RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Kyle Lowry)

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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#41 » by eminence » Sun Feb 25, 2024 1:13 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
eminence wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Well, I think what we saw is that moving from Cousy to KC was a drop in offense, but a bigger gain in defense. So yes, you can argue that given their roster, Cousy as he was was still adding offensive value, it just wasn't enough offensive value to justify the defense.

If I were impressed enough with KC's overall game to consider him a serious threat for this list I'd see things a bit differently, but as is, I see KC as someone who really shouldn't have been able to be more valuable than a top tier offensive point guard, and the fact that he was probably more valuable than Cousy while Cousy still played speaks to how much Cousy's offensive impact isn't what we'd expect it to be based on the raw box score.


The overall team change with the removal of any non-Russell player is very much in the meh range for me, the Boston dynasty was pretty consistent season to season, a few games up or down on a team winning the title every season doesn't really register.

One generation successfully replaces the next, but I find it hard to pick out individual players from each one.

What's your reasoning for KC>Cousy prior to retirement? Given the PO minutes each received I think it's a very tough sell. I like you Doc, but I tend to think Red/Bill probably had a better grasp on the situation ;)

Even if one thought '64 KC > '63 Cousy was a trivial matter to prove (I disagree), arguing '04 Rip > '03 MJ doesn't actually say much about their career values.


If I recall correctly, Bill in "Second Wind" talked about everyone on the team knowing that KC & Sam would come off the bench until Cousy & Sharman retired regardless of how good KC & Sam were, and everyone just accepting this. So no, I don't see this as a case where the contemporary people were looking at this based on an unbiased view of how valuable each guy could be. Cousy & Sharman were there first, it was their job before they became a dynasty and continued winning wasn't going to make them lose their job unless something drastic happened. Certainly there was the locker room to consider - demoting long-time starters has consequences and risks - and beyond that there was a racial dynamic to consider.

At the time when KC & Sam were on the bench and even afterward, there was a belief amongst the Black basketball community that teams at both the NCAA and NBA levels didn't want to have too many Black players starting, or even on the team, out of fear of losing fans. I would not allege that Red would knowingly sabotage his team in the name of not pissing off racists, but there's no doubt that some things were easier for him if he didn't bench Cousy or Sharman.

None of this means that KC>Cousy, but we do see the team get better after Cousy's retirement when many expected the team to get worse, and if you simply take the names out of it I think it makes it seem not so strange:

Inefficient chucker who is not good on defense leaves.
Low primacy defensive specialist enters.
Defense improves more than the offenses falls off.
Likely that the low primacy defensive specialist was a better fit for his role than the inefficient chucker was in his.

Re: Doesn't say much about career values. Sure, but Cousy was a much more capable scorer than KC even then so this isn't a situation where the relative strengths are utterly out of whack compared to career. If KC was more capable of value for the Celtics in Cousy's last season in part due to the fact that he was still shooting the volume of a great scoring threat even though he wasn't any more, then the same may well be true for any other season in which Cousy was inefficient relative to league norms. And Cousy dropped to that point at an age younger than Jones was in '62-63 (Cousy's last season).

Add to this that I don't think there's really any reason to see KC as a "late bloomer" as a basketball player. Russell was pretty clear about KC having a more sophisticated understanding of the game than himself when they first began their collaboration at USF, and the chemistry they had in those championship NCAA runs was legendary.

All this to say that while Cousy had offensive strengths KC never had, KC was probably always a better 2-man fit with Russell in terms of knowing what to do to support each other, to say nothing about their defensive coordination, and so Cousy needed those offensive strengths to paying off to maintain more capacity for value than KC.

I'm skeptical Cousy was able to do that with high volume and low efficiency.


For Sharman vs Sam I see the team politics/racial pressure angle, Sharman kept the starting spot, but Sam was basically dead even with him in total role that last season.

KC never did that with Cousy. To the very end Red rode Cousy over KC ('63 Finals 31.5 vs 18.7 mpg) in a way he didn't with Sharman with Jones.

I don't see any way around the take being either - Red knowingly made the team notably worse, or Red thought Cousy was better for the team than KC.

I'm of the opinion there's not much discernible difference between total level for '63 Cousy and '64 KC. A 1 win improvement is the most 'well they technically improved' you can get. Cousy gone and KC increasing role was certainly a fair sized change, but not the only one - namely the addition of Naulls to the bench, and various players aging up and down (mostly Satch/Hondo getting a bit more experienced imo). Unless you think those other changes were distinctly negative I find it hard to argue '64 KC was meaningfully better than '63 Cousy (I'd describe them as slightly positive overall outside of the Cousy/KC swap).

A player being in that range in his 12-13th seasons (noting they were his 12th/13th best seasons) would seem to be fairly neutral at this point on the list.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#42 » by eminence » Sun Feb 25, 2024 1:23 am

This is all of course a bit more confusing to me in light of advocating for consideration of Baron Davis.

Unless there's a push for B-Diddy as a GOAT level defensive guard that I'm unaware of... it's pretty clearly acknowledged that high volume lower efficiency guards can still have distinctly positive impact.

Cousy was better when efficient, absolutely, but I don't see much evidence he ever dropped below decent starter level.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#43 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Feb 25, 2024 1:48 am

eminence wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
eminence wrote:
The overall team change with the removal of any non-Russell player is very much in the meh range for me, the Boston dynasty was pretty consistent season to season, a few games up or down on a team winning the title every season doesn't really register.

One generation successfully replaces the next, but I find it hard to pick out individual players from each one.

What's your reasoning for KC>Cousy prior to retirement? Given the PO minutes each received I think it's a very tough sell. I like you Doc, but I tend to think Red/Bill probably had a better grasp on the situation ;)

Even if one thought '64 KC > '63 Cousy was a trivial matter to prove (I disagree), arguing '04 Rip > '03 MJ doesn't actually say much about their career values.


If I recall correctly, Bill in "Second Wind" talked about everyone on the team knowing that KC & Sam would come off the bench until Cousy & Sharman retired regardless of how good KC & Sam were, and everyone just accepting this. So no, I don't see this as a case where the contemporary people were looking at this based on an unbiased view of how valuable each guy could be. Cousy & Sharman were there first, it was their job before they became a dynasty and continued winning wasn't going to make them lose their job unless something drastic happened. Certainly there was the locker room to consider - demoting long-time starters has consequences and risks - and beyond that there was a racial dynamic to consider.

At the time when KC & Sam were on the bench and even afterward, there was a belief amongst the Black basketball community that teams at both the NCAA and NBA levels didn't want to have too many Black players starting, or even on the team, out of fear of losing fans. I would not allege that Red would knowingly sabotage his team in the name of not pissing off racists, but there's no doubt that some things were easier for him if he didn't bench Cousy or Sharman.

None of this means that KC>Cousy, but we do see the team get better after Cousy's retirement when many expected the team to get worse, and if you simply take the names out of it I think it makes it seem not so strange:

Inefficient chucker who is not good on defense leaves.
Low primacy defensive specialist enters.
Defense improves more than the offenses falls off.
Likely that the low primacy defensive specialist was a better fit for his role than the inefficient chucker was in his.

Re: Doesn't say much about career values. Sure, but Cousy was a much more capable scorer than KC even then so this isn't a situation where the relative strengths are utterly out of whack compared to career. If KC was more capable of value for the Celtics in Cousy's last season in part due to the fact that he was still shooting the volume of a great scoring threat even though he wasn't any more, then the same may well be true for any other season in which Cousy was inefficient relative to league norms. And Cousy dropped to that point at an age younger than Jones was in '62-63 (Cousy's last season).

Add to this that I don't think there's really any reason to see KC as a "late bloomer" as a basketball player. Russell was pretty clear about KC having a more sophisticated understanding of the game than himself when they first began their collaboration at USF, and the chemistry they had in those championship NCAA runs was legendary.

All this to say that while Cousy had offensive strengths KC never had, KC was probably always a better 2-man fit with Russell in terms of knowing what to do to support each other, to say nothing about their defensive coordination, and so Cousy needed those offensive strengths to paying off to maintain more capacity for value than KC.

I'm skeptical Cousy was able to do that with high volume and low efficiency.


For Sharman vs Sam I see the team politics/racial pressure angle, Sharman kept the starting spot, but Sam was basically dead even with him in total role that last season.

KC never did that with Cousy. To the very end Red rode Cousy over KC ('63 Finals 31.5 vs 18.7 mpg) in a way he didn't with Sharman with Jones.

I don't see any way around the take being either - Red knowingly made the team notably worse, or Red thought Cousy was better for the team than KC.

I'm of the opinion there's not much discernible difference between total level for '63 Cousy and '64 KC. A 1 win improvement is the most 'well they technically improved' you can get. Cousy gone and KC increasing role was certainly a fair sized change, but not the only one - namely the addition of Naulls to the bench, and various players aging up and down (mostly Satch/Hondo getting a bit more experienced imo). Unless you think those other changes were distinctly negative I find it hard to argue '64 KC was meaningfully better than '63 Cousy (I'd describe them as slightly positive overall outside of the Cousy/KC swap).

A player being in that range in his 12-13th seasons (noting they were his 12th/13th best seasons) would seem to be fairly neutral at this point on the list.


I'm repeating what I read from Russell when I talk about Cousy/Sharman vs KC/Sam, but I don't disagree with your assessment that Red had more confidence in Sam than in KC, and understandably so because KC simply could not do what Cousy did. So then yes, I think Red was more likely to be wrong on KC and more likely to be cautious with Sam, but I think may well have been a bit of each in each case.

Re: one win improvement. They were also more dominant in the playoffs, and did so with the defense at their apex.

I can understand not feeling like it was a big improvement given how good they were already, but I'll put it this way:

I don't think anyone is arguing that the '62-63 Celtics was the best version of those Celtics.
Whereas '63-64 is very much in the conversation.

Re: 12-13th season really hurt that much? Right but the efficiency fall off we're talking about happened in his 8th season, and that's the real concern for me about Cousy in this context.

I'll continue in response to your subsequent post pertaining to Baron Davis.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#44 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Feb 25, 2024 2:02 am

eminence wrote:This is all of course a bit more confusing to me in light of advocating for consideration of Baron Davis.

Unless there's a push for B-Diddy as a GOAT level defensive guard that I'm unaware of... it's pretty clearly acknowledged that high volume lower efficiency guards can still have distinctly positive impact.

Cousy was better when efficient, absolutely, but I don't see much evidence he ever dropped below decent starter level.


It's not a question of whether inefficient players can be impactful, but what we think the most likely explanation of events was.

For Baron, before we got the +/- data I think we all thought it unlikely that he was so consistently impactful. The data then changed our sense of the most likely explanation - for some of us at least, clearly we should have the conversation because this isn't any kind of previously agreed upon thing.

For Cousy, I had no pre-conceived notion that that Cousy couldn't have had massive impact with low efficiency, only a concern that that drop in efficiency probably means some drop in impact, and a question of the scale. Had the team become much worse after his retirement that certainly would have helped fortify his standing in my book, but that's not what happened.

The other statistical point that looms large here is that the Celtics did not have a good offense with Cousy in those dynastic years. Now some of this was clearly about tactic - focusing on maximizing what could be done with Russell's defense - and so it didn't necessarily mean that Cousy wasn't quite impactful, but it once again leads us to questions.

If the star offensive player of your not-good team offense has low efficiency, and we don't see a drastic loss in team offense when he goes, from what evidence are we supposed to infer that he was having massive offensive impact in those years?

Hence, it's not impossible, but not the most likely explanation.

Let me end with this:

It's tricky to judge any of Red's offensive players because he seems to have encouraged them to shoot fast rather than shoot with care, and this was part of a strategy that led them to the greatest dynasty we've ever seen. Cousy was doing his part in all of this, so should we really be saying he was doing anything "wrong"?

Maybe not, but if the strategy Red chose to use to optimize around Russell led to his offensive stars having less impact, then we would still want to acknowledge this lack of impact, right?

I don't literally mean to imply that these years were negatives on Cousy's resume, but that's not the same thing as coming to the conclusion that Cousy had less impact than contemporary observers believed.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#45 » by eminence » Sun Feb 25, 2024 5:20 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
eminence wrote:This is all of course a bit more confusing to me in light of advocating for consideration of Baron Davis.

Unless there's a push for B-Diddy as a GOAT level defensive guard that I'm unaware of... it's pretty clearly acknowledged that high volume lower efficiency guards can still have distinctly positive impact.

Cousy was better when efficient, absolutely, but I don't see much evidence he ever dropped below decent starter level.


It's not a question of whether inefficient players can be impactful, but what we think the most likely explanation of events was.

For Baron, before we got the +/- data I think we all thought it unlikely that he was so consistently impactful. The data then changed our sense of the most likely explanation - for some of us at least, clearly we should have the conversation because this isn't any kind of previously agreed upon thing.

For Cousy, I had no pre-conceived notion that that Cousy couldn't have had massive impact with low efficiency, only a concern that that drop in efficiency probably means some drop in impact, and a question of the scale. Had the team become much worse after his retirement that certainly would have helped fortify his standing in my book, but that's not what happened.

The other statistical point that looms large here is that the Celtics did not have a good offense with Cousy in those dynastic years. Now some of this was clearly about tactic - focusing on maximizing what could be done with Russell's defense - and so it didn't necessarily mean that Cousy wasn't quite impactful, but it once again leads us to questions.

If the star offensive player of your not-good team offense has low efficiency, and we don't see a drastic loss in team offense when he goes, from what evidence are we supposed to infer that he was having massive offensive impact in those years?

Hence, it's not impossible, but not the most likely explanation.

Let me end with this:

It's tricky to judge any of Red's offensive players because he seems to have encouraged them to shoot fast rather than shoot with care, and this was part of a strategy that led them to the greatest dynasty we've ever seen. Cousy was doing his part in all of this, so should we really be saying he was doing anything "wrong"?

Maybe not, but if the strategy Red chose to use to optimize around Russell led to his offensive stars having less impact, then we would still want to acknowledge this lack of impact, right?

I don't literally mean to imply that these years were negatives on Cousy's resume, but that's not the same thing as coming to the conclusion that Cousy had less impact than contemporary observers believed.


I can't speak for everyone, but I don't imagine many posters here are evaluating late career Cousy at the level that contemporary observers did.

If the Celtics had significantly fallen off after '63 (ie lost ~10 more games, not won a couple more titles), and Cousy in his 13th season was shown having clear star+ impact in big minutes on a dynasty to match his contemporary reputation he'd be in the discussion for being a top 30 player of all-time, not hunting for nomination here in the 70s.

Does Cousy in the dynasty years deeply impress me, nope ('57/'59 in particular seem solid and worthy of some level of 'star' label). Was he wildly over awarded, yep. But you're talking about his worst seasons and still generally agreeing he was some level of positive as if that's a bad thing?

The standard seems wildly higher than any other player being discussed. I don't think any time has been spent discussing Miami Lowry, Clippers Davis, or Detroit Iverson, so why are we dragging Cousy for a similar phase in his career arc?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#46 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Feb 25, 2024 7:32 am

eminence wrote:I can't speak for everyone, but I don't imagine many posters here are evaluating late career Cousy at the level that contemporary observers did.

If the Celtics had significantly fallen off after '63 (ie lost ~10 more games, not won a couple more titles), and Cousy in his 13th season was shown having clear star+ impact in big minutes on a dynasty to match his contemporary reputation he'd be in the discussion for being a top 30 player of all-time, not hunting for nomination here in the 70s.

Does Cousy in the dynasty years deeply impress me, nope ('57/'59 in particular seem solid and worthy of some level of 'star' label). Was he wildly over awarded, yep. But you're talking about his worst seasons and still generally agreeing he was some level of positive as if that's a bad thing?

The standard seems wildly higher than any other player being discussed. I don't think any time has been spent discussing Miami Lowry, Clippers Davis, or Detroit Iverson, so why are we dragging Cousy for a similar phase in his career arc?


Well I was trying to emphasize that I'm not saying it's a bad thing even though I'm bringing it up as a con for Cousy in the context of this project. Something can still be a positive relative to league average norms without it being a positive relative to elite norms.

Re: Miami Lowry, Clipper Davis, Detroit Iverson. Well, let's talk about them.

For Lowry I'm on record being really unimpressed by his non- Toronto career. For a man now on his 5th NBA team to only really make a mark on one of those teams, and not because that was his 1st team and he got hurt, but because he blew it on his first two teams.

But I also think his time in Toronto was generally quite outstanding. I have some qualms about playoff underperformance up to a point, but I see him as the GOAT Raptor by a pretty sizable margin.

This then to say it's pretty easy for me to see other guys getting a longevity argument over Lowry based how many great years guys actually had, and Cousy could be one of those guys.

But Cousy is also a guy who basically just spent 6 years being someone chucking responsibly, and the thing about Lowry is that in general this has never been a problem for him. He's generally seemed to have a pretty good sense of his own scoring abilities relative to his teammates all throughout his career, and this along with his quite solid defensive reputation to an advanced age can make an argument that Lowry was simply a more capable player than Cousy, both in prime and post.

For Davis, the Clipper situation was godawful and I don't blame him for it, but it certainly doesn't add to his list of accomplishments. In the end, Davis' effective prime probably lasted about as long as Lowry's, which would put him below Cousy if you're a believer in Cousy's dynasty years.

For Iverson, well, frankly I'm just not going to vote for Iverson over Cousy. I don't know about the other two guys, but in Iverson you've got a guy with the same types of problems as Cousy but without the same track record of team success. Cousy led the best offense in his league at a certain point, and I just really don't see Iverson as capable of that. I do understand criteria that would favor Iverson on the grounds of him playing in a stronger era, but focusing just on competitive success rather than cultural impact, I don't think Iverson left the same mark as Cousy.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#47 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Sun Feb 25, 2024 8:47 am

Induction Vote #1: Adrian Dantley

Induction Vote #2: Dennis Rodman

Dantley is the most statistically eye-popping player on the ballot, and he wasn't just a bit player on the 87 and 88 Pistons - his efficiency and box composites are all strong.

I'll point out here - because Dantley and Lowry have the most support atm - I came close to voting for Lowry, but Dantley's career box composites are higher, in both RS and PO:

Dantley - .189 WS/48, 3.1 BPM RS, .172 WS/48, 2.9 BPM PO
Lowry - .149 WS/48, 2.8 BPM RS, .102 WS/48, 1.9 BPM PO

I will also point out that Lowry's case is built mostly on his nine years in Toronto, where Dantley put up exceptional (box) statistical production for at least twelve years.

And while Lowry was the #2 on a title team, Dantley was one controversial foul call away from being able to say he posted the highest playoff WS/48 and second highest playoff BPM on a champion, and being #1 on the team in both categories in the regular season.

The notion that the Pistons had to trade Dantley to win is, frankly, nonsense. The came as close as you can possibly get to winning a championship without actually winning it in 1988 and the reasons they lost had nothing to do with Dantley. He was traded, imo, not for basketball reasons but because certain people of influence on the team - read: Isiah - simply didn't like him much. Dantley hated Isiah for getting him traded.
---

As for Dennis, I'll just quote what I wrote when I nominated him:

...In the end, Rodman just won more. Less primacy of course, and he was surely lucky to play on great teams with star players and HOF coaches, but there have been other players who played on multiple great teams who didn't have such an impact, and playing winning basketball in multiple context matters. What we can say is this:

1. He is considered by many to be the pound-for-pound GOAT rebounder, having led the league in RPG for seven straight years(and TRB% for eight straight years).
2. He is considered by many to be one of the greatest defensive forwards ever, having won two DPOYS and being in the top ten DPOY voting ten times, as well as making the All-Defensive First Team seven times.
3. Between 1987 and 1998, he went to nine conference finals, six finals, and won five championships, starting for four of those championship teams.
4. He finished in the top 15 of MVP voting four times, and the top 10 once.
5. Narrative-wise, he was a key player on two ATG teams, and that's gonna carry some weight.
6. Given that most of his career took place pre-PBP, we don't have a lot of impact data, but we do have the following:

A. Via Squared, based on a sample of 45 games, Rodman had the third highest RAPM in the whole league, at 4.89, in 1990-91.
B. Via Squared, based on a sample of 10 games, Rodman has a 2.33 RAPM in 1992-93, his final year in Detroit.
C. Via Pollack, Rodman had a +8.7 on/off - 19th in the league - in 1993-94, his first year with the Spurs.
D. Via Pollack, Rodman had a +7.4 on/off, -29th in the league - in 1994-95, his second year with the Spurs.
E. Via Squared, based on a sample of 73 games, Rodman has a 1.38 RAPM in 1995-96
F. In JE's RS+PO RAPM set, Rodman was at 3.23 in 96-97 and 1.70 in 97-98.
G. Via BBRef, Rodman had +7.3 on/off in 96-97 and a -2.8 on/off in 97-98; for playoffs, it's -10.6 in 96-97 and +5.5 in 97-98.

So it's not super high, but it's consistently(with a couple of exceptions) good.

I would take special note that his two Spurs years sometimes tend to get lost between all of his accomplishments in Detroit and Chicago, but they shouldn't. He led the league in rebounding both years, had good on/off as evidenced above, and had one of his best playoff runs(looking at the box) in 1995(.166 WS/48, 1.2 BPM, 55.7% TS). I've always felt he was unfairly scapegoated for the 1995 WCF loss because of his behavior, but that loss really had little to do with Rodman and much more to do with Hakeem outplaying Robinson.

Devil's advocate - the Spurs didn't lose a single step after they traded Rodman to the Bulls, in terms of SRS and Net Rtg.


Nomination Vote #1: Allen Iverson

Nomination Vote #2: Sidney Moncrief

Quoting my earlier post in this thread about Iverson:

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:My input into the Iverson debate:

Like I said before, it is difficult to make a statistical argument for Iverson.

For his career, has has a -0.9 rTS.

In all his years with the Sixers, the team had a positive relative ORtg only twice.

His RAPM is not all that impressive.

He has a career -7.6 on/off in the playoffs.

You can rebut this by saying those two positive relative ORtgs came during what is perceived as his peak, in 2001 and 2003; that he has some pretty decent WOWY W/L records; that he won an MVP and finished in the Top 10 of voting six other times(two of those in the top five).

But the reality is the 2001 Finals run is carrying a lot of weight for Iverson - without it, he'd be a much harder sell.

And what I will say about that is this: I am not sure people appreciate how offensively poor that Sixers team was. Of the main rotation guys, only two had a positive rTS on the season - Mutombo and Aaron McKie. This is how the rotation guys(besides Iverson) scored in the playoffs:

Mutombo: 13.9 on 58.4% TS
McKie: 14.6 on 50.3% TS
Tyrone Hill: 7.2 on 45.5% TS
Jumaine Jones: 5.5 on 47.3% TS
Eric Snow: 9.3 on 45.7% TS
George Lynch: 5.7 on 50.7% TS

And Lynch missed over half the playoffs hurt.

Eric Snow, who had averaged 7.4 assists in the regular season, averaged only 4.5 in the playoffs.

Allen Iverson averaged 32.9ppg on 48% TS while also leading the team with 6.1apg in the playoffs(with 2.9 turnovers per, so over a 2:1 ratio).

I get that the efficiency isn't good and that Iverson had a -5.2 on/off in those playoffs. I think this is one of those times where the on/off doesn't tell the whole story. This was an extremely limited offense and I don't for one second believe that team gets out of the first round without Iverson. If you can be the difference between a first-round elimination and getting to the Finals(and taking a game off an ATG team), that suggests to me the kind of value we look for on a list like this.

I understand all the arguments against him. As a general rule, high-volume low-efficiency scorers don't do well around here. But Dominique has never missed this board's Top 100, Melo has been discussed, and I think you can certainly argue that Iverson was better than either. In fact, particularly given that he was barely six feet tall - I know some of you don't like bonus points for being short but it's hard to ignore here - I think Iverson may just be the best high-volume low-efficiency scorer of all time. A dubious honor, to be sure.

He's really one of the most difficult players to evaluate, and I completely understand those who don't think he belongs here, but...I'm not there yet. I think he was a unicorn, insofar as there's never been another player quite like him.


Even with the longevity issue, Moncrief seems, in some ways, like the most impressive of any of the players that have nomination votes right now.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#48 » by OhayoKD » Sun Feb 25, 2024 11:23 am

Vote

1. Gobert

-> Arguable lead on multiple decent to good teams
-> Arguably the league's best rim protector and historically excellent in terms of mobility in comparison to other centers
-> Excellent screen-setting and decent finishing makes him a positive in most contexts
-> RS Impact darling(playoff translation is a question)
-> Wins any sort of era/translation tie-breaker against other "stay-at-home" bigs imo.

2. Kyle Lowry

WintaSoldier1 wrote:Wow Kyle Lowry got in over Allen Iverson…

I’ve been silently watching for a while but my silence breaks for now, can’t promise a return back to full posting but my disbelief in the system has been put on the highest of alerts.

It’s time Iverson gets nominated, as he should of 15 spots ago


Well, better late than never I hope...

Nomination

1. Allen Iverson
-> very strong wowy profile compared to the other major candidates here with 11-years of solid impact per whole-game without
-> weak rapm profile not really a concern with sam jones as competition

2. Walton

Feels he should at least be in the discussion given how good his 1/2 year peak was. Am open to nominating Davies and/or Tatum if they garner enough support.


Skepticism on Sam Jones and Bob Cousy
Spoiler:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:Good points about Sharman. He did have a better defensive rep, more minutes, and reasonably equivalent offensive production to Sam Jones. On the other hand, he did it mainly in the 50s while Jones did it mainly in the 60s and I have the 60s as a considerably stronger league. One of the biggest jumps in NBA strength over a very short game was going from the end of the 50s to the beginning of the 60s and adding the likes of Wilt, Russell, Oscar, and Jerry West but also a significant playstyle difference. I compare players within their own era but I do take into account era strength which is why I have Sam Jones higher than Bill Sharman. I also think that Cousy's playmaking was more of a factor in getting easy assisted baskets than the KC Jones/Russell/Havlicek shared playmaking of the mid to late 60s Celtics.

As for Cousy's defense, the quote I remember best was Red Auerbach hoping NOT to get stuck with Cousy in the dispersion draft and specifically disparaging Cousy's defense. That was early in Cousy's career but it's from arguably the NBA's greatest talent evaluator.


As an era-relativist, I get irked when the only(or predominant) argument someone can come up with for one player over another is "tougher era".

I also take issue with "reasonably equivalent offensive production" when Sharman was significantly more efficient relative to his competition.

Ultimately though, my real gripe isn't that you might take Jones over Sharman(though I disagree with it), it's the fact that Sharman didn't make the Top 100 at all last time(or the time before that) while Jones made it both times. I just want to make sure Sharman is in the conversation because I don't see any argument for him not to make the list if Jones is in.

Or we can exclude both :D

Sam Jones does look better by WOWY, mostly by default:
In ’61, Sharman missed 18 games and the Celtics were (again) better without him.

This trend would hold throughout most of Russell’s career. In ’66, Sam Jones missed eight games and Boston’s performance didn’t budge. Jones missed 11 more contests in ’69 and the team was about 2 points worse without him. All told, as the roster cycled around Russell, his impact seemed to remain

I would have pause considering either for the top 100 simply because they were on championship teams. I also know some voters here have put stock into moonbeam's version of psuedo-rapm where Russell is the gold standard regularized and torches the field to a degree no one else across history does with his raw inputs(doubles 2nd place Wilt iirc over a certain stretch). Lots of emphasis on points and ts add on average offenses seems odd. Sam Jones defense has been praised but he is a guard and the defenses don't actually seem to care too much about whether he's there or not. 1969 is probably not fair since it's 6th man Sam Jones, but 1966 Sam Jones put up one of his highest point totals and fg percentages so if that version is not making a signficant impact, why is he being voted in here, let alone Sherman?

Honestly would be wierd to be putting more of Russell's teammates on this list than last time when we have a bunch of new evidence/argumentation suggesting Russell is more valuable individually than people were crediting him as the last go around and we have a bunch of new players to consider. Do these players actually warrant being considered over 100 other nba players?

Am pretty open to Cousy since he was post-prime with his own unimpressive signal and I assume he did something to earn the MVP but...
trex_8063 wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:Could you elaborate on that profile? All I recall was Ben's writeup saying the Celtics got better without him over multiple >10 game samples in Cousy's post-prime and a bunch of breakdowns her arguing he was kind of done by 60.



Will first emphasize that your above comments appear to specifically delineate Cousy's post-prime. And I'll also acknowledge that the league/game progressed faster than Cousy did as a player.

That said, the limited/noisy impact metric from the very same source (Ben Taylor) reflects decently upon Cousy: his prime WOWYR is +4.4, career +3.9.

As always, when using these sorts of numbers I think it can be worthwhile to check what the sample here is. I don't know what exact years are factored into prime, but up until 1957, Cousy doesn't really miss time with the exception of 52 and 51 where the Celtics see a +1.3 SRS improvement when Cousy joins. I don't highlight that to criticize rookie Cousy, but rather to highlight a potential discrepancy:

With how WOWYR works(this is true in general when you take stretched singals vs concentrated ones but WOWYR's "adjustments" compound this considerably), that +3.9(and perhaps to a degree the +4.4) is disproportionately operating off that 1951 and 1952 wothout sample and transposing it as part of the off for all the other years(where cousy barely misses time) as well. Also note, unlike Moonbeam's version, the much larger sampled +1.3 mark is not factored in at all.

In other words, that score, mantained over a very small per-season sample, is likely significantly inflated by 9 games coming with a much weaker cast from Cousy's first two years.

I am also somewhat concerned with the lack of success in this pre-russell prime period where the team does not make a single final in a very weak league winnig a grand total of 4 series. The term "offensive dynasty" is thrown around for the Cousy years, but success on one side of the court is really not the point.

The Celtics having goat-level defenses is cool, but it matters to the degree it helped produce the most successful team ever, not because the goat defense isinofitself of extreme importance. Good on them for having the best offenses pre-Russell, but does it really matter if they weren't the all that close to being the best team?

eminence wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:As always, when using these sorts of numbers I think it can be worthwhile to check what the sample here is. I don't know what exact years are factored into prime, but up until 1957, Cousy doesn't really miss time with the exception of 52 and 51 where the Celtics see a +1.3 SRS improvement when Cousy joins. I don't highlight that to criticize rookie Cousy, but rather to highlight a potential discrepancy:

With how WOWYR works(this is true in general when you take stretched singals vs concentrated ones but WOWYR's "adjustments" compound this considerably), that +3.9(and perhaps to a degree the +4.4) is disproportionately operating off that 1951 and 1952 wothout sample and transposing it as part of the off for all the other years(where cousy barely misses time) as well. Also note, unlike Moonbeam's version, the much larger sampled +1.3 mark is not factored in at all.

In other words, that score, mantained over a very small per-season sample, is likely significantly inflated by 9 games coming with a much weaker cast from Cousy's first two years.

I am also somewhat concerned with the lack of success in this pre-russell prime period where the team does not make a single final in a very weak league winnig a grand total of 4 series. The term "offensive dynasty" is thrown around for the Cousy years, but success on one side of the court is really not the point.

The Celtics having goat-level defenses is cool, but it matters to the degree it helped produce the most successful team ever, not because the goat defense isinofitself of extreme importance. Good on them for having the best offenses pre-Russell, but does it really matter if they weren't the all that close to being the best team?


On Cousy.

I think his early career WOWY signal is unfortunately impossible to pin down.

He/Macauley arrive in Boston at the same time, the league contracts from 17 to 10.5 teams, both the without and with samples have large gaps between their ratings/win% (in opposing directions). It all combines to make the '50 vs '51 Celtics comparison very difficult, though I think it's clear the two combine with Red to turn the franchise around (they were absolute garbage their first four seasons and turned into a consistent .500+/playoff squad).

He then misses a grand total of 1 RS game prior to '57.

Agreed that 'offensive dynasty' oversells the Celtics of the period (hey, sometimes we're all sellers). They were a decent to good team, built around a strong offense. Related - I believe they only won 3 series over that period (you may have counted the '54 round robin as two wins).

0-2 vs Knicks '51
1-2 vs Knicks '52
2-0 vs Nats '53
1-3 vs Knicks '53
2-2 '54 Round Robin (2-0 vs Knicks, 0-2 vs Nats)
0-2 vs Nats '54
2-1 vs Knicks '55
1-3 vs Nats '55
1-2 vs Nats '56

For comparison the other Eastern conference squads from '51-'56 (not counting tiebreakers).
Knicks 6 series wins
Nats 8 (counting the '54 round robin as 2 wins)
Warriors 2 (their '56 title)

A worse but healthier version of the Lob City Clippers.
[/quote]

My current sentiment on inclusion in the top 100 for both is Cousy as a maybe(entirely on the basis of him winning an MVP really), and Sam Jones as a no. The former does not have notable team-success in the "prime" we don't have substantial data for and Russell's Celtics play better without him in the post-period.

For the latter, we have a peak signal where the Celtics do not drop-off without him, a marginal bit of lift in the year he's a 6th man, and is his claim to fame is scoring prowess on an average offense with the possiblity that this is a result of scheme(which still only works if we assume Sam Jones had substantially better impact than what can be discerned statistically).

Possible he's just gotten unlucky with the games he's missed, but the evidence for Jones being top-100 worthy just isn't there I think

(note: at this point it would mainly be sam jones skepticsm for me)[/quote]
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#49 » by LA Bird » Sun Feb 25, 2024 2:53 pm

Vote: Rudy Gobert
Nom: Bob Cousy


Gobert - one of the best defenders of last 30 years and his longevity is nearing someone like Ben Wallace. Limited offensive skillset but he is very effective in what he does. Somewhat of an outlier but his 2021 season as a standalone peak is low key really good.

Cousy - elite team offenses pre-Russell which were still good in the first few seasons depending on calculation methodology. This is more of a vote against Iverson who I think is somewhat overrated as a floor raiser when it comes to how bad his teams were without him and how much lift he was providing.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#50 » by ShaqAttac » Sun Feb 25, 2024 3:10 pm

why it break when i comeback

hmmm its been a while but I guess

VOTE] Lowry?

He won a chip and led okay teams. I dont really know who to vote for tbh.

I'll Nom

Walton

Won a chip and mvp and swept Kareem.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#51 » by HeartBreakKid » Sun Feb 25, 2024 3:57 pm

Vote: Rudy Gobert - Most consistent player here, he has won or deserved to win DPOY for like 4 or 5 years. Best rebounder in the game. Leads the league in TS%. He has anchored pretty good defenses even on rosters filled with poor defenders. I like guys like Rodman, but I think Gobert as a lob threat makes him more scalable on offense.

Alternate vote: Cliff Hagan

Nomination: Bill Walton
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#52 » by Clyde Frazier » Sun Feb 25, 2024 6:03 pm

Vote 1 - Adrian Dantley
Vote 2 - Dennis Rodman
Nomination 1 - Allen Iverson
Nomination 2 - Bob Cousy


Looking at the controversy with dantley leaving DET and them winning the championship following his departure, and it seems overblown. Dantley’s averages in the '88 finals (loss) are as follows:

21.3 PPG, 5 RPG, 2.3 APG, .6 SPG, 57.3% FG, 85.6% FT, 67.6% TS, 127 ORTG

Games 6 and 7 of the 88 finals were decided by a total of 4 points, and this was with a substandard game 7 by the injured isiah thomas. If he’s healthy, they very well could’ve won the title that year. I don’t hold the turn of events against dantley all that much relative to general perception.

Some great research here by Moonbeam on Dantley and other star SFs of the 80s:

Moonbeam wrote:I love looking at these guys because most of my favorite players are small forwards, and it was such an exciting time to watch, as these guys were each capable of amazing offensive outbursts.

Spoiler:
One thing I've taken a hard look at is how to weigh up offensive statistics in the context of team offense. There has been a fair bit of discussion in the Top 100 poll about how to gauge individual performance based on team performance (e.g. Garnett's Minny teams did not generally excel on defense, how to compare Kidd's team offenses to Payton's given teammate quality), so I tried to come up with a rough model of expectations for team offense.

I used offensive win shares as the basis for this analysis. I know many aren't happy with OWS, but on a team-level, it is very strongly correlated with offensive rating, which is a good measure of overall team offensive performance. I looked at all regular season data from 1977-2014 to come up with a set of aging curves to encompass different types of peak shapes. I've used five different levels of peak sharpness and five different peak ages (21, 24, 27, 30, and 33), which makes it possible to model a player's career based on OWS/48, like this:

Image

This is a very simple approach, but I wanted something specific enough to broadly capture the relationship between offensive production and aging, but not too specific as to produce perfect models - I'm interested in the deviations from expectations, after all, so I'm happy with a bit of noise. :)

Based on these curves of expected OWS/48, I then looked at team offense relative to expectations as judged by total OWS. I'm still looking to road-test this analysis, so if you know of any instances where you felt a team overachieved or underachieved its talent level, I'd be eager to check it against my model!

I parsed out performance relative to expectations for each of these players plus Larry Bird (in >28 MPG seasons) and their respective teammates as a whole. Why 28 MPG? I wanted to include enough seasons to get a big picture view, plus I wanted to avoid discontinuities where I could (e.g. Bernard King's 1988 season). Here are the resulting plots of player OWS, player expected OWS, teammate ("help") OWS and expected teammate OWS:

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Over this span, here are the MP-weighted averages for player OWS, % of team OWS, both rate and raw difference of help OWS to expectations:

Code: Select all

Player   WtOWS   %Off  Help Rate  Help Diff
Aguirre  5.112  0.166    1.018      +0.428
Bird     7.429  0.220    1.048      +1.056
Dantley  8.803  0.394    0.844      -2.155
English  6.536  0.246    1.016      +0.307
Johnson  5.954  0.253    1.040      +0.636
King     4.466  0.269    0.887      -1.413
Wilkins  6.084  0.255    1.015      +0.260
Worthy   5.065  0.155    1.116      +2.809


On the surface, it looks like Dantley (and to a lesser extent, King) may be getting their Win Shares somewhat at the expense of teammates, while Bird and Worthy are associated with boosts for their teammates. How much praise (or blame) should be apportioned for performance of teammates is up for debate, but I think it at least provides a framework for comparison.

Taking a look at the 5-year intervals in the OP:

Code: Select all

Player  Years   WtOWS   %Off  Help Rate  Help Diff
Aguirre 84-88   5.920  0.187    1.041      +1.005
Bird    84-88   9.933  0.302    0.989      -0.257
Dantley 80-84  11.213  0.553    1.083      +0.606
English 82-86   7.849  0.268    1.026      +0.548
Johnson 79-83   7.192  0.275    1.057      +0.984
King    81-85   6.675  0.323    0.919      -1.268
Wilkins 86-90   7.835  0.270    1.158      +2.891
Worthy  86-90   6.465  0.180    1.181      +4.496


Dantley is clearly the leader in both OWS and percentage of team offense (some of those supporting casts in Utah look dreadful), but perhaps he didn't provide the "lift" as others (or worse, perhaps his presence deflated his teammates offense). If we split his career into phases, it seems his early career is where his teammates fared the worst (0.731 rate, fit issues with Lakers?), while in Utah they performed nearly to (awful) expectations (0.968 rate), while in Detroit during 87-88, the rate fell to 0.801 (problems of fit with Isiah?), and across 89-90, it was 0.935.

I don't think Worthy's help numbers are attributable to him so much as they are to Magic, but he clearly fit into Showtime quite well. Wilkins looks like he could have provided decent lift across 86-90, and Aguirre's apparent issues with teammates did not seem to affect his teams' offenses.


I've got H2H stats I can post later, but I thought I'd put this out there as it's a fascinating comparison for me. :)


Entire discussion here:

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=41264223#p41264223
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#53 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Feb 25, 2024 6:26 pm

Personal vote:

Induction 1: Kyle Lowry
Induction 2: Cliff Hagan


So, I'm still not all the way in on championing Lowry - I have issues with him that I've mentioned, but to be honest, looking at him with the other candidates he's got a serious argument against each, because of course they all have flaws.

Aside from the two I'm giving votes to, I'd probably go Rodman > Dantley > Gobert with the rest. I have more confidence in Rodman's ability to play with a champion than the other two.

Nomination 1: Jayson Tatum
Nomination 2: Bob Cousy


Continuing to side with Tatum who I think people have not realized how much he's accomplished.

Among the other major contenders I'll side with Cousy. He's a flawed candidate, but he played a huge role on the most successful team you could get.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#54 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Feb 25, 2024 6:38 pm

Tallies:

Induction 1:

Dantley - 6 (trex, beast, Jimmy, Samurai, OSNB, Clyde)
Rodman - 2 (AEnigma, eminence)
Lowry - 4 (iggy, hcl, ShaqA, Doc)
Gobert - 4 (trelos, Ohayo, LA Bird, HBK)

No majority. Going to Vote 2 between Dantley, Lowry & Gobert:

Dantley - 0 (none)
Lowry - 2 (AEnigma, eminence)
Gobert - 0 (none)
none - 0 (none)

Eliminating Gobert continuing with Dantley vs Lowry:

Dantley - 0 (none)
Lowry - 1 (trelos)
neither - 3 (Ohayo, LA Bird, HBK)

Kyle Lowry 7, Adrian Dantley 6
Kyle Lowry is Inducted at #76.
Image

Nomination 1:

Iverson - 5 (trex, AEnigma, OSNB, Ohayo, Clyde)
Sam - 2 (beast, Samurai)
Baron - 2 (iggy, hcl)
Cousy - 3 (Jimmy, eminence, LA Bird)
Nance - 1 (trelos)
Walton - 2 (ShaqA, HBK)
Tatum - 1 (Doc)

No majority, going to Vote 2 between Iverson & Cousy:

Iverson - 0 (none)
Cousy - 2 (beast, Doc)
neither - 6 (Samurai, iggy, hcl, trelos, ShaqA, HBK)

Allen Iverson 5, Bob Cousy 5. Tie, both Nominated, and no Nomination vote will happen next time.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Kyle Lowry) 

Post#55 » by LA Bird » Sun Feb 25, 2024 6:53 pm

Lowry going from 0 nomination votes in #74 to being nominated in #75 and then inducted in #76 is the most unexpected thing ever.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Kyle Lowry) 

Post#56 » by OhayoKD » Sun Feb 25, 2024 6:56 pm

LA Bird wrote:Lowry going from 0 nomination votes in #74 to being nominated in #75 and then inducted in #76 is the most unexpected thing ever.

He is the strongest
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Kyle Lowry) 

Post#57 » by VanWest82 » Sun Feb 25, 2024 7:44 pm

I haven't been following this at all but I'm glad to see Kyle made top 100. I haven't done a list in a long time but he "feels" like a top 100 guy. I get the knock on his pre-Raptors career, but his 2014-2020 stretch is still somehow underrated imo by most fans. Like, I still see the arguments for Conley > Lowry.

Kyle is one of the most cerebral players I've ever watched play. I could point to his rapm or whatever, but his gift was in understanding what his team needed and being able to fill that role. He couldn't be the #1 guy deep in the playoffs as Derozan was constantly melting down. People knock him for that, and I suppose that's fair. Kyle wasn't a superstar. But he was a winner in the truest sense, even if his antics were probably annoying to opposing fans a lot of the time.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Kyle Lowry) 

Post#58 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Feb 25, 2024 7:56 pm

LA Bird wrote:Lowry going from 0 nomination votes in #74 to being nominated in #75 and then inducted in #76 is the most unexpected thing ever.


Always makes me a bit nervous when something like this happens. It speaks to the imperfection in the process as either the voter pool was wrong 2 threads ago or wrong now. But of course, we know it's never truly 'right', so we can only do our best.

I will say that I do think it represents a situation where the right data view came along at the right time. Seeing that Lowry looks cleanly better than any other non-inducted guy by 5-year RAPM excellence helped him go from many guys on the outside looking in to be someone the group could consolidate around.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Kyle Lowry) 

Post#59 » by OhayoKD » Sun Feb 25, 2024 8:11 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
LA Bird wrote:Lowry going from 0 nomination votes in #74 to being nominated in #75 and then inducted in #76 is the most unexpected thing ever.


Always makes me a bit nervous when something like this happens. It speaks to the imperfection in the process as either the voter pool was wrong 2 threads ago or wrong now. But of course, we know it's never truly 'right', so we can only do our best.

I will say that I do think it represents a situation where the right data view came along at the right time. Seeing that Lowry looks cleanly better than any other non-inducted guy by 5-year RAPM excellence helped him go from many guys on the outside looking in to be someone the group could consolidate around.

Our voting process breaks down more frequently this far in I think; alot of the voting now is not "who do I think should be nominated" but "who am i fine with being nominated with". Possible people had lowry in mind but were just waiting for some evidence it wasn't a wasted vote. I was personally wanting to nominate Lowry earlier but I didn't see much of a point until I saw iggy's vote.

Then after doing the math, I swapped my alternate and that was game I guess
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Kyle Lowry) 

Post#60 » by trelos6 » Sun Feb 25, 2024 9:33 pm

Cliff Hagan was nominated at #62. Lost a few close ones in the late 60’s and now is barely getting a mention.

I guess that’s how it goes.

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