just acquired so I think it wasn't an easy tank. But again, disconnect from the priorities of the GM and that of the coach has always been a big problem. One is coaching for his life, the other maybe wants more ping pong balls but won't say anything.

Rapcity_11 · Post #11 » by **Rapcity_11** » Mon May 4, 2015 5:17 pm

Double Helix wrote:Wow. Rhett. That's literally the most depressing Raptors realization I've had since game 4.

Yikes.

Reminds me of the Stephen Curry draft year where Colangelo brought up D league talent that overacheived at the end, while they auditioned for pay checks, and we fell a couple spots away from Curry, who I honestly feel we would have drafted due to his talent, the Dell connection and the fact that he played ball in Toronto as a kid and would have viewed the franchise more favourably than some. It didn't work out as bad as it could have with us still getting Derozan but let's be real. One of those 2 worked his way into being an All Star. The other just won the league MVP.

Or how about us winning the lotto the year FOLLOWING the age increase where Kevin Durant might have potentially sat down with Colangelo and told him that the Raptors were his favourite tesm and BC could have possibly gambled on KD over Oden instead of gambling on Bargs over Aldridge?

Raptors gonna Raptor, I guess...

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I’ve thought about the Oden/KD thing too, but there’s a 100% chance every GM was taking Oden coming out of high school. He was a tier above as a prospect. Does that make you feel better? Yeah, me neither.

Post #12 » by **Rhettmatic** » Mon May 4, 2015 5:19 pm

Double Helix wrote:Wow. Rhett. That's literally the most depressing Raptors realization I've had since game 4.

Yikes.

Other depressing facts about that draft:

- Damian Lillard was selected 6th, with a pick conveyed to Portland by Brooklyn, who lost only one more game than the Raptors
- The Wizards, who actually fell a spot to 3 and ended up drafting Bradley Beal, lost only three more games than the Raptors
- Draymond Green was drafted 35th by Golden State, two spots ahead of where the Raptors drafted Quincy Acy
- Khris Middleton was then drafted two spots after Quincy Acy

Post #13 » by **Double Helix** » Mon May 4, 2015 5:21 pm

TheDoctor wrote:What that means is Amir has gone from being a key starter to still being good enough to be a key reserve.

If he were on another team, he'd be the kind of veteran two-way big that we'd be hoping to add to this group. (Minus playoff success/vocal leadership, but good luck finding all of those things in one guy who isn't really long in the tooth)

I'm really curious what kinds of offers he'll get on the market, and from who. The kind of good team who would want to bring him off the bench likely only has MLE-type money to offer him... if they have more, they want to add a more major piece. Which is pretty similar to our own cap positioning.

If we don't get a big ticket FA, I could see us resigning him... but maybe on a one year deal for starter money. Gives both sides options for next year. (Could see us doing the same with Lou in that case, because he's in a very similar situation in terms of the $ involved and type of team that would target him, but also where he'd fit into their salary structure.)

I'd And1 this if I wasn't on the app but I'm in 100% agreement with you here.

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gerrit4 · Post #14 » by **gerrit4** » Mon May 4, 2015 5:26 pm

Rhettmatic wrote:Let us flashback to April 2012, when Amir played 22 minutes per meaningless game despite being visibly hobbled with fairly serious injuries, some of which dog him to this day.

By the way, The Raptors went 6-8 that April, their best month of the season.

They then drafted Terrence Ross 8th, while New Orleans -- who lost two more games than the Raptors -- won the lottery and drafted Anthony Davis.

At least we have our winning culture. And Ross!

I hate to point out the obvious here, but I do hate it when "winning culture" takes on a negative connotation. Obviously, acquiring a winning culture is the whole point here. Isn't that our goal as fans? I mean, we all want a championship (or a dynasty), but that's the ultimate example of a winning culture.

Let's face it - if the Raps win a ring it won't really change anyone's lives on this board. We spend 1000's of hours of our lives talking about the team, complaining about the problems, hoping for the future. Why do we really want a championship? Because it creates a winning culture to a franchise. It gives fans of teams like the Pistons and Mavericks a sense of accomplishment that can't be taken away. Creating a "winning culture" is not only what leads to championships, it's what championships create.

Winning some meaningless games in April that year was obviously pointless probably didn't really do much to add to a winning culture. In fact, let's not forget how much the team still dogged it down that stretch. The final game of the season that year during the nets (the infamous Uzoh triple double and Alabi double double) was still the worst professional sports game I've ever seen, and was a case of two teams clearly trying to out-tank each other. There was no winning culture built that year - that was just a matter of our players/coach having a bit more dignity than the competition. In fact, let's not forget that the last few months of the season, New Orleans got Eric Gordon back and had their best couple months of the season to close it out (don't have the numbers, just going from memory here).

I just hate hearing the words "winning culture" used as some sort of defamatory phrase when it's clearly what we want as a franchise. Whether or not that helped achieve it is beside the point. Saying that we shouldn't strive for a winning culture because it backfired is like saying "the last three job interviews I went to I was wearing pants and didn't get the job, so clearly wearing pants to a job interview is pointless."

It's kind of like when people here complain that Casey values "spacing" - um yeah, every coach in the league values spacing. It doesn't make it right or wrong that he starts Ross, but let's not act like spacing and a winning culture are bad words.

joshgc · Post #15 » by **joshgc** » Mon May 4, 2015 5:40 pm

Rhettmatic wrote:Let us flashback to April 2012, when Amir played 22 minutes per meaningless game despite being visibly hobbled with fairly serious injuries, some of which dog him to this day.

By the way, The Raptors went 6-8 that April, their best month of the season.

They then drafted Terrence Ross 8th, while New Orleans -- who lost two more games than the Raptors -- won the lottery and drafted Anthony Davis.

At least we have our winning culture. And Ross!

sweetcity · Post #16 » by **sweetcity** » Mon May 4, 2015 5:55 pm

Taj Gibson would be such a solid replacement for Amir Johnson.

brownbobcat · Post #17 » by **brownbobcat** » Mon May 4, 2015 6:01 pm

Rhettmatic wrote:Let us flashback to April 2012, when Amir played 22 minutes per meaningless game despite being visibly hobbled with fairly serious injuries, some of which dog him to this day.

By the way, The Raptors went 6-8 that April, their best month of the season.

They then drafted Terrence Ross 8th, while New Orleans -- who lost two more games than the Raptors -- won the lottery and drafted Anthony Davis.

At least we have our winning culture. And Ross!

Or they could've just drafted the next best big available instead of Ross, wonder who that would've been ...

cram · Post #18 » by **cram** » Mon May 4, 2015 6:51 pm

Lots of woulda/shoulda's....

In 2005 the Jazz landed the #3 pick in the draft (that they used on Deron Williams, though Chris Paul was on the board) in exchange for the #6 and #27 picks. Toronto had the #7 and #16 so should've been in on that deal, but instead went with Charlie V and Joey Graham!!

The Ross/Drummond one is such an obvious gaffe.

Drafting Bargnani was a bit of one as well, but perhaps not as obvious.

Indeed · Post #19 » by **Indeed** » Mon May 4, 2015 7:02 pm

sweetcity wrote:Taj Gibson would be such a solid replacement for Amir Johnson.

I am not sure. If Amir is being paid a little less (5m - 6m per year), I would prefer Amir. And Amir can play C, Gibson can only play PF (or SF).

J Dilla · Post #20 » by **J Dilla** » Mon May 4, 2015 7:14 pm

brownbobcat wrote:
Rhettmatic wrote:Let us flashback to April 2012, when Amir played 22 minutes per meaningless game despite being visibly hobbled with fairly serious injuries, some of which dog him to this day.

By the way, The Raptors went 6-8 that April, their best month of the season.

They then drafted Terrence Ross 8th, while New Orleans -- who lost two more games than the Raptors -- won the lottery and drafted Anthony Davis.

At least we have our winning culture. And Ross!

Or they could've just drafted the next best big available instead of Ross, wonder who that would've been ...

Who....Tyler Zeller?