Wanted to get some ideas out on paper.
Basically the main reason it sucks to stretch Batum over the next three years is because it's dead cap. You can't include dead cap in a trade so we are stuck with that for the following two years no matter what. A player at 10 million would be much better because you could eventually trade them as an expiring, but dead cap is just dead.
So what is that worth for us?
I think it is unlikely at this point Rozier or Zeller are heading back to Boston in a sign and trade. I think it much more likely that we would be helping Boston create a 30 million trade exception that they can use to bring in a player later in the year (Capela, Harrison Barnes, Steven Adams, Aaron Gordon etc..). Without the exception Boston would basically be hard capped and not able to add any additional significant pieces throughout the season. With the exception it allows them to pull in a meaningful player into the exception without having to send anything back in terms of salary. What Warriors just did with Oubre, honestly trade exceptions are a bit OVERPOWERED in my mind.
Most likely Boston will send us future second round pick or two for the exception. Unfortunately they do not own any additional future firsts- can't believe we can finally say that.
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailedSo we basically could try to deal someone valued at 10+ million on our team to a team with cap space. The only teams with real cap space right now are the Knicks. One of Atlanta or Sacramento will have cap space depending if Bogdanovic becomes a sign and trade. If Atlanta sends out some salary they will still have cap space, but if they sign him outright Sacramentowill have roughly 9-10 million if Cap Space. They also have not used their MLE yet, so they have some options to still improve their team.
Kings (without Bog) Have about 9 million in cap space, so a few options would:
1. Send Rozier (18.9 Mil) to them for Cory Joseph. Joseph is owed 12.6 million this year so we would be cutting 6.3 million from our books, which might be enough due to backloading Hayward contract. Joseph is owed 12.6 million next year but only 2.4 million of it is guaranteed. They might want a second rounder to take on Rozier contract next year, or they might throw in a second rounder for the upgrade to Rozier. (Not sure how they feel about players, this is just me focusing on Dollars).
2. Send Batum (27.4 million) to Kings for Harrison Barnes(22.2 million) So this would only be saving us 5.2 million from our books, so this is 1 million short of the previous deal I offered so it would be even more difficult to backload Hayward deal and this obviously takes stretching Batum out of the deal because he is included in it. Kings would be taking significant hit to their team for this year by doing this, but most in the league view Barnes as a negative contract with another 3/60 on his deal left.
This is where the deal could get tricky, because again this would not be enough space so there's a chance the Hornets would have to add someone else to the deal. Monk could make sense and that would get the Hornets under the cap, but is Batum and Monk for 3 years of Barnes a bad deal? Barnes deal is front loaded so it goes 22, 20, 18 which is not as bad as it once was thought to be. Maybe the Kings would throw in a few 2nd round picks for dumping Barnes and getting Monk?
This would give the Hornets another solid player on the wing/stretch 4. but I am not sure this is the best deal out there.
Moving onto Hawks (with Bog)
By my calculations of the Hawks giving Gallo 20, Bog 18, Rondo 7.3, and Dunn 4.7 (MLE so doesn't count against the cap) They still have roughly 8 million or so in real cap space.
1. Rozier(18.9) for Snell (12.6) framework could make sense similar to what I was saying above about a Cory Joseph swap. Again not sure what team sends extra second round picks back and forth.
2. Would be more complicated, but Batum (27.4) for Capela (16 million) Could have some possibilities if the Hornets would be willing to throw in a future 1st round rounder. The Hawks invested a top 6 pick on Okongwu and have Collins still as well. They could be having buyers remorse and willing to eat Batum's deal for the future savings and first.
Lastly I will circle back to Knicks who still have roughly 20+ million
1. They take Rozier 18.9 into their cap space, not sure if we can get something back like a second rounder or so or maybe they would prefer to dump Dennis Smith Jr back (5.6) or French Frank back (6.1) either way we would be getting 12 million or so space which is enough that we can keep Batum without stretching his deal.
2. We send them Batum (27.4) for Randle (18.9). This opens up 8.5 million in cap space for Hayward so we do not have to cut or stretch anyone on the roster. However, the Knicks would need an asset back for doing this deal. Randle is under contract next season for 19.8 million but only 4 million is guaranteed. That means we could cut him and only have 4 million in dead cap compared to 9 that season and 9 the following. Also, Randle is a decent player, but nothing spectacular. He would give us a solid bench big to play some minutes at Center and PF, either way though he is a major upgrade over Batum corpse/Batum 18 million dead money moving forward.
The Question is what would we be willing to give up to entice the Knicks to do this deal. We could give them a future first obviously protected or swap rights potentially. We could give them Bridges. We could throw in Monk. On deals we throw in Monk or Bridges we could potentially get Knox or DSJ/French Frank back without losing the cap space we need. Just depends on how much the Knicks value the talent upgrade between the prospects swapped.
Thank you for coming to my TedTalk. Really the thing I learned through this experience is there are limited options in order to not stretch Batum. We put ourselves into a difficult position, but the opportunity to add Hayward I believe will be worth it in the end.
Let me know which of these options you prefer. Thanks.