While we're here, I want to echo something Doc MJ said. It's plausible to me Hakeem Olajuwon is the greatest player in NBA history (depending on criteria). He also may very well be outside the top-10. Why the uncertainty?
First of all, he was a foreign Muslim dude playing in Houston. Not exactly Air Jordan in Chi-Town or Magic in the Wood. And I wonder, as we are wont to do, if much of his impact was muted early on because of this. There's only so much re-examining one can do here without firing up every Rockets game from the 80s and hand-tracking on/off and everything else.
Then again, some of the other evidence suggests Hakeem wasn't as valuable as the eye test would indicate. That Houston wasn't as lost without him and that distributing what he did across the team wasn't impossible. (Same can be said of Duncan.) We have such a tendency to de-emphasize teammates and coaching as years go on and only remember co-stars...of which, Hakeem basically had none.
I do know that in 1986, in his 2nd year, Olajuwon missed 14 games. Houston was -0.8 per contest in that time, which was
7.3 points per game worse than in the 68 games Hakeem played (+6.5 in those games), improving both on offense and defense.
I know that in 1991 -- a notable down year for Dream -- in the 26 games he missed Houston
outscored it's opponents by 2.4 ppg (16-10 record).
They were only slightly better with him (+4.0 overall) but while the defense improved about 3 points the offense regressed slightly.
I know that in 1992 -- another "bumpy" season -- in the 12 games he missed Houston was outscored by 10.8 points per. The DRtg was a dubious 117.2. With Dream, they were -0.2
(+10.6 difference).
I know that in 1995 when Hakeem missed 10 games,
Houston was -4.3 without Olajuwon and +3.0 with him. Again, the offense was better, but the defense fell apart in his absence. (The DRtg was 116.8 without Hakeem.)
Those are big numbers. For those who didn't follow RPOY, I ran a bunch on older players. For some comparisons (the first number is net difference in lineup, the second is what that brought the team point differential to, or roughly SRS):
Walton 1978 +13.3 to 10.0
Walton 1977 +12.6 to 8.4
LeBron 08+10 +12.5 to 4.1 (average of 08 and 10)
Magic 1988 +10.9 to 7.2
West 1971 +10.9 to 4.5
Hakeem 1992 +10.6 to -0.2Magic 1989 +10.4 to 7.8
King 1985 + 8.0 to -2.1
Shaq 00-01 +7.7 to 6.5
Kareem 1975 +7.7 to 1.7
Shaq 03 +7.6 to 3.7
Hakeem 1986 +7.3 to 6.5
Hakeem 1995 +7.3 to 3.0West 1968 +6.4 to 7.8
Nash 2009 +6.3 to 2.5
Kareem 1978 +5.8 to
Garnett 2009 +5.4 to 9.2
Shaq 02 +5.1 to 8.1
West 1969 +4.9 to 5.4
Shaq 1996 +4.4 to 7.1
Pippen 1994 +4.2 to 3.6
Shaq 1998 +3.5 to 8.7
Pippen 1998 +3.1 to 8.6
Shaq 1997 +2.9 to 5.4
Hakeem 1991 +1.7 to 4.0Shaq 04 +1.4 to 4.2
So in 1992, Hakeem's team was really not good, despite not many notable changes. Well, other than team turmoil and a coaching change, which is often brought back to Hakeem.
The next two bits of evidence offer equal confusion on Olajuwon, suggesting he could be GOAT-level or he could be a tier off the all-timers we're discussing.
Team Quality/RoleWhen Olajuwon shot well in the playoffs, his team actually fared worse. That suggests a team not reliant on his efficient scoring to win, often the mark of a good or balanced team. When he shot poorly, their record barely changed (.500).
Then again, when he shot the ball a lot (25+ FGAs), something he did frequently in the 90s, Houston fared very well (.727%). This suggests Iverson's Law of unipolar offense, where a player carrying massive offensive load is helping an otherwise flawed team, regardless of
his shooting percentage. Interesting to note, then, that in Hakeem's legendary 95 run (only +0.9 TS%) the Rockets exploded for 115.2 points/100. They didn't win that title with defense, they won it with offense around Hakeem.
So, how "good" is Hakeem in a vacuum if we simply surround him with good shooters? (Drexler played very well in that run, I don't want to understand his role as a slasher who could create his own.) Personally, I find that to be a difficult question to answer. History shows us two things:
(1) The best offenses are run by fairly ball-dominant guards/great creators for others
(2) The best post offenses are run from the high-post, again to create for others
It gets back to Wilt, where scoring 40 or 45 points in a game isn't really something
lifting a team much if the wealth can fairly easily be redistributed with him out of the game. There's some of that in theory with Olajuwon over his career -- he can't just build great offenses even with good shooting pieces like Smith, Maxwell and Floyd -- but in 1995 what he was doing seems fairly awesome (on top of the obvious eye-candy). Although Houston did shoot 39.1% from 3, so some luck might be involved there. Even so, reverting to RS averages only lops off about 1.5 pts of efficiency per 100.
Raising his Offensive GameRightfully, this is what Hakeem is known for, and stands out fairly well among peers. First of all, by game score, he had a bad playoff game in the BR available data (91-97) about as infrequently as Michael Jordan.
http://www.backpicks.com/2011/05/21/hig ... n-part-ii/ (Shaq, btw, almost never) He had good games second only to Jordan (although well behind -- volume scoring for the Hollinger win).
In 15 elimination games from 1991 to 1997 Olajuwon averaged 27/12/4 3 blocks 3 TOV on 57% TS. Outside the box score, I'd say he was one of the better elimination game players ever.
Now, he was in the Western Conference in the late 80s/early 90s, so the defensive quality he faced wasn't that good, at least by DRtg. It's almost 4 points worse than Shaq, for comparison in prime years. But then again, Olajuwon totally cranks his game up in the playoffs in his best seasons.
Of the other modern all-timers, he increases his scoring, shooting, ORtg and WS/48 the most of anyone come playoff time. His numbers in those years are 27.6 ppg/57.7 TS% (Shaq's, btw, are 26.6/56.7 TS% -- although if we normalize by DRtg Shaq has the better efficiency at the same volume).
So where does that leave us? Well, with a guy who could be Iversoning (in the good way) an offense and is an amazing defender. Or, it could leave us with a guy who's offensive contributions can be replaced to a certain degree. I have to say, I find Houston's 1995 ORtg in the 22 game sample fascinating, since Hakeem's efficiency was barely above average.
Personally, I settle in the middle on Olajuwon, with his career ups and downs. But I do question if that's wrong. My instincts tell me if he had a better situation (eg San Antonio, 1998!!!) that we might regard Dream as a serious, serious GOAT candidate. Yes, even challenging Jordan.
