Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals

[Roger Murdock]

Raptors over is far from a lock. They were one of the luckiest teams in the NBA last year with injuries and missed games and have little depth. Almost all of their starters were towards league lead in MPG.

If Toronto had the injury luck of Cleveland, Chicago, Miami, etc last year they would have comfortably missed the playoffs.

Siakam missed 14 games.
Anunoby missed 34 games.
Vanvleet missed 17 games.
Trent missed 12 games.

Tell me more about this injury luck and lack of missed games? As you say, they had no depth, and their best three players missed a combined 65/246 possible games. That's more than a quarter of the season. Yet they managed to eke out almost 50 wins with lots of missed time and no depth. They're a lock to beat that 44.5 line, which assumes that they are a worse team than last year even though their youth has a year to improve and they have more depth.

That was an idiotic post. Roger Murdock is too good of a name for that quality of post.

Appreciate the vote of confidence in my postings, but its objectively true most teams, especially competing for playoffs in the East, had considerably worse injury luck than the Raps last season.

[timO]

OKC over 25.5 is free money

Last 2 years of tank and shutting down players were 25-24 wins, so next year they will win 30-35 for sure.

[AussieCeltic]

Siakam missed 14 games.
Anunoby missed 34 games.
Vanvleet missed 17 games.
Trent missed 12 games.

Tell me more about this injury luck and lack of missed games? As you say, they had no depth, and their best three players missed a combined 65/246 possible games. That's more than a quarter of the season. Yet they managed to eke out almost 50 wins with lots of missed time and no depth. They're a lock to beat that 44.5 line, which assumes that they are a worse team than last year even though their youth has a year to improve and they have more depth.

That was an idiotic post. Roger Murdock is too good of a name for that quality of post.

Appreciate the vote of confidence in my postings, but its objectively true most teams, especially competing for playoffs in the East, had considerably worse injury luck than the Raps last season.

Here is a good graph.

Read on Twitter

[QingJames]

Raptors over is far from a lock. They were one of the luckiest teams in the NBA last year with injuries and missed games and have little depth. Almost all of their starters were towards league lead in MPG.

If Toronto had the injury luck of Cleveland, Chicago, Miami, etc last year they would have comfortably missed the playoffs.

Siakam missed 14 games.
Anunoby missed 34 games.
Vanvleet missed 17 games.
Trent missed 12 games.

Tell me more about this injury luck and lack of missed games? As you say, they had no depth, and their best three players missed a combined 65/246 possible games. That's more than a quarter of the season. Yet they managed to eke out almost 50 wins with lots of missed time and no depth. They're a lock to beat that 44.5 line, which assumes that they are a worse team than last year even though their youth has a year to improve and they have more depth.

Did you follow last season? Thats barely anything. Most starters missed 15 games last year. The only rotation player who missed an unusual amount of time last year for the Raptors was Anunoby and hes the 4th best guy on the team.

Heat: Butler missed 25. Adebayo 26. Lowry 19. Herro 16.
Bulls: LaVine missed 15. Ball missed 47. Caruso missed 41. PWill missed 60.
Cavs: Garland missed 14. Allen missed 26. Mobley missed 13. Lauri missed 21. Sexton missed 71.
76ers: Missed 61 games out of Harden/Simmons, Embiid missed 14, Green missed 21
Bucks: Giannis missed 15 games, Jrue missed 15, Middleton 16, Portis 10, Allen 16, Pat 17, Lopez 69

You get it. A starter missing 10-15 games last year was par for the course. Raptors had it easy, sans a bit longer hold out from OG.

Seems like it was all pretty comparable among teams' top players to me, with the exception of Miami who seems to have suffered a longer duration of missed top among their top 4 than other teams.

Don't really rate guys like Sexton, who Cleveland was almost certainly better without, or roleplayers like Connaughton and Green. I didn't include guys like Birch who missed 27 games or Dragic, who made it clear he wasn't interested in playing for the team, or Precious who missed 10. Also, you admit that the Raps had **** depth so not really sure how you can say a team like Chicago had worse luck with injuries to their roleplayers when the Raptors went without quality bench players the entire season.

Those guys missing time is obviously less important than a team's top 3-4 players, and it seems like the Raptors top 3 guys missed as much or more combined time than all those other teams you listed except for Miami.

Chicago: LaVine + DeRozan + Vucevic = 30 missed games.
Miami: Butler + Adebayo + Lowry = 70 missed games.
Cleveland: Garland + Allen + Mobley = 53 missed games.
Philly: Embiid + Maxey + Simmons/Harden (weird to equivocate this with injury luck when Simmons' missed time had nothing to do with injuries or luck but w/e) = 82 missed games.
Milwaukee: Giannis + Jrue + Middleton = 46
Toronto: Siakam + Anunoby + Vanvleet = 65 Missed games.

So seems to me that the Raptors were right in line with 'bad injury luck' that other teams had last year to their top players. Again, if you want to quibble about roleplayers I'll just say that not having roleplayers is worse than losing roleplayers for 15-40 games.

[Roger Murdock]

Yeah if you disregard everyone elses injuries. Sexton was a starter and 24ppg player and he missed the entire season. The Cavs fell apart because they needed bodies who could play and nobody else could score except Garland. Hell yes him missing games mattered.

Harden/Simmons missing 3/4 of the season matters, because next year, they are going to get a hell of a lot more games out of that salary spot.

Your 'corrections' include completely removing teams that were gashed from injuries in an effort to normalize their luck to the Raptors. See the chart that Aussie Celtic posted. Only teams with better injury luck than the Raptors were the Celtics (who I did *not* include in this comparison, because like the Raptors they were lucky) and Utah, who is clearly going to fall off.

[Roger Murdock]

That was an idiotic post. Roger Murdock is too good of a name for that quality of post.

Appreciate the vote of confidence in my postings, but its objectively true most teams, especially competing for playoffs in the East, had considerably worse injury luck than the Raps last season.

Here is a good graph.

Read on Twitter

Really good visual.

Basically Raptors were at bottom in terms of total games lost and total VORP lost which makes sense.

[tmorgan]

OKC over 25.5 is free money

Last 2 years of tank and shutting down players were 25-24 wins, so next year they will win 30-35 for sure.

Unless you know Presti’s plan (in his head, not in public statements), you’re making a mistake.

The exact same thing is true for Weaver and the Pistons at 26.5. I don’t claim to know if we’re explicitly tanking for one more year or not, so there’s just no way to evaluate the “slight improvement” line.

[Beethoven]

Betting over for gsw looks to be a sure win wager I mean cmon 52 games??

Its a development year for GS. They have 3 lottery picks who are all going to be playing big roles this season and be integrated into the main rotation. Its going to be a rocky year for the team, and Kerr has shown he prioritizes health and rest over regular season wins. They should still be a top 4 seed, and thats all that matters.

I meant pho I corrected myself earlier.

[jasonxxx102]

Straight up LOL the Cavs got 41.5. They won 44 games last season with half their team being out for a large portion of the season.

Everybody is coming back and they added a couple more pieces.

Easy money

[QingJames]

Yeah if you disregard everyone elses injuries. Sexton was a starter and 24ppg player and he missed the entire season. The Cavs fell apart because they needed bodies who could play and nobody else could score except Garland. Hell yes him missing games mattered.

Sexton is just not good my man, I don't view him as a positive contributor at all and that's not a fringe opinion, so we'll just have to agree to disagree on that. I think him being absent made the Cavs much better by unlocking Garland.

Harden/Simmons missing 3/4 of the season matters, because next year, they are going to get a hell of a lot more games out of that salary spot.

I agree it matters but it has nothing to do with injury luck. Simmons didn't miss all of his games in Philly because of bad luck due to injuries. Your whole argument is that the Raptors had better injury luck than most other teams, so Philly really isn't relevant to the conversation.

Your 'corrections' include completely removing teams that were gashed from injuries in an effort to normalize their luck to the Raptors. See the chart that Aussie Celtic posted. Only teams with better injury luck than the Raptors were the Celtics (who I did *not* include in this comparison, because like the Raptors they were lucky) and Utah, who is clearly going to fall off.

I just don't weigh that chart super highly because it includes a bunch of roleplayers who missed time, which matters much less than a team's top 3-4 players missing time. I don't see the numbers behind the VORP bubbles, maybe you can list them? Because just eyeballing it the VORP that the Raps lost due to injury looks pretty equal with CLE, is slightly more than PHI and MIL, is slightly less than CHI, and is much less than MIA (which I have already conceded had much worse injury luck than most other teams).

So what I read from that chart is that the Raptors lost about the same value from injuries as those other teams (except Miami) but had a fewer 'total games lost to injury' because that chart is counting all the scrub roleplayers that missed time on those teams who weren't significant contributors to overall win rate.

You're unlucky if your top players miss significantly more time than other teams' top players. The Raptors top players missed roughly the equivalent of or more time than the teams you listed, with the exception of Miami. That part isn't disputable, so your whole argument is that the Raptors were lucky to be a playoff team because they didn't have significant injuries to guys like... Yuta Watanabe and Chris Boucher? Okay, man.

[Roger Murdock]

‘Everyone is coming back’ is a fallacy

Most teams are going to be significantly healthier next year. You can improve YoY and have your record deteriorate because the average team is going to have more players healthy. The impact of COViD + condensed seasons + some bad luck led to a ton of missed games. In addition, some stars like Kyrie and Ben Simmons voluntarily sat out which is unprecedented.

On average, the team you are going to be facing will be healthier and stronger last year than it was last season.

Some teams have pretty massive upswings due to injuries / missed games

-Clippers in George / Leonard
-Nuggets in Murray / Porter
-Cavs, Bulls gain half their rotation
-76ers gain 3/4 a season of Harden

Etc…

If a team was mostly healthy they will need significant internal improvement from young players to offset the more difficult competition to break even. This is why Raptors and Celtics lines seem fishy to me.

Lines that jump out are Warriors (tons of injuries last year why would they regress), Memphis (mission JJJ for a lot of the year + they were a 52 win team with Ja healthy and like a 68 win pace team with him hurt), Miami had a million injuries last year why should they be 6 wins worse…

[pj0tr]

I don't think the Suns win 64 games again, but if their O/U is at 52.5...

53-29 certainly seems doable for them.

I do not think that the Suns will be the top seed in the west next year, but I certainly think they'll be good enough for a top 4 seed.

[jasonxxx102]

Yeah if you disregard everyone elses injuries. Sexton was a starter and 24ppg player and he missed the entire season. The Cavs fell apart because they needed bodies who could play and nobody else could score except Garland. Hell yes him missing games mattered.

Sexton is just not good my man, I don't view him as a positive contributor at all and that's not a fringe opinion, so we'll just have to agree to disagree on that. I think him being absent made the Cavs much better by unlocking Garland.

Harden/Simmons missing 3/4 of the season matters, because next year, they are going to get a hell of a lot more games out of that salary spot.

I agree it matters but it has nothing to do with injury luck. Simmons didn't miss all of his games in Philly because of bad luck due to injuries. Your whole argument is that the Raptors had better injury luck than most other teams, so Philly really isn't relevant to the conversation.

Your 'corrections' include completely removing teams that were gashed from injuries in an effort to normalize their luck to the Raptors. See the chart that Aussie Celtic posted. Only teams with better injury luck than the Raptors were the Celtics (who I did *not* include in this comparison, because like the Raptors they were lucky) and Utah, who is clearly going to fall off.

I just don't weigh that chart super highly because it includes a bunch of roleplayers who missed time, which matters much less than a team's top 3-4 players missing time. I don't see the numbers behind the VORP bubbles, maybe you can list them? Because just eyeballing it the VORP that the Raps lost due to injury looks pretty equal with CLE, is slightly more than PHI and MIL, is slightly less than CHI, and is much less than MIA (which I have already conceded had much worse injury luck than most other teams).

So what I read from that chart is that the Raptors lost about the same value from injuries as those other teams (except Miami) but had a fewer 'total games lost to injury' because that chart is counting all the scrub roleplayers that missed time on those teams who weren't significant contributors to overall win rate.

You're unlucky if your top players miss significantly more time than other teams' top players. The Raptors top players missed roughly the equivalent of or more time than the teams you listed, with the exception of Miami. That part isn't disputable, so your whole argument is that the Raptors were lucky to be a playoff team because they didn't have significant injuries to guys like... Yuta Watanabe and Chris Boucher? Okay, man.

Nobody is saying Sexton is “good” but he’s a hell of a lot better than a Brandon Goodwin and Rajon Rondo. Not to mention without Garland there were no other shot creators.

Acting like Sexton wouldn’t have improved the Cavs down the stretch when Garland was out is just a bad take

[Roger Murdock]

I’m unsure how to quantify it exactly but some teams got railroaded all at once.

Cavs had a lot of injuries the first half of the season but they were mostly when other teams weren’t healthy and they were a bit spaced out.

Then end of year we were basically down Sexton + 2 of Allen / Mobley / Garland at all times and when 3/4 of your best players are out every game winning is impossible.

[Dubnation]

I'm surprised GSW and DEN have same predicted win totals. I guess it's those 41 home games in Denver.

Warriors have no reason to have their foot on the gas in the regular season. They will let the young guys get some much needed experience.

Correct. The 2016 experience was a valuable teacher.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[spanishninja]

I don't think the Suns win 64 games again, but if their O/U is at 52.5...

53-29 certainly seems doable for them.

I do not think that the Suns will be the top seed in the west next year, but I certainly think they'll be good enough for a top 4 seed.

the main thing for the Suns is they will not try for top seed as hard as they did last season

[QingJames]

Yeah if you disregard everyone elses injuries. Sexton was a starter and 24ppg player and he missed the entire season. The Cavs fell apart because they needed bodies who could play and nobody else could score except Garland. Hell yes him missing games mattered.

Sexton is just not good my man, I don't view him as a positive contributor at all and that's not a fringe opinion, so we'll just have to agree to disagree on that. I think him being absent made the Cavs much better by unlocking Garland.

Harden/Simmons missing 3/4 of the season matters, because next year, they are going to get a hell of a lot more games out of that salary spot.

I agree it matters but it has nothing to do with injury luck. Simmons didn't miss all of his games in Philly because of bad luck due to injuries. Your whole argument is that the Raptors had better injury luck than most other teams, so Philly really isn't relevant to the conversation.

Your 'corrections' include completely removing teams that were gashed from injuries in an effort to normalize their luck to the Raptors. See the chart that Aussie Celtic posted. Only teams with better injury luck than the Raptors were the Celtics (who I did *not* include in this comparison, because like the Raptors they were lucky) and Utah, who is clearly going to fall off.

I just don't weigh that chart super highly because it includes a bunch of roleplayers who missed time, which matters much less than a team's top 3-4 players missing time. I don't see the numbers behind the VORP bubbles, maybe you can list them? Because just eyeballing it the VORP that the Raps lost due to injury looks pretty equal with CLE, is slightly more than PHI and MIL, is slightly less than CHI, and is much less than MIA (which I have already conceded had much worse injury luck than most other teams).

So what I read from that chart is that the Raptors lost about the same value from injuries as those other teams (except Miami) but had a fewer 'total games lost to injury' because that chart is counting all the scrub roleplayers that missed time on those teams who weren't significant contributors to overall win rate.

You're unlucky if your top players miss significantly more time than other teams' top players. The Raptors top players missed roughly the equivalent of or more time than the teams you listed, with the exception of Miami. That part isn't disputable, so your whole argument is that the Raptors were lucky to be a playoff team because they didn't have significant injuries to guys like... Yuta Watanabe and Chris Boucher? Okay, man.

Nobody is saying Sexton is “good” but he’s a hell of a lot better than a Brandon Goodwin and Rajon Rondo. Not to mention without Garland there were no other shot creators.

Acting like Sexton wouldn’t have improved the Cavs down the stretch when Garland was out is just a bad take

He definitely would have helped them when Garland went down. I just don’t know that his contribution would have offset the wins he would have cost them if he had been healthy early in the season.

[Roger Murdock]

Sextons a good player. Yes he has limitations and weaknesses but he also has some very clear strengths and benefits.

He’s not a net negative on the court at all. He’s clearly an above average rotation player.

[Beethoven]

Who would say that Phoenix will be a sub 50 game win team?? You'd be very dumb to think that.
I understand teams where if one main player goes down, the team will suffer many losses. But not teams like clippers, pho, Denver, etc..these teams pretty much have ability to maintain their win loss trajectory with changes to their roster.

That said , it is almost an impossibility for them to be under 50. I would bank my roll on the over for their season wins at Vegas if I were you. This looks to be guaranteed.

[SpreeS]

That was an idiotic post. Roger Murdock is too good of a name for that quality of post.

Appreciate the vote of confidence in my postings, but its objectively true most teams, especially competing for playoffs in the East, had considerably worse injury luck than the Raps last season.

Here is a good graph.

Read on Twitter

This is very bad graph and confusing everyone

8 man rotation

PHO (Paul, Booker, Bridges, Crowder, Ayton, Payne, Shamet, Cam) missed 125 games

GSW (Curry, Klay, Wiggs, Green, Looney, Poole, Payton, Porter) missed 149 games

DEN (Murray, Barton, Porter, Gordon, Jokic, Green, Rivers, Morris) missed 210 games

TOP3 man rotation

PHO (Paul, Booker, Ayton) missed 55 games

GSW (Curry, Klay, Green) missed 104 games

DEN (Jokic, Porter, Murray) missed 163 games