Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ)

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Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#1 » by Dirk » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:34 pm

A new topic, as we enter a settimana cruciale --- that is "crucial week" in Italy. Full lockdown March 11. They need to see visible results of their sacrifices over the following days. The curve needs to come down. Spain is in a worse trajectory than Italy was at the same point.

The US will see a pike in cases as tests ramp up and are more available. Restrictive measures to be applied all across the country. Suggested read, it is the job of each one of us to understand what we're dealing with and then passing on the info to others who just do not have the same access to info as we do.

We're seeing more and more countries, from all continents, wake up to the reality of having to contain the spread.

We need to commend everyone for contributing to a good discussion.

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In Short
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Anyone and anything deemed as not contributing to productive discussion will be weeded out.

--- Users will be suspended
If you repeteadly derail the topic and fail to respect the basics (like reading this post), we're still friends, but your account will be given a time off

--- Posts will be moved out
If your post disappeared, it means it was moved out to a restricted area so as to not bring the level of discussion down in the topic.

— REALGM has a section for Politics — Current Affairs board. Click the link and head there for political discussions.

This topic is not the place for off-topic or political discussion. Keep all posts and comments that aren't relevant the virus/COVID-19 outside the GB. Use the CA section for everything else.
Spoiler:
Use the CA board if you politically motivated. Want to dump tweets and engage in never ending back and forths about the media, the dems, the republicans, the left and the right, etc.

For instance, while very real, the economic impact and the measures that need to be taken to keep the economy and families afloat isn't really the scope of this topic. So, this topic isn't really for micro-discussions and "live tweeting" about the congress.

If you are a fresh new user and/or have no trajectory on the General Board prior to this topic, make sure you're adding value to this topic. This topic is really not a topic for political discussions. And there is little patience for those who incite said discussions and bring the forum down.

Only discussions allowed here are the ones that organically belong to the current state of emergency.



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Posting useful info and updates is greatly appreciated

If you post based on data, please link to the source. Don't post unverified data. Use Reliable Sources.

Share your experience with others, how things are in your town/state/country.

Promote a good environment by respecting others. Actively ignore the posts that irk you and engage/value the many good posts that other users make.

Report posts/PM mods if you have any problem with any post, the tone of the topic or want to provide feedback.
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- previous topic | Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread IV (Must read Post 1)
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Re: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ)1 

Post#2 » by Dirk » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:35 pm

A quick and accessible FAQ. More to be added.
This virus is still too "young" for some of our most common questions to be answered with guarantees (i.e, if you can get re-infected after recovering). Please add any questions or corrections in the topic and we will be updating it as we go.

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FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
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What Is COVID-19?
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COVID-19 is the name given to the disease associated with the virus.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the name given to the 2019 novel coronavirus.

SARS-CoV-2 is a new strain of coronavirus that has not been previously identified in humans.
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What are the symptoms of COVID-19?
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The virus can cause mild, flu-like symptoms such as:
- fever
- cough
- difficulty breathing
- muscle pain
- tiredness
Some patients — particularly the elderly and others with other chronic health conditions — develop a severe form of pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, sepsis and septic shock that can lead to death.

The incubation period for COVID-19 (i.e. the time between exposure to the virus and onset of symptoms) is currently estimated at between two and 14 days.

At this stage, we know that the virus can be transmitted when people who are infected show flu-like symptoms such as coughing. There is evidence suggesting that transmission can occur from an infected person with no symptoms; however, uncertainties remain about the effect of transmission by non symptomatic persons on the epidemic.

How does the infection progress when the new coronavirus gets a foothold in your body?

It usually starts with a cough. Then a low fever. Then the low fever turns into a high fever and you get shortness of breath.

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How is this new virus different from the earlier known coronaviruses that spread SARS or MERS?
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SARS-CoV2 is different in 4 critical ways:

First, many infected people have no symptoms for days, so they can unknowingly infect others, and we don’t know who to isolate. This is very worrisome because SARS-CoV2 is highly infectious.

Second, 80% of the time, COVID-19 is a mild disease that feels like a minor cold or cough, so we don’t isolate ourselves, and infect others.

Third, the symptoms are easily confused with the flu, so many people think they have the flu and don’t consider other possibilities.

Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, the virus is very easy to spread from human to human because in the early stages it is concentrated in the upper throat. The throat is full of viral particles so when we cough or sneeze, billions of these particles can be expelled and transmitted to another person.


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COVID-19 compared to the seasonal flu. What’s the right way to frame this comparison? For example, are the seasonal flu and coronavirus equally dangerous?
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The seasonal flu typically infects up to 30 million people a year in the U.S., and fewer than 1/10th of 1% of the infected group will die – but that is still a big number. Worldwide, in an average year, a total of 300,000 people die from seasonal flu. But, on an average basis, the new coronavirus is 10-20 times more deadly, and in contrast to influenza, we cannot protect ourselves through vaccination.

Despite the relatively low mortality rate for seasonal influenza, many people die from the disease due to the large number of people who contract it each year. The concern about COVID-19 is that, unlike influenza, there is no vaccine and no specific treatment for the disease. It also appears to be as transmissible as influenza if not more so. As it is a new virus, nobody has prior immunity which in theory means that the entire human population is potentially susceptible to COVID-19 infection.

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Someone can be infected with the new virus and never show symptoms at all?
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Unfortunately, yes.

Many infected people do not show any symptoms for the first few days and then a mild cough or low fever shows up. This is the opposite of SARS, where you had clear symptoms for a few days but were only contagious when sick.

If you have no symptoms, can you still infect other people?

Yes. And that makes it much more difficult to slow the spread.

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How deadly is the new virus?
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Most scientists believe that it kills 1% to 2% of all the people who become infected. The WHO currently reports a higher figure of more than 3%, but that estimate is likely to come down as they figure out how to count many unreported or mild cases. Mortality is clearly higher in older people and those with underlying conditions.

Is the average death rate the figure to focus on?

Not really. You can drown in an “average” of 3 inches of water. A better way to understand the risks are recognizing that it can be deadly for certain groups of people and much less so for other groups – with a wide range of outcomes.

So what are the numbers and checkpoints to focus on?

80% of the time it’s a mild disease, but in 20% of cases it becomes more severe, with the worst cases reporting high fever or shortness of breath. As a result some people require hospitalization, and some will need intensive care to survive through a few critical days when their lungs are extensively infected.


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Which groups of people are most at danger here?
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The older you are, the higher your risk. Also at greater risk are people with underlying diseases such as diabetes, chronic obstructive lung disease and pulmonary disease or cardiovascular disease or immune deficiencies.

How much danger do these high-risk groups face?

Their mortality rate can be as high as 10% or even 15%. And, your risk increases when you have more health conditions. The scientific data about all of this is regularly updated on the web.

How can I avoid getting infected?
The virus enters your body via your eyes, nose and/or mouth, so it is important to avoid touching your face with unwashed hands.

Washing of hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, or cleaning hands with alcohol-based solutions, gels or tissues is recommended in all settings.

It is also recommended to stay 1 metre or more away from people infected with COVID-19 who are showing symptoms, to reduce the risk of infection through respiratory droplets.

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Replies sourced from the links below.

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Links of interest
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Re: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ)1 

Post#3 » by Dirk » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:39 pm

Courtside wrote:
ken6199 wrote:American Airlines Flight Attendants Risk Discipline For Wearing Protective Face Masks

https://viewfromthewing.com/american-airlines-flight-attendants-risk-discipline-for-wearing-protective-face-masks/

Masks in-flight or in the terminal is not allowed. We are following CDC guidance: masks are not effective in preventing the spread of COVID-19 for the general public.

The airline policy is to not scare the customers. That's it.



It's fascinating how masks became such a hot topic. All because there is a shortage. I believe that if the world had an abundance of masks, the recommendations would be different.

As it is, across the globe, health organizations (including CDC) tell us that "you do not have to wear a mask if you're not sick".

Okay, we may be spreading and not have symptoms...

So maybe they should extend it at least to say "if you're sick or if you've been in contacted with a suspected case".

Not having a clear/truthful message may have perverse outcomes.

flavio_93 wrote:Legit question here. Unless someone is showing symptoms or is in critical condition, what is the point of testing everyone for the virus? We are all on lockdown and are all told to stay home. What’s the point of testing someone who has no symptoms and is feeling completely normal. Even if they test positive , unless they’re really sick they’re only told to stay home and quarantine which is what everyone should be doing regardless


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You can contain clusters -- identify and stop discrete outbreaks, and then do rigorous contact tracing.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#4 » by Optimus_Steel » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:48 pm

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Two Republican senators defended themselves on Friday against heavy criticism, including calls that they resign, for selling substantial amounts of stocks before the coronavirus-induced market meltdown and after closed-door briefings on the outbreak.

Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr sold up to $1.7 million worth of stock on Feb. 13 in 33 separate transactions after offering public assurances the government was ready to battle the virus. His financial filings were first reported by ProPublica.

Senator Kelly Loeffler also sold millions of dollars in shares in the weeks after lawmakers were first briefed on the virus, according to public filings.

Media reports about Burr and Loeffler, who have denied wrongdoing, prompted calls they leave office and other criticism from people as disparate as a progressive Democratic lawmaker and a conservative commentator.

Burr made public comments in line with Republican President Donald Trump's early assurances that the country could easily deal with the outbreak. Trump has since taken a markedly more serious tack.

But the senator told a private Washington luncheon two weeks after the stock sales that the coronavirus was much more aggressive "than anything that we have seen in recent history," according to a recording obtained by National Public Radio.

The comments predated Wall Street's series of avalanches.

In a statement Friday, Burr said he relied only on public news reports to guide his decision on the Feb. 13 stock sales.

"Understanding the assumption many could make in hindsight, however, I spoke this morning with the chairman of the Senate Ethics Committee and asked him to open a complete review of the matter with full transparency," Burr said.

Senate Ethics Committee Chairman James Lankford declined to comment.

Loeffler sold up to $3.1 million in stocks in 27 transactions from Jan. 24 through mid-February, as first reported by The Daily Beast. The report said the sales began the day her health committee hosted a private coronavirus briefing for senators. She also made two purchases.

Loeffler said she was informed of the transactions three weeks after they occurred and that she is not involved in investment decisions for her portfolio.

"This is a ridiculous and baseless attack," she wrote on Twitter.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-senators-defend-selling-shares-032856942.html

How have Senators Burr and Loeffler not resigned yet????
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#5 » by spacemonkey » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:48 pm

The frontline medical workers dealing with this thing all over the world are amazing.

Read on Twitter
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#6 » by Optimus_Steel » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:50 pm

spacemonkey wrote:The frontline medical workers dealing with this thing all over the world are amazing.

Read on Twitter



These people are our real heroes. They need our support.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#7 » by zonedefense » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:56 pm

NBA players are like turtles...they can only get up with the help of teammates.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#8 » by mtron929 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:58 pm

One of the reasons why masks are so plentiful in Eastern Asian countries ironically has to do with China. Because China is such a big source of pollutants, the air is pretty bad in countries that border China and has been ramping up severely in the last five years. As such, there was an enormous amount of demand for masks that would prevent these nasty fine dusts from entering into people's mouths/noses. And the worst thing is that the Chinese government always lied about how much damage they were doing to the environment.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#9 » by Optimus_Steel » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:01 pm

Days after announcing his coronavirus diagnosis, Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Utah) revealed Sunday that he was hospitalized after experiencing “severe shortness of breath.”

McAdams said in a statement that his condition had since improved and he was “feeling relatively better.” He said he remains in the hospital, however, and would stay there until his doctors “determine it is appropriate.”

“My experience has shown me how critical it is to follow the advice of the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] and the Utah Department of Health in order to stop the spread of this virus,” the freshman lawmaker said.


https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/ben-mcadams-coronavirus-covid-19-hospitalized-104720360.html

Representative McAdams has been hospitalized due to breathing issues.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#10 » by jason bourne » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:01 pm

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“The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself.”
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#11 » by Domejandro » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:03 pm

For a reputable source on COVID-19 statistics, I urge everyone to go to the website I will link below.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Keep in mind that we have poor data because of limited testing, but as of this post....

351,731 Confirmed Cases
100,430 Full Recoveries
15,374 confirmed deaths

Current fatality rate is at 4.37%
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Re: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ)1 

Post#12 » by nikster » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:11 pm

Dirk wrote:
Courtside wrote:
ken6199 wrote:American Airlines Flight Attendants Risk Discipline For Wearing Protective Face Masks

https://viewfromthewing.com/american-airlines-flight-attendants-risk-discipline-for-wearing-protective-face-masks/


The airline policy is to not scare the customers. That's it.



It's fascinating how masks became such a hot topic. All because there is a shortage. I believe that if the world had an abundance of masks, the recommendations would be different.

As it is, across the globe, health organizations (including CDC) tell us that "you do not have to wear a mask if you're not sick".

Okay, we may be spreading and not have symptoms...

So maybe they should extend it at least to say "if you're sick or if you've been in contacted with a suspected case".


flavio_93 wrote:Legit question here. Unless someone is showing symptoms or is in critical condition, what is the point of testing everyone for the virus? We are all on lockdown and are all told to stay home. What’s the point of testing someone who has no symptoms and is feeling completely normal. Even if they test positive , unless they’re really sick they’re only told to stay home and quarantine which is what everyone should be doing regardless


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


You can contain clusters -- identify and stop discrete outbreaks, and then do rigorous contact tracing.

Yeah i think the reccomendations are definitely based on the shortage. Think the priority is gonna be anybody working in essential services during the lockdown, like cashiers, because theyre gonna be huge vectors for the virus
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#13 » by Pharmcat » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:16 pm

Domejandro wrote:For a reputable source on COVID-19 statistics, I urge everyone to go to the website I will link below.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Keep in mind that we have poor data because of limited testing, but as of this post....

351,731 Confirmed Cases
100,430 Full Recoveries
15,374 confirmed deaths

Current fatality rate is at 4.37%


That's a horrible high rate
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Re: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ)1 

Post#14 » by Courtside » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:17 pm

Dirk wrote:
Courtside wrote:
ken6199 wrote:American Airlines Flight Attendants Risk Discipline For Wearing Protective Face Masks

https://viewfromthewing.com/american-airlines-flight-attendants-risk-discipline-for-wearing-protective-face-masks/


The airline policy is to not scare the customers. That's it.



It's fascinating how masks became such a hot topic. All because there is a shortage. I believe that if the world had an abundance of masks, the recommendations would be different.

As it is, across the globe, health organizations (including CDC) tell us that "you do not have to wear a mask if you're not sick".

Okay, we may be spreading and not have symptoms...

So maybe they should extend it at least to say "if you're sick or if you've been in contacted with a suspected case".

The mixed messaging is terrible, for a number of reasons.

1) The public doesn't need them and shouldn't buy them because the medical providers are more important (which they are, of course). This is the only truthful statement they can make.

2) The public doesn't need them because they don't work.
- If they didn't work then HCP shouldn't need them
- Of course doctors can't socially distance, but they're used throughout health care systems to reduce spread of germs and viruses, so they DO something

3) Only sick people should wear them.
- Um, COVID spreads from asymptomatic people too.
- Stigmatizes wearing of masks because people don't want to look like the sick ones

4) If you have any, you should donate them.
This is fair, but goes back to #2. If they weren't of use then why are HCP losing their minds over the shortage. Why is the CDC releasing updated guidelines about recycling or using hand made substitutes?

Everything goes back to #1. There simply isn't a suitable supply and that is the only message that should be given. If the supply later increases, they are going to have to backtrack on all the other things they said and that erodes trust in the leaders and agencies that are supposed to be listened to in order to get past this pandemic.

Airline workers absolutely should be wearing masks considering that they cannot socially distance either, and would essentially be super spreaders if they were carriers. Their likelihood of becoming carriers is many times more likely than most other people, behind health care providers.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#15 » by DowJones » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:17 pm

Optimus_Steel wrote:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Two Republican senators defended themselves on Friday against heavy criticism, including calls that they resign, for selling substantial amounts of stocks before the coronavirus-induced market meltdown and after closed-door briefings on the outbreak.

Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr sold up to $1.7 million worth of stock on Feb. 13 in 33 separate transactions after offering public assurances the government was ready to battle the virus. His financial filings were first reported by ProPublica.

Senator Kelly Loeffler also sold millions of dollars in shares in the weeks after lawmakers were first briefed on the virus, according to public filings.

Media reports about Burr and Loeffler, who have denied wrongdoing, prompted calls they leave office and other criticism from people as disparate as a progressive Democratic lawmaker and a conservative commentator.

Burr made public comments in line with Republican President Donald Trump's early assurances that the country could easily deal with the outbreak. Trump has since taken a markedly more serious tack.

But the senator told a private Washington luncheon two weeks after the stock sales that the coronavirus was much more aggressive "than anything that we have seen in recent history," according to a recording obtained by National Public Radio.

The comments predated Wall Street's series of avalanches.

In a statement Friday, Burr said he relied only on public news reports to guide his decision on the Feb. 13 stock sales.

"Understanding the assumption many could make in hindsight, however, I spoke this morning with the chairman of the Senate Ethics Committee and asked him to open a complete review of the matter with full transparency," Burr said.

Senate Ethics Committee Chairman James Lankford declined to comment.

Loeffler sold up to $3.1 million in stocks in 27 transactions from Jan. 24 through mid-February, as first reported by The Daily Beast. The report said the sales began the day her health committee hosted a private coronavirus briefing for senators. She also made two purchases.

Loeffler said she was informed of the transactions three weeks after they occurred and that she is not involved in investment decisions for her portfolio.

"This is a ridiculous and baseless attack," she wrote on Twitter.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-senators-defend-selling-shares-032856942.html

How have Senators Burr and Loeffler not resigned yet????


None of the ones that have sold stocks have resigned. Burr is safe but I think Loeffler has a primary coming up that she might lose because of this. The voters will ultimately decide.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#16 » by chrismikayla » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:21 pm

I think the virus could be mitigated somewhat without mass closures if people would wear masks if they were available and practice social distancing. Sadly many people don't have the common sense or lack of selfishness to do that.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#17 » by subbed sub » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:27 pm

I live in Spain, which has the fastest rising number of cases in Europe. We're slightly behind Italy on the time-line but the media here is projecting that things may get even worse than in Italy.
We're in complete lockdown. People can only leave the house to buy basics. No more than 1 person per car, with mask and gloves on at all times. 2 metres from the nearest person. Nobody out at all after 2pm. Fines range from €300 to €60,000).
Been locked up for nine days now with wife and 2 kids (aged 19 months and 2.5 years), and a Jack Russell. Luckily we have a little space, but how can people that live in appartments do this - especially if they have kids? They're saying here another 15 days but i personally think it will be a lot longer than that.
Imagine those families that live in like 3 rooms with a child or two. Impossible.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#18 » by spacemonkey » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:34 pm

Interesting paper here out of China: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832

The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%.

Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.


So, a few thoughts based on the conclusions of the paper:
A) this thing might be less infectious than we thought
B) but that means it might be more deadly than we're estimating (unless asymptomatics are not being counted in case totals)
C) false-positive 'asymptomatics' are still at risk to contract Covid-19, meaning they can't be counted out of healthcare projections (ie they can get it and still need an ICU bed down the line)*
D) our testing might not be very accurate

Edit: * Regarding point C, this could also mean that people who were false-positive tested might think they've had it, 'beaten' it, and now attained some measure of immunity, and then no longer practice precautions because they think they can no longer contract and/or spread it, until of course they inevitably do and then give grandma a kiss on the cheek.
mtron929
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#19 » by mtron929 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:35 pm

chrismikayla wrote:I think the virus could be mitigated somewhat without mass closures if people would wear masks if they were available and practice social distancing. Sadly many people don't have the common sense or lack of selfishness to do that.


The difficult thing is that even if 95% of the people have the common sense to abide by the order, the minority 5% can and will **** it up for everyone else. That is what is so difficult about this situation. Pretty much everyone has to buy in because you are only as strong as your weakest link.
flavio_93
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#20 » by flavio_93 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:42 pm

Pharmcat wrote:
Domejandro wrote:For a reputable source on COVID-19 statistics, I urge everyone to go to the website I will link below.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Keep in mind that we have poor data because of limited testing, but as of this post....

351,731 Confirmed Cases
100,430 Full Recoveries
15,374 confirmed deaths

Current fatality rate is at 4.37%


That's a horrible high rate

That fatality rate is definitely not accurate lol

There is hundreds of thousands who are infected but haven’t been tested and are still alive with mild to no symptoms .


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