RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #2 - 2012-13 LeBron James

[DraymondGold]

More Discussion on Shaq vs Kareem:

Wholistic stats:
Ai. Regular Season BPM: +7.3 2000 Shaq > +5.2 1977 Kareem [though 1972 Kareem is higher, and 1971 and 1973 are close].
Aii. Postseason BPM: +8.5 1977 Kareem > +7.0 2000 Shaq [1974 Kareem is also higher than peak Shaq, though 2000 and 2001 Shaq come next]
B. CORP: 29.4% 2000 Shaq > 25.8% 1977 Kareem.
Additional stats. Regular season: 2000 Shaq > 1977 Kareem in WOWY, and 2000 Shaq barely > 1977 Kareem in winshares; 1977 Kareem barely > 2000 Shaq in Basketball Reference's BPM.
Additional stats. For postseason: 1977 Kareem > Shaq in Basketball Reference's BPM and winshares. In a larger postseason sample, 77-79 Kareem barely > 00-02 Shaq in postseason Goldstein PIPM.
Takeaway: 00 Shaq probably wins regular season, 77 Kareem probably wins postseason.
*Since it's the stat of the moment, I'll also note that in Squared2020's 1985 Historical RAPM sample of 41 games (where the Lakers played just under their season average), Kareem nearly matched peak Shaq's RAPM a full 8 years after Kareem's peak! He had +8.45 (2nd in the league behind magic and ~6th all time among top 20ish players).

Concerns for Kareem: 1. postseason sample size in 1977. 2. How much did his regular season "coasting" enable his 1977 postseason success?

1. Kareem was well known for his postseason resiliency, so I wouldn't expect him to regress against the Sixers in the finals. We've seen him having 3 complete finals runs (1971, 1974, 1980) that were on extremely high level anyway. I know it's not the perfect way to judge season (maybe I am too inconsistent with my approach as well?), but I think that Kareem couldn't have done anything better with what he had in 1977, while Shaq was in inarguably better situation and I have seen moments when he didn't play up to his potential (although he was amazing overall in the playoffs).

2. Given how well both played, I find it hard not to pick a player I consider simply better. It's not MJ vs LBJ situation to me, because I legitimatelly can't decide who was better between these two. Shaq in comparison has a lot of exploitable weaknesses compared to Kareem (FT shooting, lack of mobility, limited range, poor defensive fundamentals) and even though he was dominant in spite of them, I don't think he was more dominant than Kareem.

For sure, it's definitely true that Kareem's resilient! And he's definitely had a number of great and deep postseason runs. But it still doesn't seem like he reached the same heights of 77 in any other year (which is fair... it's hard for anyone to reach those heights!). For example, in boxscore metrics, his 1977 BPM was 8.5, while his 1974 BPM was 7.9. He had 6.4 in 1979 and 6.8 in 1980. Similarly, with scoring, while he had 31.2 inflation-adjusted pts/75 on +13.7% rTS in 1977, he "only" had 27.0 pts/75 on +9.0% rTS in 1974 and 24.0 pts/75 on +12.5% rTS in 1979.

The argument against Kareem would be that his ridiculously efficient scoring in the 1977 postseason was a hot shooting streak (hot even for him), which wouldn't be sustainable in a larger postseason or if he didn't coast as much in the regular season.
The argument in favor of Kareem would be that he still got close to that historic level 3 years before and 2 years after, with 1977 being the only good postseason sample between 74 and 79. This suggests the 1977 postseason could be an accurate showing, which he would have replicated (or at least gotten closer) in 1975, 1976, and 1978 if he had a better team to support a deeper playoff run.

I do find your first point, that Kareem played almost perfectly given the poor situation (and that he showed a capability to play a ceiling raising role in non-peak years) fairly convincing. For your second point, I'm not quite there yet thinking Kareem is "simply better", though you're right that Shaq does have more exploitable weaknesses and is less well rounded.

Scoring: Kareem > Shaq.
I went into this thinking Kareem was a slightly better scorer, but your comment about just how wide the efficiency gap is really swayed me:

- Shaq's highest rTS% accomplished in the playoffs during his prime (1994-03) was +8.7 rTS%,
- Kareem surpassed that mark 6 times in 1970-83 period (1970, 1974, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1983).

Wow! For what it's worth, 4/5 of the top Postseason ScoreVal seasons go to Kareem over Shaq.

Defense: Rim Protection Kareem > Shaq?

1971-79 Kareem: 6.4 successful stops at the rim per game, 2.5 weak effort plays at the rim per game
1999/00 Shaq (excluding 2000/01 games): 3.7 successful stops at the rim per game, 2.8 weak effort plays at the rim per game

With roughly the same number of questionable plays, Kareem defended almost twice as many shots as Shaq. You may think that Shaq was more intimidating inside, but that's not true. When I also incluce high quality rotations that prevented from rim shots vs lack of them, Shaq also looks notably worse:

1971-79 Kareem: 3.1 high quality rotations vs 2.2 missed rotations
1999/00 Shaq: 1.4 high quality rotations vs 1.8 missed rotations

If we compare these numbers to all time great rim protector like Hakeem, you'll see how these two compare:

1993-94 Hakeem (35 games): 7.7 successful stops at the rim per game, 1.9 weak effort plays at the rim per game
1993-94 Hakeem (35 games): 3.6 high quality rotations vs 1.3 missed rotations

Thanks so much for tracking this! Super interesting stuff. I can definitely see Shaq making poor or slow rotations (thanks as well for the clips!). And good catch about Shaq's intimidation inside, that's exactly what my counter would have been

Question: since Kareem played in a different era without the three point line, did he face more drives toward/near the rim? That might not change the fact that Kareem had a better rate of quality rotations / stops, but it might shrink his volume advantage go successful stops. Also: Did Kareem make fewer stops or quality rotations in the second half of the 70s vs the first half?

Defense: Man Defense Shaq > Kareem?
I'll bring in colts18 since they provided some nice Man defense stats. colts18, do you have any thoughts on the above? Also, it looks like your stat about SRS when Shaq and Kobe are both together is wrong... 9.71 SRS wouldn't be the 4th best SRS in 3 pt era behind 92, 96, 97 Bulls, since multiple Warriors teams have eclipsed that value. Perhaps the quote is old?

Shaq’s 2000 season was his best defensive performance ever. The Lakers finished #1 in Defensive Rating (-5.9 relative to league average according to B-R), 1st in FG% allowed, 3P% allowed. Shaq led the league in Defensive Win Shares. Shaq’s man defense was a huge part of that. According to Hoopsstats.com, the Lakers in 2000 allowed 14.0 PPG, 40.7 FG% to opposing center. They had the best PPG against Centers, FG% against centers, and finished with the 2nd fewest FTA/game allowed to Centers.

Anyway, here were some of the lines that stood out to me from colts' defense of Shaq's defense:

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/opponentstats/00/10/pts/1-1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Top TS% defense:
Lakers: .455 TS% (.453 in the games Shaq played)
Spurs: .486 TS%
Heat: .490 TS%
The League average center was .526 TS% so the Lakers were -7.1 TS% relative to League average and they beat the Robinson/Duncan Spurs by 3.1 TS% for 1st place. An impressive feat.
...
Here is what Shaq did vs. the top 5 non-Shaq scorers at Center that year: ...
Average dropoff is -2.2 PPG, -10.3 FG%, -12.0 TS%. That is a significant dropoff.

Playoffs (regular season averages in parenthesis): ...
Average dropoff: 2.2 PPG, -9.3 FG%, -10.8 TS%

Any thoughts? Though I would have thought rim protection is more valuable (and it still might be enough to take Kareem over Shaq defensively), could Shaq's make up some of the defensive gap with man defense?

Creation: Shaq > Kareem, but by how much?

-Creation and other offensive skills: I think here's where we might disagree? At least as far as I can tell (though I'm not film expert on Kareem -- feel free to let me know if I'm wrong here!), I see Shaq's overall offensive creation as above Kareem's. 2000 Shaq has a higher box creation and passer rating than 1977 Kareem in the regular season, and although Kareem's box creation overcomes Shaq's in the playoffs, his passer rating stays behind. While Kareem is certainly underrated as far as gravity goes, Shaq is usually considered the gold standard for big man rim gravity, drawing the double team and kicking back out to three pointers. I see this as a major driver of Shaq's offensive value, and something he has over Kareem (at least in my eye). Perhaps Shaq's benefited from his era, gaining more value than Kareem with his rim gravity and kickout passes simply because he was passing to 3 point shooters?

Well, for once we have to remember that players and teams in the 2000s post considerably higher box creation numbers due to the nature of game. I don't like comparing creation numbers across 30 years, because someone like Shaq had much more opportunities to create something with improved spacing and slower game.

If you compare both BC and PR from team perspective in 1977 and 2000, you'll see that the difference is quite drastic - more so than the difference between Kareem and Shaq. The fact that Kareem is somehow close to Shaq actually proves me with the idea that he's a better passer and playmaker than Shaq.

About Shaq's gravity - this one is a massive game changer, but I wonder how much different it was compared to Kareem. I mean, this is how Kareem was guarded in 1977 playoffs:

Spoiler:

This are not highly selected screens - I picked them from one quarter of game 3 vs Warriors. Kareem absorbed ridiculous amount of defensive attention and he had a harder time beating it without the three point line.

Great points! We definitely have to account for era, and Kareem might be the better passer if we use the "time machine" argument. I also appreciate the footage of Kareem's gravity. Still, I wonder whether Shaq's ability to warp the defense was more valuable in his era, given the increased space and the threat of 3 point shooters. I tend to think so: even if Kareem was attracting as much double teams or defensive rotations, the defense didn't have to rotate as far, didn't have to recover as far, and the offense ended up with a less efficient shot (3 > 2).

I guess here, we end up with the time machine argument. How much do we want to decide the greatest peak based on "goodness" in an era-independent way vs "value" in an era-dependent context.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Especially for those who emphasize two-way bigs at this stage: where does 2021 Giannis fit in for you? Is he that far off from the players mentioned thus far (Kareem, Wilt, Shaq, Russell)?

I feel like he would be tier down from them. I see him as someone who is better but still maybe closer to the David Robinson, Dirk, and Moses Malone (so maybe in between them)?

[ceoofkobefans]

Just going to be lazy and copy paste my thoughts for LeBron and Shaq

2. 2013 LeBron James

I believe there’s a clear top 2. I think LeBron (even in 2013) clears Shaq on O due to being a significantly better playmaker and still being a better scorer. Being a 78% Rim shooter and a 40% 3pt shooter (even if he’s being left open a decent bit of the time to prevent him from finishing) is just really hard to beat as a scorer from a rim oriented player which is why I think he’s a better scorer. Defensively I also like LeBron over Shaq. Shaq even in 00 with the added motor was still kind of a lazy defender and still didn’t like coming out of the paint on D. There wasn’t a 3 in the paint on D in 2000 so he was allowed to paint camp more and even tho he was an elite rim protector his lack of much else on D really holds him back.

3. 2000 Shaquille O’Neal

Top 6 scoring peak to me. Probably a top 10 playmaking big peak (haven’t made a list but I’d imagine having the goat gravity and off ball movement from a big is enough to get him there) being extremely portable and a strong defender makes him hard to stop. He’s shooting almost 80% at the rim (if not in the 80s) in a league where the average rim FG% isn’t even in the 60s while constantly being doubled and tripled. Just an insane offensive peak


4. 1994 Hakeem Olajuwon

Although this arguably isn’t his peak on O or D I think it’s his best combination of scoring playmaking defense and portability. Hakeem’s RS metrics don’t look the best but he’s one of the biggest PO risers ever and his multi year PO metrics (I prefer multi year over single year metrics in the PO) look significantly better and they make a top 4 placement look much more reasonable. In 1994 he was a much more willing passer and didn’t miss very many basic reads like he did in the previous years (and made the occasional advanced read as well) and he was a great scorer as always and while he regressed as a defender he was still very clearly and all time defender and I don’t know how many defensive seasons there are better than 94 Hakeem outside of his own and BR’s. He was also a better Off ball player and more willing off the ball in 1994. I would like to watch a little bit more film to confirm if I’m overrating him but I think that 4 is a very fair sport for his peak

[NO-KG-AI]

Based on that i tempatively think he is the highest "one way" (players great in one end, neutral ish in tge other) although i am not too knowledgeable on his supporting casts defensive talent

Do you guys think there is an aegument that the defensive gap between russel and wilt/hakeem/duncan is biggee than the offensive gap?

I think it is higher no doubt. The gap is enormous. The only real question is would it transfer as well to other versions of the league with extremely different rulesets and whether or not that matters to you when ranking or voting on these kinds of things.

[Jaivl]

Somethingh i wanna start asking is how gap do we think the gap between bill russel defense and hakeem or wilt or duncan defense is?

Not only Russell, I think Thurmond is easily clear of them too. Probably the same with fully engaged Wilt.

[70sFan]

More Discussion on Shaq vs Kareem:

The more the better!

Concerns for Kareem: 1. postseason sample size in 1977. 2. How much did his regular season "coasting" enable his 1977 postseason success?

For sure, it's definitely true that Kareem's resilient! And he's definitely had a number of great and deep postseason runs. But it still doesn't seem like he reached the same heights of 77 in any other year (which is fair... it's hard for anyone to reach those heights!). For example, in boxscore metrics, his 1977 BPM was 8.5, while his 1974 BPM was 7.9. He had 6.4 in 1979 and 6.8 in 1980. Similarly, with scoring, while he had 31.2 inflation-adjusted pts/75 on +13.7% rTS in 1977, he "only" had 27.0 pts/75 on +9.0% rTS in 1974 and 24.0 pts/75 on +12.5% rTS in 1979.

Sure, I didn't want to imply that it wasn't Kareem's most productive postseason run, it's certainly is. That said, if we actually compare some of his best postseason runs it's not like we're talking about 2003 Tmac situation here:

1970: 6.2 BPM, 28.2 pts/75 on +10.1 rTS%
1971: 6.2 BPM, 24.2 pts/75 on +6.3 rTS%
1974: 7.9 BPM, 27.0 pts/75 on +9.0 rTS%
1977: 8.5 BPM, 31.2 pts/75 on +13.7 rTS%
1979: 6.4 BPM, 24.0 pts/75 on +13.5 rTS%
1980: 6.9 BPM, 29.6 pts/75 on +9.9 rTS%
1983: 5.3 BPM, 26.1 pts/75 on +8.3 rTS%

It's true that Kareem reached his absolute peak in 1977 playoffs, but I think missed postseasons in 1975 and 1976 makes it look more outlier than it actually was, very unfortunately. As you see, Kareem had likely his 2nd best run in 1974 and I don't see any reason why he wouldn't reach similar heights between 1974 and 1977.

I understand your reservations though!

The argument against Kareem would be that his ridiculously efficient scoring in the 1977 postseason was a hot shooting streak (hot even for him), which wouldn't be sustainable in a larger postseason or if he didn't coast as much in the regular season.
The argument in favor of Kareem would be that he still got close to that historic level 3 years before and 2 years after, with 1977 being the only good postseason sample between 74 and 79. This suggests the 1977 postseason could be an accurate showing, which he would have replicated (or at least gotten closer) in 1975, 1976, and 1978 if he had a better team to support a deeper playoff run.

Exactly, that's my way of thinking. Of course, it's not perfect way to evaluate player's quality, but that's how I see.

I do find your first point, that Kareem played almost perfectly given the poor situation (and that he showed a capability to play a ceiling raising role in non-peak years) fairly convincing.

I'm glad to hear that, I think that's what makes the greatest players truly the greatest. We've seen this with LeBron and Jordan, but most people don't realize that Kareem also did that. I'm not sure if we can really critic Shaq for not playing in bad situation, but I have a lot of questions about his floor raising ability given his skillset. I don't doubt about his ceilling raising ability, but he's not clearly more impressive in that aspect than Kareem.

For your second point, I'm not quite there yet thinking Kareem is "simply better", though you're right that Shaq does have more exploitable weaknesses and is less well rounded.

Yeah, maybe I use too much of definitive language but this is how I see it. I have a lot more concerns with Hakeem/Duncan vs Shaq for example, because I see how many advantages O'Neal has over them (and vice versa). With Kareem though, I think most of Shaq's advantages aren't fundamental for this comparison.

Scoring: Kareem > Shaq.
I went into this thinking Kareem was a slightly better scorer, but your comment about just how wide the efficiency gap is really swayed me:

- Shaq's highest rTS% accomplished in the playoffs during his prime (1994-03) was +8.7 rTS%,
- Kareem surpassed that mark 6 times in 1970-83 period (1970, 1974, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1983).

Wow! For what it's worth, 4/5 of the top Postseason ScoreVal seasons go to Kareem over Shaq.

It's truly astonishing, because Shaq himself is at worst top 10 scorer ever with crazy resiliency. Kareem was unbelievable though.

Defense: Rim Protection Kareem > Shaq?
Thanks so much for tracking this! Super interesting stuff. I can definitely see Shaq making poor or slow rotations (thanks as well for the clips!). And good catch about Shaq's intimidation inside, that's exactly what my counter would have been

Yeah, intimidation part is the main reason why I still view Shaq as positive defender, despite all these flaws. In the end, he was just a massive body with 7'7 wingspan, you can't teach that. When he's focused, his ability to protect the paint was very strong because he was also crazy athletic. Kareem wasn't too shabby in that front either - he was even taller than Shaq and extremely athletic himself.

Question: since Kareem played in a different era without the three point line, did he face more drives toward/near the rim? That might not change the fact that Kareem had a better rate of quality rotations / stops, but it might shrink his volume advantage go successful stops.

I didn't track all the shots taken at the rim for the 1970s games, so this goes strictly from my eye-test. I think the difference between driving opportunities is noticeable, but it's mostly related to transition game. In halfcourt, it wasn't easy to attack the paint without the three point line and I don't think Kareem has a huge advantage here compared to the 1990s. Kareem has one huge advantage over Shaq and that's lack of illegal defense - this one is definitely a bit advantage for him.

That's why I included Hakeem in this comparison, to show that you could reach comparable numbers to Kareem in the 1990s.

Also: Did Kareem make fewer stops or quality rotations in the second half of the 70s vs the first half?

Yes, he wasn't as active on defense as he was in Milwaukee. The difference between 1977 and say 1972 was mostly related to how Kareem approached defense though - in 1977, he was a bit smarter with his rotations but didn't have the same recovery time - which was INSANE when he was young:

Watch on YouTube

The biggest difference in his defensive effectiveness is visible after 1978 though. When you watch 1977/78 games, Kareem looks a little slower and less active, but it wasn't anything huge. Then when you jump into 1978/79 Lakers games, the difference is very visible. That's the main reason why I don't think 1979-81 Kareem was on his peak level anymore - even though he was as good as ever offensively.

Defense: Man Defense Shaq > Kareem?
I'll bring in colts18 since they provided some nice Man defense stats. colts18, do you have any thoughts on the above? Also, it looks like your stat about SRS when Shaq and Kobe are both together is wrong... 9.71 SRS wouldn't be the 4th best SRS in 3 pt era behind 92, 96, 97 Bulls, since multiple Warriors teams have eclipsed that value. Perhaps the quote is old?

Shaq’s 2000 season was his best defensive performance ever. The Lakers finished #1 in Defensive Rating (-5.9 relative to league average according to B-R), 1st in FG% allowed, 3P% allowed. Shaq led the league in Defensive Win Shares. Shaq’s man defense was a huge part of that. According to Hoopsstats.com, the Lakers in 2000 allowed 14.0 PPG, 40.7 FG% to opposing center. They had the best PPG against Centers, FG% against centers, and finished with the 2nd fewest FTA/game allowed to Centers.

Anyway, here were some of the lines that stood out to me from colts' defense of Shaq's defense:

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/opponentstats/00/10/pts/1-1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Top TS% defense:
Lakers: .455 TS% (.453 in the games Shaq played)
Spurs: .486 TS%
Heat: .490 TS%
The League average center was .526 TS% so the Lakers were -7.1 TS% relative to League average and they beat the Robinson/Duncan Spurs by 3.1 TS% for 1st place. An impressive feat.
...
Here is what Shaq did vs. the top 5 non-Shaq scorers at Center that year: ...
Average dropoff is -2.2 PPG, -10.3 FG%, -12.0 TS%. That is a significant dropoff.

Playoffs (regular season averages in parenthesis): ...
Average dropoff: 2.2 PPG, -9.3 FG%, -10.8 TS%

Any thoughts? Though I would have thought rim protection is more valuable (and it still might be enough to take Kareem over Shaq defensively), could Shaq's make up some of the defensive gap with man defense?

I haven't made such calculations for Kareem (or any other center) yet, but I have that in plans. Just from watching both, I think that this is where Shaq has the advantage and it's important to keep that in mind. Shaq could be a lazy man defender, but when he's locked in he could impact the way opponents play. Most Shaq matchup opponents didn't score a lot of points inside and that's something that could be a huge factor. Kareem himself was a solidman defender, but he wasn't as intimidating.

Great points! We definitely have to account for era, and Kareem might be the better passer if we use the "time machine" argument. I also appreciate the footage of Kareem's gravity. Still, I wonder whether Shaq's ability to warp the defense was more valuable in his era, given the increased space and the threat of 3 point shooters. I tend to think so: even if Kareem was attracting as much double teams or defensive rotations, the defense didn't have to rotate as far, didn't have to recover as far, and the offense ended up with a less efficient shot (3 > 2).

I guess here, we end up with the time machine argument. How much do we want to decide the greatest peak based on "goodness" in an era-independent way vs "value" in an era-dependent context.

Yeah, that's something that is always hard to take into account. It doesn't make any sense to downgrade Kareem for the fact his teammates couldn't take threes, but at the same time we shouldn't just ignore the impact Shaq had because of that. I don't have a smart answer to this question.

[homecourtloss]

Concerns for Kareem: 1. postseason sample size in 1977. 2. How much did his regular season "coasting" enable his 1977 postseason success?


The argument against Kareem would be that his ridiculously efficient scoring in the 1977 postseason was a hot shooting streak (hot even for him), which wouldn't be sustainable in a larger postseason or if he didn't coast as much in the regular season.


Question: since Kareem played in a different era without the three point line, did he face more drives toward/near the rim? That might not change the fact that Kareem had a better rate of quality rotations / stops, but it might shrink his volume advantage go successful stops. Also: Did Kareem make fewer stops or quality rotations in the second half of the 70s vs the first half?

First of all, I wanted to mention that I appreciate your metrics based approach to player evaluation and the discussions and insights you bring to this board.

Secondly, this is the second time I’ve seen you refer to player “coasting” in the regular season enabling a playoff run. Do you have some objective evidence for saying Kareem coasted in 1977 or LeBron in 2016 (other time you mentioned it)? How is coasting measured? How does coasting help with limited playoff sample sizes? How do we know “coasting” helped the playoff run?

I don’t see the argument for either “coasting.” LeBron was the Cavs’ defensive anchor in 2016 on a team that had few plus defenders; everyone knows about his post season defense but his regular season defense was phenomenal as well. How does a player “coast” and manage to do that?

As for Kareem, looking at his roster, it took pretty much all of Kareem to squeeze out 53 wins playing a gods chunk of close games.

Last part you mentioned was about the drives, which is a good question. We’ve seen through tracking data a substantial increase in drives per game/possession as the 3pt rate has increased. Obviously it wasn’t as high when Shaq was playing, so I’m not sure if an increase in drives then was enough to outweigh play inside the paint in a non 3 point environment.

[Djoker]

Just to be clear I think it's very tough to call Kareem's playoff scoring in 1977 a total outlier because he had a similarly impressive 8.0 rTS, +10.6 rTS, +8.0 rTS in 1974, 1979 and 1980. And there is plenty of evidence that he was objectively better in 1977, a perfect combination of greater strength and still prime motor. Even if you want to call peak Kareem a 27 pts/75 on +10 rTS player that's still insane and makes him the 2nd best scorer of all time after MJ.

[falcolombardi]

Concerns for Kareem: 1. postseason sample size in 1977. 2. How much did his regular season "coasting" enable his 1977 postseason success?


The argument against Kareem would be that his ridiculously efficient scoring in the 1977 postseason was a hot shooting streak (hot even for him), which wouldn't be sustainable in a larger postseason or if he didn't coast as much in the regular season.


Question: since Kareem played in a different era without the three point line, did he face more drives toward/near the rim? That might not change the fact that Kareem had a better rate of quality rotations / stops, but it might shrink his volume advantage go successful stops. Also: Did Kareem make fewer stops or quality rotations in the second half of the 70s vs the first half?

First of all, I wanted to mention that I appreciate your metrics based approach to player evaluation and the discussions and insights you bring to this board.

Secondly, this is the second time I’ve seen you refer to player “coasting” in the regular season enabling a playoff run. Do you have some objective evidence for saying Kareem coasted in 1977 or LeBron in 2016 (other time you mentioned it)? How is coasting measured? How does coasting help with limited playoff sample sizes? How do we know “coasting” helped the playoff run?

I don’t see the argument for either “coasting.” LeBron was the Cavs’ defensive anchor in 2016 on a team that had few plus defenders; everyone knows about his post season defense but his regular season defense was phenomenal as well. How does a player “coast” and manage to do that?

As for Kareem, looking at his roster, it took pretty much all of Kareem to squeeze out 53 wins playing a gods chunk of close games.

Last part you mentioned was about the drives, which is a good question. We’ve seen through tracking data a substantial increase in drives per game/possession as the 3pt rate has increased. Obviously it wasn’t as high when Shaq was playing, so I’m not sure if an increase in drives then was enough to outweigh play inside the paint in a non 3 point environment.

I dont even see the point in docking points for coasting even if it really was an advantage coming playoffs time

I mean, nobody gives lebron a pass for his issues against 2013 spurs because he led miami to a 27 win streak in reg season

A player who coasts in reg season is already punished by doing so in how his regular season gets evaluated lower than it could have

And for all the talk about regular season being ignored, notice how most consensus peaks for players and the highest valued seasons ever are those where the regular season is as great as the playoffs

[CharityStripe34]

Especially for those who emphasize two-way bigs at this stage: where does 2021 Giannis fit in for you? Is he that far off from the players mentioned thus far (Kareem, Wilt, Shaq, Russell)?

His 2019-2022 (4 seasons) of 28-12-6 with superlative defense and historic levels of efficiency (averaging around 30-31PER) is shaping up to be an incredible peak. Within these last 4-5 years his play from 2020 until 2021 when they won the title has been akin to Hakeem in 93-95, Shaq 00-01 and Kareem in 71-72. IMO.

[DraymondGold]

Concerns for Kareem: 1. postseason sample size in 1977. 2. How much did his regular season "coasting" enable his 1977 postseason success?


The argument against Kareem would be that his ridiculously efficient scoring in the 1977 postseason was a hot shooting streak (hot even for him), which wouldn't be sustainable in a larger postseason or if he didn't coast as much in the regular season.


Question: since Kareem played in a different era without the three point line, did he face more drives toward/near the rim? That might not change the fact that Kareem had a better rate of quality rotations / stops, but it might shrink his volume advantage go successful stops. Also: Did Kareem make fewer stops or quality rotations in the second half of the 70s vs the first half?

First of all, I wanted to mention that I appreciate your metrics based approach to player evaluation and the discussions and insights you bring to this board.

Thanks so much! I'm glad to hear

Secondly, this is the second time I’ve seen you refer to player “coasting” in the regular season enabling a playoff run. Do you have some objective evidence for saying Kareem coasted in 1977 or LeBron in 2016 (other time you mentioned it)? How is coasting measured? How does coasting help with limited playoff sample sizes? How do we know “coasting” helped the playoff run?

I don’t see the argument for either “coasting.” LeBron was the Cavs’ defensive anchor in 2016 on a team that had few plus defenders; everyone knows about his post season defense but his regular season defense was phenomenal as well. How does a player “coast” and manage to do that?

What do I mean by "coasting"? There's a pattern some all-time players show as they get older. They have their best regular seasons (statistically, defensively, in terms of defense, etc.) when they're younger. When they get older, they get slightly worse by these metrics in the regular season. Yet in the playoffs, they show greater improvements vs their regular season selves, and sometimes even improve over their younger playoff selves. There's evidence that this happened with older Kareem, older LeBron, older Jordan (though I don't think his 2nd threepeat playoff improvements are enough to take 98 Jordan over 91), Shaq (e.g. 2001), Kawhi, Curry (e.g. 2022), etc.

What causes this? There's a few possiblilities. For example, 1. Players have a higher motor when they're younger. This motor declines as they get older. This decline most often shows up in worse defensive performances (or less consistent defensive effort) relative to their younger selves, at least in the regular season. 2. Certainly as players get older, they gain experience and versatility which allows them to improve more. 3. Players may even intentionally decide not to go 100% in the regular season as they get older, to decrease injury risk, limit wear and tear, improve longevity, and save up their motor to reach that higher gear in the playoffs.

Evidence in support of coasting:
Both Kareem and LeBron had media articles and stories about their declining defensive effort in the regular season as they got older. There's also statistical evidence...
Ai. 2016 LeBron (regular season -> playoffs): +1.6 in AuPM, +3.5 in Backpicks BPM, improvements in Basketball Reference's BPM, improvements in WS/48, and I believe improved in RAPM/PIPM. These are noticeable improvements in almost all metrics. 2016 LeBron's regular season was below his earlier regular season performances in most of these metrics (compared to 2009, 2012, 2013), but his 2016 playoffs >> 2016 regular season, and his 2016 playoffs may be > 2009/2012/2013 playoffs.
Aii. 2016 Cavs (regular season -> playoffs): +6.93 offensive rating improvement, 1.92 defensive rating improvement, and +5.84 SRS improvement (5th all time) . So the improvements from the regular season to the playoffs by LeBron (and possibly others) does make a difference in team performance. (source: Sansterre's Top 100 Teams)
B. 1977 Kareem (regular season -> playoffs): significantly improved in Backpicks BPM, Basketball Reference's BPM, WS/48, etc. Again, 1977 Kareem's regular season was below some of his earlier regular seasons in these metrics, but his 1977 playoffs is clearly his best.

Why does this matter? Well, it becomes a question of each player's value, and what we value in our GOAT peaks. If 2016 LeBron and 1977 Kareem performed at their playoff level throughout the entire regular season (and if the metics showed this), I think we'd be almost universally taking those seasons as their peaks... and those peaks would have greater arguments against their peers. But they didn't... so instead we're debating 2016 vs 2009/2012/2013, and we're debating 1977 vs 1974/1971 (and vs 2000 Shaq).

That doesn't mean 2016 LeBron or 1977 Kareem had bad regular seasons. Like you say, Kareem still squeezed out 53 wins from a sub-optimal roster and 2016 LeBron was still his team's best defensive player. But they were worse relative to the heights they reached in the same playoffs, and in earlier regular seasons. Worse regular season performances do decrease value (even if you really don't value the regular season, a worse regular season performance -> likely a lower seed -> harder playoff route -> thus lower championship odds).
So, Question 1 is: how much worse were these players in the regular season, and how much value does this take away from them?
Question 2 is: does this regular season coasting enable their playoff improvements, and does that matter? There's an argument that much of the improvement comes from their improved experience. But you could also argue that, as these players get older and their motor wanes, they actually need to coast a bit to enable these higher-motor, higher-value, lofty playoff performances. If this is the case, then if these players were to try more in the regular season to limit their regular season disadvantage (e.g. if Lebron were to limit his 2016 regular season disadvantage vs 2009 or 2013, or if 77 Kareem were to limit his disadvantage vs 1974/1971 Kareem or 2000 Shaq), then they'd be losing the energy/motor to perform well in the playoffs and thus limit the advantage they have in the post season.

[DraymondGold]

I imagine LeBron will likely be going this round, but I wanted to bring up a comparison of 2017 Curry and 2000 Shaq for the bottom of people's ballots. I think Curry might have a legitimate top 5 peak case over Shaq.

With that said, here's The Statistical Case for 2017 Curry over 2000 Shaq:
Plus minus data
Ai. AuPM: 2017 Curry > 2000 Shaq (and healthy 2016 Curry (2nd all time) >> 2000 Shaq )
Aii. Postseason AuPM: 2017 Curry (2nd all time) >> 2000 Shaq (4th all time)
Bi. Goldstein RAPM: 2000 Shaq (5th all time) > 2017 Curry
Bii. Goldstein Playoff PIPM (3 years for sample size): 2017 Curry (8th all time) > 2000 Shaq
Additional plus minus stats: C. on/off: 2017 Curry > 2000 Shaq
Additional plus minus stats: D. WOWY: 2000 Shaq > 2017 Curry
Additional plus minus stats: E. ESPN’s RPM: 2017 Curry (7th all time) > 2000 Shaq (and healthy 2016 Curry is 2nd all time)
Additional plus minus stats: F. Backpicks’ CORP evaluation: 2000 Shaq (2nd all time) > 2017 Curry (though healthy 2016 Steph Curry is 4th all time)


Box score-based data
Gi. Backpicks BPM: 2000 Shaq > 2017 Curry (but healthy 2016 Curry (2nd all time) > 2000 Shaq)
Gii. Postseason Backpicks BPM: 2017 Curry (4th all time) >> 2000 Shaq
Hi. BR’s BPM: 2000 Shaq > 2017 Curry (but healthy 2016 Curry (4th all time) > 2000 Shaq)
Hii. BR’s Postseason BPM: 2017 Curve > 2000 Shaq
Additional box score stats: Ii. WS/48: 2000 Shaq > 2017 Curry (but healthy 2016 Curry (5th all time) > 2000 Shaq)
Additional box score stats: Iii. Postseason WS/48: 2017 Curry > Shaq

In short, 2017 Curry beats 2000 Shaq in 8/14 of these total stats and in 5/5 of the playoff-specific stats. If we add healthy 2016 Curry to the mix, Curry beats Shaq in 11/14 stats. Adding 2001 Shaq to the mix does not help Shaq. The only 3 stats where Shaq beats Curry are Goldstein's regular season RAPM (but not PIPM), WOWY (which is a particularly noisy stat in smaller samples), CORP (which is Ben Taylor's personal evaluation).

Put simply, I’m not sure the data supports having peak Shaq clearly over peak Curry. However, there are possible contextual factors worth considering:
1. Scalability. If you value ceiling raising over floor raising, this supports 2017 Curry > 2000 Shaq.
2. Resilience. Shaq may have the advantage here over the course of his prime, but the data universally shows 2017 Curry as the better playoff performer over 2000 Shaq. Further studies have shown Curry does not play statistically worse in the playoffs when he’s healthy (which he is in 2017). Again, according to the data: Playoff 2017 Curry > Playoff 2000 Shaq. (though for overall primes, Shaq > Curry in resilience largely due to health). Speaking of health...
3. Health. Both Shaq and Curry are injury risks. Although Shaq is healthier in his prime, injuries are not a factor in their peak years.
4. Defense. Shaq is the better defender in a vacuum, but I’m not sure he’s that much better relative to position, and the data suggests the defensive advantage is not enough to put peak Shaq over peak Curry.
5. Fit. Both had favorable team circumstances, though in my estimation 2017 Curry had a more favorable fit than 2000 Shaq. Here's a point for Shaq!
6. Time machine. Hard to know for sure. People say Curry would suffer if forced to shoot less 3s in the past; on the other hand, if he found a coach that did let him shoot 3s in volume, his relative offensive advantage would be even greater. People say Shaq would be more valuable offensively playing bully-ball against smaller lineups today; on the other hand, higher pace (with Shaq’s poorer conditioning), stricter big man offensive fouling calls, and a massive increase in the importance of perimeter and pick and roll defense would decrease Shaq’s value.

I would certainly still consider arguments for Shaq. Perhaps there are statistics that I'm missing, or perhaps there's a 7th contextual factor that I'm missing, or perhaps one of the 6 contextual factors I discussed is compelling enough to help Shaq overcome the statistical advantage.... But I'm not sure that's true. Ultimately, I won't have 2017 Curry first on my ballot for the 2nd greatest peak of all time, but I think he has a serious case for top 5 over some of the other GOAT big men (hopefully I'll have the time to statistically compare Curry vs other big men later ). I'd love to hear people's thoughts!

[falcolombardi]

Some questions to ponder at this stage

Magic vs curry for "one way" offensive peaks: neither 87 magic nor 17 curry (temptative choices for both peaks) are particularly good on defense, both led a all time offense but magic arguably did it with less overall talent

For people bringing curry in their top 3 or top 5? What makes him better than magic?

And perhaps more hot take.....is he necesarilly better than peak nash? Or at least better enough by such a gap that would justify a big gap vetween both? Nash actually had the better offensive results by a small but clear margin

Is the defebsive gap between peak nash and 17 curry that big?

[Dutchball97]

Some questions to ponder at this stage

Magic vs curry for "one way" offensive peaks: neither 87 magic nor 17 curry (temptative choices for both peaks) are particularly good on defense, both led a all time offense but magic arguably did it with less overall talent

For people bringing curry in their top 3 or top 5? What makes him better than magic?

And perhaps more hot take.....is he necesarilly better than peak nash? Nash also led a historical offense (multiple times) with no more offensive talent (arguably less) although his defense may be worse than curry?

I used to be pretty low on Curry's 2017 regular season but it's actually his best season by quite a margin by PI RAPM so combined with a very strong play-off run it's definitely a competitive peak. I think 87 Magic has slight edges in both the regular season and the play-offs but I'll probably have them really close.

[DraymondGold]

Some questions to ponder at this stage

Magic vs curry for "one way" offensive peaks: neither 87 magic nor 17 curry (temptative choices for both peaks) are particularly good on defense, both led a all time offense but magic arguably did it with less overall talent

For people bringing curry in their top 3 or top 5? What makes him better than magic?

And perhaps more hot take.....is he necesarilly better than peak nash? Nash also led a historical offense (multiple times) with no more offensive talent (arguably less) although his defense may be worse than curry?

I used to be pretty low on Curry's 2017 regular season but it's actually his best season by quite a margin by PI RAPM so combined with a very strong play-off run it's definitely a competitive peak. I think 87 Magic has slight edges in both the regular season and the play-offs but I'll probably have them really close.

Great question falcolombardi! And I'm glad you brought up Magic and Nash. Like you say, they're definitely up there in the all-time "one way" peaks (along with Russell lol). I personally have Curry and Magic as a small positive on defense, Russell as a relatively small positive on offense, and Nash as a negative on defense. But since most of their value comes on one side of the court, it's a natural comparison.

Unfortunately we have far fewer statistics going back to Magic (it’ll be great to see Squared2020’s stats keep getting updated though!). Here are the stats we do have:

A statistical comparison of 2017 Curry and 1987 Magic
Plus-minus based stats:
A. AuPM (no data available for magic. 2016 Curry 2nd all time).
Bi. Goldstein RAPM / Historical Square2020 RAPM: 1985 Magic (4th all time) > 2017 Steph Curry (7th all time) (But only a 41 game sample for Magic.)
Bii. Goldstein Playoff PIPM (3 years for sample size): 2017 Curry (8th all time) > 1987 Magic
Additional plus minus stats: C. on/off: (no data available for magic. Can't find an all time list to rank Curry! )
Additional plus minus stats: D. WOWY: 2016/2017 Curry > 1987 Magic (not sure about full prime WOWY. I brought in 16 Curry because Ben hasn't finished publishing Curry's mid/post-2017 WOWY numbers yet).
Additional plus minus stats: E. ESPN’s RPM: (no data available for magic. 2016 Curry 2nd all time)
Additional plus minus stats: F. Backpicks’ CORP evaluation: 2017 Curry > 1987 Magic (and healthy 2016 Steph Curry is 4th all time)

Box score-based data
Gi. Backpicks BPM: 1987 Magic > 2017 Curry (but healthy 2016 Curry (2nd all time) > 1985 Magic)
Gii. Postseason Backpicks BPM: 2017 Curry (4th all time) > 1987 Magic
Hi. BR’s BPM: 1987 Magic > 2017 Curry (but healthy 2016 Curry (4th all time) > 1987 Magic)
Hii. BR’s Postseason BPM: 2017 Curve > 1987 Magic
Additional box score stats: Ii. WS/48: 1987 Magic > 2017 Curry (but healthy 2016 Curry (5th all time) > 1987 Magic)
Additional box score stats: Iii. Postseason WS/48: 2017 Curry > 1987 Magic

So 2017 Curry beats 1987 Magic in 6/10 of these total stats, and in 4/4 of the playoff-only stats. If we add 2016 Curry and either 86 Magic or 88 Magic (whichever helps Magic more), Curry wins in 7/10 Stats. Who knows what the missing data would say, and I also haven't considered my 6 contextual factors yet. Here's how I lean for the contextual factors right now: 1. Scalability (I lean Curry), 2. Resilience (close if healthy), 3. Health (Magic), 4. Defensive weighting (close), 5. Team Fit (possibly Curry benefited more from fit?), 6. Time machine (close). It's clearly a close battle, but my initial interpretation of the data says Curry comes out on top. Thoughts?

...

As for Nash, I'd have to check one more time to make sure I didn't miss one.... but from memory, peak Curry beats Nash in every single one of these stats except WOWY... Like you say though, I'm not sure how much of this comes from defense. It's possible Nash is the better offensive player, but his negative defense drags him down.

[NoxusApprentice]

Can consider this a shorter test ballot; my actual interest in contributing to this project is more for later ballots rather than the inevitable [1991 Jordan #1, ??? Lebron #2] format of these early selections, so if I need to undergo some grace period before my ballots are counted, that suits me fine.

1(a). 2015-16 Lebron James
1(b). 2016-17 Lebron James
I think UnibroDavis gave what should be pretty close to the definitive case for post-Miami Lebron, although I disagree with the elevation of 2018. Even if we wholly commit to playoffs over regular season, and although I buy the playoff preparedness arguments for these iterations of Lebron (it is why my vote is what it is), I do not really see the case for 2018 specifically apart from maybe that his Game 1 in the Finals might have been the greatest game ever played. If the logic is simply that Lebron becomes more resilient every year, then to me that should lead to a conclusion for 2020 as his peak: he won the title, he was the clear best player in the world, his passing was the best it had ever been, his defence was excellent throughout both the regular season and the postseason, and his “impact” numbers in both comfortably exceeded 2018’s. That logic about playoff preparedness also does not feel entirely unique Lebron either; would second threepeat Jordan not be capable of mentally dissecting opponents better than his younger self?

I am more skeptical that 2020 (or 2018) Lebron could improve upon 2016/17 Lebron than I am of the contrary. A question of whether either could improve upon the Miami years seems worth exploring, but for now I will side with prevailing wisdom.

1(c). 2012-13 Lebron James
(Could nitpick 2013 versus 2012 on a postseason basis, but personally, Colt’s analysis smoothed over some of those gripes.)

Analysis of the bigs is where this project becomes much more compelling. Next in line for me are Hakeem and then Kareem.

[ardee]

Some questions to ponder at this stage

Magic vs curry for "one way" offensive peaks: neither 87 magic nor 17 curry (temptative choices for both peaks) are particularly good on defense, both led a all time offense but magic arguably did it with less overall talent

For people bringing curry in their top 3 or top 5? What makes him better than magic?

And perhaps more hot take.....is he necesarilly better than peak nash? Nash also led a historical offense (multiple times) with no more offensive talent (arguably less) although his defense may be worse than curry?

I used to be pretty low on Curry's 2017 regular season but it's actually his best season by quite a margin by PI RAPM so combined with a very strong play-off run it's definitely a competitive peak. I think 87 Magic has slight edges in both the regular season and the play-offs but I'll probably have them really close.

Not being snarky I promise, but is that really the only metric that matters to you? How can anyone argue that 2016 wasn't his best regular season?

[No-more-rings]

Interesting and somewhat refreshing to see this many guys having Kareem and Shaq over Lebron’s peak. Lebron doesn’t even seem like a shoe-in for this spot which is even more interesting. Anyway i’ll be reading most of these threads although I won’t be able to participate. Started a new job recently and don’t really have the time anymore to make real long posts.

[LA Bird]

.

I want some of the people saying they think Curry was injured as an explanation for his bad performance to explain how it took him 39 days to recover from a grade 1 knee sprain and to find me an example of literally any other player that needed over a month to recover from a 2 week injury.

1. 2003 Duncan

I want to add this for Duncan since I'm going to speak on playoff RAPM later in my reasoning for Bill Russell -

Tim Duncan, despite having a super long career full of playoff performances that aren't in his peak level of play (2001-05 where Tim's RAPM over a 5 year period only trails Bron and KG and only barely) ranks 7th in playoff RAPM. His playoff RAPM is over every MVP since 98 aside from LeBron. I don't think there's really any number we can point to to show Duncan isn't the best player along with Bron and Shaq post MJ.

2. 2000 Shaq
3. 2001 Shaq

Spoiler:

1. 2003 Tim Duncan - I'll be voting not for for I think is the best player, instead I will be voting for who I think had the best seasons. I figure it'd make it much easier to have everyone graded on what they did, not what I think they'd be able to do. With that said the argument for Duncan over Shaq, LeBron, Jordan, Wilt, etc. falls into 3 different categories.

Competition/Cast:
2003 Duncan has individual player competition like non other. In 2003 there's zero argument that anyone was better than Duncan but what's also forgotten about 2003 is how many other players that could make this list peaked in 2003. The fact that Duncan was the clear best player in the league with so many other top 40ish (and a duo of top 10ish) peaks makes his body of work more impressive.

Shaquille O'Neal who is going to be getting 1st place votes for his play in 2000 and 2001 was still in his prime and close to his 2000 and 2001 level of play in 03. On it's own I think it would be a top 10 season here. In terms of his statistical performance his play was in line with his play during the threepeat. I'm not the biggest BPM fan but his highest postseason BPM ever came in 03. He also had his highest rTS% for any season he scored over 20 ppg in 2003. Looking at the advanced +/- numbers Shaq was 3rd in NPI RAPM and RAPM, and 2003 was in the middle of a stretch where Shaq was consistently top 3 in RAPM from 2001-2005.

Kevin Garnett also will be seeing votes in the top 10 for 2004 and 2003. He's the other player along with Duncan and Shaq filling out the top 3 in RAPM and having an amazing peak.

On the lower end of stars that were amazing in 2003 specifically we have the two SGs that will be looking to be voted in along with Jerry West, Stephen Curry, and D. Wade when we get into the teens/twenties, 2003 T-Mac (clearly his best season) and 2003 Kobe (arguably his best season).

Also did I forget to mention peak Jason Kidd (expect him towards the end of the list) and 2003 Dirk (leading a +7 offense for the 2nd year in a row)?

Duncan being above all these guys without much of a doubt is a testament to exactly how great he was. The other guys getting votes at this spot (91 MJ, 2013 LeBron, 2000 Shaq) didn't have 2nd best players as good as any of the top 5 players in 2003. I think 2013 KD and 91 Magic are closer to 2003 Dirk than 2003 KG.

Duncan also has the worst supporting cast of any champion getting a look this early. I don't think I need to do much convincing of that. The Spurs had a +9.1 net rating with Duncan on the court and a -5.6 without him. In the playoffs from 2001-2003 Duncan has the highest APM ever (Duncan and KG are the only players with top 50 APM peaks on both sides of the ball), highest raw on/off ever (+27.4), and if you look at Duncan's DAPM he's 2nd all time to Dikembe for his peak. By RAPM Duncan is right under LeBron, Shaq, and KG as the best 5 year peak ever (it's harder to go by single year with RAPM).

Looking at PIPM (probably the best all in one statistic for gauging impact - y'all know I'm not a big all in one fan but I know others respect it) 2003 Tim Duncan is 4th in PIPM Wins Added. 2016 Draymond, 2004 KG, and 2009 LeBron are the only players better. All 3 of those players famously didn't win a ring. For champions 2003 Duncan is #1 all time. 2000 Shaq is 2nd, 2013 LeBron is 3rd, 2016 LeBron is 4th, and 1991 MJ is 5th. Duncan also rates #1 all time in postseason AuPM per game. Now I don't think it's a coincidence these well respected all in one stats single out a top 3 similar to most of the top 3s I see in this thread (Bron, MJ, Shaq in some order) but including Duncan. He's not generally seen as on the same tier as these guys, maybe he should be.

Postseason Performance:
Duncan definitely has the most impressive postseason here. Even without the quad double being officially counted.

Duncan probably had the best defensive postseason ever (excluding Bill Russell). The Spurs had a -8.0 rDRTG in the playoffs that year led by Duncan. Duncan averaged 3.3 bpg that postseason and honestly probably directly affected at least another 2-3 plays a night (and he had 2 infamously unrecognized blocks). He was everywhere. For example I rewatched game 6 of the WCSF recently and Duncan had 2 blocks and 10 defensive rebounds on the box score, but he forced another 3 missed shots (2 jumpers, 1 at the rim) and 1 turnover.

In their first series against a great team they faced the defending 3 time champion Lakers. The Lakers were 50-32 so many think they fell off that year, but that's after a 26-25 start. They ended the season 24-7 and lost to the Spurs because of Duncan's defensive disruptiveness and his 28/12/5 on 57 TS% with only 2 TOVs a night. He followed that up with 28/17/6 with 3 TOVs a night on 60 TS% against the Mavs in the WCF. In the Finals Duncan broke the Finals block per game record with 32 blocks in 6 games (should've been at least 34). Overall he averaged 24/17/5 with 5 BPG against the Nets.

People might say his competition on a team level wasn't as strong as others but I think that's underrating the Lakers a lot. They're still a solid championship level squad in 03. Other than Rick Fox's injury I don't think they were weaker than the 02 Lakers. If anything with Devean George improving they were a bit better. The Mavs were down 2-1 with a healthy Dirk but I don't know how y'all would judge that as comp. Personally I see it as proof the Spurs probably would've still beat them at full strength but it's arguable. The Spurs also swept the Lakers in the regular season in 03 and from 99-04 they were 23-25 against LA overall so it's not like he wasn't used to beating LA.

Underrated Offense?:

I think offensively is where many think Tim falls short. In 2002 when the team was healthy the Spurs had a +4.4 offense. In 2001 they had a +3.6 offense. In 06 they had a +4.8 offense when healthy. In 07 they had a +4.1 offense. Duncan was able to be the key cog in a decent offense while also being the best defensive player in the league through most of his prime. In 03 he happened to have little help on the offensive end, but he still led a +2.0 offense (+2.6 in the playoffs).

For 3 year peaks when compared to Hakeem, Dirk, KG, Karl Malone, and Shaq in the postseason Duncan has the 2nd lowest scoring volume to KG but ranks 1st in scoring efficiency and 2nd to Hakeem in box creation (as provided by Elgee/TB).

In terms of adjusted scoring in 03 Duncan averaged 23.7 points per 75 on +4.5 rTS% (equal to 25.6 points per 75 on 61.1 TS% adjusted to 2022). He might've not been the highest volume scorer but his 25.5 AST% in the 03 run is higher than Giannis' in 2021 to compare it to the 2nd best PF season ever.

Overall I'm expecting to be the only Duncan vote for now, but I think he deserves serious consideration if we're talking the greatest single seasons of all time. He might or might not be better than Shaq, Jordan, and LeBron, but he certainly played like he was.

2. 2000 Shaquille O'Neal

The MDE. The clear best offensive player in the game and arguably top 5 defensively. The greatest part of this year was his consistency. He was only under 20 points 7 times that regular season, under 45% from the field 7 times, and the icing on the cake of this season was a 38/17 finals series (he averaged that while missing 9.5 FTs a game and having a game where he was 17/39 on FTs).

3. 2001 Shaq - When it comes to "perfect" seasons (seasons in which players were clearly the best player on the floor in almost every game played - let's say 90%) Hakeem, Jordan, Lebron, Wilt, etc. have them and usually I place them over a year like 2001 but on second thought maybe that was wrong. Shaq was half assing it this year. Defensively the Lakers ranked 21st and Shaq's on/off wasn't too hot on that end. There's no getting past that when discussing this season. Beyond that he was still the clear best offensive player in the league leading the Lakers to a +5.4 offense and when needed he became professional and absolutely obliterated teams now that he had another superstar in Kobe Bryant next to him.

At the end of the season Shaq decided to turn it on and averaged 34/13/4 on 63 TS% (122 ORTG) while going 9-1 (their one loss was by 1 point against the Knicks where Shaq had 31 points on 13 shots in 38 minutes while his team had 47 combined points on 30% shooting). Then in the playoffs they turned into the GOAT team next to the 2017 Warriors having a +21 net rating and going 15-1. In their one loss Shaq had 44 points, 20 rebounds (6 offensive), and 5 assists on 17/28 shooting against the DPOY and IMO the GOAT modern era defender. Overall Shaq had 20/10 in all but one of his last 33 games of the season (he had 19/14 against San Antonio in game 2). If 2000 Shaq is the most dominant season ever 2001 once Shaq gave a damn is what that same player would look like on a stacked team like the ones most of these guys we're mentioning outside of Duncan, Shaq, and Hakeem had.

4. 1962 Bill Russell - Another shocker from E-Balla I'm sure lol. As of late I've started to really care a lot more about defense in comparing individual players. Y'all all know I was always of the mindset that great offense > great defense for individual players but watching more basketball whether it's modern or old school hoops you start to realize if you can't defend at an elite level you can't contend. This Finals just saw the top 2 defensive teams playing each other in a defensive struggle even as the league tips the scales to the offense more than ever before.

I think postseason RAPM numbers also changed my mind on this. Seeing Draymond has a higher postseason RAPM than everyone else ever and that he consistently outperforms Steph in postseason +/- numbers even when he looks terrible on offense (like this year for example) really shifts your mindset. I've been rewatching a lot of old playoff games when I have the time and there's just a huge difference in how teams perform against top level offenses when they have ATG defenders on the floor and when they don't.

I guess being the quintessential "but how does player x do against elite defenses in the playoffs" guy for the last decade here was always leading me in this direction, but I've officially arrived in the defense > offense club lol.

Now to actually get into Bill Russell...

He's the best defender ever without a doubt. I don't think I need to explain to everyone how insane his defense was incredible but what made me choose 62 is his offense that year.

It's one of the 2 years his efficiency is above average after 1960, and his highest year by PPP after 1958. In the playoffs he averaged 22.4 PPG on 51.9 TS% which was good enough for him to rank 6th in PPG and 7th in TS%. In the Finals he averaged 22.9 PPG on 60 TS%. Down 3-2 Russell had a triple double in game 6 and 30/40 in game 7 to win the series. I've watched the parts of the game you can find recently and I think you all should, it's the last time an NBA Finals was decided in OT of a game 7. Russell had at least 4 blocks by my eyes but I wouldn't be shocked if IRL he doubled that.

[homecourtloss]

Concerns for Kareem: 1. postseason sample size in 1977. 2. How much did his regular season "coasting" enable his 1977 postseason success?


The argument against Kareem would be that his ridiculously efficient scoring in the 1977 postseason was a hot shooting streak (hot even for him), which wouldn't be sustainable in a larger postseason or if he didn't coast as much in the regular season.


Question: since Kareem played in a different era without the three point line, did he face more drives toward/near the rim? That might not change the fact that Kareem had a better rate of quality rotations / stops, but it might shrink his volume advantage go successful stops. Also: Did Kareem make fewer stops or quality rotations in the second half of the 70s vs the first half?

First of all, I wanted to mention that I appreciate your metrics based approach to player evaluation and the discussions and insights you bring to this board.

Thanks so much! I'm glad to hear

Secondly, this is the second time I’ve seen you refer to player “coasting” in the regular season enabling a playoff run. Do you have some objective evidence for saying Kareem coasted in 1977 or LeBron in 2016 (other time you mentioned it)? How is coasting measured? How does coasting help with limited playoff sample sizes? How do we know “coasting” helped the playoff run?

I don’t see the argument for either “coasting.” LeBron was the Cavs’ defensive anchor in 2016 on a team that had few plus defenders; everyone knows about his post season defense but his regular season defense was phenomenal as well. How does a player “coast” and manage to do that?

What do I mean by "coasting"? There's a pattern some all-time players show as they get older. They have their best regular seasons (statistically, defensively, in terms of defense, etc.) when they're younger. When they get older, they get slightly worse by these metrics in the regular season. Yet in the playoffs, they show greater improvements vs their regular season selves, and sometimes even improve over their younger playoff selves. There's evidence that this happened with older Kareem, older LeBron, older Jordan (though I don't think his 2nd threepeat playoff improvements are enough to take 98 Jordan over 91), Shaq (e.g. 2001), Kawhi, Curry (e.g. 2022), etc.

What causes this? There's a few possiblilities. For example, 1. Players have a higher motor when they're younger. This motor declines as they get older. This decline most often shows up in worse defensive performances (or less consistent defensive effort) relative to their younger selves, at least in the regular season. 2. Certainly as players get older, they gain experience and versatility which allows them to improve more. 3. Players may even intentionally decide not to go 100% in the regular season as they get older, to decrease injury risk, limit wear and tear, improve longevity, and save up their motor to reach that higher gear in the playoffs.

Evidence in support of coasting:
Both Kareem and LeBron had media articles and stories about their declining defensive effort in the regular season as they got older. There's also statistical evidence...
Ai. 2016 LeBron (regular season -> playoffs): +1.6 in AuPM, +3.5 in Backpicks BPM, improvements in Basketball Reference's BPM, improvements in WS/48, and I believe improved in RAPM/PIPM. These are noticeable improvements in almost all metrics. 2016 LeBron's regular season was below his earlier regular season performances in most of these metrics (compared to 2009, 2012, 2013), but his 2016 playoffs >> 2016 regular season, and his 2016 playoffs may be > 2009/2012/2013 playoffs.
Aii. 2016 Cavs (regular season -> playoffs): +6.93 offensive rating improvement, 1.92 defensive rating improvement, and +5.84 SRS improvement (5th all time) . So the improvements from the regular season to the playoffs by LeBron (and possibly others) does make a difference in team performance. (source: Sansterre's Top 100 Teams)
B. 1977 Kareem (regular season -> playoffs): significantly improved in Backpicks BPM, Basketball Reference's BPM, WS/48, etc. Again, 1977 Kareem's regular season was below some of his earlier regular seasons in these metrics, but his 1977 playoffs is clearly his best.

Why does this matter? Well, it becomes a question of each player's value, and what we value in our GOAT peaks. If 2016 LeBron and 1977 Kareem performed at their playoff level throughout the entire regular season (and if the metics showed this), I think we'd be almost universally taking those seasons as their peaks... and those peaks would have greater arguments against their peers. But they didn't... so instead we're debating 2016 vs 2009/2012/2013, and we're debating 1977 vs 1974/1971 (and vs 2000 Shaq).

That doesn't mean 2016 LeBron or 1977 Kareem had bad regular seasons. Like you say, Kareem still squeezed out 53 wins from a sub-optimal roster and 2016 LeBron was still his team's best defensive player. But they were worse relative to the heights they reached in the same playoffs, and in earlier regular seasons. Worse regular season performances do decrease value (even if you really don't value the regular season, a worse regular season performance -> likely a lower seed -> harder playoff route -> thus lower championship odds).
So, Question 1 is: how much worse were these players in the regular season, and how much value does this take away from them?
Question 2 is: does this regular season coasting enable their playoff improvements, and does that matter? There's an argument that much of the improvement comes from their improved experience. But you could also argue that, as these players get older and their motor wanes, they actually need to coast a bit to enable these higher-motor, higher-value, lofty playoff performances. If this is the case, then if these players were to try more in the regular season to limit their regular season disadvantage (e.g. if Lebron were to limit his 2016 regular season disadvantage vs 2009 or 2013, or if 77 Kareem were to limit his disadvantage vs 1974/1971 Kareem or 2000 Shaq), then they'd be losing the energy/motor to perform well in the playoffs and thus limit the advantage they have in the post season.

Thank you for your thoughtful answer. I wanted to concentrate on the two bolded portions and when I have time to Kareem’s section.

In the first Bolded, you mention about motor and younger players with a greater motor, and while someone like 2009 had an incredible motor, 2016 regular season LeBron had one of the most impressive regular season defensive synergy numbers by any player let alone a primary offense creator over the age of 30. If he were coasting, how would he generate these insane numbers?

Top 12% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 3% in defending hand offs
Top 16% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 15% in defending off of screens
Top 7% in defending in ISO
Top 27% in post up defense
Top 13% in spot up defense

This was LeBron at 31 and approaching 50,000 minutes. He was charged with being his team’s entire defensive system in addition to being the best scorer, creator, and often times, rim protector.

2016 LeBron. He should have been a defensive player of the year candidate while leading his team’s defense for at least 8-9 years in row, but wasn’t even considered.

ISO defense

LeBron: .59 points per possession (PPP), 93rd percentile
Draymond: .68, 85th percentile
Kawhi: .69 PPP, 83rd percentile

Pick and roll ball handler

Kawhi: .65 PPP, 90th percentile
LeBron: .66 PPP, 88th percentile
Draymond: .88, 71st percentile

Pick and roll roll man

Kawhi: .50 PPP, 98th percentile
LeBron: .70 PPP, 84th percentile
Draymond: .77 PPP, 75th percentile

Post defense

Draymond: .65 PPP, 89th percentile
LeBron: .77 PPP, 73rd percentile
Kawhi: .77 PPP, 71st percentile (numbers are rounded so James might have been at .772 and Kawhi at .768 or something)

Spot up defense

LeBron: .80 PPP, 87th percentile
Kawhi: .88 PPP, 75th percentile
Draymond: .91 PPP, 66th percentile

Off screens defense

Draymond: .45 PPP, 98th percentile
LeBron: .74PPP, 85th percentile
Kawhi: 1.05 PPP, 31st percentile

Hand offs defense

LeBron: .49 97th percentile
Kawhi: .72 PPP, 78th percentile
Draymond: .91 PPP, 43rd percentile

No data available for transition defense, defense on cuts, and defense on offensive rebound out backs. In his thirteenth season playing on a team that's otherwise not that good defensively, James quietly out together a great, great defensive season because he had to since his team really had maybe three other plus defenders. Unlike Kawhi and Draymond who were subpar in some categories, James was at worst in the 73rd percentile.

The argument, “well, LeBron didn’t match up against the opposition’s best scorers doesn’t really hold water because look at the overall FG% of Dray’s, Kawhi’s, and LeBron’s opposition.

Players Draymond defended: 45.5%
Players Kawhi defended: 44.8%
Players LeBron defunded: 44.7%

Draymond Green:

Overall: 39.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 45.5%, -6.1%
Threes: 29.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.6%, -5.1%
Twos: 42.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 49.2%, -6.3%
<6ft: 51.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 60.6%, -8.7%

Kawhi

Overall: 39.2 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 44.8%, -5.6%
Threes: 33.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.9, -1.2%
Twos: 41.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 48.8%, -7.2%
<6ft: 53.5 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 60.5%, -7.0%

LeBron:

Overall: 37.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 44.7%, -7.3%
Threes: 32.1 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.6%, -2.6%
Twos: 40.8 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 49.0%, -8.2%
<6ft: 48.6 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 59.9%, -11.3%

Some others:

PG13 2019

Top 5% in post up defense
Top 12% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 13% in defending in ISO
Top 19% in spot up defense
Top 23% in defending hand offs
Bottom 16% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Bottom 27% in defending off of screens

Kawhi 2019

Top 5% in defending hand offs
Top 5% in defending in ISO
Top 24% in spot up defense
Top 32% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
NO DATA (didn’t defend at least 10times) in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Bottom 44 in post up defense
Bottom 34% in defending off of screens

Kawhi 2020

Top 6% in spot up defense
Top 11% in defending in ISO
Top 17% in defending hand offs
Top 27% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 35% in defending off of screens
Bottom 29% in post up defense
Bottom 9% in defending the pick and roll man

Kawhi, 2016

Top 2% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 10% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 17% in defending in ISO
Top 22% in defending hand offs
Top 25% in spot up defense
Top 29% in post up defense
Bottom 31% in defending off of screens

Kawhi, 2017

Top 19% in post up defense
Top 28% in defending hand offs
Top 32% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 50% in defending off of screens
Bottom 45% in spot up defense
Bottom 44% in defending in ISO
Bottom 14% in defending the roll man in pick and roll

Giannis 2019

Top 30% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 44% in defending hand offs
Top 44% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Bottom 32% in defending off of screens
Top 17% in defending in ISO
Top 7% in post up defense
Top 23% in spot up defense

Giannis 2020

Top 2% in defending in ISO
Top 7% in post up defense
Top 12% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 17% in defending hand offs
Top 44%in spot up defense
Top 50% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Bottom 9% in defending off of screens

Draymond 2019

Top 15% in defending off of screens
Top 17% in post up defense
Top 25% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 29% in defending hand offs
Top 52% in defending in ISO
Bottom 38% in spot up defense
Bottom 33% in defending the pick and roll ball handler

Draymond, 2017

Top 11% in spot up defense
Top 14% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 15% in defending in ISO
Top 18% in post up defense
Top 31% in defending off of screens
Top 37% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 49% in defending hand offs

Siakam, 2019

Top 34% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 15% in defending hand offs
Top 10% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Bottom 35% in defending off of screens
Top 30% in defending in ISO
Top 19% in post up defense
Top 16% in spot up defense

Roberson, 2018

Top 16% in post up defense
Top 17% in spot up defense
Top 17% in defending hand off
Top 27% in defending off of screens
Top 34% in defending in ISO
Top 42% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Bottom 46% in defending the roll man in pick and roll

RoCo, 2018

Top 18% in defending in ISO
Top 34% in defending hand offs
Top 44% in spot up defense
Bottom 42% in defending off of screens
Bottom 49% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Bottom 14% in post up defense
Bottom 13% in defending the roll man in pick and roll


In the second bolded, I see what you’re saying but how do we know a suppposed coasting led to over-performance in the playoffs. David Griffin talk to little bit about the 2016 team in mentioned how they were not able to play the way they could in the playoffs because they didn’t have the defensive personnel to play at full throttle every game. Now, it could be said that well LeBron is part of that now playing the full throttle but when you look at his synergy stats, they show that he was going hard. That team was built specifically for the playoffs as Griffin mentioned knowing that a day off between every game at least allows them to gear up for an all out effort each game. I find it very difficult to believe that that bump in the 2016 playoffs had anything to do with any supposed coasting.