Thunder design analysis

[jambalaya]

Will Presti essentially rebuild on the same old design of dribbl drive offense and long defenders or will he do anything new? Shooting first? More distributed passing? Better trained defenders on perimeter?

Will they eventually get more older / smarter guys to balance the rotation? When? 2025? 2027? When will Presti ever field a team that wasn't likely too young to win a title? 2037? 2047? Never?

In his current cast of young guys, it looks like same old, same old priorities. And while I might want to be optimistic about some of the young guys, I have also felt this group of young guys might just be mostly or entirely transitional nobodies to be replaced by all the draft picks down the line.

[Kizz Fastfists]

We don't know how Donovan will try to coach the team or what the offense will look like. We are all hopeful that Russ was the offensive problem and based on the flashes of movement we saw with him out last year there is a glimmer of hope that Donovan will instill a legitimate NBA offense. It is also possible that Donovan is gone in a year and we get to see what a new coach does.

As for when they will go for the veterans to go over the top and go from building to winning we only have one Presti build to look at. Year 1 was Kd/Green. Year 2 added Russ/Ibaka. Year 3 added Harden. Year 4 traded for Perkins and ended the building era for the win now era. Assuming we follow that time line this is year 1 with SGA and the return from Russ. So you have '19-'20, '20-21 and '21-22 as your building years and then in '22-'23 the switch gets flipped to win now. Obviously, that isn't guaranteed as you have to land the right players to flip the switch then. It could be '23-'24 instead. However, given the number of assets Presti should be able to land key players quickly. Next year's draft has a few potential franchise players in it and hopefully Presti will land one I like on draft night. Starting in 2021 he will have multiple first round picks allowing him to potentially move up for the player he wants. The best pick in his first build was a late first he got from Phoenix that he used on Ibaka. If he finds an Ibaka level player with the Denver first he got for Grant we will probably be in really good shape really fast. I don't expect him to hit that again, but there have a been a lot of late firsts lately that were obviously better than their draft position at the time and they showed it as rookies. OKC had just given up all their picks to add those players through the draft recently.

The first piece, SGA, shot better as a rookie than kd did. SGA is a good shooter. You can also could Ferguson as a solid shooter. Diallo was a 2nd round pick so I can forgive his flaw of lacking shooting. Remember GS had a non-shooter in Livingston for a key role player during their championship seasons. You don't need everyone to be a shooter, but you need to have good shooting. Assuming Herro is part of the package for Russ that would be two shooters. That would indicate a different line of thinking for Presti. We will wait to see what happens. I'm holding out hope that Diallo becomes a solid shooter and turns into Iguodala as I think he is capable of hitting that level with every other aspect of his game. Without the shooting he could still be a solid role player, but more along the lines of your last rotation guy not your 6th/7th man.

If Presti drafts an athletic guy who can't shoot in the top 10 next year I will probably not be happy. There are exceptions, i.e. Giannis and Ben Simmons, but generally you want your primary ball handler to be a good shooter OR smart enough not to take shots he can't make. Russ has never been that player and it limited OKC's ceiling his whole career. SGA is a good shooter so that is one problem from Thunder 1.0 that will not carry over to the next generation.

[ThunderBolt]

I heard on the radio that Bazley had a couple of really nice passes. I didn’t watch the game or any highlights so i dont know if that’s true. This isn’t the first time I’ve heard someone mention he’s a good passer.

[Kizz Fastfists]

He's a good ball handler and passer for his size. Bazely seems to have very good hand-eye coordination which allows for a lot of fun moves in space. The problem is he can't shoot his way out of a wet paper bag!!! It is possible that Bazely will find the right person to teach him how to shot and completely retrain his muscle memory in a shooting motion that works for him. It would just require so much work and time that I have a hard time seeing it happen.

Just like Russ was never willing to become disciplined to work on that flaw. Russ just kept working on what he was already good at instead of being willing to learn a new shot and develop one that would work and take his game to a much higher level.

[CROklahoma]

I heard on the radio that Bazley had a couple of really nice passes. I didn’t watch the game or any highlights so i dont know if that’s true. This isn’t the first time I’ve heard someone mention he’s a good passer.

Saw some plays and he definetly has the potential.
Is very raw still, but he needs 200+ games to be consistant in what he is doing.

[jambalaya]

So Kizz, you expect 4-5 years til they are 'there" or the start of there. We agree on that being the likely general timeline of a total rebuild.

Some chance they accelerate with a free agent signing or two.


On Ferguson, hard to say what kind of shooter he is based on 10-11% usage.

But he shot well in the 11 games last season where he shot 10 plus times.

[Kizz Fastfists]

So Kizz, you expect 4-5 years til they are 'there" or the start of there. We agree on that being the likely general timeline of a total rebuild.

Since I'm calling this year 1, I'm going to say I have playoff expectations for year 4 and WCF potential expectations for year 5. We are starting with SGA, Ferguson and the Russ return in year 1. We are adding at least two first round picks in 2020 for year 2. Then two more good first round picks in 2021 as they head into year 3, which could be a playoff year. Then what should be at least two top 18 picks in 2022, and it could be two lottery picks, for the 4th year and what should be a playoff year.

It is hard to project where OKC will pick at this point, but we should have a reasonable idea after the Russ trade is done. It is possible that Kawhi and PG abandon LAC in two years and their picks end up all being top 5. Hopefully, Russ ends up in Miami which almost guarantees the 2021 pick from them is lottery.

Most of the moves Presti has made have come out of nowhere. The Melo trade was speculated and expected when it happened and the Ibaka to Orlando trade was expected. Outside of those two I can't think of any telegraphed trades by Presti. This could mean the Miami, Detroit and Minny stuff is all a smoke screen and are not where Russ is going. Russ could even be playing up the Miami talk just to push a mystery team to up their offer to finish the deal. My assumption on Russ' value is that he will return at least what Mike Conley did. Conley got a young prospect and two first round picks along with quality expiring filler.

I think NOLA is a dark horse candidate. I don't see NOLA giving up Ball since they are rumored to be very high on him, but they could try to use Russ as a mentor and in a year or two transition to Lonzo as the starter. Russ, Jrue, Ingram, Zion and Jaxson Hayes might be a starting 5 they think could get them in the playoffs. The trade would be something like Alexander-Walker, Josh Hart, Favors, Darius Miller, E'Twaun Moore and LAL 2024 unprotected 1st. NOLA would still have Lonzo and Redick coming off the bench. It is also possible that NOLA would keep Moore and Hart by sending Lonzo to a 3rd team for a prospect or pick that gets sent to OKC.

[1bigfan13]

The ugly truth that I haven't seen many mention as to why OKC had a hard time building a competitive roster post-Durant is there aren't many impact players out there willing to take a discount to play in OKC. This includes Westbrook. I know most want to act like he did the Thunder a huge favor by showing loyalty but in reality all he did was take the most money he could possibly take.

Maybe I'm forgetting someone but the only player who didn't take the max money was Victor Oladipo. He left some on the table. Everyone else made sure they squeezed OKC for every dollar they could get.Again, this includes Westbrook.

Now think back over the last 5 years and look around the league and how when other superstars team up.......they almost always take less than the max so that their new teams have enough cap room to pursue additional QUALITY free agents. OKC has never had that benefit.

All that being said, I Sam Presti still deserves a ton of blame and I'm glad that people are actually starting to point the finger at his shaky moves post-2012 Finals.

[thor19]

I think we make a combination. We are going to get two to three players that will not be as good as Westbrook, Kd , or Harden. But we get more iq, more passing. I think something like Denver that they have good players but some people dont consider they have a superstar in jokic or murray, some say they are star at least, but they have a well balanced team.

[jake_swivel]

I heard on the radio that Bazley had a couple of really nice passes. I didn’t watch the game or any highlights so i dont know if that’s true. This isn’t the first time I’ve heard someone mention he’s a good passer.

Watch on YouTube

[ThunderBolt]

I heard on the radio that Bazley had a couple of really nice passes. I didn’t watch the game or any highlights so i dont know if that’s true. This isn’t the first time I’ve heard someone mention he’s a good passer.

Watch on YouTube

The drive along the baseline was most impressive.

[spearsy23]

The problem with expecting presti to change is that he had a crap ton of success with the old design.

[Kizz Fastfists]

The problem with expecting presti to change is that he had a crap ton of success with the old design.

That is why I think anyone expecting drastic changes is kidding themselves. The hope is that he moves shooting up the list a bit. I'm not going to expect him to take a pure shooter who can do nothing else over an athletic freak. I just hope he starts picking athletes that are already average shooters or at least have a solid mid-range game and just need to extend to the 3pt line. If he eliminates the Roberson and Huestis types that can't shoot at all and goes for more of the OG and Ferguson types who are more traditional 3&D types then that would be a slight adjustment that could have significant impact.

Presti is never going to be the guy that says that 5'11 kid that can dribble, pass and shoot is worth a shot. He's going to take the 6'8 athletic defensive freak that bounces the ball off his leg and air balls it from the corner instead. However, those are never the only two options. There is the middle ground of a 6'6 guy that plays solid defense, shoots 35% from 3 and can drive to the rim in a straight line and can make the extra pass to get the team a better shot. There is no chance that guy is a HR, but he can be a solid double which is what OKC hasn't been getting since the Adams pick. If Presti had kept his pick and just collected singles and doubles to go with Russ, kd and Ibaka they might have won a championship. Instead he traded picks for strikeouts and kept chasing boom or busts while trying to out think everyone else and taking risk that was completely uncalled for. McGary was an uncalled for risk. Someone you knew had an issue leaving marijuana alone and was only in the draft because of a failed drug test. Huestis was trying to out think everyone else by trying to stash a player in the g-league and turn him into a NBA player when he shouldn't have been drafted in the top 50.

When Presti sticks to ABC drafting he is as good as anyone. When he pulls out the crazy stunts it tends to blow up in his face. If he treats every pick as a simple decision of who is the best player to take right now then he will be fine. If he starts reaching for people that fit this crazy idea of what he wants the team to do then it will be harder than it has to be. Find a good coach. Give them the best player possible with each asset you use. That asset could be FA signings or draft picks. It doesn't matter. Get the best talent you can and let the coach work it out. If the coach wants certain types of players or even specific players then try to work with that. Don't draft to some vision from the guy who is up in the office if the coach doesn't think it can work. Build to the coach don't try to force the coach to adjust to players and/or skills sets that they don't believe in.

[cjmcallist]

NOTE: it's always hard to know what trades were pursued and fell through, or OKC was outbid on, etc. In general, it seems like Presti does his due diligence and likely explores all possibilities, they just can't all be consummated.

But I've always felt OKC struggled to add complimentary pieces. Kanter, Waiters, Patterson, C. Butler, Fisher, Singler, Abrines, etc. were always just a little bit off.

Russ's first solo year we got the Taj Gibson / Doug McDermott trade. That made sense. But would've been nice to see that type of transaction again. It seems like those depth moves are generally available. In just the last three seasons, these are the types of moves that really pay dividends:

Last Year
-Temple/J. Green were traded for A. Bradley
-R. Bullock was traded for Svi and a 2rp

2016
-PJ Tucker traded for 2 2rps
-Lou Williams traded for HOU frp (low first rounder)
-Bogdonovich traded for a WAS frp (low first rounder at the time)

2015
-C. Lee traded for 4 2rps
-T. Harris traded for Brandon Jennings / Ersan Ilyasova (geez, what a bad ORL trade

[jambalaya]

a ramble but fwiw:

http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=-1106328546

Here you can find luck-adjusted RPM (adjusted for opponent 3pt shooting which is considered small sample luck influenced and not really a reflection of defensive skill- a plausible argument but probably not totally true) and RAPM four factors.

What do the estimates say of the young and other players last season? Starting with offense and mostly at factor level. (Defense maybe later.)

SGA- kinda weak luck adjusted total impact. No factor on offensive is much more than barely meh. Team getting to line and offensive rebounding look really weak. Raw on /off data offers same conclusions. If you count of him to run team, drive paint and get team free throws by himself, you are probably going to be disappointed. You're going to really need strong rebounder at center (and / or elsewhere) compared to with Russ.

Ferguson, some estimated positive impact on team efg%. Not sure how. But horrendous impact on team ftr way, way exceeds that. Playing these two together sounds like a recipe for an offense very lacking in ftr punch.

Diallo, even more negative impact on team ft rate. Big help on offensive rebounding? Maybe from the bad misses?

Schroeder looks real good on estimated team ft rate impact.

Muscala big impact on ftr rate. Moderate negative on offensive rebounding.

Noel, big negative impacts on team shooting and ft rate.

Adams, big positive impacts on team ft rate and offensive rebounding.

Burton. may think of himself as an offensive player but he is negative impact on offense including big negative on ft rate. Good on defense.

Roberson. offensive rebounding positive outweighs team efg% negative.

Chris Paul, not as positive on luck adjusted as on unadjusted. Real weak on ft rate and also negative on offensive rebounding far outweighs modest estimated impacts on team efg% and turnover rates.

Gallinari, really strong on offensive RAPM. Top 5 in league on estimated team ft rate impact. 26th on impact on team efg%. Doubt they keep him or even try but when healthy he helps offense and is estimated a net positive on defense too from not fouling much and defensive rebounding.


This information should be considered when constructing lineups. If trying to win more or trying to lose more. With regard to team ft rate, probably ought to try to have one of Gallinari, Schroeder, Muscala or Adams on the court with most lineups, if trying to win with decent ft rate. Probably should avoid 2 or more players with bad ft rate impacts on court at same time. Since you have to play a PG who is bad on ft rate, you'd ideally not compound the problem with Ferguson, Diallo or Burton. Will want to see how Bazley and Dort look on this. Noel would add to this issue. He probably doesn't fit long-term design.

If Gallinari, Schroeder and Muscala all leave (as expected), the current mixed team bag on ft rate tilts to very negative. Adams mitigates a bit if he stays but not nearly enough. And he might go too. Presti has to show improvement here. Thru player development and / or player change. Unless he thinks he can win without being good at own ft rate. A direct conflict with initial Thunder design. Being poor also on 3 pt rate and makes (now and projected as of now) would essentially doom the offense to lower end.


Being negative on estimated team ft rate impact could come from various subfactors, different for each player. Not driving or not driving effectively for contact. Not being an outside threat and clogging the lane for others. Not making fast decisions with the ball. Not cutting enough. Etc. A team could find out more about the hows and whys if they really wanted to. Being capable of an effective drive and having a video clip of it is not enough.


Bottomline: Presti is just early in the building of what's next but nothing about the pieces for the future so far really screams shooting, driving or defensive quality yet. Even SGA. He looks ok but will have to get a lot better.

[ThunderBolt]

That assessment of shai is excessively critical. It’s way too soon to draw any conclusions of what he won’t be able to do. There is a reason Carmelo projections show him with all star potential.

[jambalaya]

I think it would probably make sense to go with these two lineups a lot.

The (mostly) likely short-termers

Chris Paul
Terrance Ferguson
Andre Roberson
Danilo Gallinari
Steven Adams

The possible future base (not end product)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Luguentz Dort
Darius Bazley
Mike Muscala
Nerlens Noel

Donovan will probably start SGA over Ferguson. He'll mess with all sorts of hybrids. But he should play that younger lineup a decent amount and see how it does.

[spearsy23]

I think it would probably make sense to go with these two lineups a lot.

The (mostly) likely short-termers

Chris Paul
Terrance Ferguson
Andre Roberson
Danilo Gallinari
Steven Adams

The possible future base (not end product)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Luguentz Dort
Darius Bazley
Mike Muscala
Nerlens Noel

Donovan will probably start SGA over Ferguson. He'll mess with all sorts of hybrids. But he should play that younger lineup a decent amount and see how it does.

Why would you have Noel and dort in the future base category, and Ferguson and Adams in the short term?

Also Muscala, but I'm assuming that's just because you were rounding out a lineup.

[ThunderBolt]

I want the design and identity of this team to be comprised of guys like Shai. Obviously we’ll need some star talent but I want to see a team that is committed to the team concept and plays that way on both ends of the court. I’ve always thought the 2004 pistons or grit and grind grizzlies fit what I would like to see with OKC.

[jambalaya]

Adams has high prospect to either be traded or walk out on his choice, imo.

Dort has possibilty to work out. I am higher than most on that. Just a guess.

Never thought highly of Ferguson. He fit last season, if he did, based on playing with two superstars. That won't be the case in a year.

Yeah Muscala was mainly fill in but Presti might make him more important than most would.