The grand design- same old or new?

Moderator: Andre Roberstan

jambalaya
Rookie
Posts: 1,137
And1: 191
Joined: Feb 01, 2005

The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#1 » by jambalaya » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:11 am

Will Presti essentially rebuild on the same old design of dribble drive offense and long defenders or will he do anything new? Shooting first? More distributed passing? Better trained defenders on perimeter?

Will they eventually get more older / smarter guys to balance the rotation? When? 2025? 2027? When will Presti ever field a team that wasn't likely too young to win a title? 2037? 2047? Never?

In his current cast of young guys, it looks like same old, same old priorities. And while I might want to be optimistic about some of the young guys, I have also felt this group of young guys might just be mostly or entirely transitional nobodies to be replaced by all the draft picks down the line.
Kizz Fastfists
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,299
And1: 1,285
Joined: Jun 05, 2014
   

Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#2 » by Kizz Fastfists » Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:08 am

We don't know how Donovan will try to coach the team or what the offense will look like. We are all hopeful that Russ was the offensive problem and based on the flashes of movement we saw with him out last year there is a glimmer of hope that Donovan will instill a legitimate NBA offense. It is also possible that Donovan is gone in a year and we get to see what a new coach does.

As for when they will go for the veterans to go over the top and go from building to winning we only have one Presti build to look at. Year 1 was Kd/Green. Year 2 added Russ/Ibaka. Year 3 added Harden. Year 4 traded for Perkins and ended the building era for the win now era. Assuming we follow that time line this is year 1 with SGA and the return from Russ. So you have '19-'20, '20-21 and '21-22 as your building years and then in '22-'23 the switch gets flipped to win now. Obviously, that isn't guaranteed as you have to land the right players to flip the switch then. It could be '23-'24 instead. However, given the number of assets Presti should be able to land key players quickly. Next year's draft has a few potential franchise players in it and hopefully Presti will land one I like on draft night. Starting in 2021 he will have multiple first round picks allowing him to potentially move up for the player he wants. The best pick in his first build was a late first he got from Phoenix that he used on Ibaka. If he finds an Ibaka level player with the Denver first he got for Grant we will probably be in really good shape really fast. I don't expect him to hit that again, but there have a been a lot of late firsts lately that were obviously better than their draft position at the time and they showed it as rookies. OKC had just given up all their picks to add those players through the draft recently.

The first piece, SGA, shot better as a rookie than kd did. SGA is a good shooter. You can also could Ferguson as a solid shooter. Diallo was a 2nd round pick so I can forgive his flaw of lacking shooting. Remember GS had a non-shooter in Livingston for a key role player during their championship seasons. You don't need everyone to be a shooter, but you need to have good shooting. Assuming Herro is part of the package for Russ that would be two shooters. That would indicate a different line of thinking for Presti. We will wait to see what happens. I'm holding out hope that Diallo becomes a solid shooter and turns into Iguodala as I think he is capable of hitting that level with every other aspect of his game. Without the shooting he could still be a solid role player, but more along the lines of your last rotation guy not your 6th/7th man.

If Presti drafts an athletic guy who can't shoot in the top 10 next year I will probably not be happy. There are exceptions, i.e. Giannis and Ben Simmons, but generally you want your primary ball handler to be a good shooter OR smart enough not to take shots he can't make. Russ has never been that player and it limited OKC's ceiling his whole career. SGA is a good shooter so that is one problem from Thunder 1.0 that will not carry over to the next generation.
User avatar
ThunderBolt
RealGM
Posts: 10,943
And1: 8,091
Joined: Dec 29, 2016
Location: Bentonville, AR
 

Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#3 » by ThunderBolt » Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:33 am

I heard on the radio that Bazley had a couple of really nice passes. I didn’t watch the game or any highlights so i dont know if that’s true. This isn’t the first time I’ve heard someone mention he’s a good passer.
Kizz Fastfists
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,299
And1: 1,285
Joined: Jun 05, 2014
   

Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#4 » by Kizz Fastfists » Wed Jul 10, 2019 3:12 am

He's a good ball handler and passer for his size. Bazely seems to have very good hand-eye coordination which allows for a lot of fun moves in space. The problem is he can't shoot his way out of a wet paper bag!!! It is possible that Bazely will find the right person to teach him how to shot and completely retrain his muscle memory in a shooting motion that works for him. It would just require so much work and time that I have a hard time seeing it happen.

Just like Russ was never willing to become disciplined to work on that flaw. Russ just kept working on what he was already good at instead of being willing to learn a new shot and develop one that would work and take his game to a much higher level.
CROklahoma
Junior
Posts: 410
And1: 113
Joined: Feb 22, 2017

Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#5 » by CROklahoma » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:02 am

ThunderBolt wrote:I heard on the radio that Bazley had a couple of really nice passes. I didn’t watch the game or any highlights so i dont know if that’s true. This isn’t the first time I’ve heard someone mention he’s a good passer.


Saw some plays and he definetly has the potential.
Is very raw still, but he needs 200+ games to be consistant in what he is doing.
jambalaya
Rookie
Posts: 1,137
And1: 191
Joined: Feb 01, 2005

Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#6 » by jambalaya » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:46 am

So Kizz, you expect 4-5 years til they are 'there" or the start of there. We agree on that being the likely general timeline of a total rebuild.

Some chance they accelerate with a free agent signing or two.


On Ferguson, hard to say what kind of shooter he is based on 10-11% usage.

But he shot well in the 11 games last season where he shot 10 plus times.
Kizz Fastfists
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,299
And1: 1,285
Joined: Jun 05, 2014
   

Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#7 » by Kizz Fastfists » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:19 am

jambalaya wrote:So Kizz, you expect 4-5 years til they are 'there" or the start of there. We agree on that being the likely general timeline of a total rebuild.


Since I'm calling this year 1, I'm going to say I have playoff expectations for year 4 and WCF potential expectations for year 5. We are starting with SGA, Ferguson and the Russ return in year 1. We are adding at least two first round picks in 2020 for year 2. Then two more good first round picks in 2021 as they head into year 3, which could be a playoff year. Then what should be at least two top 18 picks in 2022, and it could be two lottery picks, for the 4th year and what should be a playoff year.

It is hard to project where OKC will pick at this point, but we should have a reasonable idea after the Russ trade is done. It is possible that Kawhi and PG abandon LAC in two years and their picks end up all being top 5. Hopefully, Russ ends up in Miami which almost guarantees the 2021 pick from them is lottery.

Most of the moves Presti has made have come out of nowhere. The Melo trade was speculated and expected when it happened and the Ibaka to Orlando trade was expected. Outside of those two I can't think of any telegraphed trades by Presti. This could mean the Miami, Detroit and Minny stuff is all a smoke screen and are not where Russ is going. Russ could even be playing up the Miami talk just to push a mystery team to up their offer to finish the deal. My assumption on Russ' value is that he will return at least what Mike Conley did. Conley got a young prospect and two first round picks along with quality expiring filler.

I think NOLA is a dark horse candidate. I don't see NOLA giving up Ball since they are rumored to be very high on him, but they could try to use Russ as a mentor and in a year or two transition to Lonzo as the starter. Russ, Jrue, Ingram, Zion and Jaxson Hayes might be a starting 5 they think could get them in the playoffs. The trade would be something like Alexander-Walker, Josh Hart, Favors, Darius Miller, E'Twaun Moore and LAL 2024 unprotected 1st. NOLA would still have Lonzo and Redick coming off the bench. It is also possible that NOLA would keep Moore and Hart by sending Lonzo to a 3rd team for a prospect or pick that gets sent to OKC.
User avatar
1bigfan13
Junior
Posts: 378
And1: 294
Joined: Jul 08, 2018
     

Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#8 » by 1bigfan13 » Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:36 pm

The ugly truth that I haven't seen many mention as to why OKC had a hard time building a competitive roster post-Durant is there aren't many impact players out there willing to take a discount to play in OKC. This includes Westbrook. I know most want to act like he did the Thunder a huge favor by showing loyalty but in reality all he did was take the most money he could possibly take.

Maybe I'm forgetting someone but the only player who didn't take the max money was Victor Oladipo. He left some on the table. Everyone else made sure they squeezed OKC for every dollar they could get.Again, this includes Westbrook.

Now think back over the last 5 years and look around the league and how when other superstars team up.......they almost always take less than the max so that their new teams have enough cap room to pursue additional QUALITY free agents. OKC has never had that benefit.

All that being said, I Sam Presti still deserves a ton of blame and I'm glad that people are actually starting to point the finger at his shaky moves post-2012 Finals.
thor19
Sophomore
Posts: 220
And1: 38
Joined: Jan 18, 2017
 

Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#9 » by thor19 » Sat Jul 13, 2019 7:19 pm

I think we make a combination. We are going to get two to three players that will not be as good as Westbrook, Kd , or Harden. But we get more iq, more passing. I think something like Denver that they have good players but some people dont consider they have a superstar in jokic or murray, some say they are star at least, but they have a well balanced team.
jake_swivel
Sophomore
Posts: 106
And1: 38
Joined: Jul 07, 2019

Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#10 » by jake_swivel » Sat Jul 13, 2019 8:53 pm

ThunderBolt wrote:I heard on the radio that Bazley had a couple of really nice passes. I didn’t watch the game or any highlights so i dont know if that’s true. This isn’t the first time I’ve heard someone mention he’s a good passer.


User avatar
ThunderBolt
RealGM
Posts: 10,943
And1: 8,091
Joined: Dec 29, 2016
Location: Bentonville, AR
 

Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#11 » by ThunderBolt » Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:42 pm

jake_swivel wrote:
ThunderBolt wrote:I heard on the radio that Bazley had a couple of really nice passes. I didn’t watch the game or any highlights so i dont know if that’s true. This isn’t the first time I’ve heard someone mention he’s a good passer.



The drive along the baseline was most impressive.
User avatar
spearsy23
RealGM
Posts: 18,438
And1: 7,038
Joined: Jan 27, 2012
   

Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#12 » by spearsy23 » Sun Jul 14, 2019 4:36 am

The problem with expecting presti to change is that he had a crap ton of success with the old design.
“If you're getting stops and you're making threes and the other team's not scoring, that's when you're going to see a huge point difference there,” coach Billy Donovan said.
Kizz Fastfists
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,299
And1: 1,285
Joined: Jun 05, 2014
   

Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#13 » by Kizz Fastfists » Sun Jul 14, 2019 5:00 am

spearsy23 wrote:The problem with expecting presti to change is that he had a crap ton of success with the old design.


That is why I think anyone expecting drastic changes is kidding themselves. The hope is that he moves shooting up the list a bit. I'm not going to expect him to take a pure shooter who can do nothing else over an athletic freak. I just hope he starts picking athletes that are already average shooters or at least have a solid mid-range game and just need to extend to the 3pt line. If he eliminates the Roberson and Huestis types that can't shoot at all and goes for more of the OG and Ferguson types who are more traditional 3&D types then that would be a slight adjustment that could have significant impact.

Presti is never going to be the guy that says that 5'11 kid that can dribble, pass and shoot is worth a shot. He's going to take the 6'8 athletic defensive freak that bounces the ball off his leg and air balls it from the corner instead. However, those are never the only two options. There is the middle ground of a 6'6 guy that plays solid defense, shoots 35% from 3 and can drive to the rim in a straight line and can make the extra pass to get the team a better shot. There is no chance that guy is a HR, but he can be a solid double which is what OKC hasn't been getting since the Adams pick. If Presti had kept his pick and just collected singles and doubles to go with Russ, kd and Ibaka they might have won a championship. Instead he traded picks for strikeouts and kept chasing boom or busts while trying to out think everyone else and taking risk that was completely uncalled for. McGary was an uncalled for risk. Someone you knew had an issue leaving marijuana alone and was only in the draft because of a failed drug test. Huestis was trying to out think everyone else by trying to stash a player in the g-league and turn him into a NBA player when he shouldn't have been drafted in the top 50.

When Presti sticks to ABC drafting he is as good as anyone. When he pulls out the crazy stunts it tends to blow up in his face. If he treats every pick as a simple decision of who is the best player to take right now then he will be fine. If he starts reaching for people that fit this crazy idea of what he wants the team to do then it will be harder than it has to be. Find a good coach. Give them the best player possible with each asset you use. That asset could be FA signings or draft picks. It doesn't matter. Get the best talent you can and let the coach work it out. If the coach wants certain types of players or even specific players then try to work with that. Don't draft to some vision from the guy who is up in the office if the coach doesn't think it can work. Build to the coach don't try to force the coach to adjust to players and/or skills sets that they don't believe in.
cjmcallist
Ballboy
Posts: 34
And1: 7
Joined: Jul 27, 2018

Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#14 » by cjmcallist » Mon Jul 15, 2019 2:54 pm

NOTE: it's always hard to know what trades were pursued and fell through, or OKC was outbid on, etc. In general, it seems like Presti does his due diligence and likely explores all possibilities, they just can't all be consummated.

But I've always felt OKC struggled to add complimentary pieces. Kanter, Waiters, Patterson, C. Butler, Fisher, Singler, Abrines, etc. were always just a little bit off.

Russ's first solo year we got the Taj Gibson / Doug McDermott trade. That made sense. But would've been nice to see that type of transaction again. It seems like those depth moves are generally available. In just the last three seasons, these are the types of moves that really pay dividends:

Last Year
-Temple/J. Green were traded for A. Bradley
-R. Bullock was traded for Svi and a 2rp

2016
-PJ Tucker traded for 2 2rps
-Lou Williams traded for HOU frp (low first rounder)
-Bogdonovich traded for a WAS frp (low first rounder at the time)

2015
-C. Lee traded for 4 2rps
-T. Harris traded for Brandon Jennings / Ersan Ilyasova (geez, what a bad ORL trade

Return to Oklahoma City Thunder