2023 NBA Draft Thread

[yosemiteben]

To reiterate the point: their percentages were close but one did it on much higher volume so they need to be taken with a grain of salt. It's entirely plausible that had Scoot shot as much, his numbers would've dropped, which means it's not as simple as saying "the shooting isn't a ton different"

I think it's a fair point comparing him to Ant. A massive difference for me though is that Scoot was an 18 year old figuring out how to be the PG and primary distributor for a professional team and shot just 16% of his team's FGAs, whereas Ant was in college, played next to a PG, and shot 27% of his team's FGAs.

Ant was much more about hunting his shot generally against inferior talent, whereas Scoot had PG responsibilities, shot less generally, and was playing against superior talent.

You say it's a fair point and then immediately counter it by laying out why they're completely different situations

Correct. It's worth considering, but it's also worth taking context into account.

[SWedd523]

Now lets look at similar PGs from the college ranks

From 2018:

-Collin Sexton 33% on 4 3PA.. not quite
-SGA low volume (1.5 3PA) but much higher 40%

2019:

-Darius Garland 48% on 4.6 attempts... nope
-Coby White 35% on 6.6 attempts... nope

2020:

-Melo (pro in Australia... no idea where their 3 line is) 25% on 6.7 attempts. He might be the closest thing yet, but he shot a significantly higher volume
-Killian Hayes France stats were all over the place. 67% on 0.3 in 18... 19% on 2.2 in 19... 39% on 4.1 in 20. We may? have a match

2021:

-Jalen Suggs 34% on 3.5... close-ish
-Davion Mitchell 32% on 2.5 as a soph... close

2022:

-Jaden Ivey 36% on 5... no

<break>

Okay now let's look at the guys who had similar numbers to Scoot

Melo: 35% on 5.1 year one, 39% on 7.5 year two, 38% on 10.6 year three. Big jump from pre-draft and on huge volume.

<break>

Hayes: 28% on 2.8 year one, 26% on 2.5 year two, 28% on 3.8 year three. Pretty rough and no improvement. Not good.

<break>

Suggs: 21% on 4.1 as a rookie and 33 on 3.8 as a soph. Solid improvement YoY but still below his college numbers

<break>

Mitchell: 32% 4.3 as a rookie and 32% on 2.5 as a soph. Since college he's been dead nuts same from range. No improvement or worsening


So really, outside of Melo. There hasn't been a PG drafted aside from Melo who has shown real improvement in their outside shooting either in terms of percentages or volume. I'm not seeing any recent evidence that supports the claim that we can just hand-wave assume Scoot is going to change.

[KingCat]

So basement, floor, ceiling for our prospects?

Scoot: B - Emmanuel Mudiay, F - Current Westbrook, C - Prime Derrick Rose

Miller: B - Marvin Williams, F - Harrison Barnes, C - Tatum

Amen: B - MKG, F - Current Giddey, C - Idk really, Manu Giniobli? Prime Iggy?

[Diop]

Australia has fiba court measurements

[luciano-davidwesley]

2020:

-Melo (pro in Australia... no idea where their 3 line is) 25% on 6.7 attempts. He might be the closest thing yet, but he shot a significantly higher volume

I think the NBL and NCAA three point line are the same 22 feet 1 and 3/4 inches.

NBA is 23 feet 9 and the corners are 22 feet.

[luciano-davidwesley]

Australia has fiba court measurements

The NCAA Playing Rules Oversight Panel approved moving the 3-point line to the international basketball distance of 22 feet, 1¾ inches in men’s basketball.

The rule will be effective for the 2019-20 season in Division I. Due to the potential financial impact of placing a new line on courts, the new 3-point line will go into effect for the 2020-21 season in Divisions II and III.

https://www.ncaa.org/news/2019/6/5/men-s-basketball-3-point-line-extended-to-international-distance.aspx

[Rich4114]

I think we should just let Clifford make the pick to reverse the curse of not letting him get his way with Donavan Mitchell over Monk.

[KingCat]

To me it comes down to what is more likely: Scoot develops into a respectable 3pt shooter or Miller develops into a legitimate secondary ball handler/playmaker.

The reason I lean Scoot regardless is even if he never becomes a great 3pt shooter, I'm willing to bet his game is dynamic enough to be an Allstar level player.

With Miller, if he can't handle and playmake at an NBA level then he is just another Marvin Williams/Harrison Barnes. Yes those two have had solid long NBA careers, but I would rather take a risk to do better with a 2nd pick then taking solid, shooting wing role player.

[Trey24]

Would you rather draft John Wall right now or Tobias Harris?

I go John Wall 10/10 times and he could never shoot although he developed a semi-respectable midrange.

[HornetJail]

Would you rather draft John Wall right now or Tobias Harris?

I go John Wall 10/10 times and he could never shoot although he developed a semi-respectable midrange.

my understanding is it might be a little closer to John Wall vs Khris Middleton

Still going John Wall every time.

[JMAC3]

Would you rather draft John Wall right now or Tobias Harris?

I go John Wall 10/10 times and he could never shoot although he developed a semi-respectable midrange.

my understanding is it might be a little closer to John Wall vs Khris Middleton

Still going John Wall every time.

What about Paul George vs Collin Sexton? Who you taking?

See how pointless it is to assign random players on either end of the spectrum.

[Trey24]

Would you rather draft John Wall right now or Tobias Harris?

I go John Wall 10/10 times and he could never shoot although he developed a semi-respectable midrange.

my understanding is it might be a little closer to John Wall vs Khris Middleton

Still going John Wall every time.

Yeah I guess that is a better comparison.

[Braggins]

Anthony Edwards shot 29% from the college 3pt line his freshman season at Georgia. Scoot shot 32% from the NBA 3pt line this season.

At 19 years old, Scoot shot 32% from NBA 3pt (3.2 attempts per75 poss), 38% on all shots of 15'+, and 75% from the free throw line.

[Braggins]

Would you rather draft John Wall right now or Tobias Harris?

I go John Wall 10/10 times and he could never shoot although he developed a semi-respectable midrange.

my understanding is it might be a little closer to John Wall vs Khris Middleton

Still going John Wall every time.

What about Paul George vs Collin Sexton? Who you taking?

See how pointless it is to assign random players on either end of the spectrum.

from the Scoot thread

Anfernee Simons is 23 yrs old averaging 21 ppg, 4 assists, a knockdown shooter who can also create his own shot and does so efficiently 55% efg% over last two years and yet teams aren't dying to go get him if he was available.

but Jalen Williams is 22 yrs old and averaged 21 ppg for 15 games and 4.5 apg and we are whispering he might be worth the 2nd pick.

That is how much the NBA values wings over small guards.

Simons = small guard / Scoot = Small guard / Williams = wing / Miller = wing / Simons < Williams / Scoot < Miller

[JMAC3]

my understanding is it might be a little closer to John Wall vs Khris Middleton

Still going John Wall every time.

What about Paul George vs Collin Sexton? Who you taking?

See how pointless it is to assign random players on either end of the spectrum.

from the Scoot thread

Anfernee Simons is 23 yrs old averaging 21 ppg, 4 assists, a knockdown shooter who can also create his own shot and does so efficiently 55% efg% over last two years and yet teams aren't dying to go get him if he was available.

but Jalen Williams is 22 yrs old and averaged 21 ppg for 15 games and 4.5 apg and we are whispering he might be worth the 2nd pick.

That is how much the NBA values wings over small guards.

Simons = small guard / Scoot = Small guard / Williams = wing / Miller = wing / Simons < Williams / Scoot < Miller

There are an abundance of small guards that can score the ball in the NBA and none of them really are that hard to get via trade. Simons, Cam Thomas, Rozier, Poole, Sexton...

Who are the wings that can get you 20 per game that are available for the same price?
Oubre?

Halfway decent wings are expensive. Nets turned down 3 firsts for Bridges before he had even played 3 games in Brooklyn, OG apparently is too good to trade for 7th pick or 3 firsts. If you aren't drafting one in the lottery they don't grow on trees sadly.

[JMAC3]

Anthony Edwards shot 29% from the college 3pt line his freshman season at Georgia. Scoot shot 32% from the NBA 3pt line this season.

At 19 years old, Scoot shot 32% from NBA 3pt (3.2 attempts per75 poss), 38% on all shots of 15'+, and 75% from the free throw line.

Notice how you didn't mention Edwards attempts per 75 poss. Hmmmmm wonder why

[Braggins]

It was already pointed out that Edwards shot a higher volume. That wasn't the aspect of the comparison that was being misrepresented. I included Scoots per possession attempts to make it still clear that he was a lower volume 3pt shooter. There is no dispute Edwards shot a higher volume.

[JMAC3]

Anthony Edwards shot 29% from the college 3pt line his freshman season at Georgia. Scoot shot 32% from the NBA 3pt line this season.

At 19 years old, Scoot shot 32% from NBA 3pt (3.2 attempts per75 poss), 38% on all shots of 15'+, and 75% from the free throw line.

Notice how you didn't mention Edwards attempts per 75 poss. Hmmmmm wonder why

Probably because it was 10.5 and that dwarfs Scoot's number. They are nothing alike as shooters.

That is like saying Al Horford and Curry are the same level of shooter because Al shot 44.5% this year.

[Braggins]

I'm not the one who keeps intentionally trying to misrepresent/distort the shooting comparisons. Its been pointed out a million times that Scoots full season 3pt shooting sample was 32.4% (and ive posted his per75 attempts plenty).

I just keep posting Scoots actual shooting numbers. I didn't even give an opinion on who was better, just corrected the numbers and pointed out the obvious context that was being left out. I wasn't trying to trick anyone about Anthony Edwards 3pt volume...

[JMAC3]

I'm not the one who keeps intentionally trying to misrepresent/distort the shooting comparisons. Its been pointed out a million times that Scoots full season 3pt shooting sample was 32.4% (and ive posted his per75 attempts plenty).

I just keep posting his actual shooting numbers. I wasn't trying to trick anyone about Anthony Edwards 3pt volume...

When have I distorted his shooting #s?

I have asked for a guy that shot similar # of attempts their final year of college and turned into a good NBA shooter. Not sure you have been able to come up with one player.