fishercob wrote:With the tank watch all but over, we can now focus on what could end up being the biggest night in franchise history.
The lottery will be held on May 30 -- in NYC this year and not in Secaucus.
With the Wizards all but locked in to the second worst record, the Wizards' odds will break out as follows:
19.9% chance at #1 pick
18.8% chance at #2 pick (38.7% chance of picking 1 or 2)
17.1% chance at #3 pick (55.8% chance of picking top 3)
31.9% chance at #4 pick (87.7% chance of pick top 4)
12.3% chance at #5 pick (44.2% chance of picking 4th or 5th)
Provided we can hold on to the #2 lotto spot -- and even if we can't and end up splitting 2/3 with New Orleans -- I am starting to feel very hopeful about our chances of landing one of Davis or Beal.
Obviously as stated above, we have about a 4 in 10 chance of picking top two.
But we have an almost 9 in 10 chance of picking top 4, and because of who else is in the lottery, their needs, and where they are likely to be picked, there just are not a ton of scenarios where Beal is off the board if we pick top 4.
Let's go team by team, for giggles. Assume everyone takes Davis is they pick first. Obviously this is based on today's standings; I'll probably update this in a week.
Charlotte: Just drafted Kemba. Recently drafted Gerald Henderson. Gaping hole at SF and PF. Very likely to take either Robinson or MKG over Beal.
New Orleans: Gordon is their best player. Very likely to take Robinson or MKG over Beal.
Sacramento: Just drafted Jimmer and Tyreke Evans. Isaiah Thomas might be better than both. Just signed Marcus Thornton. Not taking a SG.
Cleveland (20.4% chance of picking 2nd or 3rd): Most credible threat to move up and pick Beal. They have nothing on the wings, like us. Their shooting need isn't quite as dire, so they could conceivably prefer MKG. If h's off the board, they definitely take Beal over T-Rob (with Thompson and Varajeo in the fold).
Portland (17.5% chance of picking 2nd or 3rd between their two picks): Moderate threat to take Beal. They are not completely bare at SG -- have Wes Matthews and Elliot Williams and potentially Crawford if he doesn't opt out. But Beal is a likely upgrade over those guys and they could be set at forward with Batum and Aldridge. I could see them gambling on Drummond or takign RObinson and moving LMA to center. But Beal has to be considered a possibility.
Toronto (10.7% chance of picking 2nd or 3rd): Badly need shooting. But also have Derozan at SG and desperately need SF and rebounding help. I'd expect Robinson or MKG over Beal.
Golden State (7.2% chance of 2nd or 3rd): This is the Utah pick. Utah cannot move up into the top 3 because GS would then keep the pick. They just traded Ellis so they could play Klay Thompson. I think they'd be much more likely to take MKG (huge hole at SF) or Robinson (could play with either Lee or Bogut and help limit Bogut's minutes).
Detroit (4.4% chance at 2 or 3): Need frontcourt help badly. Have Gordon, Stuckey, Knight, in the backcourt. Prince is signed long term at SF. I think they'd go Robinson if he's there. If not, and they;re choosing between MKG and Beal, i think they go MKG. Could roll the dice on Drummond too,
Milwaukee: Just traded for Monta Ellis. Not taking Beal.
Houston (1.6% chance of 2nd or 3rd): Martin has only one year left on his deal, so Beal could be an option. But they also have Courtney Lee and really need an infusion of young talent up front.
Phoenix: (1.3% chance of 2nd or 3rd) Badly need a young shooting guard. Could take Beal, though I could reasonably see them taking RObinson.
So i think our scenarios of not getting Davis or Beal are limited to:
--Cleveland jumping ahead of us choosing Beal over MKG
--Portland jumping us and Robinson is already off the board
--Houston or Phoenix getting insanely lucky
I really, really, like those chances -- especially given YODA's assessment of Beal's freshman year comparing well with Harden's, JOrdan's and Drexler's. Here's hoping.
