https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2425267
Now we look at a guard.
Guards generally struggle to showcase significant defensive impact. Even the ones racking up blocks and steals and DPOYs:
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“Generally” because there’s at least one exception:
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Why is Kidd’s data so good? He barely collects blocks and he gets steals at a lower clip than the first two. Well, a hypothesis was presented in the ongoing retro poy project:
Paulluxx9000 wrote:Finally there’s Kidd. The best ever defensive guard? 204. 6’4, He’s strong and stout which means when attackers are thinking of driving he spooks them alot more often than a jumpy shotblocker like Jordan or Wade. He’s a mini-duncan in a way. On time, at the right place at the right time in the right way. He just knows where he needs to be and why he needs to be there. And he knos where the others need to be and makes sure they get there too.
Jason Kidd, 6’4, averaging 0.3 blocks a game is a better paint-protector than taller, if lankier, block accumulators? He weighs more so “strong and stout” makes sense but thus far no guard has even crossed 4 per 40-possession in any of the tracking with the most PPs for a tracked game coming to Jordan in 1988 vs the Knicks when he recorded 3 (the record is 5 by 6’8 Reid in the 86 finals if one considers him an SG):
Spoiler:
Blocks don’t seem to correlate that strongly with usage thus far:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2421706
But height does. Is Kidd’s stoutness and strength really enough here?
To start to answer this we’ll look at the film. Specifically the first 40 possessions of game 6 of the 2003 Finals where Kidd anchored his team within 2 games of an inaugural nba championship. Fwiw, in the game tracked, Kidd recorded 1 steal, 2 defensive rebounds, and 0 blocks.
Here are the countables we’re using:
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There is a great deal more grey area here than with the creation stuff I think. Vetting and perhaps some discussion on what should be counted or not counted is welcomed. If you just want to see the numbers you can control+F for “Tally and Analysis”.
Let’s begin.
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NOTE: I accidentally kept a possession from another game in the tracking, I don't want to redo all the numbers so there is a "Real possession 40" after "possession 40"
Possession 1 - 1:48
Game footage freezes at 1:54 but it seems Kidd is just watching his man by the sideline
Possession 2 - 2:09
Pretty much the same as 1.
Possession 3 - 2:28
KiddSlay is one of two defenders to start the possession in the paint and then holds off Duncan on an island with no one behind for several seconds. Kidd Slay then swipes at a driving Bowen without fouling or stripping, does the bulk of the work preventing Duncan from challenging for a rebound, challenges Robinson. He’s also the defender closest to the basket on the inbound.
(Kidd - 1 PP, 1 EPP, 1 PPD, 1 EPPD)
Possession 4 - 3:40
Kidd picks up Parker and tries to funnel him into a sea of defenders. Doesn’t work out but doesn’t look like a blowby.
(Kidd - 1 PPD)
Possession 5 - 4:21
Kenyon Martin is the primary.
Possession 6 - 5:10
Rotates too late to help.
Possession 7 - 6:00
Moves to help on the post up.
Possession 8 - 6:39
Seals his man to help secure a rebound.
Possession 9 - 7:00
Hangs at the elbow and the possession ends early.
Possession 10 - 7:40
Hangs at the elbow.
Possession 11 - 8:20
Deters an inside pass from manu, stays with manu a bit pressuring him to pass it off, seals a man to help with the rebound. He can get pro-primary perimeter credit here.
(Kidd - 2 PPD, 1 EPPD)
Possession 12 - 9:20
Tracks Manu for a bit, spends a little time under the basket.
Possession 13 - 9:29
Hanging around.
Possession 14 - 10:12
Tracks a man off-ball.
Possession 15 - 11:30
Chases Stephen Jackson on the fastbreak and runs into Manu fouling him. Doesn’t seem like Manu was in great position to score regardless.
(Kidd - 3 PPD, 1 IPPD)
Possession 16 - 12:45
Picks up Tony Parker, gets caught on a screen from Duncan, contests late.
(Kidd - 4 PPD, 2 IPPD)
Possession 17 - 13:10
Kidd gets his first IA (1) with Parker using a screen to go on the more crowded side of the court. Kidd fights around it to stay attached and Parker passes it off. Kidd is about to catch the ball off a miss but his teammate tips it to Duncan who fires right as Kidd enters his vicinity.
(Kidd - 5 PPD, 2 EPPD)
Possession 18 - 14:35
Kidd tracks a very active Parker off-ball, helps on Duncan who throws it to Manu who throws it to Jackson as Kidd moves towards him. Then Kidd contests Jackson well and Jackson misses.
(Kidd - 6 PPD, 3 EPPD)
Possession 19 - 15:20
Kidd tracks his man.
Possession 20 - 17:00
Rockets turnover with Hakeem up the court. Waves his hands to try and stop a long lob but the ball finds its recipient and Houston loses the 2 v 1.
Possession 21 - 18:30
Spurs fastbreak turns into free throws and then a technical free-throw
(Kidd goes out)
(Kidd comes back at 29:01)
Possession 22 - 29:01
Kidd fronts on the inbounder near the basket and rotates to try and stop Johnson from backdooring. Inbound is way off.
(Kidd - 7 PPD, 4 EPPD, 1 PP)
Possession 23 - 29:55
Kidd gets his 2nd IA (2) with the ball-handler swinging it to the more crowded side. Hangs at the edge of the paint the whole possession.
Possession 24 - 30:29
Kidd spends the most time near the basket and rotates to meet Robinson strong-side, buying enough time for Williams to knock it away.
(Kidd - 2 PPD, 1 EPPD)
Possession 25 - 31:07
Kidd hangs by the paint.
Possession 26 - 31:14
Kidd watches as San Antonio quickly squanders an extra possession.
Possession 27 - 31:52
Kidd rotates near the basket where he is –technically– the last line of defense for the most critical part of the possession. I say technically because he backs away on Duncan’s second go at the basket and Duncan gets both the bucket and free-throws.
(Kidd - 3 PP, 1 IPP)
Possession 28 - 33:50
Kidd comes up to meet Jackson with the ball. Jackson passes off but there’s a foul. Kidd is closest to the inbounder and picks him up when he gets the ball back. Kidd follows him when he gives it to Duncan preventing a give and go and then helps as Duncan spins on the post. Duncan kicks it out to Bowen who converts the wide open jumper.
(Kidd - 8 PPD, 5 EPPD)
Possession 29 - 35:05
Kidd spends a few seconds near the basket and catches the ball when Martin strips Duncan.
Possession 30 - 36:20
Kidd inches towards Robinson as he drives to “help” but Robinson just goes right by him and scores on two defenders.
Possession 31 - 36:54
Kidd starts the possession as the backline defender and then comes out to the perimeter to contain Manu then shuffles back near the basket for a potential rebound that never comes.
Possession 32 - 38:14
Kidd comes to intercept a driving Parker. Parker passes it to Manu who Kidd bumps forcing Manu to take the long way around to the basket giving Martin the opportunity to swallow him.
(Kidd - 9 PPD, 6 EPPD)
Possession 33 - 36:20
Hakeem offers help to Barkley vs Malone and battles Ostertag for position for a potential rebound. Moot as Malone’s jumper goes in.
Possession 34 - 39:45
Kidd comes to intercept Parker as he rebounds, bumping him. Parker dusts Kidd and throws it to Duncan who Kidd then watches force the ball in on the post.
(Kidd - 10 PPD, 3 IPPD)
Possession 35 - 40:50
Kidd watches from the corner as Duncan scores.
Possession 36 41:11
Kidd picks up Manu who passes it off.
Possession 37 - 42:05
Kidd watches a man in the corner then comes inside to help intercept Parker who passes it off to Bowen. Kidd moves towards Bowen, who shot 40% from 3 all season, but is too late to do anything. Bowen misses.
Possession 38 - 43:26
Kidd watches his man at the elbow.
Possession 39 - 43:50
Kidd follows his man into the paint area where he stays to offer a little help on Duncan. Helplessly watches Robinson backdoor Collins.
Possession 40 - 44:20
Kidd starts the possession watching a man on the corner before shuffling near the basket. Backs away as Robinson goes up and Williams fouls him.
The Real Possession 40
Kidd watches from the opposite edge of the paint as Collins misses. Kidd goes up for an uncontested rebound but his teammate gets it and gives it to Kidd.
Tally and Analysis
Paint Protection - Kidd
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Perimeter Defense - Kidd
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During Kidd’s first 40 possessions, I gave him, 3 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 1 and ineffective in 1. Kidd was also given 10 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 6 and ineffective in 3. Additionally Kidd was given 2 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Kidd averaged, 0.075 PPs, 0.025 EPPs, 0.025 IPPs, 0.25 PPDs, 0.15 EPPDs, 0.075 IPPDs, and 0.05 IAs.
The only other defender all these inputs have been tracked for is 97 Hakeem. During Hakeem’s first 40 possessions of the 6th game of the 97 WCF, I gave him 27 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 13 and ineffective in 7. Hakeem also was given 4 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 3 and ineffective in 1. Additionally Hakeem was given 4 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Hakeem averaged, 0.675 PPs, 0.325 EPPs, 0.175 IPPs, 0.1 PPDs, 0.075 EPPDs, 0.025 IPPDs, and 0.1 IAs.
The only other guards to have their PPs counted are Micheal Jordan, Sam Vinceint, and BJ Armstrong. Jordan tallied 3 PPs in the first 40 possessions of game 3 of the 1988 ECSF between New York and Chicago. Sam Vincient tallied 2. Jordan tallied 1 PP in the first 40 possessions of the 4th game of the 1991 ECF. Armstrong also tallied 1.
For a comparison to wings(over the first 40 defensive possessions for their respective teams), Oakley, Pippen, and Grant tallied 13, 8, and 6 PPs respectively in the aforementioned 88 game. In the aforementioned 91 game, Pippen and Grant had 14 PPs each. In the final game of the 94 ECSF between New York and Chicago, Oakley and Pippen tallied 15 PPs and Grant tallied 7. In the 86 Finals, Reid tallied 5.
Kidd , perhaps unsurprisingly, has much more perimeter usage than Olajuwon. On the other hand, he is dwarfed by pretty much all the bigs and wings with the exception of Reid whose usage was mostly a result of something going wrong for the Rockets. Presuming this sample is representative, I am doutful an outlier-y paint-presencer is explaining anything on it’s own. I would say he spends a bunch of possessions near where the action is happening and it’s possible their is an unusual effect that would be captured if i tracked tertiary usage, but even then, Kidd seems mostly a non-factor when called upon. He was a true backline defender once on a rotation and while he seemed to almost become one momentarily three other times, him just backing away repeatedly in a position to theoretically help makes me skeptical that over a larger sample he would be emulating wings there. I also think 2 of the PPs were borderline but given what I counted for Jordan in 88 I think it would be inconsistent not to see him as at least a co-primary in terms of paint usage.
I would hope this is not a surprise…
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=116226778#p116226778
but a low steal count didn’t predict low or ineffective usage with Kidd more frequently guarding or helping than anyone else on the team and doing so effectively. This all-or-nothing system might undersell Kidd since he spent a few possessions splitting usage on the perimeter with usage as tertiary paint deterrent. Roamers in general may be a bit disadvantaged with my approach and Kidd seems to qualify as one.
Still being a mini-pippen doesn’t really explain having much better signals than Pippen. Maybe something easily observable will emerge as the sample is (hopefully) added to/vetted to, but if the unusually strong and consistent correlation Kidd has with team defense is not merely noise, it may be more a matter of brain than brawn. Unfortunately I, and seemingly no one, has come up with a system to “track” defensive quarterbacking. I would also expect Kidd to benefit if “secondary” usage inputs were added.
I’ll finish by adding I think Kidd probably games one of his IAs, happening to be on the side avoided as opposed to being the reason the side is avoided. It would be interesting to see how more active guards compare.
Caveats:
Spoiler:
I think I’ll tackle 2007 Lebron next. Having a big, a wing, and a guard tracked using all these inputs seems appealing to me.