https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=116276149#p116276149
Now we look at another:
A couple of months ago I tracked this game to get a better idea of Lebron’s offense. Now we’re looking to see how he fares defensively and get a better idea of his role in the 2007 Cavs -5 defense and his contribution towards their -6 finals performance.
Here are the countables that have been tracked across the previous three threads (excepting the 2000 Duncan one):
Spoiler:
There is a great deal more grey area here than with the creation stuff I think. Vetting and perhaps some discussion on what should be counted or not counted is welcomed. If you just want to see the numbers you can control+F for “Tally and Analysis”.
Let’s begin.
{Note: I got my wires crossed and thought Big Z was Anderson Varejoa. Every mention of “Big Z” is referring to Varejao, not Ilgauskas)
[b]Possession 1 - 0:11
Lebron starts the possession in the paint and for a few seconds is the only defender near the rim. If I counted secondary paint-protection he would have that. Instead he’ll settle for a co-PPD, switching to Finley at the 3-point line, staying with him, and getting off a decent contest
(Lebron - 1 PPD, 1 EPPD)
Possession 2 - 1:03
Lebron keeps track of his man at the elbow and the possession ends early.
Possession 3 - 1:45
Lebron squeaks in his first IA (1) as the ball-handler throws it to the other side. Lebron then watches from the elbow as Parker dices up the Cavs.
Possession 4 - 2:25
Lebron gets a second IA (2) as Bowen opts to drive on the other side only for Lebron to chase him and deny him at the rim strong-side.
(Lebron - 1 PP, 1 EPP, 2 PPD, 2 EPPD)
Possession 5 - 3:02
Lebron spends the possession near the rim tracking center Olberto. His teammate is the one who tries and fails to contest a shot. Lebron again will have to settle for being the secondary.
Possession 6 - 3:57
Lebron backtracks and doesn’t do much to help as Parker burns his defender and then burns another defender at the basket.
Possession 7 - 4:30
Lebron guards Parker, initially deters a pass to Duncan and then gets around him to stay on Parker. Parker uses this to find Duncan and Ilgauskas drop back quick enough to stop him.
(Lebron - 3 PPD)
Possession 8 - 5:10
Lebron is initially on Parker who quickly throws it away to someone else and then relocates to the opposite elbow to receive the ball. Lebron follows him, deters a pass, and then gets stuck on a screen and is late to contest his shot.
(Lebron - 4 PPD, 1 IPPD)
Possession 9 - 6:05
Lebron watches Parker from the free-throw line
Possession 10 - 6:37
Lebron gets back to the paint on the fastbreak and lets two teammates try to stop Parker. The result is a foul
Possession 11 - 10:07
Outlet nearly catches everyone off-guard but Big Z recovers in time to stop the layup. Lebron moves to assist but help’s already arrived.
Possession 12 - 10:40
Lebron gets a third IA (3) as Parker takes it to the other side with 4 defenders instead of driving against Lebron and the side-line. Lebron avoids 2 screens to stay attached, and then helps on Duncan forcing him to kickout to Parker as Lebron switches to someone on the opposite corner. Gibson is late to switch but Parker misses anyway.
(Lebron - 5 PPD, 3 EPPD)
Possession 13 - 11:31
Lebron notches another IA (4) as the Spurs opt to screen and drive it to the opposite side with 3 defenders as opposed to driving on the two-defender side Lebron is on. Felt weird about this one as Lebron wasn’t the one on the guy but IA’s have never necessitated being the primary perimeter guy so it is what it is. Maybe I should add a prerequisite that you are between the defender and the basket when the IA occurs. Alternatively I could count IAs where the player is between the ball-handler and the basket “strong” and IAs where the player is not as “weak”. Regardless, the screen doesn’t really work and the ball is lobbed back to 12 who quickly bounce passes it to Duncan as Lebron moves towards him. Lebron switches to Manu as Bowen shoots.
Possession 14 - 12:51
Lebron notches another IA (5) though this would classify as “weak” by the earlier definition. Feel quite a bit better about this one though as he is literally the only defender on his side and it’s not at an angle. Lebron starts the possession at the edge of the paint on an island. The ball is pinged criss-cross to Bowen with Big Z handling Duncan well and Lebron reaches him preventing any attempt at a drive as Big Z closes the gap. Bowen then throws it to Duncan who drags Big Z away from the basket but is denied a passing window by lebron as Bowen tries to get free by the rim. Duncan is then doubled and forced to throw the ball to Manu who gets the shot off before a speeding Lebron can get there. I think it’s fair to count him and Big Z as co-primaries at the paint and the perimeter. Since he’s late to contest Ginobli I think i’ll have to count him as ineffective on the latter count though.
(Lebron - 2 PP, 2 EPP, 6 PPD, 2 IPPD)
Possession 15 - 13:25
Lebron is the last line of defense as Manu fastbreaks to the basket and…doesn’t even jump to stop him. I don’t really get why. What’s the point of accelerating to follow manu if you’re not going to do anything?
(Lebron - 3 PP, 1 IPP)
Possession 16 - 14:45
Lebron spends the duration of the possession on an island at the edge of the paint briefly stepping in as Manu runs near the basket. Co-primary by default I guess. Isn’t really involved much in the action which almost entirely transpires on the perimeter. Big Z doesn’t spend as much time by the paint but he does contain Duncan for a bit albeit with some help so he would be a primary too.
(Lebron - 4 PP)
Possession 17 - 15:45
Lebron moves to help Big Z on Duncan when he receives the entry pass and then switches back to the elbow. He goes out to the three-point to prevent any pass to Horry and then rushes back to grab a board with the help of Big Z sealing off Duncan. Good possession but this sort of “help a bit everywhere” approach isn’t conducive to racking up PPs or PPDs.
Possession 18 - 17:18
Lebron waits at the edge. Is briefly on Olberto.
Possession 19 - 18:10
Lebron with another “weak” IA (6) as Ginobli opts to drive on the side with less space and more defenders than Lebron’s. Ginobli misses and Lebron grabs a rebound over a lurking Olberto with the assistance of Big Z again.
Possession 20 - 19:14
Spurs have 5 seconds to get off a shot. Lebron quickly switches onto Ginobli right before a low bullet is thrown to him and contests his shot well. Ginobli misses.
(Lebron - 7 PPD, 4 EPPD)
Possession 21 - 21:20
Lebron gets around a screen to meet Finley, tracks him at the corner from the edge of a vacated paint area, and then goes out and contests his shot well. Think he’s at least a co-primary on the perimeter here.
(Lebron - 8 PPD, 5 EPPD)
Possession 22 - 21:50
Lebron watches Manu from the top of the key as the action unfolds behind him.
Possession 23 - 23:08
Lebron picks up Ginobli on the fast break and walls him off at the basket (with help from Big Z) pressuring him into an errant pass leading to a turnover. Primary paint dude and co-primary perimeter dude seems fair.
(Lebron - 5 PP, 3 EPP, 9 PPD, 6 EPPD)
Possession 24 - 23:43
Lebron watches from the top of the key as Marshall forces a deflection.
Possession 25 - 24:40
Lebron watches Parker while preventing a roll and catch from Duncan. I’m not sure why the Cavs don’t just have big Z contest Parker but he goes backwards and Lebron takes too long to get around what is now a screen to contest Parker. Parker misses. Tough assignment but ineffectiveness is ineffectiveness.
(Lebron - 10 PPD, 3 IPPD)
Possession 26 - 25:05
Tracks back on the break but stays uninvolved in the action.
(Lebron is subbed out)
(Lebron comes back in at 32:16)
Possession 27 - 33:04
Lebron keeps track of Bowen in the corner right outside of the paint, watching Parker discombulate 3 cleveland defenders under the basket creating an opening for an easy Dunk for Duncan.
Possession 28 - 35:30
Lebron isn’t really involved in the action pre or post inbound.
Possession 29 - 35:37
Lebron is the last to get back and the ball goes out of bounds. Lebron picks up Parker on the inbound and avoids a screen to stay attached and is then ran into a second screen as Parker kicks it out to Bowen who misses. Spurs get the rebound and there’s some defensive miscommunication as both Lebron and Big Z go to Manu, and Gibson goes to Bowen and no one bothers to stop Parker from driving and laying it in. I would think Big Z was supposed to stay in the paint since you know, he’s the Cavs primary rim-protector but I guess that means Manu would get an off-ball edto if I was tracking him. I’m not though.
Possession 30 - 37:25
Lebron briefly guards Bowen at the elbow before he passes it off.
Possession 31 - 35:18
Lebron is on Tony Parker and then backs off a bit to help prevent Duncan from rolling. Parker drives inside and Lebron walls him off. Parker kicks it out to Manu who draws 2 cavs and finds Duncan who Lebron initially moves towards. Duncan tips it to Parker who Lebron switches back on forcing him to pass it off to Ginobli.
(Lebron - 11 PPD, 7 EPPD)
Possession 32 - 39:30
Lebron starts the possession backing towards the basket and end up on an island by the hoop with Parker. Parker curls back to get the ball and tries to drive through the middle but Lebron chases, avoids a Bowen screen, and shadows him, helping force a deflected pass. On the inbound Parker cuts to the perimeter and Lebron follows him. Parker gets the ball and Lebron muscles past a Duncan screen to stay attached. With Parker preparing to shoot, Lebron gets screened by another center(Elson) and drops with Big Z coming up. Big Z is late to contest but Parker misses. Lebron seals Elson to help his team secure the board.
(Lebron - 12 PPD, 8 EPPD)
Possession 33 - 40:49
Lebron watches Parker from the edge of the paint leaving Big Z to try and fail to stop Elson at the basket.
Possession 34 - 43:31
Lebron picks up another IA (7) as Parker takes advantage of Elson screening Lebron by driving down the more crowded and less spacious side of the court. Lebron starts the possession on Parker. He then switches onto Elson after Parker drives elsewhere.
(Lebron - 13 PPD)
Possession 35 - 44:00
Lebron picks up Parker at the elbow and then follows him as he swings it and cuts inside. Finley’s man moves to double Duncan and Lebron runs out from under the basket to contest late. Cavs fail to secure the rebound and Lebron watches Duncan hit a floater and win a foul. I originally had this as an IPPD but have been convinced that’s not really fair.
(Lebron - 14 PPD)
Possession 36 - 45:05
Lebron watches from the edge of the paint.
Possession 37 - 45:47
Lebron backs into Duncan at the free-throw line and then goes late to try and stop Duncan from getting a rebound. Duncan ends up giving the ball to Lebron as another defender forces him out of bounds.
Possession 38 - 46:16
Lebron gets another IA (8) as Parker passes it to the more crowded opposite side. The possession starts with Lebron picking up Parker. Parker throws it to the other side and moves. Lebron follows and then gets around a Duncan screen to stay connected to Parker as he penetrates. Parker kicks it out to Finley on the other side again and then curls to the elbow to receive the ball again failing to shake off Lebron. Parker finally gets a new matchup as Oberto screens Lebron forcing a switch. Parker promptly turns it over having committed himself to driving into traffic rather than against #23.
(Lebron - 15 PPD, 9 EPPD)
Possession 39 - 46:56
Lebron spends the possession on Parker being forced to go around an Oberto screen giving Parker an opening to squeeze it to the center. Oberto misses the jumper and Lebron flies to secure a rebound with no Spurs around.
(Lebron - 16 PP)
Possession 40 - 47:50
Lebron gets another IA (9) as Parker again passes to the opposite side despite it having more defenders and less space. Lebron stays with Parker at the top of the key and watches the Spurs brick an open look and then turn it over.
Tally and Analysis
Paint-Protection - Lebron
Spoiler:
Perimeter Defense - Lebron
Spoiler:
During Lebron’s first 40 possessions, I gave him, 5 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 3 and ineffective in 1. Lebron also was given 16 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 9 and ineffective in 3. Additionally Lebron was given 9 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Lebron averaged, 0.125 PPs, 0.075 EPPs, 0.025 IPPs, 0.4 PPDs, 0.225 EPPDs, 0.075 IPPDs, and 0.225 IAs.
For comparison here is how the other two players tracked with this system faired:
Spoiler:
Here’s how other players fared in terms of Paint-usage (only Duncan and Drob (1999 finals) had efficacy tracked)
Spoiler:
Now that we have a high impact big, guard, and wing tracked, I think there’s more discussion to be had. Presuming this sample is representative Lebron does better than Kidd across-the-board with more effective usage on both the perimeter and interior, more positive usage on both the perimeter, and the interior, and less ineffective usage on both the perimeter and usage. I noted there were 2 other possessions I’d credit Kidd as the secondary paint-protector but there are at least three additional ones I’d count that for Lebron. That he does that while also being more active and effective on the perimeter as Tony Parker’s primary matchup seal’s Lebron’s performance as more impressive.
In general I’d say this is clearly the best perimeter-defensive performance I’ve seen in tracking with the caveat that I’ve mainly been tracking bigs who tend to have less perimeter usage. The Spurs clearly made a point of trying to avoiding Lebron (the most blatant example of this coming in possession 38 where Parker and the Spurs reset not once, not twice, but three times before a second screen forced a switch) with Parker in particular repeatedly getting multiple screens set in several possessions, and repeatedly preferring his luck vs multiple defenders (and repeatedly losing the ball facing the increased traffic). This is reflected in an outlier-ly high IA count (the previous record was 4 from 97 Hakeem though on a per-possession rate 86 Hakeem was on pace for 8 without Sampson in the first game of the finals).
There seems to have been a trade-off though: compared to other team-leading wings, Lebron’s usage in the paint was pretty low with him tallying less than half the PPs Pippen or Grant did in 91 and what Oakley tallied in 94/88, and a third of what Pippen tallied in 94. And on that note I wonder if part of the reason the Spurs are attacking the other side more is the confidence that Lebron isn’t going to help at the basket: I only counted 2 plays Lebron moved to help from the weakside. Lebron was uniquely effective in that limited role, but it was a comparatively limited role. Interestingly in their creation tracking, Tsherkin noted Lebron wasn’t being put on Parker a bunch defensively during game 4. It might be worth seeing if that leads to him being used in the paint more and how well he handled that.
Still, overall I’d ballpark Lebron as the third most used paint-defender on top of being the most used perimeter defender and being highly effective. MAMBA’s creator has argued that Lebron’s defense is missed in conventional box-scores and him registering zero steals or blocks during this stretch (including 2 plays he directly stopped someone at the paint) seems like a supporting data-point.
I will add that while Lebron was by far the cavs most active perimeter defender, Big Z looked like their clear primary paint-protector. I’d be surprised if he didn’t rack up at least 10 PPs.
As a final note, I think I’m going to make some tweaks to my tracking system starting with IAs:
1. Differentiate between “strong” and “weak” IAs. A strong IA must either have the opposite side have 4 defenders, or the player getting the IA must be directly between the ball-handler and the basket and closer to the top of the key than the sideline.
2. Input a defensive counterpart for DTOS (defenders taken out) called DKI (defenders kept in) to function as an inclusive measure of help and team defense. I’ll save the details of that for another thread.
I’m feeling like doing Wade or Kawhi after I finish my Duncan tracking. Kawhi in particular might be an interesting test-run for revamped IA tracking. Wade is considered the greatest shot-blocking guard by many so it would be interesting to see if that manifests in unusually high paint-usage.
Will end with the same list of caveats I always end with.
Spoiler:
Next tracking will look at 2003 Duncan’s perimeter defense.